01Daily Summary

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Intel fell nearly 8% at Friday's close, dragging the Technology sector down 1.46% and exposing a chip-led fault line beneath a flat S&P 500 finish at 7,412. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund products shed $240 million in a single session, and the crypto Fear and Greed index sits at 26 (Fear) this weekend, even as Bitcoin holds just above its 200-week moving average at $64,451. Gold at $4,070.80 and WTI crude at $84.38 signal commodity resilience, while a bearish news-sentiment score of -27 and both equity and crypto fear gauges in negative territory keep the overall read firmly mixed.

S&P 500+0.05%NASDAQ−0.64%US10Y+4 bpWTI+1.14%Gold+0.51%BTC+0.22%ETH+0.58%DXY+0.02%VIX−0.64%

Driver:Intel's 7.9% single-session drop anchored a chip-sector selloff, pulling the Technology sector down 1.46% at Friday's close.
Cross-asset:Equities flat overall; Technology lagged while Real Estate gained 2.25%; gold and WTI firmed; crypto drifted marginally higher despite heavy ETF outflows.
Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 5.17%; 2s10s spread at 34 basis points; 10-year real yield at 2.43%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) at 277 basis points, up 9 on the day; IPOR USDC at 3.51%.
Sentiment:Equity Fear and Greed at 39 (Fear); crypto Fear and Greed at 26; VIX at 18.58; news sentiment score -27 (Bearish Bias); Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.61 with near-zero funding rates.
Forward bias:US Durable Goods Orders and German Ifo Business Climate print Monday; a durable-goods beat or HY spread compression would be needed to flip the regime toward Risk-On.

02Macro Snapshot

Mixed signals

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Benchmark Rates	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Fed Ratei	3.50 – 3.75 %	unchanged	17 Jun 2026	29 Jul 2026	The 3.50 to 3.75 percent fed funds band keeps policy restrictive for risk assets.
ECB Ratei	2.25 %	unchanged	23 Jul 2026	10 Sep 2026	The 2.25 percent ECB rate eases European risk assets.
BoJ Ratei	1.00 %	+25 bp	16 Jun 2026	31 Jul 2026	The 1.00 percent BoJ rate keeps the JPY carry trade attractive.
SOFRi	3.64 %	+2 bp	daily	tomorrow	SOFR at 3.64 percent with a 2 bp rise signals tighter short end funding.
IPOR USDCi	3.51 %	−13 bp	real-time	—	USDC IPOR at 3.51 percent below SOFR points to deleveraging pressure.
IPOR WETHi	1.81 %	+0 bp	real-time	—	WETH IPOR at 1.81 percent shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei	2.04 %	—	real-time	—	ETH staking yield at 2.04 percent offers native return on holding ETH.

US Inflation	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
TruCPI-US (headline)i	2.09 %	-0.02 pp	daily	tomorrow	Truflation at 2.09 percent runs cooler than the official CPI print.
CPI YoY (headline)i	3.5 %	−0.7 pp	14 Jul 2026	12 Aug 2026	Headline CPI at 3.5 percent keeps the Fed cautious on cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i	2.6 %	−0.3 pp	14 Jul 2026	12 Aug 2026	Core CPI at 2.6 percent shows persistent inflation above target.
PCE YoY (headline)i	4.1 %	+0.3 pp	25 Jun 2026	30 Jul 2026	PCE at 4.1 percent runs above the Fed 2 percent target.
PCE YoY (core)i	3.4 %	+0.1 pp	25 Jun 2026	30 Jul 2026	Core PCE at 3.4 percent remains sticky well above the 2 percent target.
PPI YoY (headline)i	5.5 %	−0.5 pp	15 Jul 2026	13 Aug 2026	PPI at 5.5 percent signals upstream inflation that may feed into CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i	4.7 %	+0.1 pp	15 Jul 2026	13 Aug 2026	Core PPI at 4.7 percent indicates persistent upstream price pressures.

Euro Area Inflationi	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Euro Area	2.7 %	−0.4 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Euro area HICP at 2.7 percent sits above the ECB 2 percent target.
Romania	9.2 %	−0.5 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Romania HICP at 9.2 percent reflects fiscal tightening and tax hikes.
Bulgaria	5.2 %	−1.0 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Bulgaria HICP at 5.2 percent aligns with euro convergence criteria post 2026 entry.
Poland	3.0 %	−0.4 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Poland HICP at 3.0 percent keeps the central bank on hold.
Germany	2.4 %	−0.3 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Germany HICP at 2.4 percent anchors the euro area average near target.
France	2.0 %	−0.8 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	France HICP at 2.0 percent sits exactly at the ECB target.

Labor	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m)	158.98 M jobs	+57 k	2 Jul 2026	7 Aug 2026	NFP at plus 57 thousand signals labor market cooling.
Unemployment Ratei	4.2 %	−0.1 pp	2 Jul 2026	7 Aug 2026	Unemployment at 4.2 percent indicates rising slack in the labor market.

Activity	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY)	+1.1 %	−0.4 pp	17 Jul 2026	18 Aug 2026	Industrial production up 1.1 percent YoY shows modest manufacturing strength.
Retail Salesi (m/m)	+0.2 %	−0.8 pp	16 Jul 2026	14 Aug 2026	Retail sales up 0.2 percent m/m point to steady consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi	53.3	+0.6	June 2026	—	ISM
ISM Services PMIi	54.0	+0.4	June 2026	—

Yield Curve	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi	34 bp	—	daily	tomorrow	Positive curve. Recession odds receding.

Sentiment	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity)	39 (Fear)	unchanged	daily	tomorrow
Crypto Fear & Greedi	26 (Fear)	−1	daily	tomorrow
News Sentimenti	−27 (Fear)	−11	every 30 min	—

03News Sentiment

Fear

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −46 to +36 · current −27 (Fear) · −11 24h

7 days ago today

Direction

bull 0% bear 100% ± 15% uncertainty

Coverage

macro 68% crypto 0% mixed 32%

What's driving today's news sentiment Top 1 · sorted by impact

−20 Bearish short-term

Chip sector sell-off pressures Nasdaq and broader equity market, impacting crypto tech-sensitive segments

Nasdaq 100 index fell 1.27% on chip stock sell-off dragging broader market; S&P 500 down slightly and Dow Jones up modestly amid mixed equity signals.

nasdaq.comconf 85% Market-WideAlt-L1s

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bearish

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's tech cohort split sharply, with only 3 of 9 names closing higher. Apple led the gainers at +3.53%, while Intel was the session's standout loser at -7.89%, followed by Advanced Micro Devices at -3.29% and the SOXX semiconductor index off 4.40%. Meta Platforms and Tesla also shed ground, leaving the group's aggregate tone decidedly negative beneath Apple's headline pop.

AAPLApple

$333.02+3.53%

1D Range $321.62 — $334.37

1M Range $275.15 — $333.74

P/E TTMi40.0 P/E Fwdi34.4 50-DMAi+8.7% 200-DMAi+20.7% RSI(14)i65 YTDi+22.9% % from ATHi−0.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.04

MSFTMicrosoft

$381.70+0.03%

1D Range $380.65 — $389.03

1M Range $352.83 — $402.29

P/E TTMi22.6 P/E Fwdi19.6 50-DMAi−4.4% 200-DMAi−12.5% RSI(14)i45 YTDi−19.3% % from ATHi−31.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.70

GOOGLAlphabet

$319.74+0.65%

1D Range $317.33 — $324.18

1M Range $317.69 — $370.92

P/E TTMi15.9 P/E Fwdi21.4 50-DMAi−12.3% 200-DMAi−1.3% RSI(14)i32 YTDi+1.5% % from ATHi−21.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.14

AMZNAmazon

$232.11−0.66%

1D Range $231.34 — $234.95

1M Range $227.01 — $254.96

P/E TTMi27.5 P/E Fwdi23.1 50-DMAi−6.9% 200-DMAi−1.1% RSI(14)i38 YTDi+2.5% % from ATHi−16.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.48

NVDANVIDIA

$206.84−0.92%

1D Range $204.81 — $211.91

1M Range $192.53 — $212.50

P/E TTMi31.5 P/E Fwdi23.0 50-DMAi−1.1% 200-DMAi+7.2% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+9.5% % from ATHi−12.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.12

METAMeta Platforms

$595.19−1.80%

1D Range $594.60 — $609.98

1M Range $542.87 — $681.31

P/E TTMi21.4 P/E Fwdi16.9 50-DMAi−1.8% 200-DMAi−6.7% RSI(14)i44 YTDi−8.5% % from ATHi−25.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.20

TSLATesla

$313.03−2.08%

1D Range $306.51 — $322.96

1M Range $313.03 — $425.30

P/E TTMi265.4 P/E Fwdi133.4 50-DMAi−22.2% 200-DMAi−24.5% RSI(14)i28 YTDi−28.5% % from ATHi−37.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.02

INTCIntel

$92.32−7.89%

1D Range $91.58 — $101.74

1M Range $92.32 — $139.63

P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi51.2 50-DMAi−19.9% 200-DMAi+40.4% RSI(14)i37 YTDi+134.4% % from ATHi−35.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.16

AMDAMD

$521.95−3.29%

1D Range $518.01 — $549.00

1M Range $495.76 — $580.91

P/E TTMi170.0 P/E Fwdi38.6 50-DMAi+2.6% 200-DMAi+70.8% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+133.6% % from ATHi−10.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.23

04.2Recent IPOs

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

SPCXSpaceX

IPO'd 12 Jun 2026

$115.07−2.68%

1D Range $111.40 — $116.74

1M Range $115.07 — $170.86

Mkt Capi$1.50T IPO-day Vali$2.10T IPO-to-Datei−28.5% Floati365.9M · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a P/E FwdiFY27E · 213x RSI(14)i35% from ATHi−49.0%

04.3Indices

Mixedi

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's US session was a study in divergence: the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46% and the S&P 500 barely held positive at +0.05%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.64% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.35%, with semiconductor weakness dragging the SOXX down 4.40%. Internationally, the Nikkei dropped 2.73% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM) fell 1.97%, while the FTSE added 0.91%. Breadth tells a nuanced story: the equal-weight RSP is outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 by 2.67 percentage points year-to-date (+10.74% vs +8.07%), meaning the average S&P 500 stock is actually ahead of the index, and Mag7 concentration is not the dominant driver this year. VIX closed at 18.58, modestly lower on the day, while the MOVE index rose nearly 4%, signaling renewed bond-market volatility.

US Equity Benchmarks

SPXS&P 500

7,411.98+0.05%

1D Range 7,396.53 — 7,460.98

1M Range 7,354.03 — 7,575.39

50-DMAi−0.8% 200-DMAi+5.8% RSI(14)i45 YTDi+8.1% % from ATHi−2.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.61

IXICNasdaq Comp.

24,975.82−0.64%

1D Range 24,918.09 — 25,222.14

1M Range 24,975.82 — 26,281.61

50-DMAi−4.2% 200-DMAi+4.3% RSI(14)i39 YTDi+7.5% % from ATHi−8.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.35

DJIDow Jones Ind.

51,947.25+0.46%

1D Range 51,682.36 — 52,118.19

1M Range 51,711.65 — 53,055.91

50-DMAi+1.0% 200-DMAi+6.2% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+7.4% % from ATHi−2.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.57

RUTRussell 2000

2,930.00−0.35%

1D Range 2,927.49 — 2,956.88

1M Range 2,930.00 — 3,024.37

50-DMAi0.0% 200-DMAi+10.0% RSI(14)i45 YTDi+16.8% % from ATHi−3.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.62

SOXXSemiconductors

527.01−4.40%

1D Range 522.22 — 548.00

1M Range 521.81 — 640.76

50-DMAi−7.4% 200-DMAi+32.6% RSI(14)i43 YTDi+68.0% % from ATHi−19.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.08

Risk & Breadth Gauges

RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt

213.57+0.78%

1D Range 212.23 — 214.47

1M Range 210.31 — 215.06

50-DMAi+1.7% 200-DMAi+7.3% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+10.7% vs SPX YTDi+2.7pp Cap-weight sharei-33%

VIXiVolatility Idx

18.58−0.64%

1D Range 17.41 — 19.05

1M Range 15.03 — 18.89

50-DMAi+7.2% 200-DMAi−0.7% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+28.0%

MOVEiMOVE Index

70.88+3.99%

5D Range 68.16 — 77.77

1M Range 65.39 — 77.77

50-DMAi−1.5% 200-DMAi−1.7% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+13.7%

DXYTrade-Wt. USD

113.49+0.02%

5D Range 113.47 — 114.04

1M Range 112.57 — 114.67

50-DMAi+0.7% 200-DMAi+1.5% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+2.1%

World Markets

FTSEFTSE 100

10,736.23+0.91%

1D Range 10,599.10 — 10,738.83

1M Range 10,472.45 — 10,736.23

50-DMAi+2.5% 200-DMAi+5.5% RSI(14)i62 YTDi+7.9% % from ATHi−1.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.73

N225Nikkei 225

64,611.15−2.73%

1D Range 64,201.03 — 65,720.81

1M Range 64,141.12 — 72,366.34

50-DMAi−3.4% 200-DMAi+14.3% RSI(14)i42 YTDi+24.7% % from ATHi−10.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.97

HSIHang Seng

24,963.23−0.98%

1D Range 24,812.50 — 25,031.34

1M Range 22,671.87 — 25,210.82

50-DMAi+1.3% 200-DMAi−3.1% RSI(14)i57 YTDi−5.2% % from ATHi−11.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.36

Global Equity Baskets

URTHMSCI World

200.88+0.13%

1D Range 200.58 — 202.16

1M Range 197.36 — 204.75

50-DMAi−0.7% 200-DMAi+5.2% RSI(14)i46 YTDi+7.7% % from ATHi−2.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.53

EEMMSCI Emerging

63.33−1.97%

1D Range 63.24 — 64.15

1M Range 63.29 — 68.41

50-DMAi−5.2% 200-DMAi+5.4% RSI(14)i41 YTDi+12.6% % from ATHi−11.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.32

Valuations

CAPE 10iShiller P/E

40.5Overvalued

+0.10% today

Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−8.4%

Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)

28.5Overvalued

+0.10% today

Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)

Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP

218.1Overvalued

Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.6%

Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst

Real Estate+2.25%

Materials+1.28%

Staples+1.02%

Healthcare−0.17%

Telecom−0.34%

Energy−0.37%

Financials−0.58%

Industrials−0.78%

Utilities−0.89%

Discretionary−1.04%

Tech−1.46%

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

Offered

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The Treasury curve bear-flattened at the front end on Friday: the 2-year yield rose 6 basis points to 4.37% and the 10-year added 4 bp to 4.71%, compressing the 2s10s spread to +34 bp. The move was driven by real rates, with the 10-year TIPS yield up 4 bp to 2.43% while the 10-year breakeven edged 2 bp lower to 2.26%, pointing to tighter financial conditions rather than inflation re-pricing. Credit spreads widened on the day, with high-yield OAS up 9 bp to 277 bp and investment-grade OAS adding 1 bp to 79 bp, a modest but directionally consistent risk-off signal.

US2YiTreasury 2Y

4.37%+6 bp

5D Range 4.18 — 4.37

1M Range 4.07 — 4.37

5-day Δ+21 bp YTD Δ+90 bp

US10YiTreasury 10Y

4.71%+4 bp

5D Range 4.55 — 4.71

1M Range 4.38 — 4.71

10–2 spread+34 bp YTD Δ+52 bp

US30YiTreasury 30Y

5.17%+2 bp

5D Range 5.06 — 5.17

1M Range 4.86 — 5.17

5-day Δ+8 bp YTD Δ+31 bp

Fiscal

US Debt & Servicing

Total Public Debti

$39.68T +$41.1B (1d)

+8.0% YoY

Annual Interest (gross)i

$1.35T +11.4% YoY

gross · avg rate 3.41%

Rate & Rollover Risk

Wtd Avg Rate on Debti

3.41% +0.10pp YoY

on total interest-bearing debt

Maturing < 1 Yeari

25.6%

~$10.15T · refinancing-risk gauge

Macro Bond

Real Rates & Credit

Real Rates & Inflation Expectations

10Y TIPS Reali

2.43% +4 bp

10Y nominal − inflation expectations

10Y Breakeveni

2.26% −2 bp

market-implied 10Y CPI

Credit Spreads

HY OASi

2.77% +9 bp

ICE BofA US HY

IG OASi

0.79% +1 bp

tight · late-cycle

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Heating

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Truflation's daily read sits at 2.09% year-over-year, up 19 basis points over the past month and trending warmer, with transport adding 81 basis points to the headline. The 1.44 percentage point gap below the official BLS CPI print of 3.5% reflects the leading nature of the daily series versus the lagged monthly survey.

2.09%

Daily −0.02 pp

1-mo +0.19 pp

1-yr +0.07 pp

Daily Data By

About the number

Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.

Truflation data as of 2026-07-25

vs BLS CPI official 3.5% (Jun 2026, monthly · lagged) −1.44 ppbelow official print next BLS CPI: 12 Aug 2026

Index Components

12 basket categories · sorted by weight

Category	Inflation (YoY)i	Contributioni	Trend (1-mo)i
Housing 23.1% of basket	+0.15%	+0.03 pp	Flat +0.04 pp
Transport 19.8% of basket	+4.10%	+0.81 pp	Heating +0.85 pp
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages 15.2% of basket	+2.10%	+0.32 pp	Heating +0.80 pp
Health 8.8% of basket	+0.71%	+0.06 pp	Cooling −0.29 pp
Household Durables & Daily Use Items 7.1% of basket	+3.20%	+0.23 pp	Cooling −0.19 pp
Utilities 6.0% of basket	+2.56%	+0.15 pp	Cooling −0.28 pp
Recreation & Culture 5.5% of basket	+2.79%	+0.15 pp	Heating +0.20 pp
Clothing & Footwear 3.8% of basket	+5.01%	+0.19 pp	Cooling −0.60 pp
Other 3.4% of basket	+3.17%	+0.11 pp	Heating +0.09 pp
Communications 3.3% of basket	-2.47%	−0.08 pp	Cooling −2.42 pp
Education 2.3% of basket	+2.69%	+0.06 pp	Cooling −0.77 pp
Alcohol & Tobacco 1.8% of basket	+4.25%	+0.08 pp	Heating +0.40 pp

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Offered

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The JGB curve steepened further at Friday's close, with the 10-year yield rising 3 bp to 2.78% and the 30-year sitting at 3.93%, while the 2-year holds at 1.50% against the Bank of Japan's policy rate of 1.00%. The 2s10s spread of +128 bp reflects a wide term premium that keeps yen-carry funding costs anchored at the short end while duration risk accumulates further out the curve.

JP2YiJGB 2Y

1.50%+5 bp

5D Range 1.44 — 1.50

1M Range 1.38 — 1.50

5-day Δ+6 bp YTD Δ+30 bp

JP10YiJGB 10Y

2.78%+3 bp

5D Range 2.71 — 2.78

1M Range 2.61 — 2.87

10–2 spread+128 bp YTD Δ+66 bp

JP30YiJGB 30Y

3.93%+3 bp

5D Range 3.86 — 3.93

1M Range 3.76 — 4.01

5-day Δ+13 bp YTD Δ+54 bp

04.7Commodities

Bullish

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy prices firmed on Friday, with Brent crude rising 2.33% and WTI up 1.14%, while natural gas added 1.82%. Precious metals also advanced, with Gold (XAU) closing at $4,070.80 (+0.51%) and Silver at $58.906 (+1.47%), extending the metals complex's bid.

CLWTI Crude

$84.38+1.14%

5D Range $80.03 — $84.38

1M Range $69.60 — $84.38

50-DMAi−4.0% 200-DMAi+11.2% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+47.5%

COBrent

$86.99+2.33%

5D Range $81.23 — $86.99

1M Range $68.53 — $86.99

50-DMAi−2.2% 200-DMAi+6.3% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+40.4%

NGNatural Gas

$2.80+1.82%

5D Range $2.75 — $2.83

1M Range $2.73 — $3.34

50-DMAi−8.4% 200-DMAi−24.7% RSI(14)i40 YTDi−0.7%

XAUGold

$4,070.80+0.51%

5D Range $4,024.00 — $4,085.20

1M Range $3,992.10 — $4,209.00

50-DMAi−3.3% 200-DMAi−11.3% RSI(14)i46 YTDi−7.2%

XAGSilver

$58.91+1.47%

5D Range $57.36 — $59.29

1M Range $56.19 — $63.52

50-DMAi−10.6% 200-DMAi−16.0% RSI(14)i45 YTDi−19.1%

04.8Crypto Assets

Bullish

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Bitcoin is trading at $64,450.99, up 0.22% over 24 hours, with Ethereum at $1,884.07 (+0.58%) and Solana at $74.98 (+0.74%), as total crypto market cap gains 0.85% on the day. BTC dominance holds at 56.5%, reflecting continued relative strength in the largest asset. Spot ETF flows are a headwind: BTC ETFs saw $240 million in outflows and ETH ETFs $71 million on the latest day, though the 7-day window is net positive for both. Perpetual funding rates are positive but undemanding (BTC at +5.31% APR, ETH at +1.85% APR), and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 26 (Fear), suggesting positioning remains cautious rather than crowded.

BTCBitcoin

$64,450.99+0.22%

1D Range $64,310.72 — $64,538.00

1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,516.18

50-DMAi+2.1% 200-DMAi−11.0% 200-WMAi($63,323.05) +1.8% RSI(14)i51 % from ATHi−48.8% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.33

ETHEthereum

$1,884.07+0.58%

1D Range $1,873.23 — $1,887.45

1M Range $1,569.41 — $1,933.54

50-DMAi+8.5% 200-DMAi−12.5% 200-WMAi($2,478.28) −24.0% RSI(14)i57 % from ATHi−61.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.24

SOLSolana

$74.98+0.74%

1D Range $74.43 — $75.17

1M Range $70.39 — $82.28

50-DMAi+2.1% 200-DMAi−15.4% 200-WMAi($107.77) −30.4% RSI(14)i47 % from ATHi−74.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.52

ENAEthena

$0.0861−2.10%

1D Range $0.0853 — $0.0882

1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0901

50-DMAi+7.6% 200-DMAi−21.7% RSI(14)i55 % from ATHi−94.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.74

HYPEHyperliquid

$58.52+0.69%

1D Range $58.11 — $58.66

1M Range $57.42 — $71.29

50-DMAi−8.8% 200-DMAi+31.5% RSI(14)i41 % from ATHi−22.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.06

PUMPPump.fun

$0.001814+0.62%

1D Range $0.001765 — $0.001822

1M Range $0.001351 — $0.002024

50-DMAi+13.4% 200-DMAi−4.5% RSI(14)i57 % from ATHi−78.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.28

Crypto Market

Macro Indicators

Market Caps & Dominance

BTC Mcapi

$1.29T +0.22%

56.5% of total

ETH Mcap

$227.4B +0.58%

9.9% of total

Stablecoin Mcap

$309.7B −0.04%

circulating supply

Total Crypto Mcap

$2.29T +0.85%

global market cap

Trading Volumes (24h)

CEX Volume (spot)

$38.2B −9.72%

24h · CoinGecko aggregate

DEX Volume (spot)

$4.7B −28.33%

24h · DefiLlama all chains

CEX Volume (perp)

$84.3B −11.85%

24h · derivatives exchanges

Hyperliquid (perp)

$1.3B −16.83%

24h · 230+ markets

DeFi Activity

Global DeFi TVL

$75.8B +0.56%

all chains

Lending TVL

$40.2B +0.63%

money markets

DEX TVL

$11.4B +0.72%

liquidity pools

ETH Staking APR

2.04%

Lido stETH base rate

Leverage & Sentiment

BTC Fundingi

+5.31% APR longs pay

8h · Binance perp

ETH Fundingi

+1.85% APR longs pay

8h · Binance perp

BTC L/S Ratioi

1.61 large traders long

1.61× longs vs shorts

Crypto F&Gi

26 Fear

Δ −1 vs yesterday · 0-100

IPOR Rates

USDCi

3.51% −0.13 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.74%

USDTi

3.21% −0.43 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.21%

DAIi

3.95% +0.31 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.95%

WETHi

1.81% −0.00 pp vs avg

24h avg 1.81%

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Distributing

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's spot ETF flows were negative across the board: BTC saw $240 million in outflows, ETH $71 million, and SOL $1 million. Zooming out to the 7-day window, the picture reverses, with BTC at +$34 million, ETH at +$104 million, and SOL at +$9 million, indicating Friday's redemptions are a single-day event within a broadly constructive weekly trend. Corporate treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,285,045 BTC (6.12% of supply) and 7,788,049 ETH (6.45% of supply) held across tracked entities.

Asset	Total Held	USD Value	% of Supply	Top Public Holders
₿ Bitcoin BTC	1.29 M BTC	$82.9 B	6.12%	Strategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ Ethereum ETH	7.79 M ETH	$14.7 B	6.45%	BitMine Immersion 5.78M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎ Solana SOL	19.34 M SOL	$1.5 B	3.32%	Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M

Public-company treasuries3 assets

₿BitcoinBTC

$82.9 B

1.29 M BTC

% of supply6.12%

Top public holdersStrategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k

ΞEthereumETH

$14.7 B

7.79 M ETH

% of supply6.45%

Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.78M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k

◎SolanaSOL

$1.5 B

19.34 M SOL

% of supply3.32%

Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M

Spot ETF Flows

Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP

BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…

AUM

$76.9 B

24h Flow−$240 M

7-day Flow+$34 M

YTD Flowi−$5.16 B

ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…

AUM

$10.1 B

24h Flow−$71 M

7-day Flow+$104 M

YTD Flowi−$1.14 B

SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…

AUM

$733.8 M

24h Flow−$1 M

7-day Flow+$9 M

YTD Flowi−$31 M

04.10Smart Money Positioning

Trimming

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The biggest 24-hour add was Bitget Token (BGB), with tracked wallets adding +$87K on the day to a $94.4M position across 4 wallets. The biggest trim was Worldcoin (WLD), where 22 wallets reduced exposure by $108K over 24 hours despite a positive 7-day and 30-day trend. Overall net change across the cohort was -$49K, a near-flat session.

Total tracked$849.0M

Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist

Net change 24h-$49K

Data by

Paid per call x402by

Largest holdings10 tokens · $846.8M held

#	Token · what it is	Held · wallets	Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot.	Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago.	Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago.	Mkt cap
1	AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)	$186.5M 3 wallets	+$34K	-$1.26M	-$6.48M	$4.41B
2	UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)	$150.0M 26 wallets	-$59K	+$105K	-$926K	$2.30B
3	LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation	$128.0M 4 wallets	+$69K	+$494K	+$275K	$524.4M
4	ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)	$115.3M 13 wallets	+$58K	+$35K	+$123K	$1.89B
5	BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange	$94.4M 4 wallets	+$87K	-$12K	+$4K	$1.17B
6	WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era	$73.0M 22 wallets	-$108K	+$4.29M	+$2.53M	$1.26B
7	WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol	$41.8M 1 wallet	-$56K	-$30K	+$27K	$1.77B
8	AXS_OLDEthereum	$23.6M 18 wallets	+$0	building	building	$486.3M
9	MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer	$17.1M 5 wallets	-$75K	-$54K	+$686K	$1.27B
10	USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund	$16.9M 6 wallets	+$1	-$1.20M	-$3.73M	$820.9M

1AETHWETHEthereum

$186.5M

3 wallets

Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)

24h+$34K 7d-$1.26M

2UNIEthereum

$150.0M

26 wallets

Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)

24h-$59K 7d+$105K

3LITEthereum

$128.0M

4 wallets

Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation

24h+$69K 7d+$494K

4ONDOEthereum

$115.3M

13 wallets

Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)

24h+$58K 7d+$35K

5BGBEthereum

$94.4M

4 wallets

Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange

24h+$87K 7d-$12K

6WLDEthereum

$73.0M

22 wallets

Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era

24h-$108K 7d+$4.29M

7WLFIEthereum

$41.8M

1 wallet

World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol

24h-$56K 7d-$30K

8AXS_OLDEthereum

$23.6M

18 wallets

24h+$0 7dbuilding

9MORPHOEthereum

$17.1M

5 wallets

Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer

24h-$75K 7d-$54K

10USTBEthereum

$16.9M

6 wallets

Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund

24h+$1 7d-$1.20M

Small-cap watch5 tokens · $2.2M held

#	Token · what it is	Held · wallets	Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot.	Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago.	Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago.	Mkt cap
1	PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin	$1.3M 11 wallets	-$4K	-$213	+$26K	$396.3M
2	USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin	$404.3K 6 wallets	+$1K	+$1K	+$2K	$58.4M
3	PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token	$198.7K 9 wallets	+$610	+$79K	-$868K	$722.4M
4	DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products	$162.1K 10 wallets	-$13	-$28	-$646	$114.5M
5	PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps	$129.3K 2 wallets	-$870	-$1K	-$115K	$8.0M

1PENGUSolana

$1.3M

11 wallets

Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin

24h-$4K 7d-$213

2USELESSSolana

$404.3K

6 wallets

Useless Coin: Solana memecoin

24h+$1K 7d+$1K

3PUMPSolana

$198.7K

9 wallets

Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token

24h+$610 7d+$79K

4DRVEthereum

$162.1K

10 wallets

Derive: on-chain options and structured products

24h-$13 7d-$28

5PEARArbitrum

$129.3K

2 wallets

Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps

24h-$870 7d-$1K

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Asset	Last	Trendi	Supporti	Resistancei	RSIi	RSI Status	Signal
SPX S&P 500	7,411.98	Sideways	7,005.73	7,472.01	45	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp.	24,975.82	Sideways	23,943.10	26,077.95	39	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
DXY Dollar Index	113.49	USD ↑	112.65	114.04	50	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
VIX Volatility	18.58	Sideways	17.34	18.72	55	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
US10Y US 10Y Yield	4.71%	Yields ↑	4.52%	4.71%	68	Neutral	Sell bondsconf 65%
CL WTI Crude	$84.38	Sideways	$75.90	$87.86	58	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold	$4,071	Bearish	$4,024	$4,210	46	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin	$64,451	Sideways	$63,107	$72,407	51	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
ETH Ethereum	$1,884	Sideways	$1,736	$2,153	57	Neutral	Holdconf 50%

06Key Events

Next 7 days

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The week ahead is front-loaded with market-moving risk: Thursday, July 30 brings a simultaneous release of Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and Personal Income at 12:30 UTC, and a Fed press conference the prior evening on July 29 sets the policy tone. Eleven mega-cap earnings reports are on deck, headlined by Visa (V) and Coca-Cola (KO) on Monday, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Procter and Gamble (PG) on Tuesday, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun)Est: 1.60 % · prev -4.50 % High
Tue
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)prev 91.20 High
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jun)Est: 0.10 % · prev 0.30 % High
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)Est: 2.30 % · prev 2.10 % High
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Jun)Est: 0.90 % · prev 1.30 % Medium
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Goods Trade Balance Adv (Jun)Est: -98 B · prev -105.9 B Medium
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Goods Trade Balance (Jun)prev -105.9 B Medium
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PCE Price Index MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.40 % Medium
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25)Est: 206 K · prev 187 K Medium
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PCE Price Index YoY (Jun)Est: 3.70 % · prev 4.10 % Medium
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST GDP Price Index QoQ (Q2)Est: 3.70 % · prev 3.60 % Medium
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (Jun)Est: 1.70 % · prev -4.60 % Low
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PCE Prices QoQ (Q2)Est: 4.30 % · prev 4.40 % Low
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jun)Est: 3.20 % · prev 3.40 % Low
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PCE Prices QoQ (Q2)Est: 4.30 % · prev 4.60 % Low

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

Tue · After close V — VisaEPS est $3.22 (+8% YoY) · Rev est $11.4B (+12% YoY) High
Tue · After close KO — Coca-ColaEPS est $0.92 (+6% YoY) · Rev est $13.2B (+5% YoY) High
Wed · After close MSFT — MicrosoftEPS est $4.21 (+15% YoY) · Rev est $87.6B (+15% YoY) High
Wed · After close META — Meta PlatformsEPS est $7.13 (−0% YoY) · Rev est $60.2B (+27% YoY) High
Wed · After close PG — Procter & GambleEPS est $1.43 (−3% YoY) · Rev est $21.4B (+2% YoY) High
Thu · After close AAPL — AppleEPS est $1.88 (+20% YoY) · Rev est $108.8B (+16% YoY) High
Thu · After close AMZN — AmazonEPS est $1.81 (+8% YoY) · Rev est $196.7B (+17% YoY) High
Thu · After close MA — MastercardEPS est $4.77 (+15% YoY) · Rev est $9.1B (+12% YoY) High
Fri · After close XOM — ExxonMobilEPS est $3.60 (+120% YoY) · Rev est $110.4B (+39% YoY) High
Fri · After close CVX — ChevronEPS est $5.55 (+214% YoY) · Rev est $63.3B (+43% YoY) High
Sat · After close BRK-B — Berkshire HathawayEPS est $5 (−13% YoY) · Rev est $96.5B (−2% YoY) High

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Mid-cyclei

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

A reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018), reassessed about every two weeks.

Today's read

Capital Markets, Lenders, Terms, Capital, and Yield Spreads all read warm - reflecting open financing windows, covenant-lite dominance, and tight spreads - while Outlook, Interest Rates, and Investors lean cold, with AAII bearish sentiment running above historical norms and real rates still meaningfully positive.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 15 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Add selectively. Fear in crypto and equities opens pockets; broad risk still stretched

This weekend's dominant stories are bearish: a high-profile exchange account hack (per Binance Square) is rattling crypto security confidence, Australia is escalating tariff friction with Washington (per Bloomberg), and a chip-sector selloff drove Intel down 7.89% at Friday's close while Technology shed 1.46% - the worst sector on the day. Real Estate led at +2.25%, a spread of 3.7 percentage points that signals late-cycle rotation away from growth and toward defensives. The mid-cycle framework is internally split: financing conditions remain open and spreads tight (HY OAS - high-yield option-adjusted spreads - at 277 basis points), but investor sentiment is cold, with both the crypto Fear and Greed index at 26 (Fear) and the equity equivalent at 39.4. Bitcoin spot at 64,451 sits just 1.78% above its 200-week moving average - a historically meaningful support. Bitcoin ETF outflows of 240 million dollars in 24 hours are noise against a positive seven-day trend. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.43% makes long bonds genuinely competitive. Broad equity adds are hard to justify with trailing price-to-earnings at 28.52 versus a 16.23 long-run mean; selectivity is the only honest answer.

24h Bias

Cautious; news bearish, flows negative

Equities

Hold; trim Technology, add Real Estate dips

Bonds

Add small at 30Y 5.17%; real yield attractive

Commodities

Hold gold; add silver on pullbacks

Crypto

Add small Bitcoin near 200-week average

Vol hedge

Hold; VIX at 18.58, MOVE rising

Fear Dominates As Chips Slide, Crypto Bleeds

01Daily Summary

02Macro Snapshot

03News Sentiment

04.1Tech Equitiesi

04.2Recent IPOs

04.3Indices

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Index Components

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

04.7Commodities

04.8Crypto Assets

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

04.10Smart Money Positioning

05Technical Dashboard

06Key Events

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

08Daily Alpha

Add selectively. Fear in crypto and equities opens pockets; broad risk still stretched