Daily Market Report

Tech Earnings Shock Sends Equities and Sentiment Lower

Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST

01Daily Summary

Risk-Off
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

A sharp single-day selloff in mega-cap technology stocks drove the S&P 500 down 1.21% to 7,408, with Alphabet falling 7.13% and Tesla collapsing 14.52% on earnings disappointments. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) surged 12.38% to 18.70, signalling a meaningful repricing of near-term risk. Crypto markets held relatively steady - Bitcoin at $65,216 sits 2.98% above its 200-week moving average - but Bitcoin ETF outflows of $225.1 million in 24 hours and a Fear and Greed score of 28 (Fear) confirm the defensive shift is broad-based.

S&P 500−1.21%NASDAQ−2.15%US10Y+4 bpWTI+1.14%Gold−0.53%BTC+0.26%ETH−0.24%DXY+0.02%VIX+12.38%

02Macro Snapshot

Mixed signals
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ
Benchmark Rates Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Fed Ratei 3.50 – 3.75 % unchanged 17 Jun 2026 29 Jul 2026 Fed funds at 3.50-3.75% keeps policy restrictive for risk assets.
ECB Ratei 2.25 % unchanged 23 Jul 2026 10 Sep 2026 ECB rate at 2.25% eases pressure on European risk assets.
BoJ Ratei 1.00 % +25 bp 16 Jun 2026 31 Jul 2026 BoJ rate at 1.00% keeps JPY carry trade attractive.
SOFRi 3.62 % +1 bp daily tomorrow SOFR at 3.62% rising one basis point tightens short-end funding.
IPOR USDCi 3.52 % −10 bp real-time — USDC IPOR at 3.52% below SOFR signals deleveraging pressure.
IPOR WETHi 1.85 % +1 bp real-time — WETH IPOR at 1.85% shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei 2.16 % — real-time — ETH staking yield at 2.16% reflects steady validator demand.
US Inflation Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
TruCPI-US (headline)i 2.08 % -0.04 pp daily tomorrow Truflation at 2.08% runs cooler than official CPI prints.
CPI YoY (headline)i 3.5 % −0.7 pp 14 Jul 2026 12 Aug 2026 Headline CPI at 3.5% keeps Fed cautious on rate cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i 2.6 % −0.3 pp 14 Jul 2026 12 Aug 2026 Core CPI at 2.6% shows persistent inflation above target.
PCE YoY (headline)i 4.1 % +0.3 pp 25 Jun 2026 30 Jul 2026 PCE at 4.1% remains well above the Fed's 2% target.
PCE YoY (core)i 3.4 % +0.1 pp 25 Jun 2026 30 Jul 2026 Core PCE at 3.4% stays sticky far above the 2% target.
PPI YoY (headline)i 5.5 % −0.5 pp 15 Jul 2026 13 Aug 2026 PPI at 5.5% signals upstream inflation accelerating ahead of CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i 4.7 % +0.1 pp 15 Jul 2026 13 Aug 2026 Core PPI at 4.7% indicates persistent upstream price pressures.
Euro Area Inflationi Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Euro Area 2.7 % −0.4 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 Euro area HICP at 2.7% keeps ECB on hold near target.
Romania 9.2 % −0.5 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 Romania HICP at 9.2% reflects fiscal tightening and tax hikes.
Bulgaria 5.2 % −1.0 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 Bulgaria HICP at 5.2% aligns with euro convergence criteria.
Poland 3.0 % −0.4 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 Poland HICP at 3.0% leaves room for further rate cuts.
Germany 2.4 % −0.3 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 Germany HICP at 2.4% anchors euro area inflation near target.
France 2.0 % −0.8 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 France HICP at 2.0% sits exactly at the ECB target.
Labor Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) 158.98 M jobs +57 k 2 Jul 2026 7 Aug 2026 NFP gain of 57k points to labor market cooling.
Unemployment Ratei 4.2 % −0.1 pp 2 Jul 2026 7 Aug 2026 Unemployment at 4.2% signals rising slack in the labor market.
Activity Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY) +1.1 % −0.4 pp 17 Jul 2026 18 Aug 2026 Industrial production up 1.1% indicates modest manufacturing growth.
Retail Salesi (m/m) +0.2 % −0.8 pp 16 Jul 2026 14 Aug 2026 Retail sales up 0.2% shows steady consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi 53.3 +0.6 June 2026 — ISM manufacturing at 53.3 confirms factory sector expansion.
ISM Services PMIi 54.0 +0.4 June 2026 — ISM
Yield Curve Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi 36 bp — daily tomorrow Positive curve. Recession odds receding.
Sentiment Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) 40 (Fear) unchanged daily tomorrow
Crypto Fear & Greedi 28 (Fear) −3 daily tomorrow
News Sentimenti −42 (Fear) −56 every 30 min —

03News Sentiment

Fear
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −46 to +54 · current −42 (Fear) · −56 24h
7 days ago today
Direction
bull 12% bear 88% ± 13% uncertainty
Coverage
macro 89% crypto 6% mixed 5%
What's driving today's news sentiment Top 5 · sorted by impact
−38 Bearish short-term
Oil price surge reignites inflation fears, pressures global bonds and central banks
Rising energy prices trigger losses in global bonds, stirring fresh inflation concerns and challenging central bank resolve, indicating tighter monetary conditions and increased market risk.
bloomberg.comconf 85% Market-Wide
+5 Neutral Bitcoin holds near $65K as AI selloff weakly affects major cryptocurrencies coindesk.com
0 Neutral Ardagh Metal Packaging Q2 2026 Earnings Transcript with No Crypto Market Impact nasdaq.com
0 Neutral JAKKS Pacific Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript with No Crypto Impact nasdaq.com
0 Neutral Independent Bank Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript with No Clear Crypto Impact nasdaq.com

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bearish
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

The entire mega-cap tech cohort is in the red today, with zero names positive across nine names tracked. Tesla leads the damage at -14.52%, followed by Alphabet at -7.13% and Amazon at -4.57%. The rest of the group clusters in the -1% to -3% range, making this a broad, not idiosyncratic, selloff.

AAPLApple
$321.66−1.30%
1D Range $319.35 — $323.30
1M Range $275.15 — $333.74
P/E TTMi38.6 P/E Fwdi33.3 50-DMAi+5.3% 200-DMAi+16.7% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+18.7% % from ATHi−4.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.93
MSFTMicrosoft
$381.58−2.24%
1D Range $377.40 — $391.78
1M Range $352.83 — $402.29
P/E TTMi22.6 P/E Fwdi19.6 50-DMAi−4.5% 200-DMAi−12.7% RSI(14)i45 YTDi−19.3% % from ATHi−31.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.64
GOOGLAlphabet
$317.69−7.13%
1D Range $314.91 — $324.49
1M Range $317.69 — $370.92
P/E TTMi15.8 P/E Fwdi21.4 50-DMAi−13.2% 200-DMAi−1.8% RSI(14)i31 YTDi+0.8% % from ATHi−22.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.10
AMZNAmazon
$233.66−4.57%
1D Range $232.05 — $238.35
1M Range $227.01 — $254.96
P/E TTMi27.6 P/E Fwdi23.1 50-DMAi−6.5% 200-DMAi−0.4% RSI(14)i39 YTDi+3.2% % from ATHi−16.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.48
NVDANVIDIA
$208.76−1.56%
1D Range $205.96 — $210.87
1M Range $192.53 — $212.50
P/E TTMi31.8 P/E Fwdi23.2 50-DMAi−0.3% 200-DMAi+8.3% RSI(14)i53 YTDi+10.5% % from ATHi−11.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.15
METAMeta Platforms
$606.10−3.36%
1D Range $597.22 — $614.63
1M Range $542.87 — $681.31
P/E TTMi21.8 P/E Fwdi17.3 50-DMAi0.0% 200-DMAi−5.1% RSI(14)i46 YTDi−6.8% % from ATHi−23.9% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.10
TSLATesla
$319.69−14.52%
1D Range $315.78 — $341.86
1M Range $319.69 — $425.30
P/E TTMi271.0 P/E Fwdi131.7 50-DMAi−21.1% 200-DMAi−23.0% RSI(14)i29 YTDi−27.0% % from ATHi−35.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.22
INTCIntel
$100.23−2.33%
1D Range $99.23 — $104.18
1M Range $95.04 — $139.63
P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi61.3 50-DMAi−13.5% 200-DMAi+53.1% RSI(14)i42 YTDi+154.5% % from ATHi−29.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.28
AMDAMD
$539.69−2.29%
1D Range $525.00 — $556.49
1M Range $495.76 — $580.91
P/E TTMi175.7 P/E Fwdi39.9 50-DMAi+6.4% 200-DMAi+77.5% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+141.5% % from ATHi−7.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.30

04.2Recent IPOs

Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ
SPCXSpaceX
IPO'd 12 Jun 2026
$118.24+2.59%
1D Range $110.85 — $118.46
1M Range $115.26 — $170.86
Mkt Capi$1.55T IPO-day Vali$2.10T IPO-to-Datei−26.5% Floati365.9M · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a P/E FwdiFY27E · 219x RSI(14)i36% from ATHi−47.6%

04.3Indices

Bearishi
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

A risk-off session is hitting every major US benchmark, with the Nasdaq down 2.15% and the S&P 500 off 1.21% as tech-heavy names drag cap-weighted indices harder than small caps. Notably, the equal-weight RSP is outpacing the cap-weighted S&P 500 YTD by 1.87 percentage points (+9.88% vs +8.02%), meaning the average S&P 500 stock is actually holding up better than the index itself, a reversal of the Mag7-concentration pattern seen earlier this year. VIX has jumped 12.38% to 18.7 and MOVE is up nearly 4%, signaling a broad repricing of risk across asset classes. Global markets are also lower, with the Nikkei down 2.93% and FTSE off 0.73%, confirming this is not a US-isolated move.

US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,408.30−1.21%
1D Range 7,376.00 — 7,450.12
1M Range 7,354.03 — 7,575.39
50-DMAi−0.8% 200-DMAi+5.8% RSI(14)i44 YTDi+8.0% % from ATHi−2.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.67
IXICNasdaq Comp.
25,137.69−2.15%
1D Range 24,954.77 — 25,358.28
1M Range 25,137.69 — 26,281.61
50-DMAi−3.7% 200-DMAi+5.0% RSI(14)i40 YTDi+8.2% % from ATHi−7.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.43
DJIDow Jones Ind.
51,711.65−0.97%
1D Range 51,542.06 — 51,885.14
1M Range 51,711.65 — 53,055.91
50-DMAi+0.6% 200-DMAi+5.8% RSI(14)i46 YTDi+6.9% % from ATHi−2.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.60
RUTRussell 2000
2,940.16−0.67%
1D Range 2,924.33 — 2,952.54
1M Range 2,940.16 — 3,024.37
50-DMAi+0.4% 200-DMAi+10.4% RSI(14)i47 YTDi+17.2% % from ATHi−3.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.69
SOXXSemiconductors
551.24−0.77%
1D Range 543.81 — 558.09
1M Range 521.81 — 640.76
50-DMAi−3.1% 200-DMAi+39.1% RSI(14)i47 YTDi+75.7% % from ATHi−15.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.21
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
211.92−0.37%
1D Range 211.27 — 212.94
1M Range 210.31 — 215.06
50-DMAi+1.0% 200-DMAi+6.6% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+9.9% vs SPX YTDi+1.9pp Cap-weight sharei-23%
VIXiVolatility Idx
18.70+12.38%
1D Range 17.67 — 18.70
1M Range 15.03 — 18.89
50-DMAi+8.0% 200-DMAi0.0% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+28.9%
MOVEiMOVE Index
70.88+3.99%
5D Range 68.16 — 77.77
1M Range 65.39 — 77.77
50-DMAi−1.5% 200-DMAi−1.7% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+13.7%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
113.49+0.02%
5D Range 113.47 — 114.04
1M Range 112.57 — 114.67
50-DMAi+0.7% 200-DMAi+1.5% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+2.1%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,639.17−0.73%
1D Range 10,610.38 — 10,720.33
1M Range 10,472.45 — 10,716.97
50-DMAi+1.8% 200-DMAi+4.6% RSI(14)i57 YTDi+6.9% % from ATHi−2.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.62
N225Nikkei 225
64,474.37−2.93%
1D Range 64,201.03 — 65,720.81
1M Range 64,141.12 — 72,366.34
50-DMAi−3.6% 200-DMAi+14.3% RSI(14)i41 YTDi+24.4% % from ATHi−11.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.94
HSIHang Seng
24,897.50−1.24%
1D Range 24,825.00 — 25,013.00
1M Range 22,671.87 — 25,210.82
50-DMAi+0.9% 200-DMAi−3.4% RSI(14)i56 YTDi−5.5% % from ATHi−11.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.44
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
200.61−1.23%
1D Range 199.81 — 201.53
1M Range 197.36 — 204.75
50-DMAi−0.8% 200-DMAi+5.2% RSI(14)i45 YTDi+7.6% % from ATHi−2.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.58
EEMMSCI Emerging
64.60−0.60%
1D Range 63.99 — 65.03
1M Range 63.29 — 68.41
50-DMAi−3.4% 200-DMAi+7.6% RSI(14)i45 YTDi+14.9% % from ATHi−9.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.44
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
40.4Overvalued
−1.27% today
Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−8.5%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
28.5Overvalued
−1.27% today
Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP
218.1Overvalued
 
Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.6%
Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst
Utilities+1.45%
Healthcare+1.42%
Industrials+1.15%
Financials+0.98%
Real Estate+0.82%
Staples+0.79%
Materials+0.38%
Tech+0.23%
Telecom−0.80%
Energy−1.18%
Discretionary−2.30%

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

Offered
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Nominal Treasury yields are pushing higher across the curve, with the 2-year up 5 basis points to 4.31% and the 10-year adding 4 basis points to 4.67%, while the 30-year edges up 2 basis points to 5.15%, steepening the 2s10s spread to +36 basis points. The rise in nominals is being driven by real rates, with the 10-year TIPS real yield up 2 basis points to 2.39% while the 10-year breakeven holds flat at 2.28%, meaning inflation expectations are not the culprit today. Credit spreads are essentially unchanged, with HY OAS at 268 basis points (-1 bp) and IG OAS flat at 78 basis points, suggesting the equity selloff has not yet transmitted into credit stress.

US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.31%+5 bp
5D Range 4.16 — 4.31
1M Range 4.07 — 4.31
5-day Δ+18 bp YTD Δ+84 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.67%+4 bp
5D Range 4.55 — 4.67
1M Range 4.38 — 4.67
10–2 spread+36 bp YTD Δ+48 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
5.15%+2 bp
5D Range 5.06 — 5.15
1M Range 4.86 — 5.15
5-day Δ+7 bp YTD Δ+29 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.64T -$24.6B (1d)
+7.9% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.35T +11.4% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.41%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.41% +0.10pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.6%
~$10.15T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.39% +2 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.28% 0 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.68% −1 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.78% 0 bp
tight · late-cycle

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Heating
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Truflation's daily year-over-year read sits at 2.08%, up 27 basis points over the past month and trending warmer, with transport adding 78 basis points to the headline. The official BLS CPI print of 3.5% remains 145 basis points above the daily signal, a gap that underscores how much the lagged monthly series can diverge from higher-frequency data.

2.08%
Daily −0.04 pp
1-mo +0.27 pp
1-yr +0.06 pp
Daily Data By
About the number
Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.
Truflation data as of 2026-07-23
vs BLS CPI official 3.5% (Jun 2026, monthly · lagged) −1.45 ppbelow official print next BLS CPI: 12 Aug 2026

Index Components

12 basket categories · sorted by weight
Category Inflation (YoY)i Contributioni Trend (1-mo)i
Housing
23.1% of basket
 +0.15%
+0.03 pp
Flat +0.04 pp
Transport
19.8% of basket
 +3.93%
+0.78 pp
Heating +0.54 pp
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
 +2.03%
+0.31 pp
Heating +1.43 pp
Health
8.8% of basket
 +0.71%
+0.06 pp
Cooling −0.28 pp
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
 +3.20%
+0.23 pp
Cooling −0.08 pp
Utilities
6.0% of basket
 +3.19%
+0.19 pp
Heating +0.35 pp
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
 +2.79%
+0.15 pp
Heating +0.15 pp
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
 +5.01%
+0.19 pp
Cooling −0.60 pp
Other
3.4% of basket
 +3.17%
+0.11 pp
Heating +0.08 pp
Communications
3.3% of basket
 -2.47%
−0.08 pp
Cooling −2.42 pp
Education
2.3% of basket
 +2.69%
+0.06 pp
Cooling −0.77 pp
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
 +4.25%
+0.08 pp
Heating +0.51 pp

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Offered
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

The JGB curve is steepening, with the 10-year yield rising 3 basis points to 2.78% and the 30-year sitting at 3.93%, while the 2-year holds at 1.50%, leaving the 2s10s spread at a wide +128 basis points. The BoJ policy rate at 1.00% sits well below the 2-year JGB yield, keeping the front end of the curve elevated relative to the policy anchor and maintaining pressure on yen carry-trade funding costs.

JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.50%+5 bp
5D Range 1.44 — 1.50
1M Range 1.38 — 1.50
5-day Δ+6 bp YTD Δ+30 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.78%+3 bp
5D Range 2.71 — 2.78
1M Range 2.61 — 2.87
10–2 spread+128 bp YTD Δ+66 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
3.93%+3 bp
5D Range 3.86 — 3.93
1M Range 3.76 — 4.01
5-day Δ+13 bp YTD Δ+54 bp

04.7Commodities

Mixed
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy is broadly bid, with Brent up 2.33% and WTI gaining 1.14%, while natural gas adds 1.82%, making energy the clear outperformer in today's session. Precious metals are giving back modest ground, with Gold (XAU) slipping 0.53% to $4,028.7 and Silver off 0.87% to $57.55.

CLWTI Crude
$84.38+1.14%
5D Range $80.03 — $84.38
1M Range $69.60 — $84.38
50-DMAi−4.0% 200-DMAi+11.2% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+47.5%
COBrent
$86.99+2.33%
5D Range $81.23 — $86.99
1M Range $68.53 — $86.99
50-DMAi−2.2% 200-DMAi+6.3% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+40.4%
NGNatural Gas
$2.80+1.82%
5D Range $2.75 — $2.83
1M Range $2.73 — $3.34
50-DMAi−8.4% 200-DMAi−24.7% RSI(14)i40 YTDi−0.7%
XAUGold
$4,028.70−0.53%
5D Range $4,025.30 — $4,054.10
1M Range $3,992.10 — $4,209.00
50-DMAi−4.7% 200-DMAi−12.3% RSI(14)i43 YTDi−8.1%
XAGSilver
$57.55−0.87%
5D Range $57.36 — $58.16
1M Range $56.19 — $63.52
50-DMAi−14.1% 200-DMAi−17.8% RSI(14)i41 YTDi−20.9%

04.8Crypto Assets

Bearish
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Crypto is holding in a narrow range relative to broader equity weakness, with Bitcoin up a marginal 0.26% to $65,215.5 while Ethereum and Solana dip less than half a percent each. Total crypto market cap is down 0.82% over 24 hours and DeFi TVL has fallen 1.51%, suggesting some capital rotation out of on-chain activity. BTC dominance at 56.8% reflects continued preference for the largest asset over altcoins. Spot ETF flows are a mixed signal: BTC saw $225M in outflows on the day while ETH attracted $26M in inflows, though the 7-day window shows BTC still net positive at +$406M. The Fear and Greed Index at 28 (Fear) and BTC perp funding at +7.30% APR present a somewhat contradictory picture, with sentiment cautious but leveraged longs still paying a meaningful premium.

BTCBitcoin
$65,215.50+0.26%
1D Range $64,744.03 — $65,420.94
1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,516.18
50-DMAi+3.4% 200-DMAi−10.3% 200-WMAi($63,327.07) +3.0% RSI(14)i55 % from ATHi−48.2% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.20
ETHEthereum
$1,872.42−0.24%
1D Range $1,864.28 — $1,880.45
1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,933.54
50-DMAi+8.1% 200-DMAi−13.6% 200-WMAi($2,478.23) −24.4% RSI(14)i56 % from ATHi−61.6% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.20
SOLSolana
$75.55−0.40%
1D Range $75.32 — $75.97
1M Range $67.61 — $82.28
50-DMAi+3.1% 200-DMAi−15.4% 200-WMAi($107.78) −29.9% RSI(14)i47 % from ATHi−74.2% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.49
ENAEthena
$0.0897−1.47%
1D Range $0.0880 — $0.0927
1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0902
50-DMAi+12.1% 200-DMAi−18.5% RSI(14)i62 % from ATHi−94.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.71
HYPEHyperliquid
$58.36+1.43%
1D Range $57.30 — $58.52
1M Range $58.24 — $71.29
50-DMAi−9.7% 200-DMAi+32.1% RSI(14)i39 % from ATHi−22.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.10
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001814−4.70%
1D Range $0.001813 — $0.001956
1M Range $0.001199 — $0.002024
50-DMAi+20.9% 200-DMAi−4.5% RSI(14)i58 % from ATHi−78.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.34
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.30T +0.26%
56.8% of total
ETH Mcap
$226.0B −0.24%
9.8% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$309.8B −0.42%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.30T −0.82%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$60.7B +0.57%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$6.6B +1.48%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$212.8B +0.39%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$3.3B −5.49%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$75.8B −1.51%
all chains
Lending TVL
$40.1B −1.41%
money markets
DEX TVL
$11.4B −1.44%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.16%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+7.30% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+0.21% APR balanced
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.60 large traders long
1.60× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
28 Fear
Δ −3 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.52% −0.10 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.83%
USDTi
3.20% −0.42 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.20%
DAIi
4.16% +0.54 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 4.17%
WETHi
1.85% +0.01 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.84%

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Distributing
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Corporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial, with tracked wallets holding 1,285,045 BTC (6.12% of supply, ~$83.8B), 7,788,049 ETH (6.45% of supply), and 19,340,975 SOL (3.32% of supply). Daily spot ETF flows show BTC with $225M in outflows and SOL with $1M out, while ETH bucked the trend with $26M in inflows. The 7-day picture is more constructive across the board, with BTC at +$406M, ETH at +$211M, and SOL at +$9M, indicating today's BTC outflow is a single-day deviation within a positive weekly trend.

Asset Total Held USD Value % of Supply Top Public Holders
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
 1.29 M BTC $83.8 B 6.12% Strategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
 7.79 M ETH $14.6 B 6.45% BitMine Immersion 5.78M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎
Solana
SOL
 19.34 M SOL $1.5 B 3.32% Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Public-company treasuries3 assets
₿BitcoinBTC
$83.8 B
1.29 M BTC
% of supply6.12%
Top public holdersStrategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
ΞEthereumETH
$14.6 B
7.79 M ETH
% of supply6.45%
Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.78M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎SolanaSOL
$1.5 B
19.34 M SOL
% of supply3.32%
Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB… Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM) 1. IBIT BlackRock $48.1 B 2. FBTC Fidelity $10.2 B 3. GBTC Grayscale $8.8 B 4. BTC Grayscale Mini $3.8 B 5. BITB Bitwise $2.4 B + 8 more Flow data as of 23 Jul 2026
AUM
$78.0 B
24h Flow−$225 M
7-day Flow+$406 M
YTD Flowi−$4.92 B
ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH… Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM) 1. ETHA BlackRock $5.5 B 2. ETH Grayscale Mini $1.6 B 3. ETHE Grayscale $1.5 B 4. FETH Fidelity $750.9 M 5. ETHB BlackRock $539.9 M + 5 more Flow data as of 23 Jul 2026
AUM
$10.2 B
24h Flow+$26 M
7-day Flow+$211 M
YTD Flowi−$1.07 B
SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL… Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM) 1. BSOL Bitwise $626.0 M 2. GSOL Grayscale $102.0 M 3. VSOL VanEck $15.0 M 4. SOEZ Franklin $8.5 M 5. TSOL VanEck $3.2 M + 1 more Flow data as of 22 Jul 2026
AUM
$754.7 M
24h Flow−$1 M
7-day Flow+$9 M
YTD Flowi−$23 M

04.10Smart Money Positioning

Trimming
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

The biggest add over the past 24 hours is Uniswap (UNI) at +$287K net-of-price, bringing tracked holdings to $154.3M across 26 wallets. The biggest trim is Superstate USTB (tokenized short-term US Treasury fund) at -$760K, reducing that position to $16.9M. Overall, the cohort shed a net $448K in 24 hours, a modest reduction in aggregate exposure.

Total tracked$852.4M
Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist
Net change 24h-$448K
Data by
Paid per call x402by
Largest holdings10 tokens · $850.2M held
# Token · what it is Held · wallets Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. Mkt cap
1
AETHWETHEthereum
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
$186.3M
3 wallets
 -$314K +$299K -$3.85M $4.35B
2
UNIEthereum
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
$154.3M
26 wallets
 +$287K +$41K +$1.29M $2.37B
3
LITEthereum
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
$130.0M
4 wallets
 +$287K +$175K -$83K $532.0M
4
ONDOEthereum
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
$119.9M
13 wallets
 +$14K +$65K +$969K $1.97B
5
BGBEthereum
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
$94.1M
4 wallets
 +$79K -$102K +$499K $1.16B
6
WLDEthereum
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
$73.8M
21 wallets
 -$208K -$512K -$1.25M $1.36B
7
WLFIEthereum
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
$42.3M
1 wallet
 +$228K +$11K +$431K $1.79B
8
MORPHOEthereum
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
$17.4M
5 wallets
 -$30K -$6.12M +$1.24M $1.29B
9
USTBEthereum
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
$16.9M
6 wallets
 -$760K -$1.31M +$4.35M $827.2M
10
STETHEthereum
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
$15.3M
10 wallets
 -$30K -$257K +$150K $17.51B
1AETHWETHEthereum
$186.3M
3 wallets
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
24h-$314K 7d+$299K
2UNIEthereum
$154.3M
26 wallets
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
24h+$287K 7d+$41K
3LITEthereum
$130.0M
4 wallets
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
24h+$287K 7d+$175K
4ONDOEthereum
$119.9M
13 wallets
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
24h+$14K 7d+$65K
5BGBEthereum
$94.1M
4 wallets
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
24h+$79K 7d-$102K
6WLDEthereum
$73.8M
21 wallets
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
24h-$208K 7d-$512K
7WLFIEthereum
$42.3M
1 wallet
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
24h+$228K 7d+$11K
8MORPHOEthereum
$17.4M
5 wallets
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
24h-$30K 7d-$6.12M
9USTBEthereum
$16.9M
6 wallets
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
24h-$760K 7d-$1.31M
10STETHEthereum
$15.3M
10 wallets
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
24h-$30K 7d-$257K
Small-cap watch5 tokens · $2.2M held
# Token · what it is Held · wallets Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. Mkt cap
1
PENGUSolana
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
$1.3M
12 wallets
 -$1K -$1K +$54K $382.2M
2
USELESSSolana
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
$415.0K
6 wallets
 -$108 +$1K +$10K $59.9M
3
PUMPSolana
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
$215.8K
13 wallets
 +$3K +$79K -$2.63M $723.2M
4
DRVEthereum
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
$164.5K
10 wallets
 +$469 -$660 +$279 $116.3M
5
PEARArbitrum
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
$135.7K
2 wallets
 -$274 -$687 -$117K $8.3M
1PENGUSolana
$1.3M
12 wallets
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
24h-$1K 7d-$1K
2USELESSSolana
$415.0K
6 wallets
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
24h-$108 7d+$1K
3PUMPSolana
$215.8K
13 wallets
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
24h+$3K 7d+$79K
4DRVEthereum
$164.5K
10 wallets
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
24h+$469 7d-$660
5PEARArbitrum
$135.7K
2 wallets
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
24h-$274 7d-$687

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ
Asset Last Trendi Supporti Resistancei RSIi RSI Status Signal
SPX S&P 500 7,408.30 Sideways 7,002.37 7,471.79 44 Neutral Holdconf 50%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp. 25,137.69 Sideways 23,932.93 26,100.19 40 Neutral Holdconf 50%
DXY Dollar Index 113.49 USD ↑ 112.65 114.04 50 Neutral Sellconf 75%
VIX Volatility 18.70 Sideways 17.32 18.70 55 Neutral Holdconf 50%
US10Y US 10Y Yield 4.67% Yields ↑ 4.51% 4.67% 66 Neutral Sell bondsconf 65%
CL WTI Crude $84.38 Sideways $75.90 $87.86 58 Neutral Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold $4,029 Bearish $4,025 $4,227 43 Neutral Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin $65,216 Sideways $63,081 $72,687 55 Neutral Holdconf 50%
ETH Ethereum $1,872 Sideways $1,733 $2,166 56 Neutral Holdconf 50%

06Key Events

Next 7 days
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

The week's heaviest macro weight lands on July 30, when Q2 GDP, Core PCE, Personal Spending, and Personal Income all print simultaneously at 12:30 ET. On the earnings front, Visa (V) and Coca-Cola (KO) report July 28, followed by Microsoft, Meta, and Procter and Gamble (PG) on July 29, then Apple, Amazon, and Mastercard (MA) on July 30. With AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and META all in the queue and both down sharply today, the earnings prints carry elevated market-moving potential.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

  • Mon
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun)Est: 2.30 % · prev -4.50 % High
  • Tue
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)prev 91.20 High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jun)Est: 0.10 % · prev 0.30 % High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)Est: 1.60 % · prev 2.10 % High
  • Today
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     New Home Sales (Jun)Est: 0.61 M · prev 0.58 M Medium
  • Mon
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Jun)Est: 1.40 % · prev 1.30 % Medium
  • Tue
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Goods Trade Balance Adv (Jun)Est: -93 B · prev -105.9 B Medium
  • Tue
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Goods Trade Balance (Jun)prev -105.9 B Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Price Index YoY (Jun)Est: 3.70 % · prev 4.10 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25)prev 187 K Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Price Index MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.40 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     GDP Price Index QoQ (Q2)Est: 3.30 % · prev 3.60 % Medium
  • Mon
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (Jun)Est: 2.10 % · prev -4.60 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jun)Est: 3.20 % · prev 3.40 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Prices QoQ (Q2)Est: 3.10 % · prev 4.40 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Prices QoQ (Q2)Est: 3.30 % · prev 4.60 % Low
1 / 3

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

  • Tue · After close V — VisaEPS est $3.22 (+8% YoY) · Rev est $11.4B (+12% YoY) High
  • Tue · After close KO — Coca-ColaEPS est $0.92 (+6% YoY) · Rev est $13.2B (+5% YoY) High
  • Wed · After close MSFT — MicrosoftEPS est $4.21 (+15% YoY) · Rev est $87.6B (+15% YoY) High
  • Wed · After close META — Meta PlatformsEPS est $7.20 (+1% YoY) · Rev est $60.2B (+27% YoY) High
  • Wed · After close PG — Procter & GambleEPS est $1.43 (−3% YoY) · Rev est $21.4B (+2% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close AAPL — AppleEPS est $1.88 (+20% YoY) · Rev est $108.8B (+16% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close AMZN — AmazonEPS est $1.82 (+8% YoY) · Rev est $196.7B (+17% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close MA — MastercardEPS est $4.77 (+15% YoY) · Rev est $9.1B (+12% YoY) High
  • Fri, Jul 31 · After close XOM — ExxonMobilEPS est $3.61 (+120% YoY) · Rev est $110.0B (+38% YoY) High
  • Fri, Jul 31 · After close CVX — ChevronEPS est $5.42 (+206% YoY) · Rev est $63.5B (+43% YoY) High
1 / 2

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Mid-cyclei
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

A reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018), reassessed about every two weeks.

Today's read

Capital Markets, Lenders, Terms, Capital, and Yield Spreads all read warm - reflecting open financing windows, covenant-lite dominance, and tight spreads - while Outlook, Interest Rates, and Investors lean cold, with AAII bearish sentiment running above historical norms and real rates still meaningfully positive.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 15 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Trim
Refreshed 24 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Trim. Tech carnage, VIX spike, and geopolitical risk argue for reducing exposure now

Today's tape is a warning, not an opportunity. Tesla fell 14.52% and Alphabet dropped 7.13% in a single session, dragging the S&P 500 down 1.21% to 7,408. The VIX surged 12.38% to 18.70, and the MOVE index (bond volatility) climbed nearly 4%. News sentiment hit -42, with 88% of stories bearish: Middle East conflict escalation, a suspected oil tanker incident near the Strait of Hormuz, and a broad tech selloff are the dominant drivers per Nasdaq.com. The sector rotation tells the same story - defensive Utilities gained 1.45% while Consumer Cyclical dropped 2.30%, a 3.75-percentage-point spread that is a textbook late-risk-off rotation signal. The cycle reads Mid-cycle, which normally supports holding, but the overvalued equity backdrop (trailing price-to-earnings at 28.49 versus a 16.23 long-run mean) leaves no margin for error when geopolitical shocks arrive. High-yield credit spreads (HY OAS at 268 basis points) remain historically tight, masking fragility. Bitcoin ETF outflows of $225 million in 24 hours and a crypto Fear and Greed score of 28 suggest crypto is approaching a contrarian setup, but not yet. Hold cash, reduce tech exposure, and wait for cleaner entry.

24h Bias
Risk-off; reduce tech, hold cash
Equities
Trim mega-cap tech into weakness
Bonds
Hold long end; 30Y at 5.15% attractive
Commodities
Hold gold; avoid chasing oil spike
Crypto
Wait; Fear at 28 but flows still negative
Vol hedge
Add VIX calls; geopolitical risk elevated