Daily Market Report
Geopolitical Shock Hits Chips, Crypto Hits Extreme Fear
01Daily Summary
Escalating US military action against Iran drove a sharp risk-off rotation today. Advanced Micro Devices fell 6.5% and Intel dropped 9.7%, dragging the S&P 500 down 0.45% to 7,504 even as the equal-weight index held better at -0.13%, suggesting concentrated selling. WTI crude rose 2.2% to $71.87 on supply risk. The US dollar softened 0.51%, offering little safe-haven signal. Crypto's Fear and Greed Index collapsed to 20 (Extreme Fear), with Bitcoin sitting just below its 200-week moving average at $62,758.
S&P 500−0.45%NASDAQ−1.16%US10Y−1 bpWTI+2.23%Gold−0.52%BTC−0.89%ETH−0.79%DXY−0.51%VIX+3.60%
- Driver:US military strikes on Iran and revoked oil-tanker waivers triggered broad risk aversion, lifting crude and pressuring equities.
- Cross-asset:Equities soft, crypto down, DXY fell 0.51%, WTI crude up 2.2%; gold slipped 0.52%, offering no clear safe-haven consensus.
- Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 4.99%; 2s10s spread at 35 bp; TIPS real yield 2.24%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) tightened 2 bp to 272 bp; IPOR stablecoin rates near 3.4-3.5%.
- Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 20 (Extreme Fear); equity Fear and Greed at 43 (Fear); VIX rose 3.6% to 16.13; news sentiment score -44, 93% bearish.
- Forward bias:Fed FOMC Minutes release today at 18:00 UTC; China CPI and German trade data tomorrow. Any Iran de-escalation or dovish Fed tone could flip the regime.
02Macro Snapshot
Stagflation risk rising| Benchmark Rates | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Ratei | 3.50 – 3.75 % | unchanged | 17 Jun 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | Fed funds band of 3.50-3.75% sustains higher rates for markets. |
| ECB Ratei | 2.25 % | +25 bp | 11 Jun 2026 | 23 Jul 2026 | ECB rate at 2.25% after hike pressures European risk assets. |
| BoJ Ratei | 1.00 % | +25 bp | 16 Jun 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 | BoJ rate at 1.00% maintains attractive JPY carry trade for risk. |
| SOFRi | 3.63 % | −1 bp | daily | tomorrow | SOFR at 3.63% with 1bp drop signals looser short-end USD funding. |
| IPOR USDCi | 3.45 % | −18 bp | real-time | — | USDC IPOR at 3.45% below SOFR indicates deleveraging in onchain USD. |
| IPOR WETHi | 1.75 % | +0 bp | real-time | — | WETH IPOR rate at 1.75% shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand. |
| ETH Ratei | 2.26 % | — | real-time | — | ETH staking yield at 2.26% reflects current validator demand and fees. |
| US Inflation | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TruCPI-US (headline)i | 1.79 % | +0.01 pp | daily | tomorrow | Truflation CPI at 1.79% runs cooler than official monthly prints. |
| CPI YoY (headline)i | 4.2 % | +0.4 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Headline CPI at 4.2% keeps Fed cautious on further policy easing. |
| CPI YoY (core)i | 2.9 % | +0.1 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Core CPI at 2.9% shows persistent underlying inflation pressures. |
| PCE YoY (headline)i | 4.1 % | +0.3 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | PCE at 4.1% runs above Fed's 2% target, delaying rate cuts. |
| PCE YoY (core)i | 3.4 % | +0.1 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Core PCE at 3.4% remains sticky well above the 2% target. |
| PPI YoY (headline)i | 6.4 % | +0.8 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | PPI at 6.4% signals upstream inflation that may feed into CPI. |
| PPI YoY (core)i | 4.9 % | +0.0 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | Core PPI at 4.9% indicates persistent producer price pressures. |
| Euro Area Inflationi | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Area | 3.1 % | +0.1 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Euro area HICP at 3.1% stays above ECB 2% target. |
| Romania | 9.7 % | +0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Romania HICP at 9.7% reflects fiscal tightening and tax hikes. |
| Bulgaria | 6.3 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Bulgaria HICP at 6.3% aligns with euro convergence criteria post-2026. |
| Poland | 3.3 % | −0.0 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Poland HICP at 3.3% keeps central bank on hold versus 2% target. |
| Germany | 2.7 % | −0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Germany HICP at 2.7% anchors euro area inflation near ECB goal. |
| France | 2.8 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | France HICP at 2.8% sits close to ECB 2% target. |
| Labor | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) | 158.98 M jobs | +57 k | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | NFP rise of 57k signals labor market cooling. |
| Unemployment Ratei | 4.2 % | −0.1 pp | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Unemployment at 4.2% indicates rising slack in labor market. |
| Activity | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Productioni (YoY) | +1.7 % | +0.3 pp | 15 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Industrial production up 1.7% YoY reflects steady |
| Retail Salesi (m/m) | +1.0 % | +0.7 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 16 Jul 2026 | Retail sales up 1.0% m/m show resilient consumer demand. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMIi | 53.3 | +0.6 | June 2026 | — | |
| ISM Services PMIi | 54.0 | +0.4 | June 2026 | — |
| Yield Curve | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y2Y Spreadi | 35 bp | — | daily | tomorrow | Positive curve. Recession odds receding. |
| Sentiment | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) | 43 (Fear) | −1 | daily | tomorrow | |
| Crypto Fear & Greedi | 20 (Extreme Fear) | −7 | daily | tomorrow | |
| News Sentimenti | −44 (Fear) | −62 | every 30 min | — |
03News Sentiment
Fear
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed)
range
−44 to +58
·
current
−44
(Fear)
·
−62
24h
7 days ago
today
What's driving today's news sentiment
−42
Bearish
immediate
Bitcoin faces selling pressure amid U.S.-Iran conflict lifting oil prices
Renewed U.S.-Iran airstrikes have pushed oil prices higher, causing major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin to trade lower due to increased geopolitical and market risk.
+33
Bullish
US Approves Broad Rollout of OpenAI GPT-5.6 with Government Equity Stake
beincrypto.com
−31
Bearish
South Korean Stocks Drop Toward Bear Market amid AI Demand Concerns
bloomberg.com
−30
Bearish
Ctrl Wallet to Shut Down August 2026 Amid Rising Crypto Project Closures
beincrypto.com
+15
Neutral
US Defense Agency Increases Lithium Stockpiles to Secure Critical Mineral Supply
bloomberg.com
+13
Neutral
US Defense Expands Lithium Stockpiles to Secure Critical Mineral Supply
bloomberg.com
0
Neutral
China Continues US Soybean Purchases as Trade Relations Improve
bloomberg.com
04.1Tech Equitiesi
MixedTech is split today, with 5 of 9 names in the green but the damage concentrated in semiconductors: Intel off 9.66% and Advanced Micro Devices down 6.51% are dragging the cohort lower in aggregate. Meta Platforms is the standout on the upside at +2.55%, while Tesla sheds 4.02%. The rest of the mega-caps are range-bound, posting sub-1% moves in either direction.
AAPLApple
$310.66−0.64%
1D Range $310.15 — $315.48
1M Range $275.15 — $312.66
P/E TTMi37.3
P/E Fwdi32.2
50-DMAi+5.3%
200-DMAi+14.5%
RSI(14)i61
YTDi+14.6%
% from ATHi−2.1%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.77
MSFTMicrosoft
$388.84+0.54%
1D Range $388.22 — $395.57
1M Range $352.83 — $416.67
P/E TTMi23.1
P/E Fwdi20.0
50-DMAi−4.3%
200-DMAi−12.5%
RSI(14)i49
YTDi−17.8%
% from ATHi−30.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.48
GOOGLAlphabet
$367.03+0.16%
1D Range $365.51 — $373.16
1M Range $337.39 — $373.25
P/E TTMi27.7
P/E Fwdi24.9
50-DMAi−1.4%
200-DMAi+15.7%
RSI(14)i54
YTDi+16.5%
% from ATHi−10.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.62
AMZNAmazon
$245.98+0.75%
1D Range $242.70 — $248.91
1M Range $227.01 — $246.03
P/E TTMi29.1
P/E Fwdi24.4
50-DMAi−3.5%
200-DMAi+5.5%
RSI(14)i52
YTDi+8.6%
% from ATHi−11.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.69
NVDANVIDIA
$196.93+0.71%
1D Range $191.14 — $198.41
1M Range $192.53 — $212.45
P/E TTMi30.0
P/E Fwdi21.9
50-DMAi−6.0%
200-DMAi+3.0%
RSI(14)i44
YTDi+4.3%
% from ATHi−16.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.06
METAMeta Platforms
$615.58+2.55%
1D Range $603.66 — $625.37
1M Range $542.87 — $615.58
P/E TTMi22.1
P/E Fwdi17.6
50-DMAi+2.1%
200-DMAi−4.5%
RSI(14)i57
YTDi−5.4%
% from ATHi−22.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.02
TSLATesla
$402.90−4.02%
1D Range $401.88 — $419.56
1M Range $375.12 — $425.30
P/E TTMi336.2
P/E Fwdi165.7
50-DMAi−1.2%
200-DMAi−3.7%
RSI(14)i50
YTDi−8.0%
% from ATHi−19.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.54
INTCIntel
$110.39−9.66%
1D Range $108.30 — $116.47
1M Range $99.17 — $140.94
P/E TTMin/a
P/E Fwdi70.2
50-DMAi−4.3%
200-DMAi+80.2%
RSI(14)i43
YTDi+180.3%
% from ATHi−22.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.46
AMDAMD
$516.11−6.51%
1D Range $503.11 — $524.97
1M Range $452.40 — $580.91
P/E TTMi168.1
P/E Fwdi38.9
50-DMAi+9.9%
200-DMAi+83.1%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi+131.0%
% from ATHi−11.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.37
04.2Recent IPOs
SPCXSpaceX
IPO'd 12 Jun 2026 $149.47−6.83%
1D Range $148.86 — $159.30
1M Range $149.47 — $201.80
Mkt Capi$1.95T
IPO-day Vali$2.10T
IPO-to-Datei−7.1%
Floati6.1B · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a
P/E FwdiFY28E · 305x
RSI(14)i46% from ATHi−33.8%
04.3Indices
BearishiUS equities are broadly lower, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) the session's worst performer at -5.13%, pulling the Nasdaq down 1.16% and dragging the S&P 500 off 0.45%. The Russell 2000 drops 0.90%, underperforming the Dow's more modest -0.25% decline. Breadth is actually constructive on a YTD basis: the equal-weight RSP is outpacing the cap-weighted S&P 500 by 1.93 percentage points (+11.34% vs +9.41%), meaning the average S&P 500 name is leading the index heavyweights year-to-date, a broadening signal rather than a concentration one. Globally, Hang Seng gains 1.98% while Nikkei slips 0.97% and emerging markets (EEM) fall 2.74%. VIX ticks up 3.60% to 16.13, a mild bid for protection, while MOVE drops 4.61% to 65.4, signaling calmer bond markets.
US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,503.85−0.45%
1D Range 7,478.63 — 7,536.06
1M Range 7,267.00 — 7,554.28
50-DMAi+1.3%
200-DMAi+7.9%
RSI(14)i55
YTDi+9.4%
% from ATHi−1.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.77
IXICNasdaq Comp.
25,818.69−1.16%
1D Range 25,684.15 — 26,010.02
1M Range 25,169.50 — 26,683.94
50-DMAi−0.6%
200-DMAi+8.8%
RSI(14)i49
YTDi+11.1%
% from ATHi−4.9%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.60
DJIDow Jones Ind.
52,925.15−0.25%
1D Range 52,774.17 — 53,289.30
1M Range 49,918.79 — 53,055.91
50-DMAi+4.4%
200-DMAi+9.1%
RSI(14)i67
YTDi+9.4%
% from ATHi−0.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.70
RUTRussell 2000
2,982.49−0.90%
1D Range 2,974.14 — 3,016.57
1M Range 2,833.50 — 3,024.37
50-DMAi+3.1%
200-DMAi+13.4%
RSI(14)i55
YTDi+18.9%
% from ATHi−1.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.77
SOXXSemiconductors
551.69−5.13%
1D Range 536.13 — 558.00
1M Range 539.77 — 655.01
50-DMAi+0.2%
200-DMAi+45.4%
RSI(14)i45
YTDi+75.9%
% from ATHi−15.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.37
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
214.73−0.13%
1D Range 214.50 — 216.36
1M Range 206.53 — 215.00
50-DMAi+3.6%
200-DMAi+8.8%
RSI(14)i64
YTDi+11.3%
vs SPX YTDi+1.9pp
Cap-weight sharei-21%
VIXiVolatility Idx
16.13+3.60%
1D Range 15.87 — 16.13
1M Range 15.57 — 22.22
50-DMAi−8.1%
200-DMAi−13.6%
RSI(14)i45
YTDi+11.2%
MOVEiMOVE Index
65.40−4.61%
5D Range 65.40 — 71.96
1M Range 65.39 — 77.03
50-DMAi−9.3%
200-DMAi−9.6%
RSI(14)i42
YTDi+4.9%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
113.76−0.51%
5D Range 113.76 — 114.35
1M Range 111.99 — 114.67
50-DMAi+1.5%
200-DMAi+1.9%
RSI(14)i59
YTDi+2.3%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,665.88+0.13%
1D Range 10,651.17 — 10,747.01
1M Range 10,227.33 — 10,679.03
50-DMAi+2.6%
200-DMAi+5.7%
RSI(14)i64
YTDi+7.2%
% from ATHi−2.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.68
N225Nikkei 225
67,597.98−0.97%
1D Range 67,122.49 — 68,432.68
1M Range 64,179.27 — 72,366.34
50-DMAi+3.1%
200-DMAi+22.4%
RSI(14)i48
YTDi+30.5%
% from ATHi−6.7%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.27
HSIHang Seng
23,961.00+1.98%
1D Range 23,488.00 — 24,104.50
1M Range 22,671.87 — 24,842.68
50-DMAi−4.4%
200-DMAi−7.4%
RSI(14)i49
YTDi−8.9%
% from ATHi−14.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.20
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
203.13−0.64%
1D Range 202.71 — 204.29
1M Range 197.36 — 204.44
50-DMAi+1.1%
200-DMAi+7.2%
RSI(14)i54
YTDi+8.9%
% from ATHi−1.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.59
EEMMSCI Emerging
65.72−2.74%
1D Range 65.25 — 66.33
1M Range 64.59 — 71.21
50-DMAi−1.7%
200-DMAi+10.8%
RSI(14)i45
YTDi+16.9%
% from ATHi−7.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.57
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
41.8Overvalued
−0.49% today
Long-run mean17.4
Median16.1
All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999)
% from ATHi−5.5%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
32.3Overvalued
−0.49% today
Long-run mean16.2
Median15.1
All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP
218.1Overvalued
Long-run mean86.1
Median72.1
All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025)
% from ATHi−4.6%
Sector Rotationi
Real Estate+2.60%
Energy+0.35%
Telecom+0.14%
Tech+0.07%
Healthcare−0.56%
Financials−0.65%
Utilities−0.84%
Materials−1.51%
Discretionary−1.66%
Staples−1.88%
Industrials−3.41%
04.4US Treasuries & Credit
BidThe Treasury curve is little changed, with the 2Y and 10Y each down 1 basis point to 4.13% and 4.48% respectively, while the 30Y edges up 1 bp to 4.99%, leaving the 2s10s spread at +35 bp. Real rates dip modestly, with the 10Y TIPS real yield at 2.24% (-2 bp), while the 10Y breakeven nudges up 1 bp to 2.25%, a slight firming of inflation compensation. Credit spreads are essentially unchanged: high-yield OAS tightens 2 bp to 272 bp and investment-grade OAS holds at 75 bp, suggesting no deterioration in risk appetite despite the equity weakness.
US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.13%−1 bp
5D Range 4.10 — 4.17
1M Range 4.05 — 4.24
5-day Δ+6 bp
YTD Δ+66 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.48%−1 bp
5D Range 4.38 — 4.49
1M Range 4.38 — 4.56
10–2 spread+35 bp
YTD Δ+29 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
4.99%+1 bp
5D Range 4.86 — 4.99
1M Range 4.86 — 5.03
5-day Δ+12 bp
YTD Δ+13 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.39T
+$11.9B (1d)
+7.5% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.34T
+11.0% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.41%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.41%
+0.10pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.8%
~$10.15T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.24%
−2 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.25%
+1 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.72%
−2 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.75%
0 bp
tight · late-cycle
04.5US Inflation · Daily
SteadyTruflation's daily read puts year-over-year inflation at 1.79%, running 2.46 percentage points below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2%, with the daily signal steady and barely changed over the past month (-0.05 pp). Transport is the top contributor, adding 0.62 pp to the headline, and is the main category to watch for near-term drift.
1.79%
Daily Data By
Daily
+0.01 pp
1-mo
−0.05 pp
1-yr
+0.05 pp
About the number
Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.
Truflation data as of 2026-07-07
vs BLS CPI official 4.2% (May 2026, monthly · lagged)
−2.46 ppbelow official print
next BLS CPI: 14 Jul 2026
Index Components
12 basket categories · sorted by weight| Category | Inflation (YoY)i | Contributioni | Trend (1-mo)i |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Housing
23.1% of basket
|
+0.13% |
+0.03 pp
|
Heating +0.33 pp |
|
Transport
19.8% of basket
|
+3.15% |
+0.62 pp
|
Cooling −1.58 pp |
|
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
|
+1.39% |
+0.21 pp
|
Heating +1.71 pp |
|
Health
8.8% of basket
|
+0.76% |
+0.07 pp
|
Cooling −0.10 pp |
|
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
|
+2.52% |
+0.18 pp
|
Cooling −1.56 pp |
|
Utilities
6.0% of basket
|
+2.95% |
+0.18 pp
|
Heating +0.40 pp |
|
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
|
+2.24% |
+0.12 pp
|
Cooling −0.13 pp |
|
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
|
+6.40% |
+0.24 pp
|
Heating +0.62 pp |
|
Other
3.4% of basket
|
+3.15% |
+0.11 pp
|
Heating +0.69 pp |
|
Communications
3.3% of basket
|
-0.11% |
0.00 pp
|
Heating +1.46 pp |
|
Education
2.3% of basket
|
+2.56% |
+0.06 pp
|
Cooling −0.87 pp |
|
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
|
+2.83% |
+0.05 pp
|
Cooling −1.61 pp |
04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve
OfferedThe JGB curve is steep and edging steeper, with the 10Y yield up 1 bp to 2.83% and the 30Y sitting at 3.95%, while the 2Y holds at 1.40% against the Bank of Japan policy rate of 1.00%. The 2s10s spread of +143 bp reflects significant term premium being demanded at the long end, keeping yen carry-trade funding costs anchored at the short end while duration risk is priced higher out the curve.
JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.40%+1 bp
5D Range 1.39 — 1.40
1M Range 1.38 — 1.43
5-day Δ+2 bp
YTD Δ+21 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.83%+1 bp
5D Range 2.71 — 2.83
1M Range 2.59 — 2.83
10–2 spread+143 bp
YTD Δ+72 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
3.95%−2 bp
5D Range 3.88 — 3.98
1M Range 3.71 — 3.98
5-day Δ+8 bp
YTD Δ+56 bp
04.7Commodities
MixedEnergy is the session's bright spot, with WTI crude, Brent, and natural gas all rising roughly 2% to 2.2% across the board. Precious metals are giving back ground, with Gold (XAU) off 0.52% to $4,135.70 and Silver down 0.95% to $60.75, a mild reversal after recent strength.
CLWTI Crude
$71.87+2.23%
5D Range $70.30 — $74.62
1M Range $70.30 — $99.76
50-DMAi−24.2%
200-DMAi−4.3%
RSI(14)i29
YTDi+25.6%
COBrent
$71.59+2.04%
5D Range $70.16 — $75.69
1M Range $70.16 — $101.69
50-DMAi−28.0%
200-DMAi−11.8%
RSI(14)i27
YTDi+15.5%
NGNatural Gas
$3.33+2.15%
5D Range $3.15 — $3.33
1M Range $2.97 — $3.34
50-DMAi+12.2%
200-DMAi−10.4%
RSI(14)i60
YTDi+18.1%
XAUGold
$4,135.70−0.52%
5D Range $4,104.00 — $4,142.30
1M Range $4,008.80 — $4,381.40
50-DMAi−5.0%
200-DMAi−10.0%
RSI(14)i44
YTDi−5.7%
XAGSilver
$60.75−0.95%
5D Range $60.01 — $61.17
1M Range $58.09 — $70.77
50-DMAi−15.0%
200-DMAi−12.3%
RSI(14)i39
YTDi−16.6%
04.8Crypto Assets
BearishCrypto is under broad pressure, with Bitcoin off 0.89% to $62,758.00, Ethereum down 0.79% to $1,755.39, and Solana the session's laggard at -2.53% to $78.58. Total crypto market cap is down 0.97% over 24 hours, and DeFi TVL has shed 2.36%, pointing to liquidity contraction across the ecosystem. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 20, deep in Extreme Fear territory, which frames the backdrop for all price action today. Perp funding rates are low and positive for both BTC (+0.08% APR) and ETH (+0.41% APR), indicating no meaningful short squeeze pressure. BTC dominance holds at 56.0%, with spot ETF flows providing a modest offset: BTC drew $22M and ETH $27M in the latest session.
BTCBitcoin
$62,758.00−0.89%
1D Range $62,624.64 — $63,669.85
1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,276.80
50-DMAi−5.6%
200-DMAi−15.9%
200-WMAi($62,863.44) −0.2%
RSI(14)i48
% from ATHi−50.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.62
ETHEthereum
$1,755.39−0.79%
1D Range $1,745.64 — $1,781.69
1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,798.45
50-DMAi−2.6%
200-DMAi−22.2%
200-WMAi($2,472.40) −29.0%
RSI(14)i54
% from ATHi−64.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.54
SOLSolana
$78.58−2.53%
1D Range $78.32 — $80.64
1M Range $63.13 — $82.28
50-DMAi+4.4%
200-DMAi−15.6%
200-WMAi($107.34) −26.8%
RSI(14)i56
% from ATHi−73.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.69
ENAEthena
$0.0741−3.33%
1D Range $0.0738 — $0.0784
1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0955
50-DMAi−17.7%
200-DMAi−38.2%
RSI(14)i40
% from ATHi−95.1%
Sharpe(1Y)i−2.14
HYPEHyperliquid
$68.24−1.37%
1D Range $67.57 — $69.64
1M Range $53.28 — $73.57
50-DMAi+7.3%
200-DMAi+66.3%
RSI(14)i54
% from ATHi−9.1%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.87
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001548−3.89%
1D Range $0.001502 — $0.001679
1M Range $0.001197 — $0.001632
50-DMAi−3.2%
200-DMAi−18.5%
RSI(14)i52
% from ATHi−82.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.34
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.25T
−0.89%
56.0% of total
ETH Mcap
$211.9B
−0.79%
9.4% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$309.8B
−0.77%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.24T
−0.97%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$75.0B
−2.33%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$7.0B
+6.61%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$238.5B
−0.20%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$4.6B
+11.73%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$72.9B
−2.36%
all chains
Lending TVL
$38.0B
−2.48%
money markets
DEX TVL
$11.6B
−1.24%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.26%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+0.08% APR
balanced
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+0.41% APR
balanced
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.43
large traders long
1.43× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
20
Extreme Fear
Δ −7 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.45%
−0.18 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.60%
USDTi
3.39%
−0.24 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.32%
DAIi
3.54%
−0.09 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.67%
WETHi
1.75%
−0.00 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.75%
04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows
AccumulatingCorporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,279,883 BTC (~$80.3B, 6.09% of supply), 7,751,768 ETH (~$13.6B, 6.42% of supply), and 19,021,279 SOL (~$1.5B, 3.27% of supply) held across tracked entities. Spot ETF flows are positive but modest on the day: BTC +$22M, ETH +$27M, and SOL +$2M, consistent with the 7-day trend where BTC leads at +$215M, ETH adds +$91M, and SOL contributes +$13M.
| Asset | Total Held | USD Value | % of Supply | Top Public Holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
|
1.28 M BTC | $80.3 B | 6.09% | Strategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k |
|
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
|
7.75 M ETH | $13.6 B | 6.42% | BitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k |
|
◎
Solana
SOL
|
19.02 M SOL | $1.5 B | 3.27% | Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M |
Public-company treasuries
₿BitcoinBTC
$80.3 B
1.28 M BTC
% of supply6.09%
Top public holdersStrategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
ΞEthereumETH
$13.6 B
7.75 M ETH
% of supply6.42%
Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎SolanaSOL
$1.5 B
19.02 M SOL
% of supply3.27%
Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC
13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…
Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM)
1.
IBIT
BlackRock
$44.9 B
2.
FBTC
Fidelity
$13.4 B
3.
GBTC
Grayscale
$8.4 B
4.
BTC
Grayscale Mini
$3.4 B
5.
ARKB
ARK 21Shares
$2.4 B
+ 8 more
Flow data as of 07 Jul 2026
AUM
$77.5 B
24h Flow+$22 M
7-day Flow+$215 M
YTD Flowi−$5.18 B
ETH
10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…
Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM)
1.
ETHA
BlackRock
$4.6 B
2.
ETH
Grayscale Mini
$1.4 B
3.
ETHE
Grayscale
$1.3 B
4.
FETH
Fidelity
$994.2 M
5.
ETHB
BlackRock
$488.2 M
+ 5 more
Flow data as of 07 Jul 2026
AUM
$9.2 B
24h Flow+$27 M
7-day Flow+$91 M
YTD Flowi−$1.38 B
SOL
6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…
Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM)
1.
BSOL
Bitwise
$657.8 M
2.
GSOL
Grayscale
$107.3 M
3.
VSOL
VanEck
$15.4 M
4.
SOEZ
Franklin
$9.2 M
5.
TSOL
VanEck
$2.6 M
+ 1 more
Flow data as of 07 Jul 2026
AUM
$792.3 M
24h Flow+$2 M
7-day Flow+$13 M
YTD Flowi−$19 M
04.10Smart Money Positioning
AddingThe biggest 24-hour add is Litentry/Heima (LIT) at +$1.31M, lifting the position to $148.2M across 4 wallets. The largest trim is Worldcoin (WLD), cut by $196K to $72.3M held across 21 wallets. Net positioning across tracked wallets is a modest +$1.53M on the day.
Total tracked$811.5M
Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist
Net change 24h+$1.53M
Data by
Paid per call
x402by
Largest holdings
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure) |
$173.4M
3 wallets
|
+$616K | -$288K | building | $3.99B |
| 2 |
LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation |
$148.2M
4 wallets
|
+$1.31M | -$832K | building | $604.7M |
| 3 |
UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX) |
$132.8M
26 wallets
|
+$311K | +$549K | building | $2.02B |
| 4 |
ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets) |
$96.1M
13 wallets
|
-$162K | +$154K | building | $1.58B |
| 5 |
BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange |
$93.7M
4 wallets
|
-$166K | -$86K | building | $1.16B |
| 6 |
WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era |
$72.3M
21 wallets
|
-$196K | +$34K | building | $1.31B |
| 7 |
WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol |
$43.8M
1 wallet
|
-$45K | +$29K | building | $1.86B |
| 8 |
MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer |
$18.1M
5 wallets
|
-$59K | -$67K | building | $1.33B |
| 9 |
USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund |
$16.9M
6 wallets
|
-$46K | -$2.60M | building | $866.2M |
| 10 |
STETHEthereum Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt |
$13.9M
9 wallets
|
-$32K | -$29K | building | $16.06B |
1AETHWETHEthereum
$173.4M
3 wallets
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
24h+$616K
7d-$288K
2LITEthereum
$148.2M
4 wallets
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
24h+$1.31M
7d-$832K
3UNIEthereum
$132.8M
26 wallets
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
24h+$311K
7d+$549K
4ONDOEthereum
$96.1M
13 wallets
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
24h-$162K
7d+$154K
5BGBEthereum
$93.7M
4 wallets
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
24h-$166K
7d-$86K
6WLDEthereum
$72.3M
21 wallets
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
24h-$196K
7d+$34K
7WLFIEthereum
$43.8M
1 wallet
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
24h-$45K
7d+$29K
8MORPHOEthereum
$18.1M
5 wallets
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
24h-$59K
7d-$67K
9USTBEthereum
$16.9M
6 wallets
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
24h-$46K
7d-$2.60M
10STETHEthereum
$13.9M
9 wallets
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
24h-$32K
7d-$29K
Small-cap watch
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin |
$1.3M
10 wallets
|
-$3K | +$4K | building | $391.2M |
| 2 |
USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin |
$547.5K
6 wallets
|
-$551 | -$1K | building | $80.2M |
| 3 |
PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token |
$162.6K
12 wallets
|
+$389 | -$145K | building | $621.9M |
| 4 |
DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products |
$154.2K
10 wallets
|
-$202 | +$194 | building | $109.0M |
| 5 |
PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps |
$138.0K
2 wallets
|
-$720 | -$183 | building | $4.5M |
1PENGUSolana
$1.3M
10 wallets
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
24h-$3K
7d+$4K
2USELESSSolana
$547.5K
6 wallets
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
24h-$551
7d-$1K
3PUMPSolana
$162.6K
12 wallets
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
24h+$389
7d-$145K
4DRVEthereum
$154.2K
10 wallets
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
24h-$202
7d+$194
5PEARArbitrum
$138.0K
2 wallets
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
24h-$720
7d-$183
05Technical Dashboard
Mixed| Asset | Last | Trendi | Supporti | Resistancei | RSIi | RSI Status | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX S&P 500 | 7,503.85 | Bullish | 7,410.64 | 7,536.06 | 55 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| IXIC Nasdaq Comp. | 25,818.69 | Sideways | 23,739.32 | 25,969.06 | 49 | Neutral | Holdconf 50% |
| DXY Dollar Index | 113.76 | USD ↑ | 112.06 | 114.35 | 59 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| VIX Volatility | 16.13 | Suppressed | 15.87 | 17.55 | 45 | Neutral | Hedgeconf 70% |
| US10Y US 10Y Yield | 4.48% | Yields ↑ | 4.46% | 4.49% | 52 | Neutral | Sell bondsconf 75% |
| CL WTI Crude | $71.87 | Bearish | $70.30 | $75.08 | 29 | Oversold | Holdconf 50% |
| XAU Gold | $4,136 | Bearish | $4,104 | $4,354 | 44 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| BTC Bitcoin | $62,758 | Bearish | $62,625 | $66,485 | 48 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| ETH Ethereum | $1,755 | Bearish | $1,746 | $1,802 | 54 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
06Key Events
Next 7 daysThe week's primary focus is Tuesday through Wednesday, when June CPI, core CPI, and inflation rate data all land at 12:30 ET on July 14, followed by June PPI on July 15. Earnings season kicks into gear simultaneously, with PepsiCo (PEP) reporting tomorrow and a wave of major financials - JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC) - all reporting July 14, with Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) and Morgan Stanley (MS) following July 15.
U.S. Macro Releases
-
Today
18:00 UTC · 20:00 CEST FOMC Minutes High -
Tomorrow
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST Existing Home Sales (Jun)Est: 4.20 M · prev 4.17 M High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI MoM (Jun)prev 0.50 % High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI YoY (Jun)prev 4.20 % High -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI MoM (Jun)prev 0.20 % High -
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/04)Est: 218 K · prev 215 K Medium -
Tomorrow
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST Existing Home Sales MoM (Jun)Est: 0.70 % · prev 3.20 % Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI YoY (Jun)prev 2.90 % Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI s.a (Jun)Est: 334 · prev 334.0 Medium -
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST CPI (Jun)Est: 335.1 % · prev 335.1 % Medium - Wed, Jul 15 Core PPI MoM (Jun)Est: 0.10 % · prev 0.40 % Medium
-
Tue
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core CPI (Jun)prev 336.1 % Low - Wed, Jul 15 PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Jun)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.80 % Low
- Wed, Jul 15 Core PPI YoY (Jun)Est: 4.90 % · prev 4.90 % Low
- Wed, Jul 15 PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY (Jun)Est: 5 % · prev 5.10 % Low
1 / 3
Earnings
- Tomorrow · After close PEP — PepsiCoEPS est $2.19 (+3% YoY) · Rev est $24.0B (+5% YoY) High
- Tue · After close JPM — JPMorgan ChaseEPS est $5.55 (+12% YoY) · Rev est $49.8B (+11% YoY) High
- Tue · After close BAC — Bank of AmericaEPS est $1.11 (+25% YoY) · Rev est $30.6B (+16% YoY) High
- Tue · After close GS — Goldman SachsEPS est $14 (+28% YoY) · Rev est $16.1B (+11% YoY) High
- Tue · After close WFC — Wells FargoEPS est $1.73 (+12% YoY) · Rev est $21.8B (+5% YoY) High
- Wed, Jul 15 · After close MS — Morgan StanleyEPS est $2.83 (+33% YoY) · Rev est $19.5B (+25% YoY) High
- Wed, Jul 15 · After close JNJ — Johnson & JohnsonEPS est $2.83 (+2% YoY) · Rev est $25.0B (+5% YoY) High
1 / 2
08Daily Alpha
Add selectively. Crypto Extreme Fear and WTI bid; equities remain expensive
Today's tape is split. The dominant news driver is US military escalation against Iran, per Bloomberg, which explains WTI crude's 2.2% gain and the broad risk-off news sentiment score of -44. Equities slipped modestly, but the sector spread tells a late-cycle rotation story: Real Estate gained 2.60% while Industrials shed 3.41%, a 6-point gap that signals defensive repositioning rather than broad confidence. Advanced Micro Devices fell 6.51% and Intel dropped 9.66%, dragging the semiconductor complex lower. The cycle sits firmly Late-cycle, with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 32.28 against a long-run mean of 16.23 - equities are not the entry here. The contrarian case lives in crypto: Bitcoin's Fear and Greed index at 20 (Extreme Fear) with Bitcoin sitting just below its 200-week moving average at $62,758 and ETF flows still positive ($21.5M in 24 hours) is a setup worth sizing into carefully. FOMC Minutes due today add near-term uncertainty. Hold equities, add small crypto on weakness.
24h Bias
Cautious; geopolitical risk dominates tape
Equities
Hold; late-cycle, semis under pressure
Bonds
Add small US 30Y at 4.99% real yield
Commodities
Add small WTI on Iran supply disruption risk
Crypto
Add small BTC near 200-WMA on Extreme Fear
Vol hedge
Hold; VIX at 16.13 still cheap protection