Daily Market Report
Crypto Fear Meets Equity Calm This Weekend
01Daily Summary
This weekend's clearest divergence sits between crypto and equities. Bitcoin holds near $63,968, just 1.7% above its 200-week moving average, while the crypto Fear and Greed index sits at 26 (Fear) and total market cap slips 0.2% over 24 hours. Bitcoin ETF flows remain modestly positive at $90.4 million in the latest session, but news sentiment reads sharply bearish at -24, driven by geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Friday's equity session was calmer: the S&P 500 closed at 7,575 with the VIX easing to 15.03.
S&P 500+0.42%NASDAQ+0.29%US10Y−2 bpWTI−0.19%Gold−0.65%BTC+0.30%ETH+1.00%DXY−0.51%VIX−5.11%
- Driver:Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East is dominating weekend news sentiment, pushing the JungleTrade score to -24 (Bearish Bias).
- Cross-asset:Friday: S&P 500 +0.42%, Meta +5.97%, Nvidia +4.03%; DXY fell 0.51%; gold slipped 0.65%; crypto flat to slightly lower this weekend.
- Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 5.05%; 2s10s spread at 38 basis points; 10-year real yield 2.31%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) steady at 270 basis points.
- Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 26 (Fear); equity Fear and Greed neutral at 49.5; Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.39; funding rates near zero, signaling low leverage.
- Forward bias:China June trade data (imports, exports, balance) due Tuesday; a soft read would pressure risk assets and could tip the regime toward Risk-Off.
02Macro Snapshot
Stagflation risk rising| Benchmark Rates | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Ratei | 3.50 – 3.75 % | unchanged | 17 Jun 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | Fed funds at 3.50 to 3.75 percent signal steady policy for risk assets. |
| ECB Ratei | 2.25 % | +25 bp | 11 Jun 2026 | 23 Jul 2026 | ECB rate at 2.25 percent after June hike pressures euro risk assets. |
| BoJ Ratei | 1.00 % | +25 bp | 16 Jun 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 | BoJ rate at 1.00 percent keeps yen carry trade attractive for global risk. |
| SOFRi | 3.53 % | −5 bp | daily | tomorrow | SOFR at 3.53 percent after five basis point drop eases short term funding. |
| IPOR USDCi | 3.73 % | +20 bp | real-time | — | USDC IPOR at 3.73 percent beats SOFR indicating strong onchain leverage demand. |
| IPOR WETHi | 1.69 % | +0 bp | real-time | — | WETH IPOR at 1.69 percent reflects cooling onchain ETH leverage demand. |
| ETH Ratei | 2.20 % | — | real-time | — | ETH staking yield at 2.20 percent offers native return on holding staked ether. |
| US Inflation | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TruCPI-US (headline)i | 1.88 % | +0.05 pp | daily | tomorrow | Truflation CPI at 1.88 percent runs cooler than official prints signaling disinflation. |
| CPI YoY (headline)i | 4.2 % | +0.4 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Headline CPI at 4.2 percent keeps Fed cautious on further rate cuts. |
| CPI YoY (core)i | 2.9 % | +0.1 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Core CPI at 2.9 percent shows persistent inflation above the Fed target. |
| PCE YoY (headline)i | 4.1 % | +0.3 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Headline PCE at 4.1 percent remains above target keeping Fed policy restrictive. |
| PCE YoY (core)i | 3.4 % | +0.1 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Core PCE at 3.4 percent stays sticky well above the two percent target. |
| PPI YoY (headline)i | 6.4 % | +0.8 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | Producer prices at 6.4 percent point to upstream inflation feeding into CPI later. |
| PPI YoY (core)i | 4.9 % | +0.0 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | Core PPI at 4.9 percent signals persistent upstream price pressures. |
| Euro Area Inflationi | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Area | 3.1 % | +0.1 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Euro area HICP at 3.1 percent keeps ECB on hold above target. |
| Romania | 9.7 % | +0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Romania HICP at 9.7 percent reflects fiscal tightening and tax driven inflation. |
| Bulgaria | 6.3 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Bulgaria HICP at 6.3 percent shows elevated inflation post euro adoption. |
| Poland | 3.3 % | −0.0 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Poland HICP at 3.3 percent supports steady central bank policy above target. |
| Germany | 2.7 % | −0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Germany HICP at 2.7 percent anchors euro area inflation near ECB target. |
| France | 2.8 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | France HICP at 2.8 percent sits above ECB target yet among cooler readings. |
| Labor | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) | 158.98 M jobs | +57 k | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Nonfarm payrolls rose 57 thousand showing labor market cooling. |
| Unemployment Ratei | 4.2 % | −0.1 pp | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Unemployment at 4.2 percent signals rising slack prompting Fed easing. |
| Activity | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Productioni (YoY) | +1.7 % | +0.3 pp | 15 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Industrial production rose 1.7 percent year on year showing moderate activity. |
| Retail Salesi (m/m) | +1.0 % | +0.7 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 16 Jul 2026 | Retail sales rose 1.0 percent indicating resilient consumer demand. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMIi | 53.3 | +0.6 | June 2026 | — | |
| ISM Services PMIi | 54.0 | +0.4 | June 2026 | — |
| Yield Curve | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y2Y Spreadi | 38 bp | — | daily | tomorrow | Positive curve. Recession odds receding. |
| Sentiment | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) | 50 (Neutral) | +2 | daily | tomorrow | |
| Crypto Fear & Greedi | 26 (Fear) | — | daily | tomorrow | |
| News Sentimenti | −24 (Fear) | −33 | every 30 min | — |
03News Sentiment
Fear
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed)
range
−44 to +35
·
current
−24
(Fear)
·
−33
24h
7 days ago
today
What's driving today's news sentiment
−15
Neutral
medium-term
Bitcoin leaders Michael Saylor and Adam Back oppose BIP-110 Ordinals amid falling activity
Michael Saylor and Adam Back reject the BIP-110 Ordinals proposal despite a downward trend in Ordinals transaction volume over two years.
0
Neutral
Summary of daily key developments in crypto market including Bitcoin, DeFi, and regulation
cointelegraph.com
04.1Tech Equitiesi
MixedFriday's tech session was a tale of two cohorts: Meta Platforms surged nearly 6% and Nvidia added 4%, carrying the group, while the rest of the Magnificent Seven were largely flat to modestly lower. Intel was the notable laggard, off 2.4%, and Amazon slipped 0.69%, leaving 5 of 9 names in the green on a day where breadth was thin and the headline gains were concentrated.
AAPLApple
$315.32−0.28%
1D Range $312.17 — $316.91
1M Range $275.15 — $316.22
P/E TTMi37.8
P/E Fwdi32.7
50-DMAi+5.9%
200-DMAi+15.7%
RSI(14)i63
YTDi+16.3%
% from ATHi−0.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.87
MSFTMicrosoft
$385.10+0.19%
1D Range $381.50 — $391.88
1M Range $352.83 — $399.76
P/E TTMi22.8
P/E Fwdi19.8
50-DMAi−4.6%
200-DMAi−12.9%
RSI(14)i48
YTDi−18.6%
% from ATHi−30.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.59
GOOGLAlphabet
$357.18−0.48%
1D Range $352.75 — $357.82
1M Range $337.39 — $373.25
P/E TTMi27.0
P/E Fwdi24.3
50-DMAi−4.2%
200-DMAi+12.0%
RSI(14)i47
YTDi+13.3%
% from ATHi−12.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.37
AMZNAmazon
$245.34−0.69%
1D Range $244.41 — $251.03
1M Range $227.01 — $247.04
P/E TTMi29.0
P/E Fwdi24.3
50-DMAi−3.4%
200-DMAi+5.1%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi+8.3%
% from ATHi−11.9%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.53
NVDANVIDIA
$210.96+4.03%
1D Range $201.92 — $211.00
1M Range $192.53 — $212.45
P/E TTMi32.1
P/E Fwdi23.5
50-DMAi+0.8%
200-DMAi+10.1%
RSI(14)i57
YTDi+11.7%
% from ATHi−10.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.21
METAMeta Platforms
$669.21+5.97%
1D Range $658.01 — $677.85
1M Range $542.87 — $669.21
P/E TTMi24.0
P/E Fwdi19.1
50-DMAi+11.5%
200-DMAi+4.1%
RSI(14)i66
YTDi+2.9%
% from ATHi−16.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.10
TSLATesla
$407.76+0.30%
1D Range $402.81 — $413.16
1M Range $375.12 — $425.30
P/E TTMi340.2
P/E Fwdi166.0
50-DMAi−0.4%
200-DMAi−2.5%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi−6.9%
% from ATHi−18.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.79
INTCIntel
$109.84−2.40%
1D Range $107.45 — $110.85
1M Range $107.04 — $140.94
P/E TTMin/a
P/E Fwdi69.3
50-DMAi−6.1%
200-DMAi+75.8%
RSI(14)i43
YTDi+178.9%
% from ATHi−22.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.44
AMDAMD
$557.89+2.04%
1D Range $540.05 — $560.25
1M Range $452.40 — $580.91
P/E TTMi181.7
P/E Fwdi41.8
50-DMAi+15.8%
200-DMAi+93.9%
RSI(14)i58
YTDi+149.6%
% from ATHi−4.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.43
04.2Recent IPOs
SPCXSpaceX
IPO'd 12 Jun 2026 $145.30−4.51%
1D Range $145.20 — $150.57
1M Range $145.30 — $201.80
Mkt Capi$1.90T
IPO-day Vali$2.10T
IPO-to-Datei−9.7%
Floati6.1B · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a
P/E FwdiFY27E · 234x
RSI(14)i44% from ATHi−35.6%
04.3Indices
BullishiUS large caps edged higher at Friday's close, with the S&P 500 up 0.42% and the Dow and Nasdaq each adding 0.29%, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.49%, signaling that small caps continue to underperform. Notably, the cap-weighted S&P 500 YTD return of +10.45% now sits 0.66 percentage points below the equal-weight RSP at +11.12%, meaning the average S&P 500 name is actually outpacing the index - breadth is broadening rather than narrowing, a constructive signal. Volatility retreated sharply, with the VIX falling 5.11% to 15.03 and the MOVE index dropping 4.61% to 65.4, suggesting bond and equity markets are both pricing out near-term risk. World markets were broadly positive, with the Nikkei leading at +1.20% and European and EM names posting modest gains.
US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,575.39+0.42%
1D Range 7,508.16 — 7,579.93
1M Range 7,267.00 — 7,575.39
50-DMAi+1.9%
200-DMAi+8.8%
RSI(14)i60
YTDi+10.5%
% from ATHi−0.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.80
IXICNasdaq Comp.
26,281.61+0.29%
1D Range 26,009.49 — 26,301.54
1M Range 25,169.50 — 26,683.94
50-DMAi+0.9%
200-DMAi+10.5%
RSI(14)i55
YTDi+13.1%
% from ATHi−3.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.65
DJIDow Jones Ind.
52,637.01+0.29%
1D Range 52,266.81 — 52,709.75
1M Range 49,918.79 — 53,055.91
50-DMAi+3.4%
200-DMAi+8.3%
RSI(14)i61
YTDi+8.8%
% from ATHi−0.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.62
RUTRussell 2000
2,977.81−0.49%
1D Range 2,963.16 — 2,998.18
1M Range 2,835.46 — 3,024.37
50-DMAi+2.5%
200-DMAi+12.8%
RSI(14)i54
YTDi+18.7%
% from ATHi−2.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.67
SOXXSemiconductors
581.34−0.06%
1D Range 566.67 — 585.79
1M Range 541.51 — 655.01
50-DMAi+4.1%
200-DMAi+51.4%
RSI(14)i50
YTDi+85.3%
% from ATHi−11.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.40
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
214.30+0.37%
1D Range 213.06 — 214.59
1M Range 206.53 — 215.00
50-DMAi+3.0%
200-DMAi+8.4%
RSI(14)i60
YTDi+11.1%
vs SPX YTDi+0.7pp
Cap-weight sharei-6%
VIXiVolatility Idx
15.03−5.11%
1D Range 14.96 — 16.16
1M Range 15.03 — 22.22
50-DMAi−13.4%
200-DMAi−19.5%
RSI(14)i42
YTDi+3.6%
MOVEiMOVE Index
65.40−4.61%
5D Range 65.40 — 71.96
1M Range 65.39 — 77.03
50-DMAi−9.3%
200-DMAi−9.6%
RSI(14)i42
YTDi+4.9%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
113.76−0.51%
5D Range 113.76 — 114.35
1M Range 111.99 — 114.67
50-DMAi+1.5%
200-DMAi+1.9%
RSI(14)i59
YTDi+2.3%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,497.29+0.24%
1D Range 10,462.75 — 10,513.90
1M Range 10,363.27 — 10,679.03
50-DMAi+0.8%
200-DMAi+3.7%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi+5.5%
% from ATHi−4.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.49
N225Nikkei 225
68,557.73+1.20%
1D Range 67,046.37 — 69,374.86
1M Range 66,020.04 — 72,366.34
50-DMAi+3.8%
200-DMAi+23.4%
RSI(14)i52
YTDi+32.3%
% from ATHi−5.4%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.26
HSIHang Seng
24,175.12+0.60%
1D Range 24,064.62 — 24,499.63
1M Range 22,671.87 — 24,842.68
50-DMAi−2.9%
200-DMAi−6.5%
RSI(14)i52
YTDi−8.2%
% from ATHi−13.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.09
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
204.63+0.44%
1D Range 203.09 — 204.74
1M Range 197.36 — 204.63
50-DMAi+1.6%
200-DMAi+7.8%
RSI(14)i58
YTDi+9.7%
% from ATHi−0.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.61
EEMMSCI Emerging
66.90+0.18%
1D Range 66.19 — 67.02
1M Range 64.66 — 71.21
50-DMAi−0.2%
200-DMAi+12.4%
RSI(14)i49
YTDi+19.0%
% from ATHi−6.1%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.53
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
42.2Overvalued
+0.44% today
Long-run mean17.4
Median16.1
All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999)
% from ATHi−4.5%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
32.6Overvalued
+0.44% today
Long-run mean16.2
Median15.1
All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP
218.1Overvalued
Long-run mean86.1
Median72.1
All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025)
% from ATHi−4.6%
Sector Rotationi
Real Estate+1.55%
Tech+1.50%
Materials+0.84%
Utilities+0.72%
Staples+0.67%
Telecom+0.50%
Energy−0.06%
Discretionary−0.73%
Financials−0.93%
Industrials−1.61%
Healthcare−1.67%
04.4US Treasuries & Credit
BidTreasuries rallied modestly across the curve at Friday's close, with the 2-year yield falling 5 basis points to 4.16% and the 10-year easing 2 bp to 4.54%, steepening the 2s10s spread to +38 bp. Real rates held firm, with the 10-year TIPS yield unchanged at 2.31% while the 10-year breakeven nudged up 1 bp to 2.24%, suggesting the day's nominal rally was driven by a slight uptick in inflation expectations rather than a shift in real demand. Credit spreads were unmoved, with HY OAS flat at 270 bp and IG OAS steady at 76 bp, offering no fresh signal on risk appetite from the credit side.
US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.16%−5 bp
5D Range 4.13 — 4.21
1M Range 4.05 — 4.24
5-day Δ−1 bp
YTD Δ+69 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.54%−2 bp
5D Range 4.48 — 4.56
1M Range 4.38 — 4.56
10–2 spread+38 bp
YTD Δ+35 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
5.05%−1 bp
5D Range 4.98 — 5.06
1M Range 4.86 — 5.06
5-day Δ+8 bp
YTD Δ+19 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.41T
+$19.2B (1d)
+7.7% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.34T
+11.1% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.41%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.41%
+0.10pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.7%
~$10.15T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.31%
0 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.24%
+1 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.70%
0 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.76%
0 bp
tight · late-cycle
04.5US Inflation · Daily
SteadyTruflation's daily year-over-year read sits at 1.88%, up 0.09 percentage points over the past month and running 2.37 percentage points below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2%. Transport is the top contributor, adding 0.63 percentage points to the headline, while the overall trend reads as steady.
1.88%
Daily Data By
Daily
+0.05 pp
1-mo
+0.09 pp
1-yr
+0.21 pp
About the number
Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.
Truflation data as of 2026-07-11
vs BLS CPI official 4.2% (May 2026, monthly · lagged)
−2.37 ppbelow official print
next BLS CPI: 14 Jul 2026
Index Components
12 basket categories · sorted by weight| Category | Inflation (YoY)i | Contributioni | Trend (1-mo)i |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Housing
23.1% of basket
|
+0.13% |
+0.03 pp
|
Heating +0.33 pp |
|
Transport
19.8% of basket
|
+3.18% |
+0.63 pp
|
Cooling −1.20 pp |
|
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
|
+2.01% |
+0.31 pp
|
Heating +2.15 pp |
|
Health
8.8% of basket
|
+0.73% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.13 pp |
|
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
|
+2.48% |
+0.17 pp
|
Cooling −1.59 pp |
|
Utilities
6.0% of basket
|
+2.95% |
+0.18 pp
|
Heating +0.40 pp |
|
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
|
+2.25% |
+0.12 pp
|
Cooling −0.12 pp |
|
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
|
+6.40% |
+0.24 pp
|
Heating +0.62 pp |
|
Other
3.4% of basket
|
+3.10% |
+0.10 pp
|
Heating +0.64 pp |
|
Communications
3.3% of basket
|
-0.11% |
0.00 pp
|
Heating +1.46 pp |
|
Education
2.3% of basket
|
+2.56% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.87 pp |
|
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
|
+2.75% |
+0.05 pp
|
Cooling −1.68 pp |
04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve
OfferedThe JGB curve steepened further at the long end, with the 30-year yield at 4.01% and the 10-year at 2.87% (up 1 bp on the day), producing a 2s10s spread of +142 bp against a 2-year yield of 1.44%. The BoJ policy rate at 1.00% sits well below the 2-year JGB yield, keeping the front end of the curve elevated relative to the policy anchor and sustaining pressure on yen-funded carry positions that rely on low Japanese short-term borrowing costs.
JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.44%+1 bp
5D Range 1.39 — 1.44
1M Range 1.38 — 1.44
5-day Δ+5 bp
YTD Δ+25 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.87%+1 bp
5D Range 2.77 — 2.87
1M Range 2.59 — 2.87
10–2 spread+142 bp
YTD Δ+76 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
4.01%+2 bp
5D Range 3.94 — 4.01
1M Range 3.71 — 4.01
5-day Δ+8 bp
YTD Δ+62 bp
04.7Commodities
BearishPrecious metals softened at Friday's close, with Gold (XAU) slipping 0.65% to $4,113.70 and Silver falling 0.96% to $60.165, though both remain at historically elevated levels. Energy was mixed, with Brent crude gaining 1.28% while WTI edged down 0.19% and Natural Gas fell 1.50%, leaving the energy complex without a clear directional signal.
CLWTI Crude
$69.60−0.19%
5D Range $69.60 — $71.87
1M Range $69.60 — $96.83
50-DMAi−25.2%
200-DMAi−7.5%
RSI(14)i27
YTDi+21.7%
COBrent
$69.56+1.28%
5D Range $68.53 — $70.46
1M Range $68.53 — $97.46
50-DMAi−27.3%
200-DMAi−14.4%
RSI(14)i28
YTDi+12.2%
NGNatural Gas
$3.29−1.50%
5D Range $3.29 — $3.34
1M Range $3.05 — $3.34
50-DMAi+9.2%
200-DMAi−11.6%
RSI(14)i57
YTDi+16.7%
XAUGold
$4,113.70−0.65%
5D Range $4,081.70 — $4,144.60
1M Range $4,008.80 — $4,381.40
50-DMAi−4.7%
200-DMAi−10.5%
RSI(14)i43
YTDi−6.2%
XAGSilver
$60.16−0.96%
5D Range $59.24 — $61.20
1M Range $58.09 — $70.77
50-DMAi−14.5%
200-DMAi−13.6%
RSI(14)i40
YTDi−17.4%
04.8Crypto Assets
MixedBitcoin is holding near $63,968, up 0.30% over 24 hours, while Ethereum is the relative outperformer at $1,804.68, up 1.00%, and Solana is marginally lower at $76.66. Total crypto market cap is down 0.21% and DeFi TVL is off 0.12%, suggesting the session is broadly flat with no strong directional conviction. BTC dominance sits at 56.3%, a level that reflects continued preference for the largest asset over altcoins. Spot ETF flows are modestly positive, with BTC pulling $90M and ETH $18M in the latest session, providing a thin but real demand signal. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reads 26 (Fear), and BTC perpetual funding at +7.65% APR signals that leveraged longs remain in control even as sentiment stays cautious.
BTCBitcoin
$63,968.46+0.30%
1D Range $63,734.28 — $64,171.85
1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,276.80
50-DMAi−2.1%
200-DMAi−13.7%
200-WMAi($62,869.54) +1.7%
RSI(14)i53
% from ATHi−49.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.66
ETHEthereum
$1,804.68+1.00%
1D Range $1,782.50 — $1,811.39
1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,804.80
50-DMAi+1.8%
200-DMAi−19.2%
200-WMAi($2,472.65) −27.0%
RSI(14)i58
% from ATHi−63.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.57
SOLSolana
$76.66−0.20%
1D Range $75.88 — $76.98
1M Range $67.61 — $82.28
50-DMAi+2.6%
200-DMAi−16.9%
200-WMAi($107.33) −28.6%
RSI(14)i51
% from ATHi−73.9%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.72
ENAEthena
$0.0807−2.35%
1D Range $0.0795 — $0.0839
1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0955
50-DMAi−10.3%
200-DMAi−32.8%
RSI(14)i49
% from ATHi−94.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.98
HYPEHyperliquid
$67.11+0.23%
1D Range $66.82 — $67.37
1M Range $60.67 — $73.57
50-DMAi+3.5%
200-DMAi+60.1%
RSI(14)i52
% from ATHi−10.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.95
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001410−1.80%
1D Range $0.001383 — $0.001463
1M Range $0.001197 — $0.001632
50-DMAi−6.0%
200-DMAi−25.8%
RSI(14)i45
% from ATHi−83.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.41
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.28T
+0.30%
56.3% of total
ETH Mcap
$217.8B
+1.00%
9.6% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$311.1B
−0.04%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.28T
−0.21%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$46.6B
+3.16%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$5.4B
−14.95%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$120.1B
+8.07%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$1.9B
−6.12%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$74.1B
−0.12%
all chains
Lending TVL
$38.8B
−0.56%
money markets
DEX TVL
$11.6B
+0.02%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.20%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+7.65% APR
longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+1.08% APR
longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.39
large traders long
1.39× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
26
Fear
0-100 · alternative.me
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.73%
+0.20 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.85%
USDTi
2.92%
−0.61 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 2.89%
DAIi
3.52%
−0.01 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.53%
WETHi
1.69%
−0.00 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.69%
04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows
AccumulatingCorporate treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,279,883 BTC (~$81.8B, 6.09% of supply), 7,751,768 ETH (~$14.0B, 6.42% of supply), and 19,021,279 SOL (~$1.46B, 3.27% of supply) held across tracked entities. Spot ETF flows are positive but measured: BTC has drawn $90M in the latest day and $197M over seven days, while ETH has seen $18M daily and $84M over the week. SOL ETF flows remain negligible at zero on the day and $2M over seven days.
| Asset | Total Held | USD Value | % of Supply | Top Public Holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
|
1.28 M BTC | $81.8 B | 6.09% | Strategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k |
|
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
|
7.75 M ETH | $14.0 B | 6.42% | BitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k |
|
◎
Solana
SOL
|
19.02 M SOL | $1.5 B | 3.27% | Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M |
Public-company treasuries
₿BitcoinBTC
$81.8 B
1.28 M BTC
% of supply6.09%
Top public holdersStrategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
ΞEthereumETH
$14.0 B
7.75 M ETH
% of supply6.42%
Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎SolanaSOL
$1.5 B
19.02 M SOL
% of supply3.27%
Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC
13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…
Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM)
1.
IBIT
BlackRock
$46.8 B
2.
FBTC
Fidelity
$10.2 B
3.
GBTC
Grayscale
$8.7 B
4.
BTC
Grayscale Mini
$3.6 B
5.
ARKB
ARK 21Shares
$2.4 B
+ 8 more
Flow data as of 10 Jul 2026
AUM
$76.8 B
24h Flow+$90 M
7-day Flow+$197 M
YTD Flowi−$5.26 B
ETH
10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…
Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM)
1.
ETHA
BlackRock
$4.9 B
2.
ETH
Grayscale Mini
$1.5 B
3.
ETHE
Grayscale
$1.4 B
4.
FETH
Fidelity
$750.9 M
5.
ETHB
BlackRock
$510.9 M
+ 5 more
Flow data as of 10 Jul 2026
AUM
$9.4 B
24h Flow+$18 M
7-day Flow+$84 M
YTD Flowi−$1.35 B
SOL
6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…
Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM)
1.
BSOL
Bitwise
$634.1 M
2.
GSOL
Grayscale
$101.5 M
3.
VSOL
VanEck
$15.1 M
4.
SOEZ
Franklin
$8.8 M
5.
TSOL
VanEck
$3.0 M
+ 1 more
Flow data as of 10 Jul 2026
AUM
$762.5 M
24h Flow+$0 M
7-day Flow+$2 M
YTD Flowi−$27 M
04.10Smart Money Positioning
TrimmingThe biggest 24-hour add was Litentry/Heima (LIT), where tracked wallets increased exposure by $314K to a $166.0M position across 4 wallets. The largest trim was World Liberty Financial (WLFI), with $435K cut from a $43.0M position in a single wallet over the past day. Overall smart-money positioning saw a net 24-hour outflow of $1.24M across the tracked cohort.
Total tracked$852.6M
Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist
Net change 24h-$1.24M
Data by
Paid per call
x402by
Largest holdings
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure) |
$179.1M
3 wallets
|
-$107K | -$1.87M | building | $4.16B |
| 2 |
LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation |
$166.0M
4 wallets
|
+$314K | -$1.61M | building | $680.2M |
| 3 |
UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX) |
$148.3M
26 wallets
|
-$277K | -$643K | building | $2.27B |
| 4 |
ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets) |
$96.3M
13 wallets
|
-$267K | -$315K | building | $1.59B |
| 5 |
BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange |
$90.8M
4 wallets
|
-$344K | -$182K | building | $1.12B |
| 6 |
WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era |
$77.2M
21 wallets
|
+$20K | -$415K | building | $1.41B |
| 7 |
WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol |
$43.0M
1 wallet
|
-$435K | -$396K | building | $1.84B |
| 8 |
MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer |
$18.0M
5 wallets
|
-$102K | -$209K | building | $1.34B |
| 9 |
USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund |
$16.9M
6 wallets
|
-$468 | -$676K | building | $786.4M |
| 10 |
STETHEthereum Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt |
$14.7M
10 wallets
|
-$43K | +$246K | building | $16.59B |
1AETHWETHEthereum
$179.1M
3 wallets
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
24h-$107K
7d-$1.87M
2LITEthereum
$166.0M
4 wallets
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
24h+$314K
7d-$1.61M
3UNIEthereum
$148.3M
26 wallets
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
24h-$277K
7d-$643K
4ONDOEthereum
$96.3M
13 wallets
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
24h-$267K
7d-$315K
5BGBEthereum
$90.8M
4 wallets
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
24h-$344K
7d-$182K
6WLDEthereum
$77.2M
21 wallets
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
24h+$20K
7d-$415K
7WLFIEthereum
$43.0M
1 wallet
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
24h-$435K
7d-$396K
8MORPHOEthereum
$18.0M
5 wallets
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
24h-$102K
7d-$209K
9USTBEthereum
$16.9M
6 wallets
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
24h-$468
7d-$676K
10STETHEthereum
$14.7M
10 wallets
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
24h-$43K
7d+$246K
Small-cap watch
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin |
$1.2M
11 wallets
|
-$2K | -$6K | building | $382.2M |
| 2 |
USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin |
$602.8K
7 wallets
|
+$3K | +$8K | building | $86.9M |
| 3 |
DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products |
$172.6K
10 wallets
|
-$509 | -$462 | building | $122.1M |
| 4 |
PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token |
$148.8K
12 wallets
|
+$455 | +$146 | building | $565.8M |
| 5 |
PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps |
$139.1K
2 wallets
|
-$424 | -$113K | building | $8.2M |
1PENGUSolana
$1.2M
11 wallets
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
24h-$2K
7d-$6K
2USELESSSolana
$602.8K
7 wallets
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
24h+$3K
7d+$8K
3DRVEthereum
$172.6K
10 wallets
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
24h-$509
7d-$462
4PUMPSolana
$148.8K
12 wallets
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
24h+$455
7d+$146
5PEARArbitrum
$139.1K
2 wallets
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
24h-$424
7d-$113K
05Technical Dashboard
Mixed| Asset | Last | Trendi | Supporti | Resistancei | RSIi | RSI Status | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | Bullish | 7,433.12 | 7,579.93 | 60 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| IXIC Nasdaq Comp. | 26,281.61 | Bullish | 26,048.49 | 26,301.54 | 55 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| DXY Dollar Index | 113.76 | USD ↑ | 112.06 | 114.35 | 59 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| VIX Volatility | 15.03 | Suppressed | 14.96 | 17.36 | 42 | Neutral | Hedgeconf 70% |
| US10Y US 10Y Yield | 4.54% | Yields ↑ | 4.48% | 4.56% | 57 | Neutral | Sell bondsconf 75% |
| CL WTI Crude | $69.60 | Bearish | $69.60 | $75.22 | 27 | Oversold | Holdconf 50% |
| XAU Gold | $4,114 | Bearish | $4,082 | $4,319 | 43 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| BTC Bitcoin | $63,968 | Bearish | $63,734 | $65,368 | 53 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| ETH Ethereum | $1,805 | Sideways | $1,773 | $2,233 | 58 | Neutral | Holdconf 50% |
06Key Events
Next 7 daysThe week ahead is dense with market-moving catalysts: four major US banks (JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo) and Morgan Stanley report Monday and Tuesday, followed by Netflix (NFLX), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) on Wednesday. On the macro side, Core CPI for June lands Monday, PPI follows Tuesday, and the week closes with Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday - 11 high-impact US data releases in total.
U.S. Macro Releases
-
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.20 % High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.50 % High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI YoY (Jun)prev 4.20 % High -
Fri
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Housing Starts (Jun)Est: 1.33 M · prev 1.18 M High -
Fri
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)Est: 51 · prev 49.50 High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI (Jun)Est: 335.1 % · prev 335.1 % Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI s.a (Jun)Est: 334 · prev 334.0 Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI YoY (Jun)Est: 2.90 % · prev 2.90 % Medium -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PPI MoM (Jun)Est: 0.40 % · prev 0.40 % Medium -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/11)Est: 218 K · prev 215 K Medium -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.80 % Medium -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.70 % Medium -
Fri
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Housing Starts MoM (Jun)Est: 0 % · prev -15.40 % Medium -
Fri
13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST Industrial Production MoM (Jun)Est: 0.20 % · prev 0.10 % Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI (Jun)prev 336.1 % Low -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PPI YoY (Jun)Est: 4.90 % · prev 4.90 % Low -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY (Jun)Est: 5 % · prev 5.10 % Low -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.80 % Low -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales YoY (Jun)Est: 6.70 % · prev 6.90 % Low -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.50 % Low -
Fri
13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST Industrial Production YoY (Jun)Est: 1.50 % · prev 1.70 % Low
1 / 4
Earnings
- Tue · After close JPM — JPMorgan ChaseEPS est $5.59 (+13% YoY) · Rev est $51.1B (+14% YoY) High
- Tue · After close BAC — Bank of AmericaEPS est $1.13 (+27% YoY) · Rev est $30.8B (+16% YoY) High
- Tue · After close GS — Goldman SachsEPS est $14.47 (+33% YoY) · Rev est $16.2B (+11% YoY) High
- Tue · After close WFC — Wells FargoEPS est $1.73 (+12% YoY) · Rev est $21.9B (+5% YoY) High
- Wed · After close MS — Morgan StanleyEPS est $2.89 (+36% YoY) · Rev est $19.7B (+26% YoY) High
- Wed · After close JNJ — Johnson & JohnsonEPS est $2.85 (+3% YoY) · Rev est $25.0B (+5% YoY) High
- Thu · After close TSM — Taiwan Semi (TSMC)EPS est $3.80 (+52% YoY) · Rev est $39.9B (+26% YoY) High
- Thu · After close NFLX — NetflixEPS est $0.79 (+10% YoY) · Rev est $12.6B (+14% YoY) High
- Thu · After close UNH — UnitedHealthEPS est $4.84 (+19% YoY) · Rev est $110.8B (−1% YoY) High
1 / 2
08Daily Alpha
Hold. Geopolitical shock meets late-cycle valuations; no clear entry edge today
This weekend's dominant signal is geopolitical, not macro. Reports of Iran's Revolutionary Guards striking a Jordan air base and Qatar issuing a high-level security alert are driving a sharply bearish news sentiment score (-24, per Binance Square), even as Friday's equity tape looked constructive on the surface: Meta rose 5.97% and Nvidia gained 4.03%, lifting Technology to +1.50% on the day. But that same session showed a 3.2 percentage-point sector spread, with Healthcare falling 1.67% and Industrials off 1.61% - a classic late-cycle rotation tell. Crypto Fear and Greed sits at 26 (Fear), Bitcoin is just 1.75% above its 200-week moving average, and ETF inflows are modest rather than surging. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.31% makes bonds structurally attractive, but the US 30-year at 5.05% and a late-cycle framework with CAPE near double its long-run mean argue against chasing equities here. Wait for geopolitical clarity before adding.
24h Bias
Hold; geopolitical risk unresolved
Equities
Hold; avoid chasing Friday's tech surge
Bonds
Add small at 30Y 5.05%; real yield attractive
Commodities
Hold gold; wait for geopolitical clarity
Crypto
Add small Bitcoin near 200WMA on Fear score
Vol hedge
Hold VIX protection; news risk elevated