Soft PPI Lifts Rates Hopes, Tech Splits
01Daily Summary
So far today, the headline story is June US Producer Price Index, which printed at -0.3% month-over-month against a flat consensus and a prior reading of +0.6%. That surprise disinflation has softened the dollar and lifted rate-cut expectations, pushing the S&P 500 to 7,545 (up 0.02% intraday). The read is not clean, however: Apple is up 4.2% while Advanced Micro Devices and Intel are each down more than 5%, and the crypto Fear and Greed index sits at 25 (Extreme Fear) despite Bitcoin holding near $65,105.
- Driver:US June PPI came in at -0.3% MoM versus a 0.0% estimate and +0.6% prior, the sharpest downside miss in months.
- Cross-asset:S&P 500 flat, dollar softer (-0.13%), gold down 0.64%, silver off 3.15%, Bitcoin steady near $4,043.60, bonds mixed.
- Bonds & rates:US 30Y yield at 5.10%; 2s10s spread at +36 bp. TIPS real yield rose 4 bp to 2.36%; 10Y breakeven eased 1 bp to 2.25%. HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) widened 3 bp to 272 bp; IPOR USDC rate at 3.63%.
- Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 25 (Extreme Fear); equity Fear and Greed at 44.9 (Fear). VIX at 16.18, down 1.94%. Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.52; funding rates near zero.
- Forward bias:US Retail Sales (Jun) tomorrow at 12:30 UTC and UK GDP (May) at 06:00 UTC. A strong retail print would test today's rate-cut optimism and could flip the regime toward Risk-Off.
02Macro Snapshot
Mixed signals| Benchmark Rates | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Ratei | 3.50 – 3.75 % | unchanged | 17 Jun 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | Rate band at 3.50-3.75 % keeps risk assets range-bound. |
| ECB Ratei | 2.25 % | +25 bp | 11 Jun 2026 | 23 Jul 2026 | ECB hike to 2.25 % pressures European risk assets. |
| BoJ Ratei | 1.00 % | +25 bp | 16 Jun 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 | BoJ rate at 1.00 % sustains attractive JPY carry trade. |
| SOFRi | 3.63 % | +3 bp | daily | tomorrow | SOFR at 3.63 % signals tighter short-end USD funding. |
| IPOR USDCi | 3.63 % | +0 bp | real-time | — | IPOR USDC at 3.63 % matches SOFR, showing parity. |
| IPOR WETHi | 1.67 % | −1 bp | real-time | — | WETH IPOR at 1.67 % indicates cooling ETH leverage demand. |
| ETH Ratei | 2.20 % | — | real-time | — | ETH staking yield at 2.20 % reflects steady validator demand. |
| US Inflation | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TruCPI-US (headline)i | 1.90 % | -0.02 pp | daily | tomorrow | Truflation at 1.90 % runs cooler than official CPI prints. |
| CPI YoY (headline)i | 3.5 % | −0.7 pp | 14 Jul 2026 | 12 Aug 2026 | Headline CPI at 3.5 % keeps Fed cautious on cuts. |
| CPI YoY (core)i | 2.6 % | −0.3 pp | 14 Jul 2026 | 12 Aug 2026 | Core CPI at 2.6 % shows easing underlying inflation. |
| PCE YoY (headline)i | 4.1 % | +0.3 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | PCE at 4.1 % remains above target, delaying Fed easing. |
| PCE YoY (core)i | 3.4 % | +0.1 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Core PCE at 3.4 % stays sticky above the 2 % target. |
| PPI YoY (headline)i | 5.5 % | −0.5 pp | 15 Jul 2026 | 13 Aug 2026 | PPI at 5.5 % signals upstream inflation still elevated. |
| PPI YoY (core)i | 4.7 % | +0.1 pp | 15 Jul 2026 | 13 Aug 2026 | Core PPI at 4.7 % points to persistent upstream pressures. |
| Euro Area Inflationi | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Area | 3.1 % | +0.1 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Euro area HICP at 3.1 % keeps ECB on hold path. |
| Romania | 9.7 % | +0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Romania HICP at 9.7 % reflects ongoing fiscal tightening effects. |
| Bulgaria | 6.3 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Bulgaria HICP at 6.3 % highlights euro convergence challenges. |
| Poland | 3.3 % | −0.0 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Poland HICP at 3.3 % supports steady central bank stance. |
| Germany | 2.7 % | −0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Germany HICP at 2.7 % anchors euro area inflation lower. |
| France | 2.8 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | France HICP at 2.8 % sits close to ECB target. |
| Labor | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) | 158.98 M jobs | +57 k | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | NFP gain of 57 k signals labor market cooling. |
| Unemployment Ratei | 4.2 % | −0.1 pp | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Unemployment at 4.2 % points to rising labor slack. |
| Activity | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Productioni (YoY) | +1.7 % | +0.3 pp | 15 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Industrial production up 1.7 % indicates steady activity. |
| Retail Salesi (m/m) | +1.0 % | +0.7 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 16 Jul 2026 | Retail sales up 1.0 % show resilient consumer demand. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMIi | 53.3 | +0.6 | June 2026 | — | ISM manufacturing at 53.3 confirms factory sector expansion. |
| ISM Services PMIi | 54.0 | +0.4 | June 2026 | — | ISM services at 54.0 signals continued services expansion. |
| Yield Curve | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y2Y Spreadi | 36 bp | — | daily | tomorrow | Positive curve. Recession odds receding. |
| Sentiment | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) | 45 (Fear) | +2 | daily | tomorrow | CNN Fear and Greed at 45 indicates Fear |
| Crypto Fear & Greedi | 25 (Extreme Fear) | +3 | daily | tomorrow | |
| News Sentimenti | +21 (Greed) | +2 | every 30 min | — |
03News Sentiment
Greed04.1Tech Equitiesi
MixedMega-cap tech is broadly higher so far today, with Apple leading at +4.16%, Alphabet +3.66%, Amazon +3.22%, and Microsoft +2.52%. The session's drag comes from the semiconductor side: Intel is down 6.44% and Advanced Micro Devices -5.31%, consistent with the SOXX's steep intraday loss. Nvidia is off 2.07%, making the cohort split 5 up, 4 down - strength concentrated in software and platform names, weakness in silicon.
04.2Recent IPOs
04.3Indices
BullishiBroad US indices are essentially flat heading into the close, with the S&P 500 +0.02%, Nasdaq +0.09%, Dow +0.08%, and Russell 2000 +0.23% - all moves within rounding error of unchanged. The notable outlier is the SOXX semiconductor ETF, down nearly 4%, dragging on the Nasdaq without fully overwhelming it. Breadth is actually constructive on this snapshot: the cap-weighted S&P 500 YTD return of +9.97% trails the equal-weight RSP at +10.39%, a gap of -0.42 percentage points, meaning the average S&P 500 stock is keeping pace with or slightly outrunning the index heavyweights. VIX is easing to 16.18 (-1.94%), suggesting the session's semiconductor stress is not being read as a systemic risk event. Overnight, Nikkei +1.49% and Hang Seng +1.40% provided a constructive global backdrop, while European and emerging-market equities were modestly softer.
04.4US Treasuries & Credit
OfferedTreasuries are selling off across the curve as of this snapshot, with the 2-year yield up 5 basis points to 4.26% and the 10-year up 6 bp to 4.62%, steepening the 2s10s spread to +36 bp. The move is predominantly real: the 10-year TIPS real yield is up 4 bp to 2.36% while the 10-year breakeven is down 1 bp to 2.25%, meaning the selloff reflects tighter real financing conditions rather than a re-pricing of inflation expectations. Credit spreads are modestly wider - HY OAS at 272 bp (+3 bp) and IG OAS at 79 bp (+1 bp) - a small risk-off tick but not a disorderly move given the rate backdrop.
04.5US Inflation · Daily
SteadyTruflation's daily real-time read sits at 1.90% year-over-year as of this snapshot, up 7 basis points over the past month and running 163 bp below the official BLS CPI print of 3.5%. The trend is flagged as steady, with transport the top contributor at +0.63 percentage points to the headline. Today's Producer Price Index for June is on the calendar (12:30 ET), and the PPI print will be the session's key data point to watch heading into the close.
Index Components
12 basket categories · sorted by weight| Category | Inflation (YoY)i | Contributioni | Trend (1-mo)i |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Housing
23.1% of basket
|
+0.13% |
+0.03 pp
|
Heating +0.14 pp |
|
Transport
19.8% of basket
|
+3.21% |
+0.63 pp
|
Cooling −0.97 pp |
|
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
|
+1.93% |
+0.29 pp
|
Heating +2.20 pp |
|
Health
8.8% of basket
|
+0.71% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.26 pp |
|
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
|
+2.46% |
+0.17 pp
|
Cooling −0.99 pp |
|
Utilities
6.0% of basket
|
+2.95% |
+0.18 pp
|
Heating +0.11 pp |
|
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
|
+2.45% |
+0.14 pp
|
Cooling −0.19 pp |
|
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
|
+6.40% |
+0.24 pp
|
Heating +0.75 pp |
|
Other
3.4% of basket
|
+3.01% |
+0.10 pp
|
Cooling −0.27 pp |
|
Communications
3.3% of basket
|
-0.11% |
0.00 pp
|
Cooling −0.05 pp |
|
Education
2.3% of basket
|
+2.56% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.90 pp |
|
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
|
+3.84% |
+0.07 pp
|
Cooling −0.59 pp |
04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve
BidThe JGB 10-year yield has dropped 7 basis points intraday to 2.71%, a notable bull move in the belly of the curve against a backdrop where the BoJ policy rate holds at 1.00%. The 2s10s JGB spread remains steep at +128 bp, with the 2-year at 1.44% and the 30-year at 3.79%, reflecting a curve that is pricing duration risk well above the front end. For yen-carry positions, the 10-year move compresses the funding-cost-to-duration spread slightly, a factor worth monitoring as the session progresses.
04.7Commodities
BearishMetals are under pressure so far today, with Gold (XAU) off 0.64% to $4,043.60 and Silver down a sharper 3.15% to $57.24, widening the gold-silver ratio intraday. Energy is mixed: Brent is up 1.28% while WTI is marginally lower (-0.19%) and Natural Gas is off 1.50%, leaving the energy complex without a clear directional signal heading into the close.
04.8Crypto Assets
BullishBitcoin is holding near flat at $65,104.99 (+0.20%) while Ethereum is the session's outperformer at $1,920.33 (+1.61%), and Solana is slightly red at $77.59 (-0.23%). Total crypto market cap is up 0.52% over 24 hours, and BTC dominance sits at 56.3%. Spot ETF flows are constructive: BTC pulled $181M and ETH $58M in the latest published day. The macro sentiment signal is sharply at odds with the price action - the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reads 25 (Extreme Fear) - while ETH perp funding at +10.03% APR signals active leveraged long positioning in that asset specifically. DeFi TVL is up 4.29% over 24 hours, the strongest signal of on-chain activity in this snapshot.
04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows
AccumulatingCorporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial: 1,285,045 BTC (6.12% of supply, approximately $83.6B), 7,779,569 ETH (6.45% of supply, approximately $14.9B), and 19,340,975 SOL (3.32% of supply, approximately $1.5B). Today's spot ETF flows are positive for BTC ($+181M) and ETH ($+58M), though the 7-day BTC flow is net negative at -$333M, indicating today's inflow is a reversal within a recent outflow trend rather than a sustained acceleration.
| Asset | Total Held | USD Value | % of Supply | Top Public Holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
|
1.29 M BTC | $83.6 B | 6.12% | Strategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k |
|
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
|
7.78 M ETH | $14.9 B | 6.45% | BitMine Immersion 5.77M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k |
|
◎
Solana
SOL
|
19.34 M SOL | $1.5 B | 3.32% | Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M |
04.10Smart Money Positioning
TrimmingThe biggest add over the past 24 hours is Ondo Finance (ONDO), up $222K to $97.6M across 13 wallets. The biggest trim is the Aave v3 WETH receipt token (AETHWETH), down $1.93M over 24 hours and $3.56M over 7 days, reducing the top holding from $189.0M. Net 24-hour positioning change across tracked wallets is -$3.35M, a modest net reduction in aggregate exposure.
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure) |
$189.0M
3 wallets
|
-$1.93M | -$3.56M | building | $4.44B |
| 2 |
LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation |
$151.8M
4 wallets
|
-$406K | -$1.19M | building | $625.7M |
| 3 |
UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX) |
$149.1M
26 wallets
|
-$1.16M | -$1.05M | building | $2.28B |
| 4 |
ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets) |
$97.6M
13 wallets
|
+$222K | +$142K | building | $1.60B |
| 5 |
BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange |
$95.3M
4 wallets
|
-$177K | -$104K | building | $1.18B |
| 6 |
WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era |
$78.1M
21 wallets
|
-$177K | -$504K | building | $1.43B |
| 7 |
WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol |
$42.3M
1 wallet
|
+$24K | +$15K | building | $1.79B |
| 8 |
MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer |
$18.2M
5 wallets
|
+$68K | +$134K | building | $1.34B |
| 9 |
USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund |
$16.9M
6 wallets
|
+$192K | +$1.82M | building | $769.1M |
| 10 |
STETHEthereum Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt |
$15.6M
10 wallets
|
+$4K | +$371K | building | $17.55B |
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin |
$1.3M
11 wallets
|
+$2K | +$2K | building | $384.0M |
| 2 |
USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin |
$555.4K
6 wallets
|
+$460 | -$3K | building | $80.2M |
| 3 |
DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products |
$206.3K
10 wallets
|
+$3K | +$3K | building | $143.9M |
| 4 |
PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps |
$138.2K
2 wallets
|
+$135 | -$119K | building | $8.4M |
| 5 |
PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token |
$125.1K
13 wallets
|
-$207 | -$49K | building | $666.0M |
05Technical Dashboard
Mixed| Asset | Last | Trendi | Supporti | Resistancei | RSIi | RSI Status | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX S&P 500 | 7,544.73 | Bullish | 7,447.40 | 7,581.50 | 56 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| IXIC Nasdaq Comp. | 26,131.29 | Bullish | 26,096.78 | 26,316.81 | 52 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| DXY Dollar Index | 113.69 | USD ↑ | 112.36 | 114.22 | 54 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| VIX Volatility | 16.18 | Suppressed | 15.88 | 17.36 | 47 | Neutral | Hedgeconf 70% |
| US10Y US 10Y Yield | 4.62% | Yields ↑ | 4.48% | 4.62% | 65 | Neutral | Sell bondsconf 75% |
| CL WTI Crude | $69.60 | Bearish | $69.60 | $75.22 | 27 | Oversold | Holdconf 50% |
| XAU Gold | $4,044 | Bearish | $4,023 | $4,286 | 41 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| BTC Bitcoin | $65,105 | Sideways | $64,335 | $73,629 | 57 | Neutral | Holdconf 50% |
| ETH Ethereum | $1,920 | Sideways | $1,750 | $2,211 | 66 | Neutral | Holdconf 50% |
06Key Events
Next 7 daysToday's calendar includes the Producer Price Index for June (12:30 ET) and earnings from Morgan Stanley (MS) and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), all of which are live or imminent heading into the close. Tomorrow brings Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Netflix (NFLX), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) earnings alongside Retail Sales for June (12:30 ET). Friday closes the week with Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Housing Starts, and Building Permits - five high-impact macro prints in total across the next three days.
U.S. Macro Releases
-
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales MoM (Jun)Est: 0.20 % · prev 0.90 % High -
Fri
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Housing Starts (Jun)Est: 1.31 M · prev 1.18 M High -
Fri
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)Est: 51 · prev 49.50 High -
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/11)Est: 217 K · prev 215 K Medium -
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.80 % Medium -
Fri
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Housing Starts MoM (Jun)Est: 0 % · prev -15.40 % Medium -
Fri
13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST Industrial Production MoM (Jun)Est: 0.20 % · prev 0.10 % Medium -
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales YoY (Jun)Est: 6.70 % · prev 6.90 % Low -
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.50 % Low -
Fri
13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST Industrial Production YoY (Jun)Est: 1.50 % · prev 1.70 % Low
Earnings
- Today · After close MS — Morgan StanleyEPS est $2.89 (+36% YoY) · Rev est $19.7B (+26% YoY) High
- Today · After close JNJ — Johnson & JohnsonEPS est $2.84 (+3% YoY) · Rev est $25.0B (+5% YoY) High
- Tomorrow · After close TSM — Taiwan Semi (TSMC)EPS est $3.87 (+55% YoY) · Rev est $39.8B (+25% YoY) High
- Tomorrow · After close NFLX — NetflixEPS est $0.79 (+10% YoY) · Rev est $12.6B (+14% YoY) High
- Tomorrow · After close UNH — UnitedHealthEPS est $4.87 (+19% YoY) · Rev est $110.8B (−1% YoY) High
- Tue · After close GOOGL — AlphabetEPS est $2.87 (+24% YoY) · Rev est $116.5B (+21% YoY) High
- Wed, Jul 22 · After close TSLA — TeslaEPS est $0.47 (+17% YoY) · Rev est $25.7B (+14% YoY) High
08Daily Alpha
Add selectively: softer PPI opens pockets, but late-cycle breadth warns against chasing
So far today, the dominant story is June PPI coming in at -0.3% against a 0.0% estimate and a prior of +0.6% - a meaningful undershoot that, paired with yesterday's softer CPI, is reducing Fed rate-hike fears and weakening the dollar. Per Cointelegraph, Bitcoin reached a three-week high near $65,105 on the data before settling near $65,105. The macro relief is real, but the entry picture is uneven. The sector spread is a late-cycle tell: Communication Services is up 3.3% while Technology is down 3.1%, a 6.4-point gap driven by Apple's +4.2% surge against Advanced Micro Devices at -5.3% and Intel at -6.4%. That is rotation, not broad risk appetite. Crypto Fear and Greed sits at 25 (Extreme Fear) with the Ostium oracle exploit dragging DeFi sentiment; Bitcoin ETF flows are positive today at $181M but the seven-day window is still -$333M. The 10-year real yield at 2.36% keeps equities expensive on a late-cycle framework. Add selectively into beaten-down crypto and Communication Services; avoid broad tech and DeFi until the exploit fallout clears.