Daily Market Report

Tech Surges, Crypto Fears As Dollar Slips

Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST

01Daily Summary

Mixed Signals
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's session delivered a split verdict. Meta rose 5.97% and Nvidia gained 4.03%, lifting the S&P 500 to 7,575 (up 0.42%), while the dollar softened 0.51% and VIX fell to 15.03. Yet over the weekend, crypto slid into fear territory: Bitcoin sits at $62,608 (down 1.78%), the crypto Fear and Greed index reads 28, and Bitcoin trades just below its 200-week moving average at $62,608. Silver dropped 2.78% Friday, adding a cautionary note to the otherwise buoyant equity picture.

S&P 500+0.42%NASDAQ+0.29%US10Y−2 bpWTI−0.19%Gold−1.29%BTC−1.78%ETH−1.59%DXY−0.51%VIX−5.11%

02Macro Snapshot

Stagflation risk rising
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Benchmark Rates Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Fed Ratei 3.50 – 3.75 % unchanged 17 Jun 2026 29 Jul 2026 Fed funds band at 3.50-3.75% signals cautious stance on cuts.
ECB Ratei 2.25 % +25 bp 11 Jun 2026 23 Jul 2026 ECB rate at 2.25% after hike pressures European risk assets.
BoJ Ratei 1.00 % +25 bp 16 Jun 2026 31 Jul 2026 BoJ rate at 1.00% keeps JPY carry trade attractive for risk.
SOFRi 3.53 % −5 bp daily tomorrow SOFR at 3.53% after 5bp drop eases short-end USD funding.
IPOR USDCi 3.59 % +6 bp real-time — USDC IPOR at 3.59% exceeds SOFR showing strong onchain leverage.
IPOR WETHi 1.68 % +0 bp real-time — WETH IPOR at 1.68% indicates cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei 2.19 % — real-time — ETH staking yield at 2.19% reflects steady validator demand.
US Inflation Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
TruCPI-US (headline)i 1.93 % +0.04 pp daily tomorrow Truflation at 1.93% runs cooler than official CPI.
CPI YoY (headline)i 4.2 % +0.4 pp 10 Jun 2026 14 Jul 2026 Headline CPI at 4.2% keeps Fed cautious on further cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i 2.9 % +0.1 pp 10 Jun 2026 14 Jul 2026 Core CPI at 2.9% shows persistent inflation above target.
PCE YoY (headline)i 4.1 % +0.3 pp 25 Jun 2026 30 Jul 2026 Headline PCE at 4.1% remains well above the 2% target.
PCE YoY (core)i 3.4 % +0.1 pp 25 Jun 2026 30 Jul 2026 Core PCE at 3.4% stays sticky far above the 2% target.
PPI YoY (headline)i 6.4 % +0.8 pp 11 Jun 2026 15 Jul 2026 PPI at 6.4% signals upstream inflation that may feed into CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i 4.9 % +0.0 pp 11 Jun 2026 15 Jul 2026 Core PPI at 4.9% indicates persistent upstream price pressures.
Euro Area Inflationi Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Euro Area 3.1 % +0.1 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Euro area HICP at 3.1% exceeds ECB target delaying cuts.
Romania 9.7 % +0.2 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Romania HICP at 9.7% remains hottest due to fiscal factors.
Bulgaria 6.3 % +0.3 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Bulgaria HICP at 6.3% reflects euro convergence pressures.
Poland 3.3 % −0.0 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Poland HICP at 3.3% keeps central bank on hold.
Germany 2.7 % −0.2 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 German HICP at 2.7% anchors euro area inflation near target.
France 2.8 % +0.3 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 France HICP at 2.8% sits above target but cooler than peers.
Labor Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) 158.98 M jobs +57 k 2 Jul 2026 7 Aug 2026 NFP gain of 57k signals labor market cooling.
Unemployment Ratei 4.2 % −0.1 pp 2 Jul 2026 7 Aug 2026 Unemployment at 4.2% points to rising slack and easing.
Activity Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY) +1.7 % +0.3 pp 15 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Industrial production up 1.7% YoY indicates steady activity.
Retail Salesi (m/m) +1.0 % +0.7 pp 17 Jun 2026 16 Jul 2026 Retail sales up 1.0% m/m show resilient consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi 53.3 +0.6 June 2026 — ISM manufacturing at 53.3 confirms factory sector expansion.
ISM Services PMIi 54.0 +0.4 June 2026 — ISM
Yield Curve Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi 38 bp — daily tomorrow Positive curve. Recession odds receding.
Sentiment Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) 50 (Neutral) +2 daily tomorrow
Crypto Fear & Greedi 28 (Fear) +2 daily tomorrow
News Sentimenti −8 (Fear) −20 every 30 min —

03News Sentiment

Fear
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −44 to +35 · current −8 (Fear) · −20 24h
7 days ago today
Direction
bull 50% bear 50% ± 20% uncertainty
Coverage
macro 60% crypto 22% mixed 18%
What's driving today's news sentiment Top 1 · sorted by impact
−29 Bearish medium-term
El Niño and Iran Conflict Amplify Food Inflation Pressures
Weather and geopolitical shocks worsen food inflation concerns, sustaining inflation pressures and economic uncertainty, which weigh on crypto market sentiment.
bloomberg.comconf 75% Market-Wide

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Mixed
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's tech session split cleanly between momentum winners and the rest: Meta Platforms surged nearly 6% and Nvidia added 4%, carrying the cohort while Amazon, Alphabet, and Intel all closed lower. Five of nine names finished in the green, but the gains were heavily concentrated in two names, leaving the broader tech basket essentially flat on the day.

AAPLApple
$315.32−0.28%
1D Range $312.17 — $316.91
1M Range $275.15 — $316.22
P/E TTMi37.8 P/E Fwdi32.7 50-DMAi+5.9% 200-DMAi+15.7% RSI(14)i63 YTDi+16.3% % from ATHi−0.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.87
MSFTMicrosoft
$385.10+0.19%
1D Range $381.50 — $391.88
1M Range $352.83 — $399.76
P/E TTMi22.8 P/E Fwdi19.8 50-DMAi−4.6% 200-DMAi−12.9% RSI(14)i48 YTDi−18.6% % from ATHi−30.7% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.59
GOOGLAlphabet
$357.18−0.48%
1D Range $352.75 — $357.82
1M Range $337.39 — $373.25
P/E TTMi27.0 P/E Fwdi24.2 50-DMAi−4.2% 200-DMAi+12.0% RSI(14)i47 YTDi+13.3% % from ATHi−12.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.37
AMZNAmazon
$245.34−0.69%
1D Range $244.41 — $251.03
1M Range $227.01 — $247.04
P/E TTMi29.0 P/E Fwdi24.3 50-DMAi−3.4% 200-DMAi+5.1% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+8.3% % from ATHi−11.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.53
NVDANVIDIA
$210.96+4.03%
1D Range $201.92 — $211.00
1M Range $192.53 — $212.45
P/E TTMi32.1 P/E Fwdi23.5 50-DMAi+0.8% 200-DMAi+10.1% RSI(14)i57 YTDi+11.7% % from ATHi−10.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.21
METAMeta Platforms
$669.21+5.97%
1D Range $658.01 — $677.85
1M Range $542.87 — $669.21
P/E TTMi24.0 P/E Fwdi19.1 50-DMAi+11.5% 200-DMAi+4.1% RSI(14)i66 YTDi+2.9% % from ATHi−16.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.10
TSLATesla
$407.76+0.30%
1D Range $402.81 — $413.16
1M Range $375.12 — $425.30
P/E TTMi340.2 P/E Fwdi166.0 50-DMAi−0.4% 200-DMAi−2.5% RSI(14)i51 YTDi−6.9% % from ATHi−18.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.79
INTCIntel
$109.84−2.40%
1D Range $107.45 — $110.85
1M Range $107.04 — $140.94
P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi69.3 50-DMAi−6.1% 200-DMAi+75.8% RSI(14)i43 YTDi+178.9% % from ATHi−22.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.44
AMDAMD
$557.89+2.04%
1D Range $540.05 — $560.25
1M Range $452.40 — $580.91
P/E TTMi181.7 P/E Fwdi41.8 50-DMAi+15.8% 200-DMAi+93.9% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+149.6% % from ATHi−4.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.43

04.2Recent IPOs

Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
SPCXSpaceX
IPO'd 12 Jun 2026
$145.30−4.51%
1D Range $145.20 — $150.57
1M Range $145.30 — $201.80
Mkt Capi$1.90T IPO-day Vali$2.10T IPO-to-Datei−9.7% Floati6.1B · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a P/E FwdiFY27E · 234x RSI(14)i44% from ATHi−35.6%

04.3Indices

Bullishi
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The S&P 500 edged up 0.42% at Friday's close while small caps (Russell 2000) fell 0.49%, a divergence that underscores the cap-weighted index's continued reliance on large-name outperformance. Breadth is notably constructive on a YTD basis: the equal-weight RSP is actually ahead of the cap-weighted S&P 500 by 0.66 percentage points (+11.12% vs +10.45%), meaning the average member is keeping pace with - and slightly beating - the index heavyweights, a sign that leadership is not dangerously narrow at this stage. The Nasdaq and Dow both gained 0.29%, while the semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was essentially flat. Internationally, the Nikkei dropped 2.36%, the standout laggard, while European and emerging-market benchmarks posted modest gains. VIX fell 5.11% to 15.03, signaling a calmer volatility backdrop heading into the new week.

US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,575.39+0.42%
1D Range 7,508.16 — 7,579.93
1M Range 7,267.00 — 7,575.39
50-DMAi+1.9% 200-DMAi+8.8% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+10.5% % from ATHi−0.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.80
IXICNasdaq Comp.
26,281.61+0.29%
1D Range 26,009.49 — 26,301.54
1M Range 25,169.50 — 26,683.94
50-DMAi+0.9% 200-DMAi+10.5% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+13.1% % from ATHi−3.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.65
DJIDow Jones Ind.
52,637.01+0.29%
1D Range 52,266.81 — 52,709.75
1M Range 49,918.79 — 53,055.91
50-DMAi+3.4% 200-DMAi+8.3% RSI(14)i61 YTDi+8.8% % from ATHi−0.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.62
RUTRussell 2000
2,977.81−0.49%
1D Range 2,963.16 — 2,998.18
1M Range 2,835.46 — 3,024.37
50-DMAi+2.5% 200-DMAi+12.8% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+18.7% % from ATHi−2.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.67
SOXXSemiconductors
581.34−0.06%
1D Range 566.67 — 585.79
1M Range 541.51 — 655.01
50-DMAi+4.1% 200-DMAi+51.4% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+85.3% % from ATHi−11.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.40
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
214.30+0.37%
1D Range 213.06 — 214.59
1M Range 206.53 — 215.00
50-DMAi+3.0% 200-DMAi+8.4% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+11.1% vs SPX YTDi+0.7pp Cap-weight sharei-6%
VIXiVolatility Idx
15.03−5.11%
1D Range 14.96 — 16.16
1M Range 15.03 — 22.22
50-DMAi−13.4% 200-DMAi−19.5% RSI(14)i42 YTDi+3.6%
MOVEiMOVE Index
69.55+0.96%
5D Range 65.76 — 72.41
1M Range 65.39 — 73.95
50-DMAi−3.7% 200-DMAi−3.7% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+11.5%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
113.76−0.51%
5D Range 113.76 — 114.35
1M Range 111.99 — 114.67
50-DMAi+1.5% 200-DMAi+1.9% RSI(14)i59 YTDi+2.3%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,497.29+0.24%
1D Range 10,462.75 — 10,513.90
1M Range 10,363.27 — 10,679.03
50-DMAi+0.8% 200-DMAi+3.7% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+5.5% % from ATHi−4.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.49
N225Nikkei 225
66,942.09−2.36%
1D Range 66,934.57 — 69,078.21
1M Range 66,819.05 — 72,366.34
50-DMAi+1.3% 200-DMAi+20.5% RSI(14)i46 YTDi+29.2% % from ATHi−7.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.16
HSIHang Seng
24,118.04−0.24%
1D Range 24,064.00 — 24,446.50
1M Range 22,671.87 — 24,842.68
50-DMAi−3.1% 200-DMAi−6.7% RSI(14)i51 YTDi−8.4% % from ATHi−14.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.08
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
204.63+0.44%
1D Range 203.09 — 204.74
1M Range 197.36 — 204.63
50-DMAi+1.6% 200-DMAi+7.8% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+9.7% % from ATHi−0.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.61
EEMMSCI Emerging
66.90+0.18%
1D Range 66.19 — 67.02
1M Range 64.66 — 71.21
50-DMAi−0.2% 200-DMAi+12.4% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+19.0% % from ATHi−6.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.53
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
42.2Overvalued
+0.44% today
Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−4.5%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
32.6Overvalued
+0.44% today
Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP
218.1Overvalued
 
Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.6%
Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst
Real Estate+1.55%
Tech+1.50%
Materials+0.84%
Utilities+0.72%
Staples+0.67%
Telecom+0.50%
Energy−0.07%
Discretionary−0.73%
Financials−0.93%
Industrials−1.62%
Healthcare−1.67%

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

Bid
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Treasuries rallied modestly across the curve on Friday, with the 2-year yield dropping 5 basis points to 4.16% and the 10-year easing 2 bp to 4.54%, steepening the 2s10s spread to +38 bp. Real rates held steady at 2.31% on the 10-year TIPS, while the 10-year breakeven ticked up 1 bp to 2.24%, suggesting the rally was driven by nominal rate relief rather than a shift in inflation expectations. Credit spreads were unchanged on the day: HY OAS at 270 bp and IG OAS at 76 bp, offering no fresh signal on risk appetite from the credit side.

US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.16%−5 bp
5D Range 4.13 — 4.21
1M Range 4.05 — 4.24
5-day Δ−1 bp YTD Δ+69 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.54%−2 bp
5D Range 4.48 — 4.56
1M Range 4.38 — 4.56
10–2 spread+38 bp YTD Δ+35 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
5.05%−1 bp
5D Range 4.98 — 5.06
1M Range 4.86 — 5.06
5-day Δ+8 bp YTD Δ+19 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.41T +$19.2B (1d)
+7.7% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.34T +11.1% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.41%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.41% +0.10pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.7%
~$10.15T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.31% 0 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.24% +1 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.70% 0 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.76% 0 bp
tight · late-cycle

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Steady
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Truflation's daily year-over-year read sits at 1.93%, up just 5 basis points over the past month and tracking 2.32 percentage points below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2%. The trend is steady, with transport the top contributor adding 0.65 pp to the headline, and the one-year change of +0.24 pp suggests only gradual upward drift in the real-time series.

1.93%
Daily +0.04 pp
1-mo +0.05 pp
1-yr +0.24 pp
Daily Data By
About the number
Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.
Truflation data as of 2026-07-12
vs BLS CPI official 4.2% (May 2026, monthly · lagged) −2.32 ppbelow official print next BLS CPI: 14 Jul 2026

Index Components

12 basket categories · sorted by weight
Category Inflation (YoY)i Contributioni Trend (1-mo)i
Housing
23.1% of basket
 +0.13%
+0.03 pp
Heating +0.21 pp
Transport
19.8% of basket
 +3.28%
+0.65 pp
Cooling −0.94 pp
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
 +2.01%
+0.31 pp
Heating +2.00 pp
Health
8.8% of basket
 +0.71%
+0.06 pp
Cooling −0.26 pp
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
 +2.46%
+0.17 pp
Cooling −1.03 pp
Utilities
6.0% of basket
 +2.95%
+0.18 pp
Heating +0.11 pp
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
 +2.45%
+0.14 pp
Cooling −0.13 pp
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
 +6.40%
+0.24 pp
Heating +0.75 pp
Other
3.4% of basket
 +3.01%
+0.10 pp
Cooling −0.30 pp
Communications
3.3% of basket
 -0.11%
0.00 pp
Cooling −0.05 pp
Education
2.3% of basket
 +2.56%
+0.06 pp
Cooling −0.90 pp
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
 +3.84%
+0.07 pp
Cooling −0.91 pp

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Bid
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The 10-year JGB yield fell a sharp 10 basis points on Friday to 2.76%, the most notable move on the curve, while the 30-year held at 3.94% and the 2-year at 1.43%. The 2s10s JGB spread remains steep at +133 bp, reflecting ongoing duration pressure at the long end relative to the BoJ's 1.00% policy rate anchor. For yen-carry positions, the combination of a still-elevated long end and a policy rate well below market yields keeps the funding-cost calculus in focus.

JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.43%−1 bp
5D Range 1.40 — 1.44
1M Range 1.38 — 1.44
5-day Δ+4 bp YTD Δ+24 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.76%−10 bp
5D Range 2.76 — 2.87
1M Range 2.59 — 2.87
10–2 spread+133 bp YTD Δ+65 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
3.94%−8 bp
5D Range 3.94 — 4.01
1M Range 3.71 — 4.01
5-day Δ−0 bp YTD Δ+54 bp

04.7Commodities

Bearish
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Precious metals sold off at Friday's close, with Gold (XAU) down 1.29% to $4,060.80 and Silver dropping a sharper 2.78% to $58.49, widening the gold-silver ratio and suggesting silver's industrial demand component faced additional pressure. Energy price levels were unavailable in this snapshot, though WTI slipped fractionally while Brent posted a 1.28% gain and Natural Gas fell 1.50%, pointing to a mixed energy complex.

CLWTI Crude
$69.60−0.19%
5D Range $69.60 — $71.87
1M Range $69.60 — $96.83
50-DMAi−25.2% 200-DMAi−7.5% RSI(14)i27 YTDi+21.7%
COBrent
$69.56+1.28%
5D Range $68.53 — $70.46
1M Range $68.53 — $97.46
50-DMAi−27.3% 200-DMAi−14.4% RSI(14)i28 YTDi+12.2%
NGNatural Gas
$3.29−1.50%
5D Range $3.29 — $3.34
1M Range $3.05 — $3.34
50-DMAi+9.2% 200-DMAi−11.6% RSI(14)i57 YTDi+16.7%
XAUGold
$4,060.80−1.29%
5D Range $4,058.10 — $4,111.60
1M Range $4,008.80 — $4,209.00
50-DMAi−5.7% 200-DMAi−11.7% RSI(14)i40 YTDi−7.4%
XAGSilver
$58.49−2.78%
5D Range $58.38 — $59.80
1M Range $58.09 — $65.62
50-DMAi−16.9% 200-DMAi−16.0% RSI(14)i37 YTDi−19.7%

04.8Crypto Assets

Bearish
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Crypto is broadly lower in the current session, with Bitcoin off 1.78% to $62,607.99, Ethereum down 1.59% to $1,776.84, and Solana sliding 1.34% to $75.84, pulling total crypto market cap down 1.46% over 24 hours. Sentiment sits at 28 on the Fear and Greed Index, firmly in Fear territory, consistent with the price action. BTC dominance holds at 56.0%, reflecting relative resilience in the largest asset versus altcoins. Against the bearish price backdrop, spot ETF flows remain constructive: BTC ETFs attracted $90M and ETH ETFs $18M in the latest day, and DeFi TVL is actually up 0.35% over 24 hours. BTC perpetual funding at +7.86% APR signals longs are still paying a premium to hold, while ETH funding at +1.14% APR is near neutral.

BTCBitcoin
$62,607.99−1.78%
1D Range $62,595.30 — $64,252.10
1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,276.80
50-DMAi−3.9% 200-DMAi−15.4% 200-WMAi($63,084.49) −0.8% RSI(14)i47 % from ATHi−50.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.64
ETHEthereum
$1,776.84−1.59%
1D Range $1,775.30 — $1,838.48
1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,805.51
50-DMAi+0.5% 200-DMAi−20.2% 200-WMAi($2,474.86) −28.2% RSI(14)i54 % from ATHi−63.6% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.50
SOLSolana
$75.84−1.34%
1D Range $75.65 — $77.93
1M Range $67.61 — $82.28
50-DMAi+1.7% 200-DMAi−17.5% 200-WMAi($107.56) −29.5% RSI(14)i49 % from ATHi−74.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.65
ENAEthena
$0.0783−3.11%
1D Range $0.0779 — $0.0822
1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0955
50-DMAi−13.0% 200-DMAi−34.8% RSI(14)i46 % from ATHi−94.9% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.90
HYPEHyperliquid
$65.02−3.38%
1D Range $65.02 — $68.04
1M Range $61.39 — $73.57
50-DMAi−0.1% 200-DMAi+54.4% RSI(14)i48 % from ATHi−13.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.97
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001477+4.80%
1D Range $0.001385 — $0.001511
1M Range $0.001197 — $0.001632
50-DMAi−1.5% 200-DMAi−22.2% RSI(14)i49 % from ATHi−82.8% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.37
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.25T −1.78%
56.0% of total
ETH Mcap
$214.5B −1.59%
9.6% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$311.7B +0.02%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.25T −1.46%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$48.9B +3.64%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$5.6B +4.54%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$158.5B +28.55%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$2.9B +58.63%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$73.8B +0.35%
all chains
Lending TVL
$38.8B −0.00%
money markets
DEX TVL
$11.6B −0.32%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.19%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+7.86% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+1.14% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.54 large traders long
1.54× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
28 Fear
Δ +2 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.59% +0.06 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.86%
USDTi
2.99% −0.54 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 2.95%
DAIi
3.53% −0.00 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.53%
WETHi
1.68% −0.00 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.69%

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Accumulating
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Corporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial: tracked wallets hold 1,279,883 BTC (6.09% of supply, ~$80.3B), 7,751,768 ETH (6.42% of supply, ~$13.8B), and 19,021,279 SOL (3.27% of supply, ~$1.4B). Spot ETF flows over the latest day were positive for BTC ($+90M) and ETH ($+18M), with SOL flat, and the 7-day cumulative picture reinforces the trend: BTC has pulled in $197M and ETH $84M over the past week.

Asset Total Held USD Value % of Supply Top Public Holders
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
 1.28 M BTC $80.3 B 6.09% Strategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
 7.75 M ETH $13.8 B 6.42% BitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎
Solana
SOL
 19.02 M SOL $1.4 B 3.27% Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Public-company treasuries3 assets
₿BitcoinBTC
$80.3 B
1.28 M BTC
% of supply6.09%
Top public holdersStrategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
ΞEthereumETH
$13.8 B
7.75 M ETH
% of supply6.42%
Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎SolanaSOL
$1.4 B
19.02 M SOL
% of supply3.27%
Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB… Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM) 1. IBIT BlackRock $46.8 B 2. FBTC Fidelity $10.2 B 3. GBTC Grayscale $8.7 B 4. BTC Grayscale Mini $3.6 B 5. ARKB ARK 21Shares $2.4 B + 8 more Flow data as of 10 Jul 2026
AUM
$76.8 B
24h Flow+$90 M
7-day Flow+$197 M
YTD Flowi−$5.26 B
ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH… Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM) 1. ETHA BlackRock $4.9 B 2. ETH Grayscale Mini $1.5 B 3. ETHE Grayscale $1.4 B 4. FETH Fidelity $750.9 M 5. ETHB BlackRock $510.9 M + 5 more Flow data as of 10 Jul 2026
AUM
$9.4 B
24h Flow+$18 M
7-day Flow+$84 M
YTD Flowi−$1.35 B
SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL… Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM) 1. BSOL Bitwise $634.1 M 2. GSOL Grayscale $101.5 M 3. VSOL VanEck $15.1 M 4. SOEZ Franklin $8.8 M 5. TSOL VanEck $3.0 M + 1 more Flow data as of 10 Jul 2026
AUM
$762.5 M
24h Flow+$0 M
7-day Flow+$2 M
YTD Flowi−$27 M

04.10Smart Money Positioning

Adding
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The biggest 24-hour add was Bitget Token (BGB), with tracked wallets adding $614K to bring the position to $93.0M across 4 wallets. The largest trim was Litentry / Heima (LIT), which saw $379K exit over 24 hours despite the 7-day flow remaining positive. Net across the cohort, smart-money positioning moved $409K higher on the day.

Total tracked$835.5M
Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist
Net change 24h+$409K
Data by
Paid per call x402by
Largest holdings10 tokens · $833.2M held
# Token · what it is Held · wallets Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. Mkt cap
1
AETHWETHEthereum
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
$176.4M
3 wallets
 -$140K -$1.63M building $4.10B
2
LITEthereum
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
$152.8M
4 wallets
 -$379K +$187K building $629.6M
3
UNIEthereum
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
$143.5M
26 wallets
 -$116K -$19K building $2.19B
4
ONDOEthereum
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
$94.0M
13 wallets
 +$23K +$345K building $1.54B
5
BGBEthereum
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
$93.0M
4 wallets
 +$614K +$369K building $1.14B
6
WLDEthereum
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
$81.4M
21 wallets
 +$409K -$74K building $1.47B
7
WLFIEthereum
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
$43.1M
1 wallet
 +$50K -$7K building $1.83B
8
MORPHOEthereum
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
$17.6M
5 wallets
 -$12K -$136K building $1.30B
9
USTBEthereum
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
$16.9M
6 wallets
 -$8K -$761K building $787.2M
10
STETHEthereum
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
$14.5M
10 wallets
 -$32K +$316K building $16.36B
1AETHWETHEthereum
$176.4M
3 wallets
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
24h-$140K 7d-$1.63M
2LITEthereum
$152.8M
4 wallets
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
24h-$379K 7d+$187K
3UNIEthereum
$143.5M
26 wallets
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
24h-$116K 7d-$19K
4ONDOEthereum
$94.0M
13 wallets
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
24h+$23K 7d+$345K
5BGBEthereum
$93.0M
4 wallets
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
24h+$614K 7d+$369K
6WLDEthereum
$81.4M
21 wallets
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
24h+$409K 7d-$74K
7WLFIEthereum
$43.1M
1 wallet
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
24h+$50K 7d-$7K
8MORPHOEthereum
$17.6M
5 wallets
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
24h-$12K 7d-$136K
9USTBEthereum
$16.9M
6 wallets
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
24h-$8K 7d-$761K
10STETHEthereum
$14.5M
10 wallets
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
24h-$32K 7d+$316K
Small-cap watch5 tokens · $2.2M held
# Token · what it is Held · wallets Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. Mkt cap
1
PENGUSolana
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
$1.2M
11 wallets
 +$406 -$353 building $372.4M
2
USELESSSolana
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
$593.1K
7 wallets
 -$221 +$8K building $85.2M
3
DRVEthereum
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
$170.0K
10 wallets
 -$480 -$674 building $120.6M
4
PEARArbitrum
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
$137.8K
2 wallets
 -$66 -$109K building $8.2M
5
PUMPSolana
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
$112.6K
13 wallets
 -$45K -$43K building $596.8M
1PENGUSolana
$1.2M
11 wallets
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
24h+$406 7d-$353
2USELESSSolana
$593.1K
7 wallets
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
24h-$221 7d+$8K
3DRVEthereum
$170.0K
10 wallets
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
24h-$480 7d-$674
4PEARArbitrum
$137.8K
2 wallets
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
24h-$66 7d-$109K
5PUMPSolana
$112.6K
13 wallets
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
24h-$45K 7d-$43K

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Asset Last Trendi Supporti Resistancei RSIi RSI Status Signal
SPX S&P 500 7,575.39 Bullish 7,433.12 7,579.93 60 Neutral Buyconf 75%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp. 26,281.61 Bullish 26,048.49 26,301.54 55 Neutral Buyconf 75%
DXY Dollar Index 113.76 USD ↑ 112.06 114.35 59 Neutral Sellconf 75%
VIX Volatility 15.03 Suppressed 14.96 17.36 42 Neutral Hedgeconf 70%
US10Y US 10Y Yield 4.54% Yields ↑ 4.48% 4.56% 57 Neutral Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude $69.60 Bearish $69.60 $75.22 27 Oversold Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold $4,061 Bearish $4,058 $4,307 40 Neutral Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin $62,608 Bearish $62,595 $65,134 47 Neutral Sellconf 75%
ETH Ethereum $1,777 Sideways $1,767 $2,227 54 Neutral Holdconf 50%

06Key Events

Next 7 days
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

A heavy macro and earnings week opens Monday: four major US banks - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America - report Tuesday through Monday, setting the tone for financials before Johnson and Johnson and Morgan Stanley follow on Tuesday. On the macro side, PPI (Wednesday), Retail Sales (Thursday), and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Housing Starts, and Building Permits trio (Friday) are the key data points to watch across 12 high-impact US releases this week.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     CPI YoY (Jun)prev 4.20 % High
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     CPI MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.50 % High
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core CPI MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.20 % High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Retail Sales MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.90 % High
  • Fri
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Housing Starts (Jun)Est: 1.33 M · prev 1.18 M High
  • Fri
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)Est: 51 · prev 49.50 High
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core CPI YoY (Jun)Est: 2.90 % · prev 2.90 % Medium
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     CPI (Jun)Est: 335.1 % · prev 335.1 % Medium
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     CPI s.a (Jun)Est: 334 · prev 334.0 Medium
  • Wed
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PPI MoM (Jun)Est: 0.40 % · prev 0.40 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/11)Est: 218 K · prev 215 K Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.80 % Medium
  • Fri
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Housing Starts MoM (Jun)Est: 0 % · prev -15.40 % Medium
  • Fri
    13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST     Industrial Production MoM (Jun)Est: 0.20 % · prev 0.10 % Medium
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core CPI (Jun)prev 336.1 % Low
  • Wed
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.80 % Low
  • Wed
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PPI YoY (Jun)Est: 4.90 % · prev 4.90 % Low
  • Wed
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY (Jun)Est: 5 % · prev 5.10 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Retail Sales YoY (Jun)Est: 6.70 % · prev 6.90 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.50 % Low
  • Fri
    13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST     Industrial Production YoY (Jun)Est: 1.50 % · prev 1.70 % Low
1 / 4

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

  • Tomorrow · After close JPM — JPMorgan ChaseEPS est $5.59 (+13% YoY) · Rev est $51.1B (+14% YoY) High
  • Tomorrow · After close BAC — Bank of AmericaEPS est $1.13 (+27% YoY) · Rev est $30.8B (+16% YoY) High
  • Tomorrow · After close GS — Goldman SachsEPS est $14.47 (+33% YoY) · Rev est $16.2B (+11% YoY) High
  • Tomorrow · After close WFC — Wells FargoEPS est $1.73 (+12% YoY) · Rev est $21.9B (+5% YoY) High
  • Wed · After close MS — Morgan StanleyEPS est $2.89 (+36% YoY) · Rev est $19.7B (+26% YoY) High
  • Wed · After close JNJ — Johnson & JohnsonEPS est $2.85 (+3% YoY) · Rev est $25.0B (+5% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close TSM — Taiwan Semi (TSMC)EPS est $3.80 (+52% YoY) · Rev est $39.9B (+26% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close NFLX — NetflixEPS est $0.79 (+10% YoY) · Rev est $12.6B (+14% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close UNH — UnitedHealthEPS est $4.84 (+19% YoY) · Rev est $110.8B (−1% YoY) High
1 / 2

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Late-cyclei
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

A reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018), reassessed about every two weeks.

Today's read

Economy, Outlook, Lenders, Capital Markets, Capital, Terms, Interest Rates, and Investors all lean warm, reflecting elevated valuations (CAPE 10 at 41.39, Trailing P/E at 31.98), strong manufacturing and services PMIs (54.0 and 54.5), and persistent above-target inflation (4.25% headline CPI). Only Yield Spreads turn cold, with HY OAS at 280 bp and IG OAS at 76 bp signaling credit caution amid otherwise buoyant conditions.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 25 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Wait
Refreshed 13 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Wait. Geopolitical shock risk and stretched valuations argue for patience here

This is a Monday open with crypto trading through the weekend and the news cycle doing real work. Bitcoin sits just below its 200-week moving average at 62,608, down roughly 1.8% since Friday, while the crypto Fear and Greed index registers 28 - Fear territory. That would normally invite a contrarian lean, but the news backdrop complicates it: per Bloomberg, US-Iran strikes are driving energy spikes and renewed rate-hike expectations, compounding already-hot inflation (headline CPI at 4.25%, PPI at 6.42%). The 30-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.05% with real yields at 2.31%, making duration genuinely competitive. Friday's equity tape showed a 3.22 percentage-point spread between Real Estate (+1.55%) and Healthcare (-1.67%), a late-cycle rotation tell that fits the cycle framework's warm read. Meta and Nvidia surged 5.97% and 4.03% respectively, but chasing mega-cap tech into Tuesday's CPI print at these valuations is a poor risk-reward. Hold cash, watch the CPI release, and reassess.

24h Bias
Cautious; CPI print due Tuesday
Equities
Hold; avoid chasing Friday's tech surge
Bonds
Add small at 5.05% on the long end
Commodities
Wait; Iran risk clouds oil entry
Crypto
Wait for BTC to reclaim 62,608 cleanly
Vol hedge
Hold light VIX hedge into CPI