Daily Market Report
Volatility Spikes As Fear Grips Equities and Crypto
01Daily Summary
Geopolitical stress and rising Fed rate-hike expectations hit markets hard today. The S&P 500 fell to 7,515, the VIX surged 14.2% to 17.16, and Bitcoin dropped to $62,632 - sitting just below its 200-week moving average of $63,085. Bitcoin spot ETFs bled $424.7 million in a single session. Gold held firm at $4,023.80, a classic safe-haven divergence. News sentiment registered a heavily bearish 77% bear share, while the crypto Fear and Greed Index collapsed to 22 (Extreme Fear), confirming broad defensive positioning across asset classes.
S&P 500−0.79%NASDAQ−1.55%US10Y+2 bpWTI−0.19%Gold+0.45%BTC−1.75%ETH−1.28%DXY−0.13%VIX+14.17%
- Driver:Geopolitical tensions and rising expectations of a July Fed rate hike triggered broad risk aversion across equities and crypto.
- Cross-asset:Equities and crypto fell together; gold gained 0.45%; the dollar edged softer; oil was flat; bonds offered limited refuge.
- Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 5.06%; 2s10s spread at 35 basis points; 10-year real yield 2.32%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) at 269 bp, tightening 1 bp; IPOR USDC at 3.61%.
- Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 22 (Extreme Fear); equity Fear and Greed at 43.7 (Fear); VIX up 14.2%; Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.67; funding rates near zero.
- Forward bias:China GDP and retail sales plus US PPI and the BoC rate decision on July 15 are the next catalysts; a softer US PPI print would ease the rate-hike narrative and could flip the regime call.
02Macro Snapshot
Stagflation risk rising| Benchmark Rates | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Ratei | 3.50 – 3.75 % | unchanged | 17 Jun 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | Fed funds at 3.50 to 3.75 percent limits risk asset gains. |
| ECB Ratei | 2.25 % | +25 bp | 11 Jun 2026 | 23 Jul 2026 | ECB rate hike to 2.25 percent pressures European risk assets. |
| BoJ Ratei | 1.00 % | +25 bp | 16 Jun 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 | BoJ rate at 1.00 percent sustains attractive JPY carry trade. |
| SOFRi | 3.55 % | +2 bp | daily | tomorrow | SOFR at 3.55 percent with a two bp rise tightens funding. |
| IPOR USDCi | 3.61 % | +6 bp | real-time | — | USDC IPOR at 3.61 percent above SOFR signals strong leverage demand. |
| IPOR WETHi | 1.68 % | +1 bp | real-time | — | WETH IPOR at 1.68 percent shows cooling ETH leverage demand. |
| ETH Ratei | 2.20 % | — | real-time | — | ETH staking yield at 2.20 percent reflects steady validator demand. |
| US Inflation | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TruCPI-US (headline)i | 1.93 % | 0.00 pp | daily | tomorrow | Truflation at 1.93 percent runs cooler than official CPI prints. |
| CPI YoY (headline)i | 4.2 % | +0.4 pp | 14 Jul 2026 | 12 Aug 2026 | Headline CPI at 4.2 percent keeps Fed cautious on cuts. |
| CPI YoY (core)i | 2.9 % | +0.1 pp | 14 Jul 2026 | 12 Aug 2026 | Core CPI at 2.9 percent shows persistent inflation stickiness. |
| PCE YoY (headline)i | 4.1 % | +0.3 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Headline PCE at 4.1 percent keeps Fed on hold. |
| PCE YoY (core)i | 3.4 % | +0.1 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Core PCE at 3.4 percent remains above the two percent target. |
| PPI YoY (headline)i | 6.4 % | +0.8 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | PPI at 6.4 percent signals upstream inflation feeding into CPI. |
| PPI YoY (core)i | 4.9 % | +0.0 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | Core PPI at 4.9 percent indicates sticky upstream price pressures. |
| Euro Area Inflationi | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Area | 3.1 % | +0.1 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Euro area HICP at 3.1 percent delays ECB rate cuts. |
| Romania | 9.7 % | +0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Romania HICP at 9.7 percent reflects fiscal tightening effects. |
| Bulgaria | 6.3 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Bulgaria HICP at 6.3 percent aligns with euro convergence path. |
| Poland | 3.3 % | −0.0 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Poland HICP at 3.3 percent supports steady central bank policy. |
| Germany | 2.7 % | −0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Germany HICP at 2.7 percent anchors euro area inflation lower. |
| France | 2.8 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | France HICP at 2.8 percent stays near ECB target. |
| Labor | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) | 158.98 M jobs | +57 k | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Nonfarm payrolls rise of 57k signals labor market cooling. |
| Unemployment Ratei | 4.2 % | −0.1 pp | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Unemployment at 4.2 percent points to rising labor slack. |
| Activity | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Productioni (YoY) | +1.7 % | +0.3 pp | 15 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Industrial production up 1.7 percent shows modest manufacturing growth. |
| Retail Salesi (m/m) | +1.0 % | +0.7 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 16 Jul 2026 | Retail sales gain of 1.0 percent supports consumer demand. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMIi | 53.3 | +0.6 | June 2026 | — | ISM manufacturing at 53.3 confirms factory sector expansion. |
| ISM Services PMIi | 54.0 | +0.4 | June 2026 | — | ISM services at 54.0 indicates services sector expansion. |
| Yield Curve | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y2Y Spreadi | 35 bp | — | daily | tomorrow | Positive curve. Recession odds receding. |
| Sentiment | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) | 44 (Fear) | unchanged | daily | tomorrow | CNN Fear and Greed at 44 |
| Crypto Fear & Greedi | 22 (Extreme Fear) | −6 | daily | tomorrow | |
| News Sentimenti | −18 (Fear) | −16 | every 30 min | — |
03News Sentiment
Fear
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed)
range
−44 to +35
·
current
−18
(Fear)
·
−16
24h
7 days ago
today
What's driving today's news sentiment
+32
Bullish
medium-term
Solo Bitcoin Miner Profitability Rises with 41% More Blocks Found Over Past Year
Solo Bitcoin miners see profitability increase with 24 blocks mined in last 12 months, a 41% rise year-over-year, signaling strengthened mining activity.
−32
Bearish
Survey Shows Majority of Americans Brace for Prolonged US-Iran War Impact
beincrypto.com
−32
Bearish
China expels former Politburo member amid corruption and sex allegations
bloomberg.com
+27
Bullish
South Korea to Relax FX Rules to Boost Won's Global Usage
bloomberg.com
+18
Neutral
White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt departs for military training amid CLARITY Act transition
cointelegraph.com
−14
Neutral
Palm Oil Rises amid Crude Price Rally Fueled by US-Iran Tensions
bloomberg.com
−12
Neutral
Japan’s Power Prices Reach Six-Week High Amid Heat and Fuel Supply Issues
bloomberg.com
+5
Neutral
South Korean Won Strengthens on Equity-Linked Inflows
bloomberg.com
04.1Tech Equitiesi
BearishThe Mag7 is splitting sharply today, with only 3 of 9 names in the green. Intel leads losses at -6.12%, followed by Advanced Micro Devices at -4.21% and Nvidia at -3.52%, dragging semiconductor sentiment lower. Microsoft (MSFT, +1.53%) and Amazon (AMZN, +0.80%) are the relative bright spots, but the cohort's breadth is decisively negative.
AAPLApple
$317.31+0.63%
1D Range $315.78 — $323.45
1M Range $275.15 — $317.31
P/E TTMi38.1
P/E Fwdi32.9
50-DMAi+6.6%
200-DMAi+16.5%
RSI(14)i64
YTDi+17.1%
% from ATHi−1.9%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.89
MSFTMicrosoft
$390.99+1.53%
1D Range $384.15 — $393.64
1M Range $352.83 — $399.76
P/E TTMi23.2
P/E Fwdi20.1
50-DMAi−3.1%
200-DMAi−11.6%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi−17.3%
% from ATHi−29.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.53
GOOGLAlphabet
$352.51−1.31%
1D Range $351.93 — $358.12
1M Range $337.39 — $373.25
P/E TTMi26.6
P/E Fwdi23.9
50-DMAi−5.4%
200-DMAi+10.5%
RSI(14)i44
YTDi+11.9%
% from ATHi−13.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.32
AMZNAmazon
$247.31+0.80%
1D Range $244.23 — $249.65
1M Range $227.01 — $247.31
P/E TTMi29.3
P/E Fwdi24.5
50-DMAi−2.6%
200-DMAi+6.0%
RSI(14)i53
YTDi+9.2%
% from ATHi−11.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.55
NVDANVIDIA
$203.53−3.52%
1D Range $203.35 — $210.57
1M Range $192.53 — $212.45
P/E TTMi31.0
P/E Fwdi22.7
50-DMAi−2.7%
200-DMAi+6.2%
RSI(14)i50
YTDi+7.8%
% from ATHi−14.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.11
METAMeta Platforms
$656.73−1.86%
1D Range $654.20 — $676.62
1M Range $542.87 — $669.21
P/E TTMi23.6
P/E Fwdi18.7
50-DMAi+9.4%
200-DMAi+2.2%
RSI(14)i63
YTDi+1.0%
% from ATHi−17.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.05
TSLATesla
$394.76−3.19%
1D Range $391.37 — $405.40
1M Range $375.12 — $425.30
P/E TTMi329.4
P/E Fwdi160.7
50-DMAi−3.5%
200-DMAi−5.6%
RSI(14)i47
YTDi−9.9%
% from ATHi−20.9%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.72
INTCIntel
$103.12−6.12%
1D Range $101.79 — $106.17
1M Range $103.12 — $140.94
P/E TTMin/a
P/E Fwdi65.1
50-DMAi−11.9%
200-DMAi+65.1%
RSI(14)i39
YTDi+161.9%
% from ATHi−27.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.35
AMDAMD
$534.39−4.21%
1D Range $526.97 — $551.86
1M Range $488.45 — $580.91
P/E TTMi174.0
P/E Fwdi40.0
50-DMAi+10.9%
200-DMAi+85.8%
RSI(14)i53
YTDi+139.1%
% from ATHi−8.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.36
04.2Recent IPOs
SPCXSpaceX
IPO'd 12 Jun 2026 $139.14−4.24%
1D Range $136.78 — $144.92
1M Range $139.14 — $201.80
Mkt Capi$1.82T
IPO-day Vali$2.10T
IPO-to-Datei−13.6%
Floati6.1B · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a
P/E FwdiFY27E · 224x
RSI(14)i42% from ATHi−38.3%
04.3Indices
BearishiUS equities are broadly lower, with the Nasdaq off 1.55% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) down 4.77%, the session's sharpest drawdown. The S&P 500 is -0.79% and the Russell 2000 -0.83%, while the Dow holds up best at -0.26%. Notably, the equal-weight RSP is outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 on a YTD basis by 1.50 percentage points (+11.08% vs +9.58%), meaning the average S&P 500 stock is ahead of the index - breadth is actually broadening rather than narrowing, a reversal of the typical Mag7-concentration pattern. VIX is surging 14.17% to 17.16, signaling a meaningful intraday risk-off shift. World markets are largely flat, though Emerging Markets (EEM) are down 3.59%, amplifying the risk-off tone.
US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,515.34−0.79%
1D Range 7,506.41 — 7,565.37
1M Range 7,354.03 — 7,575.39
50-DMAi+1.1%
200-DMAi+7.9%
RSI(14)i54
YTDi+9.6%
% from ATHi−1.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.74
IXICNasdaq Comp.
25,873.18−1.55%
1D Range 25,822.10 — 26,139.37
1M Range 25,297.62 — 26,683.94
50-DMAi−0.7%
200-DMAi+8.7%
RSI(14)i49
YTDi+11.4%
% from ATHi−4.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.56
DJIDow Jones Ind.
52,498.64−0.26%
1D Range 52,351.12 — 52,846.51
1M Range 50,848.76 — 53,055.91
50-DMAi+3.1%
200-DMAi+8.0%
RSI(14)i60
YTDi+8.5%
% from ATHi−1.1%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.60
RUTRussell 2000
2,953.17−0.83%
1D Range 2,947.24 — 2,974.49
1M Range 2,917.98 — 3,024.37
50-DMAi+1.7%
200-DMAi+11.9%
RSI(14)i50
YTDi+17.7%
% from ATHi−2.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.63
SOXXSemiconductors
553.61−4.77%
1D Range 550.26 — 566.65
1M Range 551.69 — 655.01
50-DMAi−0.8%
200-DMAi+44.1%
RSI(14)i46
YTDi+76.5%
% from ATHi−15.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.27
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
214.23−0.03%
1D Range 213.80 — 215.50
1M Range 208.89 — 215.00
50-DMAi+3.0%
200-DMAi+8.3%
RSI(14)i60
YTDi+11.1%
vs SPX YTDi+1.5pp
Cap-weight sharei-16%
VIXiVolatility Idx
17.16+14.17%
1D Range 16.03 — 17.41
1M Range 15.03 — 19.49
50-DMAi−1.2%
200-DMAi−8.1%
RSI(14)i50
YTDi+18.3%
MOVEiMOVE Index
69.55+0.96%
5D Range 65.76 — 72.41
1M Range 65.39 — 73.95
50-DMAi−3.7%
200-DMAi−3.7%
RSI(14)i49
YTDi+11.5%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
113.69−0.13%
5D Range 113.69 — 114.22
1M Range 112.34 — 114.67
50-DMAi+1.2%
200-DMAi+1.7%
RSI(14)i54
YTDi+2.3%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,498.29+0.01%
1D Range 10,465.00 — 10,532.10
1M Range 10,363.27 — 10,679.03
50-DMAi+0.8%
200-DMAi+3.7%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi+5.5%
% from ATHi−4.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.49
N225Nikkei 225
67,257.94+0.02%
1D Range 66,268.60 — 67,521.10
1M Range 66,819.05 — 72,366.34
50-DMAi+1.8%
200-DMAi+21.0%
RSI(14)i47
YTDi+29.7%
% from ATHi−7.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.17
HSIHang Seng
24,174.50−0.16%
1D Range 23,858.00 — 24,248.50
1M Range 22,671.87 — 24,842.68
50-DMAi−2.9%
200-DMAi−6.5%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi−8.2%
% from ATHi−13.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.09
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
203.01−0.79%
1D Range 202.68 — 204.08
1M Range 197.36 — 204.63
50-DMAi+0.8%
200-DMAi+7.0%
RSI(14)i53
YTDi+8.8%
% from ATHi−1.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.54
EEMMSCI Emerging
64.50−3.59%
1D Range 64.39 — 65.29
1M Range 64.50 — 71.21
50-DMAi−3.8%
200-DMAi+8.4%
RSI(14)i42
YTDi+14.7%
% from ATHi−9.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.36
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
41.9Overvalued
−0.78% today
Long-run mean17.4
Median16.1
All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999)
% from ATHi−5.3%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
32.3Overvalued
−0.78% today
Long-run mean16.2
Median15.1
All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP
218.1Overvalued
Long-run mean86.1
Median72.1
All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025)
% from ATHi−4.6%
Sector Rotationi
Utilities+1.61%
Staples+0.71%
Energy+0.39%
Financials+0.03%
Healthcare−0.07%
Discretionary−0.46%
Telecom−0.89%
Real Estate−1.06%
Materials−1.13%
Tech−1.22%
Industrials−1.79%
04.4US Treasuries & Credit
OfferedThe front end is leading the yield move higher, with the 2-year Treasury up 5 basis points to 4.21% while the 10-year adds 2 bp to 4.56% and the 30-year edges up 1 bp to 5.06%, flattening the curve at the margin with the 2s10s spread at +35 bp. Real rates are barely changed, with the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.32% (+1 bp) and the 10-year breakeven at 2.26% (+2 bp), leaving inflation expectations essentially anchored. Credit spreads are mixed but tight: HY OAS narrows 1 bp to 269 bp while IG OAS widens 1 bp to 77 bp, suggesting credit markets are not yet pricing meaningful stress despite the equity selloff.
US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.21%+5 bp
5D Range 4.13 — 4.21
1M Range 4.05 — 4.24
5-day Δ+7 bp
YTD Δ+74 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.56%+2 bp
5D Range 4.48 — 4.56
1M Range 4.38 — 4.56
10–2 spread+35 bp
YTD Δ+37 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
5.06%+1 bp
5D Range 4.99 — 5.06
1M Range 4.86 — 5.06
5-day Δ+8 bp
YTD Δ+20 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.41T
-$1.2B (1d)
+7.7% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.34T
+11.1% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.41%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.41%
+0.10pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.7%
~$10.15T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.32%
+1 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.26%
+2 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.69%
−1 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.77%
+1 bp
tight · late-cycle
04.5US Inflation · Daily
SteadyTruflation's daily read holds at 1.93% year-over-year, up just 0.06 percentage points over the past month and tracking 2.32 percentage points below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2%. Transport is the top contributor, adding 0.66 percentage points to the headline. The trend is steady, with no acceleration signal from the real-time data.
1.93%
Daily Data By
Daily
0.00 pp
1-mo
+0.06 pp
1-yr
+0.19 pp
About the number
Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.
Truflation data as of 2026-07-13
vs BLS CPI official 4.2% (May 2026, monthly · lagged)
−2.32 ppbelow official print
next BLS CPI: 12 Aug 2026
Index Components
12 basket categories · sorted by weight| Category | Inflation (YoY)i | Contributioni | Trend (1-mo)i |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Housing
23.1% of basket
|
+0.13% |
+0.03 pp
|
Heating +0.20 pp |
|
Transport
19.8% of basket
|
+3.32% |
+0.66 pp
|
Cooling −0.99 pp |
|
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
|
+1.98% |
+0.30 pp
|
Heating +2.11 pp |
|
Health
8.8% of basket
|
+0.71% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.26 pp |
|
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
|
+2.46% |
+0.17 pp
|
Cooling −1.03 pp |
|
Utilities
6.0% of basket
|
+2.95% |
+0.18 pp
|
Heating +0.11 pp |
|
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
|
+2.45% |
+0.14 pp
|
Cooling −0.13 pp |
|
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
|
+6.40% |
+0.24 pp
|
Heating +0.75 pp |
|
Other
3.4% of basket
|
+3.01% |
+0.10 pp
|
Cooling −0.30 pp |
|
Communications
3.3% of basket
|
-0.11% |
0.00 pp
|
Cooling −0.05 pp |
|
Education
2.3% of basket
|
+2.56% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.90 pp |
|
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
|
+3.84% |
+0.07 pp
|
Cooling −0.91 pp |
04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve
OfferedThe JGB curve is steepening at the long end, with the 10-year yield at 2.79% (+2 bp on the day) and the 30-year at 3.92%, while the 2-year sits at 1.45% against a Bank of Japan policy rate of 1.00%. The 2s10s spread of +134 bp reflects a pronounced term premium, keeping the long end well above the BoJ's short-rate anchor. For yen-carry positions, the elevated and widening JGB curve steepness raises the duration cost of funding legs parked in longer-dated JGBs.
JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.45%+2 bp
5D Range 1.40 — 1.45
1M Range 1.38 — 1.45
5-day Δ+6 bp
YTD Δ+26 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.79%+2 bp
5D Range 2.76 — 2.87
1M Range 2.59 — 2.87
10–2 spread+134 bp
YTD Δ+68 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
3.92%−2 bp
5D Range 3.92 — 4.01
1M Range 3.71 — 4.01
5-day Δ−5 bp
YTD Δ+53 bp
04.7Commodities
MixedGold (XAU) is the standout, up 0.45% to $4,023.80, holding above the $4,000 level as risk-off sentiment provides a bid. Silver is fractionally higher at $58.005 (+0.06%). Energy prices are mixed with Brent crude up 1.28% while WTI slips 0.19% and natural gas pulls back 1.50%, leaving the energy complex without a unified directional signal.
CLWTI Crude
$69.60−0.19%
5D Range $69.60 — $71.87
1M Range $69.60 — $96.83
50-DMAi−25.2%
200-DMAi−7.5%
RSI(14)i27
YTDi+21.7%
COBrent
$69.56+1.28%
5D Range $68.53 — $70.46
1M Range $68.53 — $97.46
50-DMAi−27.3%
200-DMAi−14.4%
RSI(14)i28
YTDi+12.2%
NGNatural Gas
$3.29−1.50%
5D Range $3.29 — $3.34
1M Range $3.05 — $3.34
50-DMAi+9.2%
200-DMAi−11.6%
RSI(14)i57
YTDi+16.7%
XAUGold
$4,023.80+0.45%
5D Range $3,990.40 — $4,029.70
1M Range $4,005.70 — $4,209.00
50-DMAi−6.6%
200-DMAi−12.5%
RSI(14)i38
YTDi−8.3%
XAGSilver
$58.01+0.06%
5D Range $57.16 — $58.09
1M Range $57.97 — $65.62
50-DMAi−17.6%
200-DMAi−16.7%
RSI(14)i36
YTDi−20.3%
04.8Crypto Assets
BearishBitcoin is down 1.75% to $62,632.37 and Ethereum off 1.28% to $1,782.34, with Solana leading losses at -2.40% to $75.02. The crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 22 (Extreme Fear), and spot ETF flows are deeply negative: BTC ETFs saw $425M in outflows on the latest day, with ETH adding another $15M in redemptions. BTC dominance holds at 56.1%, suggesting altcoins are not finding relative bids. Perpetual funding rates remain modestly positive for both BTC (+3.71% APR) and ETH (+2.65% APR), indicating longs are still paying but without the elevated premiums that would signal crowded positioning.
BTCBitcoin
$62,632.37−1.75%
1D Range $61,786.31 — $64,252.10
1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,276.80
50-DMAi−3.5%
200-DMAi−15.2%
200-WMAi($63,084.71) −0.7%
RSI(14)i48
% from ATHi−50.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.69
ETHEthereum
$1,782.34−1.28%
1D Range $1,750.59 — $1,838.48
1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,805.51
50-DMAi+1.2%
200-DMAi−19.8%
200-WMAi($2,474.89) −28.0%
RSI(14)i55
% from ATHi−63.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.53
SOLSolana
$75.02−2.40%
1D Range $74.05 — $77.93
1M Range $67.61 — $82.28
50-DMAi+0.9%
200-DMAi−18.2%
200-WMAi($107.55) −30.2%
RSI(14)i47
% from ATHi−74.4%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.75
ENAEthena
$0.0806+2.92%
1D Range $0.0773 — $0.0806
1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0955
50-DMAi+0.8%
200-DMAi−32.8%
RSI(14)i49
% from ATHi−94.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.94
HYPEHyperliquid
$63.35−5.86%
1D Range $62.53 — $68.04
1M Range $61.39 — $73.57
50-DMAi−2.9%
200-DMAi+49.6%
RSI(14)i45
% from ATHi−15.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.89
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001446−2.04%
1D Range $0.001448 — $0.001523
1M Range $0.001197 — $0.001632
50-DMAi−3.6%
200-DMAi−23.9%
RSI(14)i47
% from ATHi−83.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.39
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.25T
−1.75%
56.1% of total
ETH Mcap
$215.1B
−1.28%
9.6% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$308.7B
−0.71%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.24T
−0.18%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$64.4B
+1.14%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$7.6B
+33.25%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$217.4B
−2.74%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$4.0B
−3.43%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$73.3B
−0.63%
all chains
Lending TVL
$38.4B
−1.06%
money markets
DEX TVL
$11.5B
−0.83%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.20%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+3.71% APR
longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+2.65% APR
longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.67
large traders long
1.67× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
22
Extreme Fear
Δ −6 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.61%
+0.06 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.80%
USDTi
2.98%
−0.57 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.00%
DAIi
3.53%
−0.02 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.54%
WETHi
1.68%
+0.01 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.67%
04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows
DistributingCorporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,279,883 BTC (~$80.2B, 6.09% of supply), 7,751,768 ETH (~$13.8B, 6.42% of supply), and 19,021,279 SOL (~$1.4B, 3.27% of supply) held across tracked entities. Spot ETF flows on the latest day are negative for BTC (-$425M) and ETH (-$15M), with SOL flat. Over the trailing 7 days, BTC ETFs have seen net outflows of $493M while ETH has attracted $48M in net inflows, a divergence worth watching.
| Asset | Total Held | USD Value | % of Supply | Top Public Holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
|
1.28 M BTC | $80.2 B | 6.09% | Strategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k |
|
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
|
7.75 M ETH | $13.8 B | 6.42% | BitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k |
|
◎
Solana
SOL
|
19.02 M SOL | $1.4 B | 3.27% | Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M |
Public-company treasuries
₿BitcoinBTC
$80.2 B
1.28 M BTC
% of supply6.09%
Top public holdersStrategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
ΞEthereumETH
$13.8 B
7.75 M ETH
% of supply6.42%
Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎SolanaSOL
$1.4 B
19.02 M SOL
% of supply3.27%
Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC
13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…
Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM)
1.
IBIT
BlackRock
$45.5 B
2.
FBTC
Fidelity
$10.2 B
3.
GBTC
Grayscale
$8.7 B
4.
BTC
Grayscale Mini
$3.6 B
5.
ARKB
ARK 21Shares
$2.4 B
+ 8 more
Flow data as of 13 Jul 2026
AUM
$75.5 B
24h Flow−$425 M
7-day Flow−$493 M
YTD Flowi−$5.69 B
ETH
10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…
Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM)
1.
ETHA
BlackRock
$4.9 B
2.
ETH
Grayscale Mini
$1.5 B
3.
ETHE
Grayscale
$1.4 B
4.
FETH
Fidelity
$750.9 M
5.
ETHB
BlackRock
$504.6 M
+ 5 more
Flow data as of 13 Jul 2026
AUM
$9.4 B
24h Flow−$15 M
7-day Flow+$48 M
YTD Flowi−$1.36 B
SOL
6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…
Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM)
1.
BSOL
Bitwise
$610.6 M
2.
GSOL
Grayscale
$101.5 M
3.
VSOL
VanEck
$14.5 M
4.
SOEZ
Franklin
$8.5 M
5.
TSOL
VanEck
$3.2 M
+ 1 more
Flow data as of 10 Jul 2026
AUM
$738.3 M
24h Flow+$0 M
7-day Flow+$2 M
YTD Flowi−$27 M
04.10Smart Money Positioning
AddingThe biggest add over the past 24 hours is Litentry/Heima (LIT) at +$1.27M, bringing tracked holdings to $145.1M across 4 wallets. The biggest trim is Superstate USTB, a tokenized short-term US Treasury fund, down $247K to $16.9M. Overall smart-money positioning is net positive on the day at +$2.38M.
Total tracked$823.2M
Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist
Net change 24h+$2.38M
Data by
Paid per call
x402by
Largest holdings
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure) |
$176.9M
3 wallets
|
+$183K | -$1.88M | building | $4.13B |
| 2 |
UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX) |
$146.8M
26 wallets
|
+$549K | -$22K | building | $2.24B |
| 3 |
LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation |
$145.1M
4 wallets
|
+$1.27M | +$416K | building | $595.6M |
| 4 |
BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange |
$92.1M
4 wallets
|
+$106K | -$188K | building | $1.14B |
| 5 |
ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets) |
$91.3M
13 wallets
|
+$191K | -$96K | building | $1.50B |
| 6 |
WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era |
$76.8M
21 wallets
|
+$273K | -$401K | building | $1.40B |
| 7 |
WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol |
$43.2M
1 wallet
|
+$1K | -$42K | building | $1.83B |
| 8 |
MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer |
$17.3M
5 wallets
|
+$37K | -$127K | building | $1.28B |
| 9 |
USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund |
$16.9M
6 wallets
|
-$247K | +$1.62M | building | $781.6M |
| 10 |
STETHEthereum Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt |
$14.5M
10 wallets
|
+$17K | +$291K | building | $16.39B |
1AETHWETHEthereum
$176.9M
3 wallets
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
24h+$183K
7d-$1.88M
2UNIEthereum
$146.8M
26 wallets
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
24h+$549K
7d-$22K
3LITEthereum
$145.1M
4 wallets
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
24h+$1.27M
7d+$416K
4BGBEthereum
$92.1M
4 wallets
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
24h+$106K
7d-$188K
5ONDOEthereum
$91.3M
13 wallets
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
24h+$191K
7d-$96K
6WLDEthereum
$76.8M
21 wallets
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
24h+$273K
7d-$401K
7WLFIEthereum
$43.2M
1 wallet
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
24h+$1K
7d-$42K
8MORPHOEthereum
$17.3M
5 wallets
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
24h+$37K
7d-$127K
9USTBEthereum
$16.9M
6 wallets
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
24h-$247K
7d+$1.62M
10STETHEthereum
$14.5M
10 wallets
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
24h+$17K
7d+$291K
Small-cap watch
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin |
$1.2M
11 wallets
|
-$1K | -$4K | building | $364.0M |
| 2 |
USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin |
$573.0K
7 wallets
|
-$4K | +$7K | building | $82.8M |
| 3 |
DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products |
$163.6K
10 wallets
|
+$902 | -$261 | building | $115.6M |
| 4 |
PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps |
$136.5K
2 wallets
|
-$4K | -$119K | building | $8.3M |
| 5 |
PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token |
$110.1K
13 wallets
|
-$276 | -$42K | building | $584.5M |
1PENGUSolana
$1.2M
11 wallets
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
24h-$1K
7d-$4K
2USELESSSolana
$573.0K
7 wallets
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
24h-$4K
7d+$7K
3DRVEthereum
$163.6K
10 wallets
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
24h+$902
7d-$261
4PEARArbitrum
$136.5K
2 wallets
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
24h-$4K
7d-$119K
5PUMPSolana
$110.1K
13 wallets
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
24h-$276
7d-$42K
05Technical Dashboard
Mixed| Asset | Last | Trendi | Supporti | Resistancei | RSIi | RSI Status | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX S&P 500 | 7,515.34 | Bullish | 7,433.12 | 7,565.37 | 54 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| IXIC Nasdaq Comp. | 25,873.18 | Sideways | 23,791.66 | 26,048.49 | 49 | Neutral | Holdconf 50% |
| DXY Dollar Index | 113.69 | USD ↑ | 112.36 | 114.22 | 54 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| VIX Volatility | 17.16 | Suppressed | 16.03 | 17.36 | 50 | Neutral | Hedgeconf 70% |
| US10Y US 10Y Yield | 4.56% | Yields ↑ | 4.48% | 4.56% | 59 | Neutral | Sell bondsconf 75% |
| CL WTI Crude | $69.60 | Bearish | $69.60 | $75.22 | 27 | Oversold | Holdconf 50% |
| XAU Gold | $4,024 | Bearish | $3,990 | $4,307 | 38 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| BTC Bitcoin | $62,632 | Bearish | $61,786 | $64,876 | 48 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| ETH Ethereum | $1,782 | Sideways | $1,761 | $2,222 | 55 | Neutral | Holdconf 50% |
06Key Events
Next 7 daysTwelve high-impact US macro releases are on deck this week, headlined by Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM for June on July 15, Retail Sales MoM for June on July 16, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment plus Housing Starts and Building Permits on July 17. Nine mega-cap earnings are in the queue, with JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs all reporting today (July 14), followed by Johnson and Johnson and Morgan Stanley on July 15, and UnitedHealth Group, Netflix, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing on July 16.
U.S. Macro Releases
-
Today
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.50 % High -
Today
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI YoY (Jun)Est: 3.80 % · prev 4.20 % High -
Today
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI MoM (Jun)Est: 0.20 % · prev 0.20 % High -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales MoM (Jun)Est: 0.20 % · prev 0.90 % High -
Fri
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Housing Starts (Jun)Est: 1.30 M · prev 1.18 M High -
Fri
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)Est: 51.50 · prev 49.50 High -
Today
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI s.a (Jun)Est: 334 · prev 334.0 Medium -
Today
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI YoY (Jun)Est: 2.80 % · prev 2.90 % Medium -
Today
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI (Jun)Est: 334.7 % · prev 335.1 % Medium -
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PPI MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.40 % Medium -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.80 % Medium -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/11)Est: 218 K · prev 215 K Medium -
Fri
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Housing Starts MoM (Jun)Est: 0 % · prev -15.40 % Medium -
Fri
13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST Industrial Production MoM (Jun)Est: 0.20 % · prev 0.10 % Medium -
Today
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI (Jun)prev 336.1 % Low -
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY (Jun)Est: 5 % · prev 5.10 % Low -
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PPI YoY (Jun)Est: 5.20 % · prev 4.90 % Low -
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.80 % Low -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales YoY (Jun)Est: 6.70 % · prev 6.90 % Low -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.50 % Low -
Fri
13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST Industrial Production YoY (Jun)Est: 1.50 % · prev 1.70 % Low
1 / 4
Earnings
- Today · After close JPM — JPMorgan ChaseEPS est $5.59 (+13% YoY) · Rev est $51.1B (+14% YoY) High
- Today · After close BAC — Bank of AmericaEPS est $1.13 (+27% YoY) · Rev est $30.8B (+16% YoY) High
- Today · After close GS — Goldman SachsEPS est $14.47 (+33% YoY) · Rev est $16.2B (+11% YoY) High
- Today · After close WFC — Wells FargoEPS est $1.73 (+12% YoY) · Rev est $21.9B (+5% YoY) High
- Tomorrow · After close MS — Morgan StanleyEPS est $2.89 (+36% YoY) · Rev est $19.7B (+26% YoY) High
- Tomorrow · After close JNJ — Johnson & JohnsonEPS est $2.85 (+3% YoY) · Rev est $25.0B (+5% YoY) High
- Thu · After close TSM — Taiwan Semi (TSMC)EPS est $3.80 (+52% YoY) · Rev est $39.9B (+26% YoY) High
- Thu · After close NFLX — NetflixEPS est $0.79 (+10% YoY) · Rev est $12.6B (+14% YoY) High
- Thu · After close UNH — UnitedHealthEPS est $4.84 (+19% YoY) · Rev est $110.8B (−1% YoY) High
1 / 2
08Daily Alpha
Add selectively. Crypto Extreme Fear and gold strength offer pockets amid equity risk-off
Today's tape is a risk-off rotation, not a broad collapse. The VIX spiked 14.2% to 17.16, Advanced Micro Devices fell 4.2% and Intel dropped 6.1% as semiconductor names led Technology down 1.2%, while Utilities gained 1.6% - a 3.4pp best-to-worst spread that is a textbook late-cycle defensive rotation. US-Iran tensions are dominating the news cycle (per nasdaq.com: 'US-Iran tensions drive crude oil surge and market risk-off'), amplifying the flight to safety. Bitcoin ETF outflows of $424.7M in 24 hours and a Crypto Fear and Greed score of 22 (Extreme Fear) are contrarian signals worth watching: Bitcoin sits just below its 200-week moving average at $62,632, and funding rates are near flat. The late-cycle framework is confirmed by overvalued equities and sticky 4.25% CPI, but Extreme Fear in crypto with stable DeFi TVL and rising DEX volume (up 33%) suggests selective crypto accumulation has asymmetric merit. Gold at $4,023.80 and rising real yields at 2.32% argue against broad bond adds. Hold equities; add crypto small on fear.
24h Bias
Defensive tilt; avoid chasing tech dips
Equities
Hold; trim tech, add utilities on weakness
Bonds
Avoid duration; real yields at 2.32% cap upside
Commodities
Add small gold; geopolitical bid intact
Crypto
Add small Bitcoin near 200-week average
Vol hedge
Hold VIX exposure; geopolitical risk elevated