Daily Market Report
Dollar Slips, Tech Surges, Crypto Stays Cautious
01Daily Summary
A softer dollar (down 0.51%) and easing geopolitical tensions lifted equities, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.42% to 7,575 and Meta rising 5.97%. Volatility retreated: the VIX fell to 15.03 and the MOVE bond-volatility index dropped 4.6% to 65.4. Yet crypto sat out the rally - Bitcoin held near $64,087 with a Fear and Greed score of just 26 (Fear), and gold slipped 0.65%. The divergence between buoyant equities and cautious crypto keeps the overall read mixed.
S&P 500+0.42%NASDAQ+0.29%US10Y−2 bpWTI−0.19%Gold−0.65%BTC−0.06%ETH−0.07%DXY−0.51%VIX−5.11%
- Driver:Easing geopolitical tensions and a weaker dollar (down 0.51%) catalysed equity gains, led by Meta (+5.97%) and Nvidia (+4.03%).
- Cross-asset:Equities firm, VIX down to 15.03; crypto flat to slightly negative; gold off 0.65%; WTI crude near $69.60; DXY softer.
- Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 5.05%; 2s10s spread at 38 bp; TIPS real yield 2.31%; 10Y breakeven 2.24%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) 270 bp, IG OAS 76 bp, both unchanged; IPOR USDC rate 3.59%.
- Sentiment:Equity Fear and Greed at 49.5 (Neutral); crypto Fear and Greed at 26 (Fear); Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.34; funding rates near zero; news sentiment bullish-biased.
- Forward bias:No high-impact US releases on deck in the next 48 hours; regime flips Risk-On if crypto Fear and Greed recovers above 40 and credit spreads hold.
02Macro Snapshot
Stagflation risk rising| Benchmark Rates | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Ratei | 3.50 – 3.75 % | unchanged | 17 Jun 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | Fed funds at 3.50 to 3.75 percent keeps policy restrictive for risk assets. |
| ECB Ratei | 2.25 % | +25 bp | 11 Jun 2026 | 23 Jul 2026 | ECB rate at 2.25 percent after June hike pressures European risk assets. |
| BoJ Ratei | 1.00 % | +25 bp | 16 Jun 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 | BoJ rate at 1.00 percent maintains attractive JPY carry trade for risk assets. |
| SOFRi | 3.53 % | −5 bp | daily | tomorrow | SOFR at 3.53 percent after a 5 bp drop eases short end funding. |
| IPOR USDCi | 3.59 % | +6 bp | real-time | — | USDC IPOR at 3.59 percent above SOFR signals strong onchain USD leverage demand. |
| IPOR WETHi | 1.69 % | −1 bp | real-time | — | WETH IPOR at 1.69 percent shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand. |
| ETH Ratei | 2.21 % | — | real-time | — | ETH staking yield at 2.21 percent offers native return on holding staked ETH. |
| US Inflation | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TruCPI-US (headline)i | 1.84 % | +0.01 pp | daily | tomorrow | Truflation CPI at 1.84 percent runs cooler than official prints and is falling. |
| CPI YoY (headline)i | 4.2 % | +0.4 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Headline CPI at 4.2 percent keeps Fed cautious on further rate cuts. |
| CPI YoY (core)i | 2.9 % | +0.1 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Core CPI at 2.9 percent shows persistent underlying inflation pressure. |
| PCE YoY (headline)i | 4.1 % | +0.3 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Headline PCE at 4.1 percent runs above target and delays Fed easing. |
| PCE YoY (core)i | 3.4 % | +0.1 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Core PCE at 3.4 percent remains sticky well above the 2 percent target. |
| PPI YoY (headline)i | 6.4 % | +0.8 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | PPI at 6.4 percent signals upstream inflation that may feed into CPI later. |
| PPI YoY (core)i | 4.9 % | +0.0 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | Core PPI at 4.9 percent indicates persistent producer price pressures upstream. |
| Euro Area Inflationi | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Area | 3.1 % | +0.1 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Euro area HICP at 3.1 percent stays above ECB 2 percent target. |
| Romania | 9.7 % | +0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Romania HICP at 9.7 percent reflects fiscal tightening and tax hikes. |
| Bulgaria | 6.3 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Bulgaria HICP at 6.3 percent aligns with euro convergence criteria post 2026 entry. |
| Poland | 3.3 % | −0.0 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Poland HICP at 3.3 percent keeps central bank on hold versus 2 percent target. |
| Germany | 2.7 % | −0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Germany HICP at 2.7 percent anchors euro area inflation near ECB target. |
| France | 2.8 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | France HICP at 2.8 percent sits close to ECB 2 percent target. |
| Labor | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) | 158.98 M jobs | +57 k | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Nonfarm payrolls rose only 57 thousand signaling labor market cooling. |
| Unemployment Ratei | 4.2 % | −0.1 pp | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Unemployment at 4.2 percent points to rising slack and possible Fed cuts. |
| Activity | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Productioni (YoY) | +1.7 % | +0.3 pp | 15 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Industrial production rose 1 |
| Retail Salesi (m/m) | +1.0 % | +0.7 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 16 Jul 2026 | Retail sales rose 1.0 percent month on month showing solid consumer demand. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMIi | 53.3 | +0.6 | June 2026 | — | |
| ISM Services PMIi | 54.0 | +0.4 | June 2026 | — |
| Yield Curve | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y2Y Spreadi | 38 bp | — | daily | tomorrow | Positive curve. Recession odds receding. |
| Sentiment | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) | 50 (Neutral) | +2 | daily | tomorrow | |
| Crypto Fear & Greedi | 26 (Fear) | +3 | daily | tomorrow | |
| News Sentimenti | +24 (Greed) | −6 | every 30 min | — |
03News Sentiment
Greed
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed)
range
−44 to +54
·
current
+24
(Greed)
·
−6
24h
7 days ago
today
What's driving today's news sentiment
+31
Bullish
medium-term
Robinhood to soon deploy AI agents supporting crypto traders
Robinhood has created over 70,000 agentic trading accounts since its late May beta, signaling growth in AI-enabled crypto trading tools and user adoption.
+14
Neutral
SK Hynix Raises $26.5B in Largest US IPO by Foreign Company, Reflecting AI Memory Boom
nasdaq.com
0
Neutral
Daily crypto market trends and updates impacting key sectors on July 11, 2026
cointelegraph.com
04.1Tech Equitiesi
MixedTech is bifurcated today: Meta Platforms and Nvidia are carrying the cohort, up 5.97% and 4.03% respectively, while Amazon, Alphabet, and Intel drag in the opposite direction. Five of nine names are positive, but the dispersion is wide enough that the cohort's net read is mixed rather than cleanly risk-on.
AAPLApple
$315.32−0.28%
1D Range $312.17 — $316.91
1M Range $275.15 — $316.22
P/E TTMi37.8
P/E Fwdi32.7
50-DMAi+6.2%
200-DMAi+15.9%
RSI(14)i63
YTDi+16.3%
% from ATHi−0.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.82
MSFTMicrosoft
$385.10+0.19%
1D Range $381.50 — $391.88
1M Range $352.83 — $399.76
P/E TTMi22.8
P/E Fwdi19.8
50-DMAi−4.8%
200-DMAi−13.1%
RSI(14)i48
YTDi−18.6%
% from ATHi−30.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.57
GOOGLAlphabet
$357.18−0.48%
1D Range $352.75 — $357.82
1M Range $337.39 — $373.25
P/E TTMi27.0
P/E Fwdi24.3
50-DMAi−4.1%
200-DMAi+12.2%
RSI(14)i47
YTDi+13.3%
% from ATHi−12.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.40
AMZNAmazon
$245.34−0.69%
1D Range $244.41 — $251.03
1M Range $227.01 — $247.04
P/E TTMi29.0
P/E Fwdi24.3
50-DMAi−3.5%
200-DMAi+5.2%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi+8.3%
% from ATHi−11.9%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.57
NVDANVIDIA
$210.96+4.03%
1D Range $201.92 — $211.00
1M Range $192.53 — $212.45
P/E TTMi32.1
P/E Fwdi23.5
50-DMAi+0.8%
200-DMAi+10.1%
RSI(14)i57
YTDi+11.7%
% from ATHi−10.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.23
METAMeta Platforms
$669.21+5.97%
1D Range $658.01 — $677.85
1M Range $542.87 — $669.21
P/E TTMi24.0
P/E Fwdi19.1
50-DMAi+11.4%
200-DMAi+4.0%
RSI(14)i66
YTDi+2.9%
% from ATHi−16.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.08
TSLATesla
$407.76+0.30%
1D Range $402.81 — $413.16
1M Range $375.12 — $425.30
P/E TTMi340.2
P/E Fwdi167.7
50-DMAi−0.2%
200-DMAi−2.5%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi−6.9%
% from ATHi−18.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.88
INTCIntel
$109.84−2.40%
1D Range $107.45 — $110.85
1M Range $107.04 — $140.94
P/E TTMin/a
P/E Fwdi69.8
50-DMAi−5.7%
200-DMAi+77.0%
RSI(14)i43
YTDi+178.9%
% from ATHi−22.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.46
AMDAMD
$557.89+2.04%
1D Range $540.05 — $560.25
1M Range $452.40 — $580.91
P/E TTMi181.7
P/E Fwdi42.0
50-DMAi+16.9%
200-DMAi+95.3%
RSI(14)i58
YTDi+149.6%
% from ATHi−4.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.49
04.2Recent IPOs
SPCXSpaceX
IPO'd 12 Jun 2026 $145.30−4.51%
1D Range $145.20 — $150.57
1M Range $145.30 — $201.80
Mkt Capi$1.90T
IPO-day Vali$2.10T
IPO-to-Datei−9.7%
Floati6.1B · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a
P/E FwdiFY28E · 296x
RSI(14)i44% from ATHi−35.6%
04.3Indices
BullishiUS large caps are modestly higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.42% while the Russell 2000 slips 0.49%, a clear size divergence. Notably, the cap-weighted S&P 500 YTD gap versus the equal-weight RSP has nearly closed to just -0.66 percentage points, signaling that breadth is unusually broad and the average S&P 500 name is keeping pace with - or slightly outrunning - the index heavyweights. Volatility is retreating across the board: VIX is down 5.11% to 15.03 and MOVE falls 4.61% to 65.4, suggesting the rates and equity vol complex is in a relief mode. World markets are constructive, with the Nikkei leading at +1.20% and FTSE, Hang Seng, and URTH all adding modest gains.
US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,575.39+0.42%
1D Range 7,508.16 — 7,579.93
1M Range 7,267.00 — 7,575.39
50-DMAi+2.0%
200-DMAi+8.8%
RSI(14)i60
YTDi+10.5%
% from ATHi−0.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.81
IXICNasdaq Comp.
26,281.61+0.29%
1D Range 26,009.49 — 26,301.54
1M Range 25,169.50 — 26,683.94
50-DMAi+1.0%
200-DMAi+10.5%
RSI(14)i55
YTDi+13.1%
% from ATHi−3.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.66
DJIDow Jones Ind.
52,637.01+0.29%
1D Range 52,266.81 — 52,709.75
1M Range 49,918.79 — 53,055.91
50-DMAi+3.6%
200-DMAi+8.4%
RSI(14)i61
YTDi+8.8%
% from ATHi−0.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.62
RUTRussell 2000
2,977.81−0.49%
1D Range 2,963.16 — 2,998.18
1M Range 2,835.46 — 3,024.37
50-DMAi+2.7%
200-DMAi+13.0%
RSI(14)i54
YTDi+18.7%
% from ATHi−2.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.70
SOXXSemiconductors
581.34−0.06%
1D Range 566.67 — 585.79
1M Range 541.51 — 655.01
50-DMAi+4.7%
200-DMAi+52.0%
RSI(14)i50
YTDi+85.3%
% from ATHi−11.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.44
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
214.30+0.37%
1D Range 213.06 — 214.59
1M Range 206.53 — 215.00
50-DMAi+3.1%
200-DMAi+8.4%
RSI(14)i60
YTDi+11.1%
vs SPX YTDi+0.7pp
Cap-weight sharei-6%
VIXiVolatility Idx
15.03−5.11%
1D Range 14.96 — 16.16
1M Range 15.03 — 22.22
50-DMAi−13.8%
200-DMAi−19.5%
RSI(14)i42
YTDi+3.6%
MOVEiMOVE Index
65.40−4.61%
5D Range 65.40 — 71.96
1M Range 65.39 — 77.03
50-DMAi−9.3%
200-DMAi−9.6%
RSI(14)i42
YTDi+4.9%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
113.76−0.51%
5D Range 113.76 — 114.35
1M Range 111.99 — 114.67
50-DMAi+1.5%
200-DMAi+1.9%
RSI(14)i59
YTDi+2.3%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,497.29+0.24%
1D Range 10,462.75 — 10,513.90
1M Range 10,363.27 — 10,679.03
50-DMAi+0.9%
200-DMAi+3.8%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi+5.5%
% from ATHi−4.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.48
N225Nikkei 225
68,557.73+1.20%
1D Range 68,271.91 — 69,374.86
1M Range 66,020.04 — 72,366.34
50-DMAi+4.0%
200-DMAi+23.6%
RSI(14)i52
YTDi+32.3%
% from ATHi−5.4%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.29
HSIHang Seng
24,175.12+0.60%
1D Range 24,064.62 — 24,499.63
1M Range 22,671.87 — 24,842.68
50-DMAi−3.1%
200-DMAi−6.5%
RSI(14)i52
YTDi−8.2%
% from ATHi−13.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.17
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
204.63+0.44%
1D Range 203.09 — 204.74
1M Range 197.36 — 204.63
50-DMAi+1.7%
200-DMAi+7.9%
RSI(14)i58
YTDi+9.7%
% from ATHi−0.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.61
EEMMSCI Emerging
66.90+0.18%
1D Range 66.19 — 67.02
1M Range 64.66 — 71.21
50-DMAi−0.1%
200-DMAi+12.6%
RSI(14)i49
YTDi+19.0%
% from ATHi−6.1%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.56
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
42.2Overvalued
+0.44% today
Long-run mean17.4
Median16.1
All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999)
% from ATHi−4.5%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
32.6Overvalued
+0.44% today
Long-run mean16.2
Median15.1
All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP
218.1Overvalued
Long-run mean86.1
Median72.1
All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025)
% from ATHi−4.6%
Sector Rotationi
Real Estate+1.55%
Tech+1.50%
Materials+0.84%
Utilities+0.72%
Staples+0.67%
Telecom+0.50%
Energy−0.06%
Discretionary−0.73%
Financials−0.93%
Industrials−1.61%
Healthcare−1.67%
04.4US Treasuries & Credit
BidThe front end is doing the heavy lifting today: the 2-year Treasury yield drops 5 basis points to 4.16% while the 10-year eases just 2 basis points to 4.54% and the 30-year gives back 1 basis point to 5.05%, steepening the 2s10s spread to +38 basis points. Real rates are essentially unchanged with the 10-year TIPS real yield holding at 2.31%, and the 10-year breakeven nudges up 1 basis point to 2.24%, keeping inflation expectations anchored. Credit spreads are flat on the day: HY OAS at 270 basis points and IG OAS at 76 basis points show no stress at the margin.
US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.16%−5 bp
5D Range 4.13 — 4.21
1M Range 4.05 — 4.24
5-day Δ−1 bp
YTD Δ+69 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.54%−2 bp
5D Range 4.48 — 4.56
1M Range 4.38 — 4.56
10–2 spread+38 bp
YTD Δ+35 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
5.05%−1 bp
5D Range 4.98 — 5.06
1M Range 4.86 — 5.06
5-day Δ+8 bp
YTD Δ+19 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.41T
+$19.2B (1d)
+7.7% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.34T
+11.1% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.41%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.41%
+0.10pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.7%
~$10.15T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.31%
0 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.24%
+1 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.70%
0 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.76%
0 bp
tight · late-cycle
04.5US Inflation · Daily
SteadyTruflation's daily year-over-year read sits at 1.84%, essentially unchanged over the past month (+0.01 percentage point) and trending steady. The 2.41 percentage point gap below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2% remains wide, with transport contributing the largest single driver at +0.61 percentage points to the headline.
1.84%
Daily Data By
Daily
+0.01 pp
1-mo
+0.01 pp
1-yr
+0.16 pp
About the number
Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.
Truflation data as of 2026-07-10
vs BLS CPI official 4.2% (May 2026, monthly · lagged)
−2.41 ppbelow official print
next BLS CPI: 14 Jul 2026
Index Components
12 basket categories · sorted by weight| Category | Inflation (YoY)i | Contributioni | Trend (1-mo)i |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Housing
23.1% of basket
|
+0.13% |
+0.03 pp
|
Heating +0.33 pp |
|
Transport
19.8% of basket
|
+3.10% |
+0.61 pp
|
Cooling −1.47 pp |
|
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
|
+1.80% |
+0.27 pp
|
Heating +1.99 pp |
|
Health
8.8% of basket
|
+0.73% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.13 pp |
|
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
|
+2.48% |
+0.17 pp
|
Cooling −1.59 pp |
|
Utilities
6.0% of basket
|
+2.95% |
+0.18 pp
|
Heating +0.40 pp |
|
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
|
+2.25% |
+0.12 pp
|
Cooling −0.12 pp |
|
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
|
+6.40% |
+0.24 pp
|
Heating +0.62 pp |
|
Other
3.4% of basket
|
+3.10% |
+0.10 pp
|
Heating +0.64 pp |
|
Communications
3.3% of basket
|
-0.11% |
0.00 pp
|
Heating +1.46 pp |
|
Education
2.3% of basket
|
+2.56% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.87 pp |
|
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
|
+2.75% |
+0.05 pp
|
Cooling −1.68 pp |
04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve
OfferedThe JGB curve is steepening at the long end: the 10-year yield ticks up 1 basis point to 2.87% while the 30-year holds at 4.01%, keeping the 2s10s spread wide at +142 basis points. The 2-year JGB at 1.44% sits well above the Bank of Japan's 1.00% policy rate, reflecting continued upward pressure on short-duration funding costs that underpin the yen carry trade calculus.
JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.44%+1 bp
5D Range 1.39 — 1.44
1M Range 1.38 — 1.44
5-day Δ+5 bp
YTD Δ+25 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.87%+1 bp
5D Range 2.77 — 2.87
1M Range 2.59 — 2.87
10–2 spread+142 bp
YTD Δ+76 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
4.01%+2 bp
5D Range 3.94 — 4.01
1M Range 3.71 — 4.01
5-day Δ+8 bp
YTD Δ+62 bp
04.7Commodities
BearishMetals are under modest pressure, with Gold (XAU) down 0.65% to $4,113.7 and Silver off 0.96% to $60.165, a mild risk-on tilt consistent with the equity session. Energy is mixed: Brent is up 1.28% while WTI edges down 0.19% and Natural Gas retreats 1.50%, leaving the energy complex without a clear directional signal.
CLWTI Crude
$69.60−0.19%
5D Range $69.60 — $71.87
1M Range $69.60 — $96.83
50-DMAi−25.2%
200-DMAi−7.5%
RSI(14)i27
YTDi+21.7%
COBrent
$69.56+1.28%
5D Range $68.53 — $70.46
1M Range $68.53 — $97.46
50-DMAi−27.3%
200-DMAi−14.4%
RSI(14)i28
YTDi+12.2%
NGNatural Gas
$3.29−1.50%
5D Range $3.29 — $3.34
1M Range $3.05 — $3.34
50-DMAi+9.2%
200-DMAi−11.6%
RSI(14)i57
YTDi+16.7%
XAUGold
$4,113.70−0.65%
5D Range $4,081.70 — $4,144.60
1M Range $4,008.80 — $4,381.40
50-DMAi−5.0%
200-DMAi−10.5%
RSI(14)i43
YTDi−6.2%
XAGSilver
$60.16−0.96%
5D Range $59.24 — $61.20
1M Range $58.09 — $70.77
50-DMAi−14.8%
200-DMAi−13.5%
RSI(14)i40
YTDi−17.4%
04.8Crypto Assets
BearishBitcoin and Ethereum are essentially flat on the day, down 0.06% and 0.07% respectively to $64,087.3 and $1,794.35, while Solana gives back 0.56% to $77.62. Total crypto market cap is up a marginal 0.19% and global DeFi TVL rises 2.26%, suggesting on-chain activity is outpacing spot price action. Sentiment remains firmly in Fear territory at a reading of 26, and BTC dominance holds at 56.3%. Spot ETF flows are a constructive offset: BTC pulled in $90M and ETH $18M on the latest daily read, with ETH perp funding at 4.89% APR pointing to some leveraged long interest in that market.
BTCBitcoin
$64,087.30−0.06%
1D Range $63,964.97 — $64,198.29
1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,276.80
50-DMAi−2.4%
200-DMAi−13.7%
200-WMAi($62,870.23) +1.9%
RSI(14)i54
% from ATHi−49.1%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.62
ETHEthereum
$1,794.35−0.07%
1D Range $1,788.29 — $1,798.33
1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,798.45
50-DMAi+0.8%
200-DMAi−19.9%
200-WMAi($2,472.60) −27.4%
RSI(14)i58
% from ATHi−63.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.50
SOLSolana
$77.62−0.56%
1D Range $77.53 — $78.06
1M Range $66.79 — $82.28
50-DMAi+3.7%
200-DMAi−16.0%
200-WMAi($107.34) −27.7%
RSI(14)i54
% from ATHi−73.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.67
ENAEthena
$0.0818+3.62%
1D Range $0.0778 — $0.0826
1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0955
50-DMAi−71.8%
200-DMAi−72.7%
RSI(14)i51
% from ATHi−94.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.92
HYPEHyperliquid
$66.55−1.41%
1D Range $66.51 — $67.60
1M Range $59.27 — $73.57
50-DMAi+2.9%
200-DMAi+59.6%
RSI(14)i51
% from ATHi−11.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.91
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001436−5.75%
1D Range $0.001435 — $0.001528
1M Range $0.001197 — $0.001632
50-DMAi−4.3%
200-DMAi−24.4%
RSI(14)i46
% from ATHi−83.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.39
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.28T
−0.06%
56.3% of total
ETH Mcap
$216.6B
−0.07%
9.5% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$310.9B
+0.06%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.28T
+0.19%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$59.8B
−8.24%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$6.5B
−3.08%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$170.3B
−14.42%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$3.0B
−11.87%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$74.2B
+2.26%
all chains
Lending TVL
$39.1B
+2.38%
money markets
DEX TVL
$11.6B
+0.18%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.21%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+0.50% APR
longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+4.89% APR
longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.34
large traders long
1.34× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
26
Fear
Δ +3 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.59%
+0.06 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.81%
USDTi
2.74%
−0.79 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 2.91%
DAIi
3.53%
+0.00 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.53%
WETHi
1.69%
−0.01 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.70%
04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows
AccumulatingCorporate and institutional treasury holdings are substantial across the three tracked assets: BTC at 1,279,883 coins (6.09% of supply), ETH at 7,751,768 coins (6.42% of supply), and SOL at 19,021,279 coins (3.27% of supply). Daily spot ETF flows are positive for BTC (+$90M) and ETH (+$18M), and the 7-day cumulative picture reinforces that trend with BTC at +$197M and ETH at +$84M, while SOL ETF flows remain negligible.
| Asset | Total Held | USD Value | % of Supply | Top Public Holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
|
1.28 M BTC | $82.0 B | 6.09% | Strategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k |
|
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
|
7.75 M ETH | $13.9 B | 6.42% | BitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k |
|
◎
Solana
SOL
|
19.02 M SOL | $1.5 B | 3.27% | Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M |
Public-company treasuries
₿BitcoinBTC
$82.0 B
1.28 M BTC
% of supply6.09%
Top public holdersStrategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
ΞEthereumETH
$13.9 B
7.75 M ETH
% of supply6.42%
Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎SolanaSOL
$1.5 B
19.02 M SOL
% of supply3.27%
Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC
13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…
Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM)
1.
IBIT
BlackRock
$46.3 B
2.
FBTC
Fidelity
$10.2 B
3.
GBTC
Grayscale
$8.6 B
4.
BTC
Grayscale Mini
$3.6 B
5.
ARKB
ARK 21Shares
$2.4 B
+ 8 more
Flow data as of 10 Jul 2026
AUM
$76.2 B
24h Flow+$90 M
7-day Flow+$197 M
YTD Flowi−$5.26 B
ETH
10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…
Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM)
1.
ETHA
BlackRock
$4.8 B
2.
ETH
Grayscale Mini
$1.5 B
3.
ETHE
Grayscale
$1.3 B
4.
FETH
Fidelity
$750.9 M
5.
ETHB
BlackRock
$502.0 M
+ 5 more
Flow data as of 10 Jul 2026
AUM
$9.2 B
24h Flow+$18 M
7-day Flow+$84 M
YTD Flowi−$1.35 B
SOL
6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…
Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM)
1.
BSOL
Bitwise
$636.5 M
2.
GSOL
Grayscale
$101.9 M
3.
VSOL
VanEck
$14.9 M
4.
SOEZ
Franklin
$8.8 M
5.
TSOL
VanEck
$3.0 M
+ 1 more
Flow data as of 10 Jul 2026
AUM
$765.1 M
24h Flow+$0 M
7-day Flow+$2 M
YTD Flowi−$27 M
04.10Smart Money Positioning
TrimmingThe biggest trim in the last 24 hours is Litentry / Heima (LIT), down $2.08M to $162.1M held across 4 wallets. The biggest add is Superstate USTB (USTB), a tokenized short-term US Treasury fund, which gained $631K to $16.9M across 6 wallets. Net 24-hour positioning change across the book is -$2.70M, a modest overall reduction.
Total tracked$844.2M
Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist
Net change 24h-$2.70M
Data by
Paid per call
x402by
Largest holdings
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure) |
$178.3M
3 wallets
|
+$164K | -$1.63M | building | $4.14B |
| 2 |
LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation |
$162.1M
4 wallets
|
-$2.08M | -$103K | building | $664.7M |
| 3 |
UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX) |
$141.8M
26 wallets
|
-$399K | +$117K | building | $2.16B |
| 4 |
ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets) |
$97.1M
13 wallets
|
-$228K | -$179K | building | $1.60B |
| 5 |
BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange |
$94.3M
4 wallets
|
-$166K | -$15K | building | $1.16B |
| 6 |
WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era |
$74.7M
21 wallets
|
-$372K | -$654K | building | $1.36B |
| 7 |
WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol |
$43.5M
1 wallet
|
-$94K | -$52K | building | $1.85B |
| 8 |
MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer |
$18.5M
5 wallets
|
-$71K | -$99K | building | $1.37B |
| 9 |
USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund |
$16.9M
6 wallets
|
+$631K | -$672K | building | $785.5M |
| 10 |
STETHEthereum Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt |
$14.6M
10 wallets
|
-$89K | +$254K | building | $16.49B |
1AETHWETHEthereum
$178.3M
3 wallets
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
24h+$164K
7d-$1.63M
2LITEthereum
$162.1M
4 wallets
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
24h-$2.08M
7d-$103K
3UNIEthereum
$141.8M
26 wallets
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
24h-$399K
7d+$117K
4ONDOEthereum
$97.1M
13 wallets
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
24h-$228K
7d-$179K
5BGBEthereum
$94.3M
4 wallets
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
24h-$166K
7d-$15K
6WLDEthereum
$74.7M
21 wallets
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
24h-$372K
7d-$654K
7WLFIEthereum
$43.5M
1 wallet
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
24h-$94K
7d-$52K
8MORPHOEthereum
$18.5M
5 wallets
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
24h-$71K
7d-$99K
9USTBEthereum
$16.9M
6 wallets
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
24h+$631K
7d-$672K
10STETHEthereum
$14.6M
10 wallets
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
24h-$89K
7d+$254K
Small-cap watch
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin |
$1.3M
11 wallets
|
-$7K | -$2K | building | $388.9M |
| 2 |
USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin |
$618.1K
7 wallets
|
-$7K | +$8K | building | $89.0M |
| 3 |
DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products |
$166.9K
10 wallets
|
-$12 | -$487 | building | $118.0M |
| 4 |
PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token |
$151.6K
12 wallets
|
-$340 | +$952 | building | $579.3M |
| 5 |
PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps |
$138.2K
2 wallets
|
+$15 | -$112K | building | $8.2M |
1PENGUSolana
$1.3M
11 wallets
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
24h-$7K
7d-$2K
2USELESSSolana
$618.1K
7 wallets
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
24h-$7K
7d+$8K
3DRVEthereum
$166.9K
10 wallets
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
24h-$12
7d-$487
4PUMPSolana
$151.6K
12 wallets
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
24h-$340
7d+$952
5PEARArbitrum
$138.2K
2 wallets
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
24h+$15
7d-$112K
05Technical Dashboard
Mixed| Asset | Last | Trendi | Supporti | Resistancei | RSIi | RSI Status | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | Bullish | 7,424.39 | 7,579.93 | 60 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| IXIC Nasdaq Comp. | 26,281.61 | Bullish | 26,016.13 | 26,301.54 | 55 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| DXY Dollar Index | 113.76 | USD ↑ | 112.06 | 114.35 | 59 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| VIX Volatility | 15.03 | Suppressed | 14.96 | 17.44 | 42 | Neutral | Hedgeconf 70% |
| US10Y US 10Y Yield | 4.54% | Yields ↑ | 4.48% | 4.56% | 57 | Neutral | Sell bondsconf 75% |
| CL WTI Crude | $69.60 | Bearish | $69.60 | $75.22 | 27 | Oversold | Holdconf 50% |
| XAU Gold | $4,114 | Bearish | $4,082 | $4,330 | 43 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| BTC Bitcoin | $64,087 | Bearish | $63,965 | $65,636 | 54 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| ETH Ethereum | $1,794 | Sideways | $1,780 | $2,239 | 58 | Neutral | Holdconf 50% |
06Key Events
Next 7 daysTwelve high-impact US macro releases are on deck this week, headlined by June Producer Price Index on July 15, June Retail Sales on July 16, and the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment alongside June Housing Starts and Building Permits on July 17. Nine mega-cap earnings reports are also in the queue, with Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) all reporting Monday July 14, followed by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Morgan Stanley (MS) on July 15, and Netflix (NFLX), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) on July 16.
U.S. Macro Releases
-
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.50 % High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI YoY (Jun)prev 4.20 % High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.20 % High -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.90 % High -
Fri
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Housing Starts (Jun)Est: 1.33 M · prev 1.18 M High -
Fri
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)Est: 51 · prev 49.50 High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI YoY (Jun)Est: 2.90 % · prev 2.90 % Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI s.a (Jun)Est: 334 · prev 334.0 Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI (Jun)Est: 335.1 % · prev 335.1 % Medium -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PPI MoM (Jun)Est: 0.40 % · prev 0.40 % Medium -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.80 % Medium -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/11)Est: 218 K · prev 215 K Medium -
Fri
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Housing Starts MoM (Jun)Est: 0 % · prev -15.40 % Medium -
Fri
13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST Industrial Production MoM (Jun)Est: 0.20 % · prev 0.10 % Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI (Jun)prev 336.1 % Low -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PPI YoY (Jun)Est: 4.90 % · prev 4.90 % Low -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.80 % Low -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY (Jun)Est: 5 % · prev 5.10 % Low -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.50 % Low -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales YoY (Jun)Est: 6.70 % · prev 6.90 % Low -
Fri
13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST Industrial Production YoY (Jun)Est: 1.50 % · prev 1.70 % Low
1 / 4
Earnings
- Tue · After close JPM — JPMorgan ChaseEPS est $5.52 (+11% YoY) · Rev est $51.1B (+14% YoY) High
- Tue · After close BAC — Bank of AmericaEPS est $1.13 (+27% YoY) · Rev est $30.8B (+16% YoY) High
- Tue · After close GS — Goldman SachsEPS est $14.47 (+33% YoY) · Rev est $16.2B (+11% YoY) High
- Tue · After close WFC — Wells FargoEPS est $1.73 (+12% YoY) · Rev est $21.9B (+5% YoY) High
- Wed · After close MS — Morgan StanleyEPS est $2.89 (+36% YoY) · Rev est $19.7B (+26% YoY) High
- Wed · After close JNJ — Johnson & JohnsonEPS est $2.85 (+3% YoY) · Rev est $25.0B (+5% YoY) High
- Thu · After close TSM — Taiwan Semi (TSMC)EPS est $3.80 (+52% YoY) · Rev est $40.0B (+26% YoY) High
- Thu · After close NFLX — NetflixEPS est $0.79 (+10% YoY) · Rev est $12.6B (+14% YoY) High
- Thu · After close UNH — UnitedHealthEPS est $4.84 (+19% YoY) · Rev est $110.8B (−1% YoY) High
1 / 2
08Daily Alpha
Wait. Late-cycle, overvalued equities, and sector dispersion argue against chasing today
Today's tape delivered a narrow rally: Meta gained nearly 6% and Nvidia added 4%, but the best-to-worst sector spread tells a different story. Real Estate led at +1.55% while Healthcare fell 1.67% - a 3.2 percentage point gap that is a textbook late-cycle rotation tell, not broad-based strength. The S&P 500 sits at 7,575 with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 32.6 against a long-run mean of 16.23; that is not a market priced for error. The cycle framework reads Late-cycle across eight of nine indicators. Credit is the lone cold signal, with high-yield option-adjusted spreads at 270 basis points - tight enough to offer no cushion if sentiment turns. TIPS real yields at 2.31% mean cash and short duration remain genuinely competitive. Crypto Fear and Greed sits at 26 (Fear), which is constructive for Bitcoin specifically, but Bitcoin at 64,087 is only 1.9% above its 200-week moving average - not a screaming asymmetric entry. Hold cash, wait for a pullback.
24h Bias
Cautious; narrow rally, rotation warning
Equities
Trim Mag-7 strength into late-cycle
Bonds
Add US 30Y at 5.05%; real yield compelling
Commodities
Hold gold; avoid chasing silver here
Crypto
Add small Bitcoin near 200-WMA support
Vol hedge
Hold VIX puts; 15.03 is complacent territory