01Daily Summary

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

A sharp equity selloff drove the S&P 500 down 1.01% to 7,458, while the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) surged 12.19% to 18.77 - a clear stress signal. West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped 9.32% to $79.20, injecting stagflation risk into an already stretched macro backdrop: PCE inflation sits at 4.07% year-over-year against a Fed funds band of 3.50-3.75%. Crypto held near flat but the Fear and Greed Index collapsed to 25 (Extreme Fear), and the equity equivalent reads 37.1 (Fear). Late-cycle conditions with overvalued multiples leave little cushion.

S&P 500−1.01%NASDAQ−1.40%US10Y+2 bpWTI+9.32%Gold+0.67%BTC+0.04%ETH+0.14%DXY−0.13%VIX+12.19%

Driver:WTI crude oil surged 9.32% to $79.20, reigniting stagflation concerns against persistent above-target PCE inflation of 4.07%.
Cross-asset:Equities fell, volatility spiked, gold rose 0.67% to $4,018.80, crypto was flat, and the dollar edged fractionally lower.
Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 5.09%; 2s10s spread 41 basis points; TIPS real yield 2.35%; 10-year breakeven 2.24%; high-yield OAS (credit spreads) steady at 271 basis points.
Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 25 (Extreme Fear); equity Fear and Greed at 37.1; Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.53; news sentiment score deeply bearish at -39.
Forward bias:No high-impact US data on the 48-hour calendar; a sustained oil pullback or softer inflation signal would be required to flip the regime call toward neutral.

02Macro Snapshot

Mixed signals

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Benchmark Rates	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Fed Ratei	3.50 – 3.75 %	unchanged	17 Jun 2026	29 Jul 2026	Fed funds at 3.50 - 3.75 % signal steady policy for risk assets.
ECB Ratei	2.25 %	+25 bp	11 Jun 2026	23 Jul 2026	ECB rate at 2.25 % after June hike pressures European risk assets.
BoJ Ratei	1.00 %	+25 bp	16 Jun 2026	31 Jul 2026	BoJ rate at 1.00 % keeps JPY carry trade attractive for global risk.
SOFRi	3.62 %	−2 bp	daily	tomorrow	SOFR at 3.62 % down 2 bp eases short-end USD funding conditions.
IPOR USDCi	3.55 %	−7 bp	real-time	—	USDC IPOR at 3.55 % below SOFR signals deleveraging in onchain USD.
IPOR WETHi	1.65 %	−1 bp	real-time	—	WETH IPOR at 1.65 % shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei	2.21 %	—	real-time	—	ETH staking yield at 2.21 % reflects steady validator demand.

US Inflation	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
TruCPI-US (headline)i	2.02 %	+0.08 pp	daily	tomorrow	Truflation CPI at 2.02 % runs cooler than official prints.
CPI YoY (headline)i	3.5 %	−0.7 pp	14 Jul 2026	12 Aug 2026	Headline CPI at 3.5 % keeps Fed cautious on rate cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i	2.6 %	−0.3 pp	14 Jul 2026	12 Aug 2026	Core CPI at 2.6 % shows easing underlying inflation pressure.
PCE YoY (headline)i	4.1 %	+0.3 pp	25 Jun 2026	30 Jul 2026	PCE at 4.1 % remains above target and delays Fed easing.
PCE YoY (core)i	3.4 %	+0.1 pp	25 Jun 2026	30 Jul 2026	Core PCE at 3.4 % stays sticky well above the 2 % target.
PPI YoY (headline)i	5.5 %	−0.5 pp	15 Jul 2026	13 Aug 2026	PPI at 5.5 % signals upstream inflation still elevated versus CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i	4.7 %	+0.1 pp	15 Jul 2026	13 Aug 2026	Core PPI at 4.7 % indicates persistent upstream price pressures.

Euro Area Inflationi	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Euro Area	2.7 %	−0.4 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Euro area HICP at 2.7 % keeps ECB on hold near target.
Romania	9.2 %	−0.5 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Romania HICP at 9.2 % reflects fiscal tightening and tax hikes.
Bulgaria	5.2 %	−1.0 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Bulgaria HICP at 5.2 % aligns with euro convergence criteria post 2026 entry.
Poland	3.0 %	−0.4 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Poland HICP at 3.0 % supports steady central bank policy stance.
Germany	2.4 %	−0.3 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	Germany HICP at 2.4 % anchors euro area inflation near target.
France	2.0 %	−0.8 pp	17 Jul 2026	19 Aug 2026	France HICP at 2.0 % sits at the ECB target level.

Labor	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m)	158.98 M jobs	+57 k	2 Jul 2026	7 Aug 2026	NFP gain of 57 k signals labor market cooling.
Unemployment Ratei	4.2 %	−0.1 pp	2 Jul 2026	7 Aug 2026	Unemployment at 4.2 % points to rising labor market slack.

Activity	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY)	+1.1 %	−0.4 pp	17 Jul 2026	18 Aug 2026	Industrial production up 1.1 % YoY indicates modest manufacturing growth.
Retail Salesi (m/m)	+0.2 %	−0.8 pp	16 Jul 2026	14 Aug 2026	Retail sales up 0.2 % m/m show resilient consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi	53.3	+0.6	June 2026	—	ISM manufacturing at 53.
ISM Services PMIi	54.0	+0.4	June 2026	—

Yield Curve	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi	41 bp	—	daily	tomorrow	Positive curve. Recession odds receding.

Sentiment	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity)	37 (Fear)	−5	daily	tomorrow
Crypto Fear & Greedi	25 (Extreme Fear)	−2	daily	tomorrow
News Sentimenti	−39 (Fear)	−33	every 30 min	—

03News Sentiment

Fear

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −39 to +44 · current −39 (Fear) · −33 24h

7 days ago today

Direction

bull 0% bear 100% ± 12% uncertainty

Coverage

macro 100% crypto 0% mixed 0%

What's driving today's news sentiment Top 1 · sorted by impact

0 Neutral medium-term

Chewy expands veterinary health services, limited crypto market relevance

Chewy is broadening beyond online retail by integrating physical veterinary clinics and health services, reflecting consumer sector growth with minimal relevance for crypto market dynamics.

nasdaq.comconf 60% Market-Wide

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bearish

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

The Magnificent Seven are broadly in the red today, with only Apple managing a fractional gain of +0.14% while the rest of the cohort falls between 1% and nearly 3%. Meta Platforms leads the declines at -2.79%, followed closely by Nvidia at -2.21% and Tesla at -2.61%. An 8-of-9 down day with losses concentrated in the highest-weight names is a meaningful headwind for cap-weighted benchmarks.

AAPLApple

$333.74+0.14%

1D Range $329.00 — $334.98

1M Range $275.15 — $333.74

P/E TTMi40.1 P/E Fwdi34.6 50-DMAi+10.3% 200-DMAi+21.7% RSI(14)i72 YTDi+23.1% % from ATHi−0.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.17

MSFTMicrosoft

$393.82−1.82%

1D Range $389.39 — $398.39

1M Range $352.83 — $401.10

P/E TTMi23.4 P/E Fwdi20.3 50-DMAi−1.9% 200-DMAi−10.4% RSI(14)i52 YTDi−16.7% % from ATHi−29.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.52

GOOGLAlphabet

$346.77−2.17%

1D Range $341.36 — $348.52

1M Range $337.39 — $370.92

P/E TTMi26.2 P/E Fwdi23.4 50-DMAi−6.4% 200-DMAi+7.8% RSI(14)i42 YTDi+10.0% % from ATHi−15.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.26

AMZNAmazon

$247.23−1.06%

1D Range $243.59 — $250.24

1M Range $227.01 — $254.96

P/E TTMi29.3 P/E Fwdi24.5 50-DMAi−1.9% 200-DMAi+5.6% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+9.2% % from ATHi−11.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.62

NVDANVIDIA

$202.81−2.21%

1D Range $197.97 — $206.65

1M Range $192.53 — $212.50

P/E TTMi30.9 P/E Fwdi22.6 50-DMAi−3.4% 200-DMAi+5.4% RSI(14)i48 YTDi+7.4% % from ATHi−14.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.11

METAMeta Platforms

$646.01−2.79%

1D Range $626.00 — $652.20

1M Range $542.87 — $681.31

P/E TTMi23.2 P/E Fwdi18.5 50-DMAi+6.9% 200-DMAi+0.9% RSI(14)i57 YTDi−0.7% % from ATHi−18.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.05

TSLATesla

$380.84−2.61%

1D Range $377.22 — $385.69

1M Range $375.12 — $425.30

P/E TTMi317.8 P/E Fwdi153.5 50-DMAi−7.1% 200-DMAi−8.7% RSI(14)i43 YTDi−13.1% % from ATHi−23.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.55

INTCIntel

$95.04−2.00%

1D Range $89.59 — $98.05

1M Range $95.04 — $140.94

P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi59.5 50-DMAi−19.0% 200-DMAi+48.1% RSI(14)i36 YTDi+141.3% % from ATHi−33.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.28

AMDAMD

$495.76−1.03%

1D Range $460.21 — $505.88

1M Range $495.76 — $580.91

P/E TTMi161.4 P/E Fwdi37.0 50-DMAi−0.7% 200-DMAi+67.1% RSI(14)i46 YTDi+121.8% % from ATHi−15.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.32

04.2Recent IPOs

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

SPCXSpaceX

IPO'd 12 Jun 2026

$123.99−5.43%

1D Range $122.12 — $130.33

1M Range $123.99 — $191.82

Mkt Capi$1.62T IPO-day Vali$2.10T IPO-to-Datei−23.0% Floati365.9M · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a P/E FwdiFY27E · 197x RSI(14)i36% from ATHi−45.0%

04.3Indices

Bearishi

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

US equities sold off broadly, with the Nasdaq dropping 1.40% and the S&P 500 off 1.01%, while the Russell 2000 held up relatively better at -0.42%, suggesting large-cap tech is the epicenter of today's pressure. VIX surged 12.19% to 18.77, a notable volatility spike that underscores the risk-off character of the session. Internationally, Nikkei's 4.03% drop stands out as the sharpest move, with Hang Seng also down 1.78%, pointing to broad global equity weakness. On breadth, the equal-weight RSP is outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 by 1.90 percentage points YTD (+10.63% vs +8.74%), meaning the average S&P 500 stock is actually ahead of the index - a sign that Mag7 concentration is dragging on the cap-weighted benchmark rather than lifting it.

US Equity Benchmarks

SPXS&P 500

7,457.69−1.01%

1D Range 7,431.26 — 7,498.47

1M Range 7,354.03 — 7,575.39

50-DMAi−0.1% 200-DMAi+6.7% RSI(14)i48 YTDi+8.7% % from ATHi−2.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.72

IXICNasdaq Comp.

25,520.24−1.40%

1D Range 25,250.63 — 25,703.01

1M Range 25,297.62 — 26,517.93

50-DMAi−2.4% 200-DMAi+6.9% RSI(14)i44 YTDi+9.8% % from ATHi−6.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.53

DJIDow Jones Ind.

52,146.42−0.77%

1D Range 51,986.74 — 52,610.97

1M Range 51,492.56 — 53,055.91

50-DMAi+1.8% 200-DMAi+6.9% RSI(14)i52 YTDi+7.8% % from ATHi−1.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.66

RUTRussell 2000

2,962.22−0.42%

1D Range 2,934.12 — 2,979.32

1M Range 2,917.98 — 3,024.37

50-DMAi+1.4% 200-DMAi+11.7% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+18.1% % from ATHi−2.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.75

SOXXSemiconductors

521.81−1.64%

1D Range 498.54 — 533.18

1M Range 521.81 — 655.01

50-DMAi−7.9% 200-DMAi+33.5% RSI(14)i41 YTDi+66.3% % from ATHi−20.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.14

Risk & Breadth Gauges

RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt

213.37−0.79%

1D Range 213.05 — 215.95

1M Range 208.89 — 215.06

50-DMAi+2.0% 200-DMAi+7.5% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+10.6% vs SPX YTDi+1.9pp Cap-weight sharei-22%

VIXiVolatility Idx

18.77+12.19%

1D Range 17.68 — 19.50

1M Range 15.03 — 19.49

50-DMAi+8.4% 200-DMAi+0.4% RSI(14)i56 YTDi+29.4%

MOVEiMOVE Index

69.55+0.96%

5D Range 65.76 — 72.41

1M Range 65.39 — 73.95

50-DMAi−3.7% 200-DMAi−3.7% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+11.5%

DXYTrade-Wt. USD

113.69−0.13%

5D Range 113.69 — 114.22

1M Range 112.34 — 114.67

50-DMAi+1.2% 200-DMAi+1.7% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+2.3%

World Markets

FTSEFTSE 100

10,600.37+0.27%

1D Range 10,514.96 — 10,623.69

1M Range 10,363.27 — 10,679.03

50-DMAi+1.6% 200-DMAi+4.4% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+6.5% % from ATHi−3.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.55

N225Nikkei 225

64,141.12−4.03%

1D Range 62,704.60 — 66,441.77

1M Range 64,141.12 — 72,366.34

50-DMAi−3.8% 200-DMAi+14.3% RSI(14)i39 YTDi+23.7% % from ATHi−11.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.00

HSIHang Seng

24,562.24−1.78%

1D Range 24,409.74 — 25,166.56

1M Range 22,671.87 — 25,008.61

50-DMAi−0.8% 200-DMAi−4.8% RSI(14)i55 YTDi−6.7% % from ATHi−12.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.23

Global Equity Baskets

URTHMSCI World

201.90−0.83%

1D Range 201.02 — 202.59

1M Range 197.36 — 204.75

50-DMAi−0.1% 200-DMAi+6.0% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+8.3% % from ATHi−2.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.55

EEMMSCI Emerging

63.29−1.40%

1D Range 62.01 — 63.89

1M Range 63.29 — 71.21

50-DMAi−5.7% 200-DMAi+5.8% RSI(14)i39 YTDi+12.5% % from ATHi−11.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.30

Valuations

CAPE 10iShiller P/E

41.5Overvalued

−1.01% today

Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−6.0%

Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)

32.1Overvalued

−1.01% today

Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)

Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP

218.1Overvalued

Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.6%

Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst

Real Estate+1.31%

Tech+1.05%

Energy+0.48%

Utilities+0.34%

Telecom+0.04%

Discretionary−0.10%

Healthcare−0.22%

Financials−0.51%

Industrials−0.85%

Materials−1.36%

Staples−1.71%

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

Offered

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Nominal yields edged higher across the curve, with the 2-year at 4.16% (+3 bp) and the 10-year at 4.57% (+2 bp), leaving the 2s10s spread at +41 bp - a modestly steeper posture. Real rates moved in lockstep, with the 10-year TIPS real yield rising 3 bp to 2.35% while the 10-year breakeven added 2 bp to 2.24%, meaning the yield backup is driven by real rates rather than inflation re-pricing. Credit spreads are essentially unchanged: HY OAS holds at 271 bp and IG OAS tightened 1 bp to 78 bp, suggesting credit markets are not yet reading today's equity selloff as a stress event.

US2YiTreasury 2Y

4.16%+3 bp

5D Range 4.13 — 4.26

1M Range 4.05 — 4.26

5-day Δ0 bp YTD Δ+69 bp

US10YiTreasury 10Y

4.57%+2 bp

5D Range 4.55 — 4.62

1M Range 4.38 — 4.62

10–2 spread+41 bp YTD Δ+38 bp

US30YiTreasury 30Y

5.09%+1 bp

5D Range 5.06 — 5.10

1M Range 4.86 — 5.10

5-day Δ+4 bp YTD Δ+23 bp

Fiscal

US Debt & Servicing

Total Public Debti

$39.52T +$30.2B (1d)

+7.8% YoY

Annual Interest (gross)i

$1.35T +11.2% YoY

gross · avg rate 3.41%

Rate & Rollover Risk

Wtd Avg Rate on Debti

3.41% +0.10pp YoY

on total interest-bearing debt

Maturing < 1 Yeari

25.7%

~$10.15T · refinancing-risk gauge

Macro Bond

Real Rates & Credit

Real Rates & Inflation Expectations

10Y TIPS Reali

2.35% +3 bp

10Y nominal − inflation expectations

10Y Breakeveni

2.24% +2 bp

market-implied 10Y CPI

Credit Spreads

HY OASi

2.71% 0 bp

ICE BofA US HY

IG OASi

0.78% −1 bp

tight · late-cycle

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Heating

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Truflation's daily year-over-year read sits at 2.02%, up 0.21 percentage points over the past month and trending warmer, with transport adding 0.67 pp to the headline. The official BLS CPI remains at 3.5%, leaving a 1.51 pp gap above the real-time signal - a gap that has historically closed as the lagged monthly print catches up or down.

2.02%

Daily +0.08 pp

1-mo +0.21 pp

1-yr +0.02 pp

Daily Data By

About the number

Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.

Truflation data as of 2026-07-17

vs BLS CPI official 3.5% (Jun 2026, monthly · lagged) −1.51 ppbelow official print next BLS CPI: 12 Aug 2026

Index Components

12 basket categories · sorted by weight

Category	Inflation (YoY)i	Contributioni	Trend (1-mo)i
Housing 23.1% of basket	+0.12%	+0.03 pp	Heating +0.13 pp
Transport 19.8% of basket	+3.40%	+0.67 pp	Cooling −0.62 pp
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages 15.2% of basket	+2.29%	+0.35 pp	Heating +2.49 pp
Health 8.8% of basket	+0.68%	+0.06 pp	Cooling −0.30 pp
Household Durables & Daily Use Items 7.1% of basket	+3.35%	+0.24 pp	Cooling −0.10 pp
Utilities 6.0% of basket	+3.19%	+0.19 pp	Heating +0.35 pp
Recreation & Culture 5.5% of basket	+2.87%	+0.16 pp	Heating +0.24 pp
Clothing & Footwear 3.8% of basket	+5.12%	+0.19 pp	Cooling −0.54 pp
Other 3.4% of basket	+3.15%	+0.11 pp	Cooling −0.13 pp
Communications 3.3% of basket	-2.47%	−0.08 pp	Cooling −2.42 pp
Education 2.3% of basket	+2.69%	+0.06 pp	Cooling −0.77 pp
Alcohol & Tobacco 1.8% of basket	+4.75%	+0.09 pp	Heating +0.32 pp

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Offered

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

The JGB curve is steep and pushing higher, with the 10-year yield at 2.72% (+2 bp on the day) and the 30-year at 3.86%, while the 2-year sits at 1.44% - well above the Bank of Japan's 1.00% policy rate. The 2s10s spread of +128 bp reflects a sharply upward-sloping curve, which raises the duration cost for yen-funded carry trades parked in longer-dated assets and keeps pressure on the yen-borrowing backdrop.

JP2YiJGB 2Y

1.44%+0 bp

5D Range 1.43 — 1.45

1M Range 1.38 — 1.45

5-day Δ−0 bp YTD Δ+25 bp

JP10YiJGB 10Y

2.72%+2 bp

5D Range 2.70 — 2.79

1M Range 2.61 — 2.87

10–2 spread+128 bp YTD Δ+61 bp

JP30YiJGB 30Y

3.86%+6 bp

5D Range 3.79 — 3.94

1M Range 3.74 — 4.01

5-day Δ−15 bp YTD Δ+47 bp

04.7Commodities

Bullish

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy is the dominant story today, with WTI crude and Brent surging 9.32% and 9.79% respectively, and natural gas adding 3.66% - a broad and sharp energy complex rally. Precious metals are comparatively quiet, with Gold (XAU) up 0.67% to $4,018.80 and Silver adding 0.25% to $56.326.

CLWTI Crude

$79.20+9.32%

5D Range $71.53 — $79.20

1M Range $69.60 — $91.58

50-DMAi−12.2% 200-DMAi+4.9% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+38.4%

COBrent

$81.62+9.79%

5D Range $71.78 — $81.62

1M Range $68.53 — $84.36

50-DMAi−10.7% 200-DMAi+0.3% RSI(14)i53 YTDi+31.7%

NGNatural Gas

$2.83+3.66%

5D Range $2.73 — $3.17

1M Range $2.73 — $3.34

50-DMAi−7.2% 200-DMAi−23.9% RSI(14)i38 YTDi+0.4%

XAUGold

$4,018.80+0.67%

5D Range $3,963.00 — $4,028.90

1M Range $3,992.10 — $4,209.00

50-DMAi−5.8% 200-DMAi−12.6% RSI(14)i40 YTDi−8.4%

XAGSilver

$56.33+0.25%

5D Range $55.00 — $56.48

1M Range $56.19 — $63.52

50-DMAi−18.4% 200-DMAi−19.3% RSI(14)i34 YTDi−22.6%

04.8Crypto Assets

Bullish

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Crypto is holding near flat in a risk-off equity session, with Bitcoin at $63,914.91 (+0.04%), Ethereum at $1,843.15 (+0.14%), and Solana at $75.04 (+0.04%), while total crypto market cap is up just 0.37% over 24 hours. BTC dominance at 56.4% reflects continued capital concentration in the largest asset rather than rotation into alts. Spot ETF flows are constructive - BTC pulled $132M and ETH $37M in the latest session - providing a demand offset to the cautious price action. Perp funding for BTC at +8.16% APR and ETH at +4.49% APR indicates longs are paying, but the crypto fear and greed index at 25 (Extreme Fear) shows sentiment is deeply negative despite the near-flat price.

BTCBitcoin

$63,914.91+0.04%

1D Range $63,854.43 — $63,977.56

1M Range $58,523.93 — $64,988.64

50-DMAi0.0% 200-DMAi−12.9% 200-WMAi($63,090.99) +1.3% RSI(14)i52 % from ATHi−49.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.46

ETHEthereum

$1,843.15+0.14%

1D Range $1,839.04 — $1,845.23

1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,916.76

50-DMAi+5.7% 200-DMAi−16.2% 200-WMAi($2,475.19) −25.5% RSI(14)i57 % from ATHi−62.2% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.37

SOLSolana

$75.04+0.04%

1D Range $74.99 — $75.34

1M Range $67.61 — $82.28

50-DMAi+1.8% 200-DMAi−17.4% 200-WMAi($107.55) −30.2% RSI(14)i47 % from ATHi−74.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.57

ENAEthena

$0.0820+1.43%

1D Range $0.0790 — $0.0828

1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0910

50-DMAi+2.5% 200-DMAi−31.7% RSI(14)i51 % from ATHi−94.6% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.62

HYPEHyperliquid

$59.21−0.72%

1D Range $59.19 — $59.97

1M Range $59.24 — $71.29

50-DMAi−9.7% 200-DMAi+37.3% RSI(14)i40 % from ATHi−21.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.01

PUMPPump.fun

$0.001626−0.91%

1D Range $0.001611 — $0.001707

1M Range $0.001197 — $0.001697

50-DMAi+8.4% 200-DMAi−14.4% RSI(14)i56 % from ATHi−81.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.09

Crypto Market

Macro Indicators

Market Caps & Dominance

BTC Mcapi

$1.28T +0.04%

56.4% of total

ETH Mcap

$222.5B +0.14%

9.8% of total

Stablecoin Mcap

$308.7B +0.08%

circulating supply

Total Crypto Mcap

$2.27T +0.37%

global market cap

Trading Volumes (24h)

CEX Volume (spot)

$60.8B −6.54%

24h · CoinGecko aggregate

DEX Volume (spot)

$6.6B +1.81%

24h · DefiLlama all chains

CEX Volume (perp)

$214.1B −15.21%

24h · derivatives exchanges

Hyperliquid (perp)

$3.2B −20.89%

24h · 230+ markets

DeFi Activity

Global DeFi TVL

$74.9B +0.01%

all chains

Lending TVL

$39.6B +0.19%

money markets

DEX TVL

$11.4B −0.03%

liquidity pools

ETH Staking APR

2.21%

Lido stETH base rate

Leverage & Sentiment

BTC Fundingi

+8.16% APR longs pay

8h · Binance perp

ETH Fundingi

+4.49% APR longs pay

8h · Binance perp

BTC L/S Ratioi

1.53 large traders long

1.53× longs vs shorts

Crypto F&Gi

25 Extreme Fear

Δ −2 vs yesterday · 0-100

IPOR Rates

USDCi

3.55% −0.07 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.76%

USDTi

2.97% −0.65 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.03%

DAIi

4.37% +0.75 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 5.43%

WETHi

1.65% −0.01 pp vs avg

24h avg 1.65%

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Accumulating

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Corporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,285,045 BTC (~$82.1B, 6.12% of supply), 7,779,569 ETH (~$14.3B, 6.45% of supply), and 19,340,975 SOL (~$1.45B, 3.32% of supply) held across tracked entities. Daily spot ETF flows are positive across all three assets - BTC $+132M, ETH $+37M, SOL $+2M - and the 7-day picture shows ETH leading at $+106M versus BTC's $+76M, a notable reversal of the typical BTC-first flow pattern.

Asset	Total Held	USD Value	% of Supply	Top Public Holders
₿ Bitcoin BTC	1.29 M BTC	$82.1 B	6.12%	Strategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ Ethereum ETH	7.78 M ETH	$14.3 B	6.45%	BitMine Immersion 5.77M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎ Solana SOL	19.34 M SOL	$1.5 B	3.32%	Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M

Public-company treasuries3 assets

₿BitcoinBTC

$82.1 B

1.29 M BTC

% of supply6.12%

Top public holdersStrategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k

ΞEthereumETH

$14.3 B

7.78 M ETH

% of supply6.45%

Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.77M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k

◎SolanaSOL

$1.5 B

19.34 M SOL

% of supply3.32%

Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M

Spot ETF Flows

Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP

BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…

AUM

$76.6 B

24h Flow+$132 M

7-day Flow+$76 M

YTD Flowi−$5.19 B

ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…

AUM

$9.9 B

24h Flow+$37 M

7-day Flow+$106 M

YTD Flowi−$1.24 B

SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…

AUM

$742.7 M

24h Flow+$2 M

7-day Flow+$1 M

YTD Flowi−$24 M

04.10Smart Money Positioning

Trimming

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

The biggest 24-hour add is Uniswap (UNI) at +$153K across 26 wallets, while Morpho (MORPHO) is the sharpest trim at -$6.13M, driving the bulk of the aggregate -$7.25M net outflow on the day. Overall positioning remains concentrated in the top five names, led by Aave-wrapped Ether (AETHWETH) at $182.8M and UNI at $143.7M.

Total tracked$835.7M

Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist

Net change 24h-$7.25M

Data by

Paid per call x402by

Largest holdings10 tokens · $833.6M held

#	Token · what it is	Held · wallets	Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot.	Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago.	Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago.	Mkt cap
1	AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)	$182.8M 3 wallets	-$949K	-$2.03M	building	$4.29B
2	UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)	$143.7M 26 wallets	+$153K	-$662K	building	$2.20B
3	LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation	$137.4M 4 wallets	+$89K	+$395K	building	$562.6M
4	ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)	$111.0M 13 wallets	-$116K	+$37K	building	$1.82B
5	BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange	$92.7M 4 wallets	-$172K	-$260K	building	$1.15B
6	WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era	$73.5M 21 wallets	-$200K	-$495K	building	$1.35B
7	WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol	$43.2M 1 wallet	+$765	-$2K	building	$1.83B
8	MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer	$17.5M 5 wallets	-$6.13M	-$49K	building	$1.29B
9	USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund	$16.9M 6 wallets	+$102K	+$519K	building	$762.8M
10	STETHEthereum Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt	$15.0M 10 wallets	-$27K	-$70K	building	$16.95B

1AETHWETHEthereum

$182.8M

3 wallets

Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)

24h-$949K 7d-$2.03M

2UNIEthereum

$143.7M

26 wallets

Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)

24h+$153K 7d-$662K

3LITEthereum

$137.4M

4 wallets

Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation

24h+$89K 7d+$395K

4ONDOEthereum

$111.0M

13 wallets

Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)

24h-$116K 7d+$37K

5BGBEthereum

$92.7M

4 wallets

Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange

24h-$172K 7d-$260K

6WLDEthereum

$73.5M

21 wallets

Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era

24h-$200K 7d-$495K

7WLFIEthereum

$43.2M

1 wallet

World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol

24h+$765 7d-$2K

8MORPHOEthereum

$17.5M

5 wallets

Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer

24h-$6.13M 7d-$49K

9USTBEthereum

$16.9M

6 wallets

Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund

24h+$102K 7d+$519K

10STETHEthereum

$15.0M

10 wallets

Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt

24h-$27K 7d-$70K

Small-cap watch5 tokens · $2.1M held

#	Token · what it is	Held · wallets	Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot.	Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago.	Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago.	Mkt cap
1	PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin	$1.3M 11 wallets	-$2K	+$21K	building	$386.1M
2	USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin	$406.3K 6 wallets	+$1K	+$862	building	$58.7M
3	DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products	$173.2K 10 wallets	-$554	-$276	building	$122.4M
4	PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps	$135.3K 2 wallets	-$559	-$6K	building	$8.3M
5	PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token	$115.5K 14 wallets	-$8K	-$56K	building	$652.6M

1PENGUSolana

$1.3M

11 wallets

Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin

24h-$2K 7d+$21K

2USELESSSolana

$406.3K

6 wallets

Useless Coin: Solana memecoin

24h+$1K 7d+$862

3DRVEthereum

$173.2K

10 wallets

Derive: on-chain options and structured products

24h-$554 7d-$276

4PEARArbitrum

$135.3K

2 wallets

Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps

24h-$559 7d-$6K

5PUMPSolana

$115.5K

14 wallets

Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token

24h-$8K 7d-$56K

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Asset	Last	Trendi	Supporti	Resistancei	RSIi	RSI Status	Signal
SPX S&P 500	7,457.69	Sideways	6,987.23	7,464.88	48	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp.	25,520.24	Sideways	23,877.26	26,140.04	44	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
DXY Dollar Index	113.69	USD ↑	112.36	114.22	54	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
VIX Volatility	18.77	Elevated	18.69	19.50	56	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
US10Y US 10Y Yield	4.57%	Yields ↑	4.49%	4.62%	57	Neutral	Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude	$79.20	Sideways	$75.47	$90.24	50	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold	$4,019	Bearish	$3,963	$4,265	40	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin	$63,915	Sideways	$63,902	$73,393	52	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
ETH Ethereum	$1,843	Sideways	$1,744	$2,200	57	Neutral	Holdconf 50%

06Key Events

Next 7 days

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

No high-impact US macro releases are on the calendar this week, so earnings will set the tone. Alphabet reports Monday July 21 and Tesla follows Tuesday July 22 - two of the most market-moving names in the Magnificent Seven, both of which are already under pressure today.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/18)Est: 212 K · prev 208 K Medium
Fri
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST New Home Sales (Jun)Est: 0.62 M · prev 0.58 M Medium

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

Tue · After close GOOGL — AlphabetEPS est $2.87 (+24% YoY) · Rev est $116.5B (+21% YoY) High
Wed · After close TSLA — TeslaEPS est $0.49 (+22% YoY) · Rev est $26.0B (+16% YoY) High

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Late-cyclei

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

A reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018), reassessed about every two weeks.

Today's read

Economy, Outlook, Lenders, Capital Markets, Capital, Terms, Interest Rates, and Investors all lean warm, reflecting elevated valuations (CAPE 10 at 41.39, Trailing P/E at 31.98), strong manufacturing and services PMIs (54.0 and 54.5), and persistent above-target inflation (4.25% headline CPI). Only Yield Spreads turn cold, with HY OAS at 280 bp and IG OAS at 76 bp signaling credit caution amid otherwise buoyant conditions.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 25 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Refreshed 18 Jul 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Add selectively: crypto fear and oil spike create pockets, but equities remain expensive

Today's tape delivered a clear risk-off signal: the VIX surged 12.2% to 18.77, the S&P 500 fell 1.0% to 7,458, and news sentiment hit a fully bearish reading with headlines per Nasdaq.com describing a broad tech slump. The late-cycle framework is confirmed by stretched valuations and persistent inflation, and consensus is right to be cautious on broad equities. However, two genuine contrarian setups emerge. First, Bitcoin sits just 1.3% above its 200-week moving average at 63,915.91 with the crypto Fear and Greed index at 25 (Extreme Fear), funding rates near zero, and ETF inflows of $132M in 24 hours: asymmetric risk-reward for a small, disciplined position. Second, the 30-year US Treasury at 5.09% with a 10-year real yield of 2.35% offers genuine income. The 3.0-point sector spread (Real Estate +1.3% vs. Consumer Defensive -1.7%) hints at defensive rotation, not broad recovery. Smart money trimmed $6.1M in Morpho. Hold equities; add selectively in long bonds and crypto.

24h Bias

Cautious; vol spike warrants reduced aggression

Equities

Hold; avoid chasing after 1% drawdown

Bonds

Add small at 5.09% on the 30-year

Commodities

Hold gold; wait for WTI to stabilize post-spike

Crypto

Add small Bitcoin near 200-week average

Vol hedge

Hold existing hedges; VIX at 18.77 not peak

Equities Slide as Oil Surges and Fear Spikes

01Daily Summary

02Macro Snapshot

03News Sentiment

04.1Tech Equitiesi

04.2Recent IPOs

04.3Indices

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Index Components

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

04.7Commodities

04.8Crypto Assets

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

04.10Smart Money Positioning

05Technical Dashboard

06Key Events

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

08Daily Alpha

Add selectively: crypto fear and oil spike create pockets, but equities remain expensive