Equities Rally While Crypto Fear Persists
01Daily Summary
The dollar slipped 0.51% today, lifting equities broadly as the S&P 500 gained 0.81% to 7,544 and volatility eased, with the VIX falling 6.3% to 15.84. Advanced Micro Devices surged 5.67% and Meta Platforms rose 4.70%, driving the move. Yet the cross-asset picture is fractured: Bitcoin sits at $63,952 with the crypto Fear and Greed index at 23 (Extreme Fear), ETF outflows hit $95.3 million for Bitcoin and $52.2 million for Ethereum today, and headline CPI at 4.25% keeps the Fed's path uncertain.
- Driver:Dollar weakness (DXY down 0.51%) and easing bond volatility (MOVE index -4.6%) fueled the equity advance today.
- Cross-asset:Equities firm, crypto modestly positive but deeply fearful; gold slipped 0.37%, WTI crude near flat at $69.60, bonds mixed.
- Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 5.06%; 2s10s spread 35 basis points; 10-year real yield 2.31%; 10-year breakeven eased 2 bp to 2.23%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) tightened 3 bp to 270 bp; IPOR stablecoin rates near 3.6%.
- Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 23 (Extreme Fear) contradicts equity Neutral (47.3); Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.35; funding rates near zero; news sentiment reads Bullish Bias.
- Forward bias:Canada unemployment (CA, 12:30 UTC) is the only scheduled release; regime flips Risk-On if crypto Fear and Greed recovers above 40 and Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive.
02Macro Snapshot
Stagflation risk rising| Benchmark Rates | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Ratei | 3.50 – 3.75 % | unchanged | 17 Jun 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | Fed funds at 3.50-3.75% keeps borrowing costs elevated for risk assets. |
| ECB Ratei | 2.25 % | +25 bp | 11 Jun 2026 | 23 Jul 2026 | ECB hike to 2.25% pressures European risk assets and lifts EUR rates. |
| BoJ Ratei | 1.00 % | +25 bp | 16 Jun 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 | Higher BoJ rate at 1% adds unwind pressure on JPY carry trade. |
| SOFRi | 3.58 % | −4 bp | daily | tomorrow | Falling SOFR at 3.58% signals looser USD funding conditions for risk assets. |
| IPOR USDCi | 3.63 % | +5 bp | real-time | — | USDC IPOR at 3.63% above SOFR shows strong onchain USD leverage demand. |
| IPOR WETHi | 1.72 % | −1 bp | real-time | — | WETH IPOR at 1.72% indicates cooling onchain ETH leverage demand. |
| ETH Ratei | 2.23 % | — | real-time | — | ETH staking yield at 2.23% reflects steady validator demand and fee revenue. |
| US Inflation | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TruCPI-US (headline)i | 1.82 % | -0.07 pp | daily | tomorrow | Truflation CPI at 1.82% runs cooler than official prints and falling. |
| CPI YoY (headline)i | 4.2 % | +0.4 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Headline CPI at 4.2% keeps Fed cautious on further rate cuts. |
| CPI YoY (core)i | 2.9 % | +0.1 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Core CPI at 2.9% shows persistent inflation stickiness above target. |
| PCE YoY (headline)i | 4.1 % | +0.3 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Headline PCE at 4.1% remains well above Fed's 2% target. |
| PCE YoY (core)i | 3.4 % | +0.1 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Core PCE at 3.4% stays sticky far above the 2% target. |
| PPI YoY (headline)i | 6.4 % | +0.8 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | PPI at 6.4% signals upstream inflation accelerating ahead of CPI. |
| PPI YoY (core)i | 4.9 % | +0.0 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | Core PPI at 4.9% reveals persistent upstream price pressures. |
| Euro Area Inflationi | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Area | 3.1 % | +0.1 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Euro-area HICP at 3.1% keeps ECB on restrictive policy path. |
| Romania | 9.7 % | +0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Romania's HICP at 9.7% remains elevated amid fiscal tightening. |
| Bulgaria | 6.3 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Bulgaria's HICP at 6.3% reflects ongoing euro convergence challenges. |
| Poland | 3.3 % | −0.0 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Poland's HICP at 3.3% leaves room for central bank easing. |
| Germany | 2.7 % | −0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Germany's HICP at 2.7% anchors euro-area inflation near target. |
| France | 2.8 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | France's HICP at 2.8% sits above ECB target but among cooler prints. |
| Labor | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) | 158.98 M jobs | +57 k | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | NFP gain of 57k signals cooling labor market momentum. |
| Unemployment Ratei | 4.2 % | −0.1 pp | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Unemployment at 4.2% indicates rising slack in labor market. |
| Activity | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Productioni (YoY) | +1.7 % | +0.3 pp | 15 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Industrial production up 1.7% YoY shows modest manufacturing strength. |
| Retail Salesi (m/m) | +1.0 % | +0.7 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 16 Jul 2026 | Retail sales up 1.0% m/m point to resilient consumer demand. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMIi | 53.3 | +0.6 | June 2026 | — | |
| ISM Services PMIi | 54.0 | +0.4 | June 2026 | — |
| Yield Curve | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y2Y Spreadi | 35 bp | — | daily | tomorrow | Positive curve. Recession odds receding. |
| Sentiment | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) | 47 (Neutral) | unchanged | daily | tomorrow | |
| Crypto Fear & Greedi | 23 (Extreme Fear) | +1 | daily | tomorrow | |
| News Sentimenti | +19 (Greed) | +3 | every 30 min | — |
03News Sentiment
Greed04.1Tech Equitiesi
BullishTech is broadly higher with 7 of 9 names in the green, but the gains are uneven. Advanced Micro Devices leads at +5.67% and Meta Platforms adds +4.70%, while Nvidia slips -0.66% and Alphabet gives back -0.84%. The semiconductor complex is the standout driver today, with the laggards a notable exception rather than the rule.
04.2Recent IPOs
04.3Indices
BullishiUS equities are broadly higher across the board, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) surging +3.50% and the Nasdaq up +1.30%, while the Dow lags at +0.27%. The Russell 2000 (+1.22%) is keeping pace with the Nasdaq, a sign that today's rally has legs beyond mega-cap tech. Breadth is notably healthy: the equal-weight RSP is actually outpacing the cap-weighted S&P 500 YTD by 0.71 percentage points (+10.70% vs +9.99%), meaning the average S&P 500 name is carrying its weight rather than being dragged by Mag7 concentration. Volatility is retreating sharply, with the VIX down -6.27% to 15.84 and the MOVE index off -4.61% to 65.4, reinforcing the risk-on tone. Internationally, the Nikkei (+1.75%) and Hang Seng (+1.66%) add a constructive global backdrop.
04.4US Treasuries & Credit
OfferedThe Treasury curve is drifting modestly higher in yield, with the 2-year at 4.21% (+2 bp) and the 10-year at 4.56% (+1 bp), leaving the 2s10s spread at +35 bp - a curve that remains positively sloped but not aggressively so. Real rates are essentially flat, with the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.31% (+1 bp) while the 10-year breakeven edges down 2 bp to 2.23%, suggesting the modest nominal yield rise is real-rate-driven rather than inflation-expectations-driven. Credit spreads are mixed: IG OAS holds steady at 76 bp while HY OAS widens 3 bp to 270 bp, a small but worth-watching divergence in risk appetite at the margin.
04.5US Inflation · Daily
SteadyTruflation's daily real-time read sits at 1.82% year-over-year, essentially unchanged over the past month (-0.02 pp) and trending steady. Transport is the top contributor, adding +0.60 pp to the headline, while the 2.43 pp gap below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2% continues to suggest the lagged monthly series has yet to fully reflect the deceleration visible in higher-frequency data.
Index Components
12 basket categories · sorted by weight| Category | Inflation (YoY)i | Contributioni | Trend (1-mo)i |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Housing
23.1% of basket
|
+0.13% |
+0.03 pp
|
Heating +0.33 pp |
|
Transport
19.8% of basket
|
+3.03% |
+0.60 pp
|
Cooling −1.71 pp |
|
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
|
+1.81% |
+0.28 pp
|
Heating +2.09 pp |
|
Health
8.8% of basket
|
+0.73% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.13 pp |
|
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
|
+2.48% |
+0.17 pp
|
Cooling −1.59 pp |
|
Utilities
6.0% of basket
|
+2.95% |
+0.18 pp
|
Heating +0.40 pp |
|
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
|
+2.25% |
+0.12 pp
|
Cooling −0.12 pp |
|
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
|
+6.40% |
+0.24 pp
|
Heating +0.62 pp |
|
Other
3.4% of basket
|
+3.10% |
+0.10 pp
|
Heating +0.64 pp |
|
Communications
3.3% of basket
|
-0.11% |
0.00 pp
|
Heating +1.46 pp |
|
Education
2.3% of basket
|
+2.56% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.87 pp |
|
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
|
+2.75% |
+0.05 pp
|
Cooling −1.68 pp |
04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve
OfferedThe JGB curve is steepening at the long end, with the 10-year yield ticking up 1 bp to 2.87% and the 30-year sitting at 4.01%, while the 2-year holds at 1.44% - leaving the 2s10s spread at a wide +142 bp. That steep slope reflects duration risk being priced well above the Bank of Japan's 1.00% policy rate, keeping the short end of the yen carry trade anchored even as longer-dated funding costs rise. The wide curve steepness is the key backdrop for yen-borrowing flows today.
04.7Commodities
MixedGold is softer, slipping -0.37% to $4,125.3 with Silver nearly flat at $60.805 (+0.09%), a modest divergence within the metals complex. Energy is mixed: Brent is up +1.28% while WTI edges down -0.19% and Natural Gas retreats -1.50%, leaving no clean directional read across the commodity space today.
04.8Crypto Assets
BullishBitcoin and the broader crypto market are grinding higher, with BTC up +1.21% to $63,951.98, Ethereum +1.62% to $1,772.56, and Solana +1.06% to $78.86, while total crypto market cap is up +1.93% over 24 hours. The signal is mixed beneath the surface: perpetual funding rates are positive (BTC at +5.03% APR, ETH at +7.58% APR), indicating longs are paying shorts, yet the Fear and Greed index sits deep in Extreme Fear at 23. Spot ETF flows are a headwind, with BTC ETFs seeing $95M in outflows and ETH ETFs $52M on the latest day, though the 7-day trend for both remains net positive. DeFi TVL is up +0.85% over 24 hours, adding a modest constructive data point, while BTC dominance at 56.4% shows capital remains concentrated in the largest asset.
04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows
DistributingCorporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,279,883 BTC (~$81.9B, 6.09% of supply), 7,751,768 ETH (~$13.7B, 6.42% of supply), and 19,021,279 SOL (~$1.5B, 3.27% of supply) held across tracked entities. Daily spot ETF flows are negative for both BTC (-$95M) and ETH (-$52M), but the 7-day picture is constructive: BTC has attracted +$107M and ETH +$66M over the past week, suggesting the single-day outflows are a pause rather than a trend reversal.
| Asset | Total Held | USD Value | % of Supply | Top Public Holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
|
1.28 M BTC | $81.9 B | 6.09% | Strategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k |
|
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
|
7.75 M ETH | $13.7 B | 6.42% | BitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k |
|
◎
Solana
SOL
|
19.02 M SOL | $1.5 B | 3.27% | Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M |
04.10Smart Money Positioning
AddingThe biggest add over the past 24 hours is Litentry/Heima (LIT) at +$1.68M, bringing tracked holdings to $152.3M across 4 wallets. The biggest trim is Superstate USTB (USTB), a tokenized short-term US Treasury fund, down -$136K on the day and -$2.47M over 7 days to $16.9M. Overall positioning is net positive, with tracked wallets adding +$2.44M in aggregate over the past 24 hours.
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure) |
$176.1M
3 wallets
|
+$156K | -$150K | building | $4.06B |
| 2 |
LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation |
$152.3M
4 wallets
|
+$1.68M | +$1.66M | building | $619.0M |
| 3 |
UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX) |
$141.8M
26 wallets
|
-$120K | +$354K | building | $2.16B |
| 4 |
ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets) |
$95.1M
13 wallets
|
+$596K | +$36K | building | $1.56B |
| 5 |
BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange |
$93.0M
4 wallets
|
-$134K | -$73K | building | $1.15B |
| 6 |
WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era |
$74.7M
21 wallets
|
+$424K | -$191K | building | $1.36B |
| 7 |
WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol |
$43.9M
1 wallet
|
+$11K | -$17K | building | $1.86B |
| 8 |
MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer |
$20.2M
5 wallets
|
-$35K | -$89K | building | $1.49B |
| 9 |
USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund |
$16.9M
6 wallets
|
-$136K | -$2.47M | building | $836.8M |
| 10 |
STETHEthereum Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt |
$14.5M
10 wallets
|
-$4K | +$259K | building | $16.29B |
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin |
$1.3M
11 wallets
|
-$378 | -$756 | building | $395.3M |
| 2 |
USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin |
$570.1K
8 wallets
|
+$2K | +$10K | building | $81.8M |
| 3 |
DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products |
$162.7K
10 wallets
|
+$41 | +$39 | building | $115.0M |
| 4 |
PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token |
$161.1K
12 wallets
|
+$289 | +$20K | building | $614.0M |
| 5 |
PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps |
$140.0K
2 wallets
|
+$158 | -$114K | building | $8.3M |
05Technical Dashboard
Mixed| Asset | Last | Trendi | Supporti | Resistancei | RSIi | RSI Status | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX S&P 500 | 7,543.64 | Bullish | 7,424.39 | 7,546.89 | 58 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| IXIC Nasdaq Comp. | 26,206.89 | Bullish | 26,016.13 | 26,215.82 | 54 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| DXY Dollar Index | 113.76 | USD ↑ | 112.06 | 114.35 | 59 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| VIX Volatility | 15.84 | Suppressed | 15.76 | 17.48 | 44 | Neutral | Hedgeconf 70% |
| US10Y US 10Y Yield | 4.56% | Yields ↑ | 4.47% | 4.56% | 60 | Neutral | Sell bondsconf 75% |
| CL WTI Crude | $69.60 | Bearish | $69.60 | $75.22 | 27 | Oversold | Holdconf 50% |
| XAU Gold | $4,125 | Bearish | $4,118 | $4,341 | 44 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| BTC Bitcoin | $63,952 | Bearish | $62,913 | $65,922 | 53 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| ETH Ethereum | $1,773 | Bearish | $1,737 | $1,787 | 55 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
06Key Events
Next 7 daysThe week ahead is dense with market-moving catalysts. The major US banks kick things off Monday with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo all reporting on July 14, followed by Johnson and Johnson and Morgan Stanley on July 15, then Netflix, UnitedHealth Group, and Taiwan Semiconductor on July 16. On the macro side, the Producer Price Index (June) lands July 15, Retail Sales (June) on July 16, and the week closes with Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on July 17 - 12 high-impact US macro releases in total.
U.S. Macro Releases
-
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI MoM (Jun)prev 0.20 % High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI MoM (Jun)prev 0.50 % High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI YoY (Jun)prev 4.20 % High -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.90 % High - Fri, Jul 17 Housing Starts (Jun)Est: 1.33 M · prev 1.18 M High
- Fri, Jul 17 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)Est: 50.40 · prev 49.50 High
-
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI s.a (Jun)Est: 334 · prev 334.0 Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI (Jun)Est: 335.1 % · prev 335.1 % Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI YoY (Jun)prev 2.90 % Medium -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PPI MoM (Jun)Est: 0.40 % · prev 0.40 % Medium -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.80 % Medium -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/11)Est: 216 K · prev 215 K Medium - Fri, Jul 17 Housing Starts MoM (Jun)Est: 0 % · prev -15.40 % Medium
- Fri, Jul 17 Industrial Production MoM (Jun)Est: 0.20 % · prev 0.10 % Medium
-
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI (Jun)prev 336.1 % Low -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PPI YoY (Jun)Est: 4.90 % · prev 4.90 % Low -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY (Jun)Est: 5 % · prev 5.10 % Low -
Wed
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.80 % Low -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales YoY (Jun)Est: 6.70 % · prev 6.90 % Low -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.50 % Low - Fri, Jul 17 Industrial Production YoY (Jun)Est: 1.50 % · prev 1.70 % Low
Earnings
- Tue · After close JPM — JPMorgan ChaseEPS est $5.52 (+11% YoY) · Rev est $51.1B (+14% YoY) High
- Tue · After close BAC — Bank of AmericaEPS est $1.13 (+27% YoY) · Rev est $30.7B (+16% YoY) High
- Tue · After close GS — Goldman SachsEPS est $14 (+28% YoY) · Rev est $16.1B (+11% YoY) High
- Tue · After close WFC — Wells FargoEPS est $1.74 (+13% YoY) · Rev est $21.9B (+5% YoY) High
- Wed · After close MS — Morgan StanleyEPS est $2.89 (+36% YoY) · Rev est $19.7B (+26% YoY) High
- Wed · After close JNJ — Johnson & JohnsonEPS est $2.84 (+3% YoY) · Rev est $25.0B (+5% YoY) High
- Thu · After close TSM — Taiwan Semi (TSMC)EPS est $3.77 (+44% YoY) · Rev est $40.0B (+26% YoY) High
- Thu · After close NFLX — NetflixEPS est $0.79 (+10% YoY) · Rev est $12.6B (+14% YoY) High
- Thu · After close UNH — UnitedHealthEPS est $4.84 (+19% YoY) · Rev est $110.8B (−1% YoY) High
08Daily Alpha
Add selectively: crypto Extreme Fear contrasts with a neutral equity tape
Today's most actionable signal is the divergence between crypto Extreme Fear (Fear and Greed score: 23) and a broadly neutral equity sentiment (47.3). Bitcoin sits 1.7% above its 200-week moving average at $63,952, funding rates are near zero, and daily ETF outflows are modest against a positive seven-day trend - that combination historically marks asymmetric setups, not capitulation. On equities, the tape is constructive but not a clean entry: Communication Services led at +3.77% while Consumer Defensive fell -1.43%, a 5.2pp spread that signals late-cycle rotation rather than broad participation. Advanced Micro Devices surging +5.67% and Meta Platforms +4.70% on dollar weakness (DXY -0.51%) is momentum, not value. The cycle sits firmly Late-cycle, with TIPS real yields at 2.31% offering genuine competition to equities priced at a trailing price-to-earnings of 32.45 versus a 16.23 long-run mean. Add crypto on fear; hold equities; let bonds earn their keep at the long end.