01Daily Summary

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

West Texas Intermediate crude surged 9.32% to $79.20, the day's clearest move, as geopolitical tension around Iran lifted energy and pushed gold to $4,050.60. Yet equities barely flinched: the S&P 500 slipped 0.19% to 7,443 while Bitcoin held near $65,496 with $226.8 million in spot ETF inflows over 24 hours. The contradiction is the story. Credit spreads are tight, financing windows are open, but crypto sentiment sits at Extreme Fear (25) and equity Fear and Greed registers 37.6, signalling that confidence in the rally is thin.

S&P 500−0.19%NASDAQ−0.05%US10Y−2 bpWTI+9.32%Gold+0.86%BTC+0.43%ETH+1.05%DXY+0.02%VIX−0.64%

Driver:Iran-US tensions drove WTI crude up 9.32% to $79.20, lifting gold 0.86% and silver 1.83% simultaneously.
Cross-asset:Equities flat to slightly lower; crypto marginally positive; the US 30-year yield holds at 5.06%; DXY barely moved; commodities led.
Bonds & rates:US 30-year at 5.06%; 2s10s spread 37 basis points; 10-year real yield 2.31%; 10-year breakeven 2.25%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) 273 bp; IPOR DAI rate 5.88%.
Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 25 (Extreme Fear); equity Fear and Greed 37.6; VIX 18.65; news sentiment bearish at -14; Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.47.
Forward bias:UK CPI and unemployment due July 22; Japan trade balance tonight. A de-escalation on Iran-US tensions would be the clearest regime-flip catalyst toward Risk-On.

02Macro Snapshot

Mixed signals

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

Benchmark Rates	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Fed Ratei	3.50 – 3.75 %	unchanged	17 Jun 2026	29 Jul 2026	Fed funds at 3.50-3.75 percent keeps borrowing costs elevated for risk assets.
ECB Ratei	2.25 %	+25 bp	11 Jun 2026	23 Jul 2026	ECB rate hike to 2.25 percent pressures European risk assets and lifts rates.
BoJ Ratei	1.00 %	+25 bp	16 Jun 2026	31 Jul 2026	BoJ rate at 1.00 percent maintains attractive JPY carry trade for global risk.
SOFRi	3.59 %	−3 bp	daily	tomorrow	SOFR at 3.59 percent falling three basis points signals looser short-end funding.
IPOR USDCi	3.66 %	+7 bp	real-time	—	USDC IPOR at 3.66 percent above SOFR shows strong onchain USD leverage demand.
IPOR WETHi	1.64 %	+0 bp	real-time	—	WETH IPOR at 1.64 percent indicates cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei	2.21 %	—	real-time	—	ETH staking yield at 2.21 percent reflects steady validator demand and fee revenue.

US Inflation	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
TruCPI-US (headline)i	2.06 %	+0.03 pp	daily	tomorrow	Truflation at 2.06 percent runs cooler than official CPI and points lower.
CPI YoY (headline)i	3.5 %	−0.7 pp	14 Jul 2026	12 Aug 2026	Headline CPI at 3.5 percent keeps the Fed cautious on further rate cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i	2.6 %	−0.3 pp	14 Jul 2026	12 Aug 2026	Core CPI at 2.6 percent shows persistent inflation above the Fed target.
PCE YoY (headline)i	4.1 %	+0.3 pp	25 Jun 2026	30 Jul 2026	Headline PCE at 4.1 percent remains well above the Fed two percent target.
PCE YoY (core)i	3.4 %	+0.1 pp	25 Jun 2026	30 Jul 2026	Core PCE at 3.4 percent stays sticky far above the two percent target.
PPI YoY (headline)i	5.5 %	−0.5 pp	15 Jul 2026	13 Aug 2026	Producer prices at 5.5 percent signal upstream inflation that may feed into CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i	4.7 %	+0.1 pp	15 Jul 2026	13 Aug 2026	Core PPI at 4.7 percent shows persistent upstream pressures wider than core CPI.

Euro Area Inflationi	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Euro Area	2.7 %	−0.4 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Euro area HICP at 2.7 percent keeps the ECB on a cautious rate path.
Romania	9.2 %	−0.5 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Romania HICP at 9.2 percent remains the EU's hottest due to fiscal factors.
Bulgaria	5.2 %	−1.0 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Bulgaria HICP at 5.2 percent reflects post-euro convergence pressures in the bloc.
Poland	3.0 %	−0.4 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Poland HICP at 3.0 percent sits above target supporting a cautious central bank.
Germany	2.4 %	−0.3 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Germany HICP at 2.4 percent anchors the euro area average near target.
France	2.0 %	−0.8 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	France HICP at 2.0 percent sits exactly at the ECB target.

Labor	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m)	158.98 M jobs	+57 k	2 Jul 2026	7 Aug 2026	Nonfarm payrolls rose only 57 thousand signaling labor market cooling.
Unemployment Ratei	4.2 %	−0.1 pp	2 Jul 2026	7 Aug 2026	Unemployment at 4.2 percent adds slack and supports Fed rate cuts.

Activity	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY)	+1.1 %	−0.4 pp	17 Jul 2026	18 Aug 2026	Industrial production up 1.1 percent
Retail Salesi (m/m)	+0.2 %	−0.8 pp	16 Jul 2026	14 Aug 2026	Retail sales rose 0.2 percent showing modest consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi	53.3	+0.6	June 2026	—
ISM Services PMIi	54.0	+0.4	June 2026	—

Yield Curve	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi	37 bp	—	daily	tomorrow	Positive curve. Recession odds receding.

Sentiment	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity)	38 (Fear)	unchanged	daily	tomorrow
Crypto Fear & Greedi	25 (Extreme Fear)	−4	daily	tomorrow
News Sentimenti	−14 (Fear)	−12	every 30 min	—

03News Sentiment

Fear

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −46 to +54 · current −14 (Fear) · −12 24h

7 days ago today

Direction

bull 26% bear 74% ± 11% uncertainty

Coverage

macro 55% crypto 28% mixed 17%

What's driving today's news sentiment Top 1 · sorted by impact

−8 Neutral short-term

Palm oil declines after crude price weakness dampens biofuel demand

Palm oil prices fell from near one-month highs due to weak crude and vegetable oil prices, reducing biofuel market appeal and signaling moderate commodity softness.

bloomberg.comconf 60% Market-Wide

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bullish

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

Tech is split today: 6 of 9 names in the green, but the two biggest drags are notable. Tesla is off 2.96% and Apple is down 2.14%, while Microsoft leads the upside at +2.15% with Intel close behind at +2.13%. Nvidia and Meta Platforms are effectively flat, leaving the cohort's net tone modestly constructive but far from uniform.

AAPLApple

$326.59−2.14%

1D Range $323.70 — $333.71

1M Range $275.15 — $333.74

P/E TTMi39.2 P/E Fwdi33.8 50-DMAi+7.9% 200-DMAi+19.1% RSI(14)i64 YTDi+20.5% % from ATHi−2.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.04

MSFTMicrosoft

$402.29+2.15%

1D Range $389.67 — $403.18

1M Range $352.83 — $402.29

P/E TTMi23.9 P/E Fwdi20.7 50-DMAi+0.2% 200-DMAi−8.4% RSI(14)i56 YTDi−14.9% % from ATHi−27.6% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.47

GOOGLAlphabet

$351.99+1.51%

1D Range $350.52 — $359.67

1M Range $337.39 — $370.92

P/E TTMi26.6 P/E Fwdi23.7 50-DMAi−5.0% 200-DMAi+9.4% RSI(14)i46 YTDi+11.7% % from ATHi−13.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.27

AMZNAmazon

$249.99+1.12%

1D Range $248.12 — $252.89

1M Range $227.01 — $254.96

P/E TTMi29.6 P/E Fwdi24.8 50-DMAi−0.8% 200-DMAi+6.8% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+10.4% % from ATHi−10.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.59

NVDANVIDIA

$203.28+0.23%

1D Range $202.28 — $207.74

1M Range $192.53 — $212.50

P/E TTMi30.9 P/E Fwdi22.6 50-DMAi−3.2% 200-DMAi+5.7% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+7.6% % from ATHi−14.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.07

METAMeta Platforms

$645.85−0.02%

1D Range $636.01 — $653.30

1M Range $542.87 — $681.31

P/E TTMi23.2 P/E Fwdi18.5 50-DMAi+6.8% 200-DMAi+0.8% RSI(14)i57 YTDi−0.7% % from ATHi−18.9% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.02

TSLATesla

$369.57−2.96%

1D Range $369.43 — $386.49

1M Range $369.57 — $425.30

P/E TTMi308.4 P/E Fwdi151.1 50-DMAi−9.8% 200-DMAi−11.4% RSI(14)i39 YTDi−15.6% % from ATHi−25.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.46

INTCIntel

$97.06+2.13%

1D Range $96.92 — $100.98

1M Range $95.04 — $140.94

P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi59.9 50-DMAi−17.2% 200-DMAi+51.3% RSI(14)i38 YTDi+146.5% % from ATHi−31.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.27

AMDAMD

$503.57+1.58%

1D Range $502.36 — $522.44

1M Range $495.76 — $580.91

P/E TTMi164.0 P/E Fwdi37.2 50-DMAi+0.9% 200-DMAi+69.7% RSI(14)i48 YTDi+125.3% % from ATHi−13.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.23

04.2Recent IPOs

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

SPCXSpaceX

IPO'd 12 Jun 2026

$119.85−3.34%

1D Range $119.69 — $125.70

1M Range $119.85 — $185.00

Mkt Capi$1.57T IPO-day Vali$2.10T IPO-to-Datei−25.5% Floati365.9M · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a P/E FwdiFY27E · 222x RSI(14)i34% from ATHi−46.9%

04.3Indices

Bearishi

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

US large-caps are drifting lower on light losses: the S&P 500 is off 0.19%, the Dow 0.59%, and the Russell 2000 0.67%, while the Nasdaq holds near flat at -0.05% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) is the lone gainer at +0.45%. Notably, the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) is outperforming the cap-weighted index YTD by 1.62 percentage points (+10.14% vs +8.53%), meaning breadth is actually broader than the headline index implies and Mag7 concentration is not the dominant driver today. VIX sits at 18.65, down fractionally, while MOVE is up nearly 4% to 70.88, flagging some bond-market unease. Internationally, the Nikkei is the standout with a 2.83% gain; European and global benchmarks are modestly in the red.

US Equity Benchmarks

SPXS&P 500

7,443.28−0.19%

1D Range 7,440.53 — 7,513.23

1M Range 7,354.03 — 7,575.39

50-DMAi−0.3% 200-DMAi+6.5% RSI(14)i47 YTDi+8.5% % from ATHi−2.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.63

IXICNasdaq Comp.

25,508.07−0.05%

1D Range 25,501.10 — 25,815.60

1M Range 25,297.62 — 26,517.93

50-DMAi−2.4% 200-DMAi+6.8% RSI(14)i44 YTDi+9.8% % from ATHi−6.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.45

DJIDow Jones Ind.

51,839.26−0.59%

1D Range 51,781.90 — 52,411.90

1M Range 51,564.71 — 53,055.91

50-DMAi+1.2% 200-DMAi+6.3% RSI(14)i48 YTDi+7.1% % from ATHi−2.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.56

RUTRussell 2000

2,942.43−0.67%

1D Range 2,942.33 — 2,978.09

1M Range 2,942.43 — 3,024.37

50-DMAi+0.7% 200-DMAi+10.9% RSI(14)i47 YTDi+17.3% % from ATHi−3.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.67

SOXXSemiconductors

524.14+0.45%

1D Range 522.89 — 539.53

1M Range 521.81 — 655.01

50-DMAi−7.5% 200-DMAi+34.1% RSI(14)i42 YTDi+67.1% % from ATHi−20.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.08

Risk & Breadth Gauges

RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt

212.42−0.45%

1D Range 212.11 — 214.00

1M Range 208.89 — 215.06

50-DMAi+1.5% 200-DMAi+7.1% RSI(14)i52 YTDi+10.1% vs SPX YTDi+1.6pp Cap-weight sharei-19%

VIXiVolatility Idx

18.65−0.64%

1D Range 18.65 — 18.90

1M Range 15.03 — 19.49

50-DMAi+7.7% 200-DMAi−0.2% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+28.5%

MOVEiMOVE Index

70.88+3.99%

5D Range 68.16 — 77.77

1M Range 65.39 — 77.77

50-DMAi−1.5% 200-DMAi−1.7% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+13.7%

DXYTrade-Wt. USD

113.49+0.02%

5D Range 113.47 — 114.04

1M Range 112.57 — 114.67

50-DMAi+0.7% 200-DMAi+1.5% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+2.1%

World Markets

FTSEFTSE 100

10,524.76−0.71%

1D Range 10,512.76 — 10,600.27

1M Range 10,428.85 — 10,679.03

50-DMAi+0.9% 200-DMAi+3.7% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+5.8% % from ATHi−3.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.47

N225Nikkei 225

65,958.88+2.83%

1D Range 64,203.47 — 66,031.92

1M Range 64,141.12 — 72,366.34

50-DMAi−1.1% 200-DMAi+17.5% RSI(14)i45 YTDi+27.2% % from ATHi−9.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.05

HSIHang Seng

25,134.00−0.04%

1D Range 24,977.00 — 25,242.00

1M Range 22,671.87 — 25,143.06

50-DMAi+1.5% 200-DMAi−2.6% RSI(14)i61 YTDi−4.6% % from ATHi−10.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.31

Global Equity Baskets

URTHMSCI World

201.10−0.40%

1D Range 201.00 — 202.83

1M Range 197.36 — 204.75

50-DMAi−0.5% 200-DMAi+5.6% RSI(14)i47 YTDi+7.8% % from ATHi−2.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.51

EEMMSCI Emerging

63.56+0.43%

1D Range 63.48 — 64.17

1M Range 63.29 — 71.21

50-DMAi−5.3% 200-DMAi+6.3% RSI(14)i40 YTDi+13.0% % from ATHi−10.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.30

Valuations

CAPE 10iShiller P/E

40.6Overvalued

−0.17% today

Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−8.0%

Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)

28.6Overvalued

−0.17% today

Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)

Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP

218.1Overvalued

Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.6%

Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst

Energy+0.50%

Telecom+0.10%

Materials−0.45%

Financials−0.49%

Staples−0.59%

Real Estate−0.95%

Healthcare−1.07%

Tech−1.10%

Discretionary−1.23%

Utilities−1.47%

Industrials−1.85%

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

Bid

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

The curve is bull-flattening at the long end: the 2-year yield ticked up 2 basis points to 4.18% while the 10-year fell 2 bp to 4.55% and the 30-year dropped 3 bp to 5.06%, compressing the 2s10s spread to +37 bp. Real rates eased slightly, with the 10-year TIPS yield down 4 bp to 2.31%, while the 10-year breakeven edged up 1 bp to 2.25%, suggesting the modest duration rally is being driven by real-rate relief rather than inflation repricing. Credit spreads are marginally wider on the day, with high-yield OAS at 273 bp (+2 bp) and investment-grade OAS at 79 bp (+1 bp), a small but consistent risk-off lean rather than a stress signal.

US2YiTreasury 2Y

4.18%+2 bp

5D Range 4.13 — 4.26

1M Range 4.07 — 4.26

5-day Δ−3 bp YTD Δ+71 bp

US10YiTreasury 10Y

4.55%−2 bp

5D Range 4.55 — 4.62

1M Range 4.38 — 4.62

10–2 spread+37 bp YTD Δ+36 bp

US30YiTreasury 30Y

5.06%−3 bp

5D Range 5.06 — 5.10

1M Range 4.86 — 5.10

5-day Δ0 bp YTD Δ+20 bp

Fiscal

US Debt & Servicing

Total Public Debti

$39.58T +$63.0B (1d)

+8.0% YoY

Annual Interest (gross)i

$1.35T +11.4% YoY

gross · avg rate 3.41%

Rate & Rollover Risk

Wtd Avg Rate on Debti

3.41% +0.10pp YoY

on total interest-bearing debt

Maturing < 1 Yeari

25.6%

~$10.15T · refinancing-risk gauge

Macro Bond

Real Rates & Credit

Real Rates & Inflation Expectations

10Y TIPS Reali

2.31% −4 bp

10Y nominal − inflation expectations

10Y Breakeveni

2.25% +1 bp

market-implied 10Y CPI

Credit Spreads

HY OASi

2.73% +2 bp

ICE BofA US HY

IG OASi

0.79% +1 bp

tight · late-cycle

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Heating

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

Truflation's daily read sits at 2.06% year-over-year, up 20 basis points over the past month and trending warmer, with transport contributing the largest single driver at +0.74 percentage points to the headline. The 1.47-percentage-point gap below the official BLS CPI print of 3.5% reflects the lead-lag nature of the daily series, which tends to front-run the monthly release.

2.06%

Daily +0.03 pp

1-mo +0.20 pp

1-yr −0.01 pp

Daily Data By

About the number

Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.

Truflation data as of 2026-07-20

vs BLS CPI official 3.5% (Jun 2026, monthly · lagged) −1.47 ppbelow official print next BLS CPI: 12 Aug 2026

Index Components

12 basket categories · sorted by weight

Category	Inflation (YoY)i	Contributioni	Trend (1-mo)i
Housing 23.1% of basket	+0.12%	+0.03 pp	Flat +0.01 pp
Transport 19.8% of basket	+3.74%	+0.74 pp	Heating +0.06 pp
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages 15.2% of basket	+2.04%	+0.31 pp	Heating +1.57 pp
Health 8.8% of basket	+0.69%	+0.06 pp	Cooling −0.30 pp
Household Durables & Daily Use Items 7.1% of basket	+3.41%	+0.24 pp	Heating +0.05 pp
Utilities 6.0% of basket	+3.19%	+0.19 pp	Heating +0.35 pp
Recreation & Culture 5.5% of basket	+2.83%	+0.16 pp	Heating +0.14 pp
Clothing & Footwear 3.8% of basket	+5.12%	+0.19 pp	Cooling −0.50 pp
Other 3.4% of basket	+3.14%	+0.11 pp	Flat −0.02 pp
Communications 3.3% of basket	-2.47%	−0.08 pp	Cooling −2.42 pp
Education 2.3% of basket	+2.69%	+0.06 pp	Cooling −0.77 pp
Alcohol & Tobacco 1.8% of basket	+5.01%	+0.09 pp	Heating +0.96 pp

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Bid

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

The JGB curve is steeply upward-sloping: the 2-year yield stands at 1.44%, the 10-year at 2.71% (essentially unchanged on the day), and the 30-year at 3.89%, producing a 2s10s spread of 128 basis points. With the Bank of Japan policy rate at 1.00%, the 2-year JGB is trading 44 bp above the policy rate, reflecting term premium rather than near-term rate-hike pricing, and the wide curve steepness keeps the yen carry trade's funding-cost dynamics elevated across the duration stack.

JP2YiJGB 2Y

1.44%−0 bp

5D Range 1.44 — 1.45

1M Range 1.38 — 1.45

5-day Δ+0 bp YTD Δ+24 bp

JP10YiJGB 10Y

2.71%−0 bp

5D Range 2.70 — 2.79

1M Range 2.61 — 2.87

10–2 spread+128 bp YTD Δ+60 bp

JP30YiJGB 30Y

3.89%+3 bp

5D Range 3.79 — 3.92

1M Range 3.76 — 4.01

5-day Δ−4 bp YTD Δ+50 bp

04.7Commodities

Bullish

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy is the dominant story today, with WTI crude and Brent surging 9.32% and 9.79% respectively and natural gas adding 3.66% - a broad-based energy spike that will feed directly into transport and input-cost readings. Precious metals are also bid, with Gold (XAU) up 0.86% to $4,050.6 and Silver up 1.83% to $58.115, extending their recent run.

CLWTI Crude

$79.20+9.32%

5D Range $71.53 — $79.20

1M Range $69.60 — $91.58

50-DMAi−12.2% 200-DMAi+4.9% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+38.4%

COBrent

$81.62+9.79%

5D Range $71.78 — $81.62

1M Range $68.53 — $84.36

50-DMAi−10.7% 200-DMAi+0.3% RSI(14)i53 YTDi+31.7%

NGNatural Gas

$2.83+3.66%

5D Range $2.73 — $3.17

1M Range $2.73 — $3.34

50-DMAi−7.2% 200-DMAi−23.9% RSI(14)i38 YTDi+0.4%

XAUGold

$4,050.60+0.86%

5D Range $4,003.30 — $4,057.20

1M Range $3,992.10 — $4,209.00

50-DMAi−4.8% 200-DMAi−11.9% RSI(14)i44 YTDi−7.7%

XAGSilver

$58.12+1.83%

5D Range $56.38 — $58.19

1M Range $56.19 — $63.52

50-DMAi−15.2% 200-DMAi−16.8% RSI(14)i41 YTDi−20.2%

04.8Crypto Assets

Bullish

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

Bitcoin is holding near $65,495.98, up 0.43% on the day, while Ethereum leads the majors with a 1.05% gain to $1,923.42 and Solana adds 0.45% to $78.14. Total crypto market cap is up 1.40% over 24 hours and DeFi total value locked rose 1.03%, suggesting broad participation rather than a single-asset move. Spot ETF flows are constructive, with BTC pulling $227M and ETH $38M in the latest session. The signal is genuinely mixed at the sentiment layer: perpetual funding rates are positive (BTC at +7.97% APR, ETH at +6.07% APR), indicating net long bias in derivatives, yet the Fear and Greed Index sits at 25 (Extreme Fear), a disconnect worth watching. BTC dominance at 56.5% shows capital remains concentrated in the flagship asset.

BTCBitcoin

$65,495.98+0.43%

1D Range $65,138.83 — $65,695.50

1M Range $58,523.93 — $65,462.31

50-DMAi+3.4% 200-DMAi−10.3% 200-WMAi($63,328.03) +3.4% RSI(14)i58 % from ATHi−48.0% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.29

ETHEthereum

$1,923.42+1.05%

1D Range $1,901.27 — $1,929.84

1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,922.78

50-DMAi+10.9% 200-DMAi−11.9% 200-WMAi($2,478.47) −22.4% RSI(14)i64 % from ATHi−60.6% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.20

SOLSolana

$78.14+0.45%

1D Range $77.69 — $78.36

1M Range $67.61 — $82.28

50-DMAi+6.5% 200-DMAi−13.3% 200-WMAi($107.79) −27.5% RSI(14)i55 % from ATHi−73.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.48

ENAEthena

$0.0848+5.98%

1D Range $0.0786 — $0.0848

1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0910

50-DMAi+6.0% 200-DMAi−29.3% RSI(14)i56 % from ATHi−94.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.64

HYPEHyperliquid

$62.83+0.61%

1D Range $62.30 — $62.91

1M Range $59.71 — $71.29

50-DMAi−3.8% 200-DMAi+44.0% RSI(14)i47 % from ATHi−16.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.17

PUMPPump.fun

$0.002041+4.31%

1D Range $0.001914 — $0.002084

1M Range $0.001197 — $0.002041

50-DMAi+36.1% 200-DMAi+7.4% RSI(14)i72 % from ATHi−76.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.11

Crypto Market

Macro Indicators

Market Caps & Dominance

BTC Mcapi

$1.31T +0.43%

56.5% of total

ETH Mcap

$232.1B +1.05%

10.0% of total

Stablecoin Mcap

$308.4B −0.05%

circulating supply

Total Crypto Mcap

$2.32T +1.40%

global market cap

Trading Volumes (24h)

CEX Volume (spot)

$72.0B +6.53%

24h · CoinGecko aggregate

DEX Volume (spot)

$7.6B +39.17%

24h · DefiLlama all chains

CEX Volume (perp)

$236.0B +1.09%

24h · derivatives exchanges

Hyperliquid (perp)

$4.3B +5.65%

24h · 230+ markets

DeFi Activity

Global DeFi TVL

$76.4B +1.03%

all chains

Lending TVL

$40.4B +1.07%

money markets

DEX TVL

$11.5B +0.43%

liquidity pools

ETH Staking APR

2.21%

Lido stETH base rate

Leverage & Sentiment

BTC Fundingi

+7.97% APR longs pay

8h · Binance perp

ETH Fundingi

+6.07% APR longs pay

8h · Binance perp

BTC L/S Ratioi

1.47 large traders long

1.47× longs vs shorts

Crypto F&Gi

25 Extreme Fear

Δ −4 vs yesterday · 0-100

IPOR Rates

USDCi

3.66% +0.07 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.93%

USDTi

3.18% −0.41 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.13%

DAIi

5.88% +2.29 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 5.09%

WETHi

1.64% +0.00 pp vs avg

24h avg 1.64%

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Accumulating

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

Corporate and institutional treasury holdings are substantial across the three major assets: 1,285,045 BTC (6.12% of supply, roughly $84.1B), 7,779,569 ETH (6.45% of supply, roughly $15.0B), and 19,340,975 SOL (3.32% of supply, roughly $1.5B). Spot ETF flows on the latest day were positive across the board at BTC +$227M, ETH +$38M, and SOL +$3M, and the 7-day totals confirm the trend is sustained rather than a one-day blip (BTC +$727M, ETH +$159M over the week).

Asset	Total Held	USD Value	% of Supply	Top Public Holders
₿ Bitcoin BTC	1.29 M BTC	$84.1 B	6.12%	Strategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ Ethereum ETH	7.78 M ETH	$15.0 B	6.45%	BitMine Immersion 5.77M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎ Solana SOL	19.34 M SOL	$1.5 B	3.32%	Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M

Public-company treasuries3 assets

₿BitcoinBTC

$84.1 B

1.29 M BTC

% of supply6.12%

Top public holdersStrategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k

ΞEthereumETH

$15.0 B

7.78 M ETH

% of supply6.45%

Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.77M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k

◎SolanaSOL

$1.5 B

19.34 M SOL

% of supply3.32%

Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M

Spot ETF Flows

Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP

BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…

AUM

$77.7 B

24h Flow+$227 M

7-day Flow+$727 M

YTD Flowi−$4.96 B

ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…

AUM

$10.0 B

24h Flow+$38 M

7-day Flow+$159 M

YTD Flowi−$1.20 B

SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…

AUM

$738.3 M

24h Flow+$3 M

7-day Flow+$4 M

YTD Flowi−$25 M

04.10Smart Money Positioning

Trimming

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

The biggest trim in the last 24 hours is Litentry / Heima (LIT), with tracked wallets reducing exposure by $390K to a remaining $136.7M position across 4 wallets. The biggest add is Morpho (MORPHO), where 5 wallets added a net $9K, a flat move in dollar terms but notable as the highest-ranked new build on the watchlist at $17.7M held. Overall, the cohort shed a net $1.41M across 24 hours, a modest de-risking rather than a directional rotation.

Total tracked$855.5M

Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist

Net change 24h-$1.41M

Data by

Paid per call x402by

Largest holdings10 tokens · $853.2M held

#	Token · what it is	Held · wallets	Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot.	Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago.	Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago.	Mkt cap
1	AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)	$190.8M 3 wallets	-$270K	-$3.57M	building	$4.53B
2	UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)	$150.4M 26 wallets	-$210K	-$1.41M	building	$2.30B
3	LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation	$136.7M 4 wallets	-$390K	+$17K	building	$561.7M
4	ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)	$107.4M 13 wallets	-$248K	-$55K	building	$1.77B
5	BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange	$93.8M 4 wallets	+$498	-$99K	building	$1.16B
6	WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era	$74.1M 21 wallets	-$111K	-$564K	building	$1.36B
7	WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol	$42.5M 1 wallet	-$77K	+$14K	building	$1.80B
8	AXS_OLDEthereum	$22.8M 18 wallets	+$0	building	building	$470.5M
9	MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer	$17.7M 5 wallets	+$9K	-$44K	building	$1.31B
10	USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund	$16.9M 6 wallets	-$115K	+$84K	building	$774.3M

1AETHWETHEthereum

$190.8M

3 wallets

Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)

24h-$270K 7d-$3.57M

2UNIEthereum

$150.4M

26 wallets

Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)

24h-$210K 7d-$1.41M

3LITEthereum

$136.7M

4 wallets

Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation

24h-$390K 7d+$17K

4ONDOEthereum

$107.4M

13 wallets

Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)

24h-$248K 7d-$55K

5BGBEthereum

$93.8M

4 wallets

Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange

24h+$498 7d-$99K

6WLDEthereum

$74.1M

21 wallets

Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era

24h-$111K 7d-$564K

7WLFIEthereum

$42.5M

1 wallet

World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol

24h-$77K 7d+$14K

8AXS_OLDEthereum

$22.8M

18 wallets

24h+$0 7dbuilding

9MORPHOEthereum

$17.7M

5 wallets

Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer

24h+$9K 7d-$44K

10USTBEthereum

$16.9M

6 wallets

Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund

24h-$115K 7d+$84K

Small-cap watch5 tokens · $2.3M held

#	Token · what it is	Held · wallets	Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot.	Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago.	Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago.	Mkt cap
1	PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin	$1.3M 11 wallets	-$4K	+$23K	building	$402.7M
2	USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin	$433.3K 6 wallets	+$2K	+$646	building	$62.5M
3	PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token	$213.3K 14 wallets	+$1K	+$59K	building	$818.2M
4	DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products	$172.8K 10 wallets	-$6	+$279	building	$122.0M
5	PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps	$136.7K 2 wallets	-$77	-$764	building	$8.4M

1PENGUSolana

$1.3M

11 wallets

Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin

24h-$4K 7d+$23K

2USELESSSolana

$433.3K

6 wallets

Useless Coin: Solana memecoin

24h+$2K 7d+$646

3PUMPSolana

$213.3K

14 wallets

Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token

24h+$1K 7d+$59K

4DRVEthereum

$172.8K

10 wallets

Derive: on-chain options and structured products

24h-$6 7d+$279

5PEARArbitrum

$136.7K

2 wallets

Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps

24h-$77 7d-$764

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

Asset	Last	Trendi	Supporti	Resistancei	RSIi	RSI Status	Signal
SPX S&P 500	7,443.28	Sideways	6,987.23	7,464.88	47	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp.	25,508.07	Sideways	23,877.26	26,140.04	44	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
DXY Dollar Index	113.49	USD ↑	112.65	114.04	50	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
VIX Volatility	18.65	Sideways	17.32	18.69	55	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
US10Y US 10Y Yield	4.55%	Yields ↑	4.50%	4.62%	55	Neutral	Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude	$79.20	Sideways	$75.47	$90.24	50	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold	$4,051	Bearish	$4,003	$4,255	44	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin	$65,496	Sideways	$63,356	$73,045	58	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
ETH Ethereum	$1,923	Sideways	$1,735	$2,184	64	Neutral	Holdconf 50%

06Key Events

Next 7 days

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

Tesla reports earnings today (July 21) and Alphabet is also on deck this session, making the next 24 hours the first major test of Mag7 earnings season. Later in the week, Durable Goods Orders for June land July 27 and CB Consumer Confidence for July follows July 28, alongside Visa (V) and Coca-Cola (KO) earnings on the 28th.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Mon
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev -4.50 % High
Tue, Jul 28 CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)prev 91.20 High
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/18)Est: 212 K · prev 208 K Medium
Fri
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST New Home Sales (Jun)Est: 3.40 % · prev -7.30 % Medium
Mon
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Jun)Est: 0.40 % · prev 1.30 % Medium
Tue, Jul 28 Goods Trade Balance Adv (Jun)prev -105.9 B Medium
Tue, Jul 28 Goods Trade Balance (Jun)prev -105.9 B Medium
Mon
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (Jun)Est: 0.10 % · prev -4.60 % Low

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

Today · After close GOOGL — AlphabetEPS est $2.87 (+24% YoY) · Rev est $116.5B (+21% YoY) High
Tomorrow · After close TSLA — TeslaEPS est $0.50 (+25% YoY) · Rev est $26.1B (+16% YoY) High
Tue, Jul 28 · After close V — VisaEPS est $3.23 (+8% YoY) · Rev est $11.4B (+12% YoY) High
Tue, Jul 28 · After close KO — Coca-ColaEPS est $0.92 (+6% YoY) · Rev est $13.2B (+5% YoY) High

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Mid-cyclei

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

A reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018), reassessed about every two weeks.

Today's read

Capital Markets, Lenders, Terms, Capital, and Yield Spreads all read warm - reflecting open financing windows, covenant-lite dominance, and tight spreads - while Outlook, Interest Rates, and Investors lean cold, with AAII bearish sentiment running above historical norms and real rates still meaningfully positive.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 15 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Refreshed 21 Jul 2026 05:08 UTC · 07:08 CEST Sources ⓘ

Add selectively. WTI shock and Extreme Fear open crypto to asymmetric entry

The dominant story today is a 9.3% single-session surge in WTI crude to $79.20, driven by US-Iran tension headlines per Nasdaq. That geopolitical bid lifted Energy (+0.50%) while Industrials fell 1.85% - a spread of 2.35pp that stops just short of a full rotation signal but confirms defensive positioning is fragmenting. Equities are flat to slightly lower at 7,443 on the S&P 500, and the MOVE index (bond volatility) jumped 4.0%, flagging rates unease. The cycle reads Mid-cycle: financing conditions remain open, but real rates at 2.31% on 10-year TIPS and a news sentiment score of -14 (Bearish Bias) argue against broad risk-adding. The genuine opportunity is in crypto: Bitcoin at $65,496 sits 3.4% above its 200-week moving average, funding rates are near-zero, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 25 (Extreme Fear) while Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $227M in 24 hours. That divergence between fear sentiment and institutional flow is the clearest asymmetric setup on the tape today. Equities remain overvalued on every long-run metric; hold existing positions but do not chase.

24h Bias

Cautious; geopolitical risk elevated

Equities

Hold; overvalued, no margin of safety

Bonds

Add small at 30Y 5.06%; real yield attractive

Commodities

Hold energy; avoid chasing 9% WTI spike

Crypto

Add Bitcoin on Extreme Fear, positive ETF flow

Vol hedge

Hold VIX calls; MOVE rising, risk not priced

Oil Surge Masks Fragile Cross-Asset Picture

01Daily Summary

02Macro Snapshot

03News Sentiment

04.1Tech Equitiesi

04.2Recent IPOs

04.3Indices

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Index Components

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

04.7Commodities

04.8Crypto Assets

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

04.10Smart Money Positioning

05Technical Dashboard

06Key Events

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

08Daily Alpha

Add selectively. WTI shock and Extreme Fear open crypto to asymmetric entry