Daily Market Report
Tech Lifts Equities, Crypto Slides Into Fear
01Daily Summary
Tesla and AMD surged 6.7% and 6.6% respectively, lifting the S&P 500 to 7,537 (+0.72%) while a softer dollar (DXY -0.51%) provided tailwind. Bitcoin slipped to $63,028 (-1.5%), sitting just above its 200-week moving average of $62,865, as crypto Fear and Greed fell to 27 (Fear). Bitcoin ETF inflows of $266M in 24 hours offer a counterpoint, but the divergence between buoyant equities and a cautious crypto regime keeps the overall read mixed.
S&P 500+0.72%NASDAQ+1.12%US10Y+1 bpWTI+2.23%Gold−0.64%BTC−1.51%ETH−1.86%DXY−0.51%VIX−1.52%
- Driver:Tesla (+6.69%) and AMD (+6.61%) led a mega-cap tech rally; DXY softened 0.51%, easing financial conditions broadly.
- Cross-asset:Equities firm, crypto soft (-1.5% to -1.9%), gold down 0.64%, WTI crude up 2.23%, bonds range-bound with MOVE index falling 4.6%.
- Bonds & rates:US 30Y at 4.98%; 2s10s spread at 35 bp; 10Y real yield 2.26%; 10Y breakeven 2.24%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) 274 bp, IG OAS 75 bp; IPOR USDC 3.38%.
- Sentiment:Equity Fear and Greed at 44.5 (Fear); crypto Fear and Greed at 27 (Fear); VIX 15.57 (-1.5%); Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.39; funding rate near zero (0.01 bp).
- Forward bias:US FOMC Minutes (July 8) and CN CPI (July 9) are the key catalysts; a hawkish minutes read or hot CN inflation could widen credit spreads and flip the regime to Risk-Off.
02Macro Snapshot
Stagflation risk rising| Benchmark Rates | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Ratei | 3.50 – 3.75 % | unchanged | 17 Jun 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | Fed funds band at 3.50-3.75% signals cautious stance on rates. |
| ECB Ratei | 2.25 % | +25 bp | 11 Jun 2026 | 23 Jul 2026 | ECB rate hike to 2.25% pressures European risk assets and lifts EUR rates. |
| BoJ Ratei | 1.00 % | +25 bp | 16 Jun 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 | BoJ rate at 1.00% maintains attractive JPY carry trade for global risk. |
| SOFRi | 3.64 % | −2 bp | daily | tomorrow | SOFR at 3.64% after 2bp drop eases short-end USD funding conditions. |
| IPOR USDCi | 3.38 % | −26 bp | real-time | — | USDC IPOR at 3.38% below SOFR indicates deleveraging in onchain USD leverage. |
| IPOR WETHi | 1.75 % | −1 bp | real-time | — | WETH IPOR rate at 1.75% shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand. |
| ETH Ratei | 2.21 % | — | real-time | — | ETH staking yield at 2.21% reflects steady validator demand for native returns. |
| US Inflation | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TruCPI-US (headline)i | 1.78 % | -0.01 pp | daily | tomorrow | Truflation CPI at 1.78% runs cooler than official prints heading lower. |
| CPI YoY (headline)i | 4.2 % | +0.4 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Headline CPI at 4.2% keeps Fed cautious about further policy easing. |
| CPI YoY (core)i | 2.9 % | +0.1 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Core CPI at 2.9% shows persistent stickiness above the Fed target. |
| PCE YoY (headline)i | 4.1 % | +0.3 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Headline PCE at 4.1% remains well above Fed 2% target. |
| PCE YoY (core)i | 3.4 % | +0.1 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Core PCE at 3.4% stays sticky far above the 2% target. |
| PPI YoY (headline)i | 6.4 % | +0.8 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | PPI at 6.4% signals upstream inflation pressures likely flowing into CPI. |
| PPI YoY (core)i | 4.9 % | +0.0 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | Core PPI at 4.9% indicates persistent upstream inflation above core CPI. |
| Euro Area Inflationi | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Area | 3.1 % | +0.1 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Euro area HICP at 3.1% exceeds ECB 2% target delaying rate cuts. |
| Romania | 9.7 % | +0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Romania's HICP at 9.7% remains elevated due to fiscal and tax hikes. |
| Bulgaria | 6.3 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Bulgaria HICP at 6.3% reflects post-euro convergence inflation dynamics. |
| Poland | 3.3 % | −0.0 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Poland HICP at 3.3% above target keeps central bank on hold. |
| Germany | 2.7 % | −0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Germany HICP at 2.7% anchors euro area inflation near ECB target. |
| France | 2.8 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | France HICP at 2.8% sits above ECB target but cooler than bloc. |
| Labor | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) | 158.98 M jobs | +57 k | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | NFP gain of 57k signals labor market cooling from prior strength. |
| Unemployment Ratei | 4.2 % | −0.1 pp | 2 Jul 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Unemployment at 4.2% indicates rising slack prompting Fed easing considerations. |
| Activity | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Productioni (YoY) | +1.7 % | +0.3 pp | 15 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | |
| Retail Salesi (m/m) | +1.0 % | +0.7 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 16 Jul 2026 | Retail sales up 1.0% m/m point to resilient consumer demand. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMIi | 53.3 | +0.6 | June 2026 | — | |
| ISM Services PMIi | 54.0 | +0.4 | June 2026 | — |
| Yield Curve | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y2Y Spreadi | 35 bp | — | daily | tomorrow | Positive curve. Recession odds receding. |
| Sentiment | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) | 44 (Fear) | +1 | daily | tomorrow | |
| Crypto Fear & Greedi | 27 (Fear) | +3 | daily | tomorrow | |
| News Sentimenti | +17 (Greed) | −12 | every 30 min | — |
03News Sentiment
Greed
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed)
range
−24 to +58
·
current
+17
(Greed)
·
−12
24h
7 days ago
today
What's driving today's news sentiment
+43
Bullish
short-term
Broad US Stock Index Rally Led by Big Tech and Chip Stocks
US stock indexes closed higher on July 6, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 gaining over 0.7%, driven by strong performance in big tech and semiconductor sectors, signaling risk-on sentiment supporting crypto markets short term.
−37
Bearish
Geopolitical Tensions Rise as LNG Ship Hit Near Strait of Hormuz
bloomberg.com
−34
Bearish
Crypto Market Down Over 1% Due to Bitcoin Selling and Capital Rotation to US Stocks
beincrypto.com
−25
Bearish
Bitcoin price dips after $213M BTC sale amid regional tensions
coindesk.com
+8
Neutral
XRP price stalls near $1.14 with low volume hindering breakout
coindesk.com
0
Neutral
China boosts US soybean imports amid improving trade ties
bloomberg.com
04.1Tech Equitiesi
BullishTech is broadly bid today, with 8 of 9 names in the green. Tesla and Advanced Micro Devices lead the cohort, each up more than 6.6%, while Meta Platforms adds nearly 3%. The lone laggard is Microsoft, off roughly 1%.
AAPLApple
$312.66+1.31%
1D Range $307.01 — $314.18
1M Range $275.15 — $312.66
P/E TTMi37.5
P/E Fwdi32.4
50-DMAi+6.5%
200-DMAi+15.5%
RSI(14)i62
YTDi+15.4%
% from ATHi−1.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.82
MSFTMicrosoft
$386.74−0.96%
1D Range $381.22 — $389.15
1M Range $352.83 — $428.05
P/E TTMi22.9
P/E Fwdi19.9
50-DMAi−5.1%
200-DMAi−13.2%
RSI(14)i48
YTDi−18.2%
% from ATHi−30.4%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.49
GOOGLAlphabet
$366.46+1.82%
1D Range $357.38 — $367.93
1M Range $337.39 — $373.25
P/E TTMi27.7
P/E Fwdi24.9
50-DMAi−1.2%
200-DMAi+15.9%
RSI(14)i54
YTDi+16.3%
% from ATHi−10.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.56
AMZNAmazon
$244.16+0.61%
1D Range $240.88 — $246.04
1M Range $227.01 — $253.79
P/E TTMi28.9
P/E Fwdi24.2
50-DMAi−4.4%
200-DMAi+4.8%
RSI(14)i50
YTDi+7.8%
% from ATHi−12.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.66
NVDANVIDIA
$195.55+0.37%
1D Range $194.00 — $197.55
1M Range $192.53 — $218.66
P/E TTMi29.8
P/E Fwdi21.8
50-DMAi−6.8%
200-DMAi+2.4%
RSI(14)i42
YTDi+3.5%
% from ATHi−17.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.11
METAMeta Platforms
$600.29+2.98%
1D Range $581.76 — $603.50
1M Range $542.87 — $627.57
P/E TTMi21.5
P/E Fwdi17.1
50-DMAi−0.8%
200-DMAi−7.1%
RSI(14)i54
YTDi−7.7%
% from ATHi−24.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.10
TSLATesla
$419.77+6.69%
1D Range $390.50 — $420.00
1M Range $375.12 — $425.30
P/E TTMi350.2
P/E Fwdi172.7
50-DMAi+3.3%
200-DMAi+0.3%
RSI(14)i55
YTDi−4.2%
% from ATHi−15.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.63
INTCIntel
$122.20+1.54%
1D Range $121.53 — $127.28
1M Range $99.17 — $140.94
P/E TTMin/a
P/E Fwdi77.7
50-DMAi+7.8%
200-DMAi+102.6%
RSI(14)i50
YTDi+210.3%
% from ATHi−14.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.63
AMDAMD
$552.05+6.61%
1D Range $527.04 — $572.50
1M Range $452.40 — $580.91
P/E TTMi179.8
P/E Fwdi41.6
50-DMAi+19.9%
200-DMAi+98.4%
RSI(14)i57
YTDi+147.0%
% from ATHi−5.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.50
04.2Recent IPOs
SPCXSpaceX
IPO'd 12 Jun 2026 $160.42−0.98%
1D Range $155.04 — $167.90
1M Range $153.00 — $201.80
Mkt Capi$2.10T
IPO-day Vali$2.10T
IPO-to-Datei−0.3%
Floati6.1B · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a
P/E FwdiFY28E · 327x
RSI(14)i50% from ATHi−28.9%
04.3Indices
BullishiUS equities are advancing across the board, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) up 2.68% leading the charge and the Nasdaq gaining 1.12%, while the Dow lags at +0.29%. Notably, the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) is outpacing the cap-weighted index year-to-date by 1.58 percentage points (+11.48% vs +9.90%), meaning breadth is actually broader than the headline index implies - the average S&P 500 name is carrying more of the load than the Mag7 concentration story would suggest. Volatility is retreating, with the VIX down to 15.57 and the MOVE index falling 4.61% to 65.4. Internationally, the picture is mixed: emerging markets (EEM) are up 2.85% and the MSCI World (URTH) adds 0.88%, but the Nikkei fell 1.86% and European and Hong Kong markets are modestly lower.
US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,537.43+0.72%
1D Range 7,500.97 — 7,551.31
1M Range 7,267.00 — 7,584.32
50-DMAi+1.9%
200-DMAi+8.6%
RSI(14)i58
YTDi+9.9%
% from ATHi−1.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.85
IXICNasdaq Comp.
26,121.16+1.12%
1D Range 25,963.44 — 26,209.76
1M Range 25,169.50 — 26,830.96
50-DMAi+0.8%
200-DMAi+10.2%
RSI(14)i52
YTDi+12.4%
% from ATHi−3.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.71
DJIDow Jones Ind.
53,055.91+0.29%
1D Range 52,648.69 — 53,060.10
1M Range 49,918.79 — 53,055.91
50-DMAi+4.9%
200-DMAi+9.5%
RSI(14)i70
YTDi+9.7%
% from ATHiATH
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.76
RUTRussell 2000
3,009.54+0.45%
1D Range 2,996.98 — 3,024.37
1M Range 2,833.50 — 3,024.37
50-DMAi+4.4%
200-DMAi+14.6%
RSI(14)i60
YTDi+20.0%
% from ATHi−0.9%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.89
SOXXSemiconductors
581.51+2.68%
1D Range 580.54 — 598.00
1M Range 539.77 — 655.01
50-DMAi+6.6%
200-DMAi+54.5%
RSI(14)i50
YTDi+85.4%
% from ATHi−11.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.56
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
215.00+0.04%
1D Range 214.14 — 215.47
1M Range 206.53 — 215.00
50-DMAi+3.9%
200-DMAi+9.1%
RSI(14)i65
YTDi+11.5%
vs SPX YTDi+1.6pp
Cap-weight sharei-16%
VIXiVolatility Idx
15.57−1.52%
1D Range 15.56 — 16.50
1M Range 15.40 — 22.22
50-DMAi−11.7%
200-DMAi−16.6%
RSI(14)i43
YTDi+7.3%
MOVEiMOVE Index
65.40−4.61%
5D Range 65.40 — 71.96
1M Range 65.39 — 77.03
50-DMAi−9.3%
200-DMAi−9.6%
RSI(14)i42
YTDi+4.9%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
113.76−0.51%
5D Range 113.76 — 114.35
1M Range 111.99 — 114.67
50-DMAi+1.5%
200-DMAi+1.9%
RSI(14)i59
YTDi+2.3%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,651.77−0.26%
1D Range 10,618.43 — 10,733.39
1M Range 10,227.33 — 10,679.03
50-DMAi+2.5%
200-DMAi+5.6%
RSI(14)i63
YTDi+7.0%
% from ATHi−2.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.68
N225Nikkei 225
68,441.90−1.86%
1D Range 68,387.78 — 69,957.51
1M Range 64,179.27 — 72,366.34
50-DMAi+5.0%
200-DMAi+24.5%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi+32.1%
% from ATHi−5.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i+2.32
HSIHang Seng
23,490.50−0.53%
1D Range 23,426.50 — 23,822.50
1M Range 22,671.87 — 24,961.96
50-DMAi−6.5%
200-DMAi−9.3%
RSI(14)i42
YTDi−10.8%
% from ATHi−16.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i+0.17
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
204.44+0.88%
1D Range 203.44 — 204.72
1M Range 197.36 — 205.67
50-DMAi+2.0%
200-DMAi+8.0%
RSI(14)i58
YTDi+9.6%
% from ATHi−0.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.66
EEMMSCI Emerging
67.57+2.85%
1D Range 67.22 — 67.79
1M Range 64.59 — 71.21
50-DMAi+1.3%
200-DMAi+14.2%
RSI(14)i51
YTDi+20.1%
% from ATHi−5.2%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.70
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
42.0Overvalued
+0.89% today
Long-run mean17.4
Median16.1
All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999)
% from ATHi−5.0%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
32.4Overvalued
+0.89% today
Long-run mean16.2
Median15.1
All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP
218.1Overvalued
Long-run mean86.1
Median72.1
All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025)
% from ATHi−4.6%
Sector Rotationi
Discretionary+2.39%
Financials+1.26%
Energy+0.73%
Utilities+0.60%
Telecom+0.13%
Tech−0.08%
Staples−0.18%
Healthcare−0.40%
Materials−0.46%
Real Estate−1.24%
Industrials−1.33%
04.4US Treasuries & Credit
OfferedThe Treasury curve is bear-steepening at the margin: the 2-year yield fell 3 basis points to 4.14% while the 10-year and 30-year each edged up 1 bp to 4.49% and 4.98% respectively, widening the 2s10s spread to +35 bp. Real rates are essentially unchanged, with the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.26% and the 10-year breakeven at 2.24%, both up just 1 bp - inflation expectations are not driving today's move. Credit spreads are tight and stable: high-yield OAS sits at 274 bp (-1 bp) and investment-grade OAS holds at 75 bp, signaling no stress in risk appetite.
US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.14%−3 bp
5D Range 4.07 — 4.17
1M Range 4.05 — 4.24
5-day Δ+5 bp
YTD Δ+67 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.49%+1 bp
5D Range 4.38 — 4.49
1M Range 4.38 — 4.56
10–2 spread+35 bp
YTD Δ+30 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
4.98%+1 bp
5D Range 4.86 — 4.98
1M Range 4.86 — 5.03
5-day Δ+12 bp
YTD Δ+12 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.38T
+$736M (1d)
+7.6% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.32T
+9.6% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.35%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.35%
+0.06pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.9%
~$10.21T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.26%
+1 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.24%
+1 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.74%
−1 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.75%
0 bp
tight · late-cycle
04.5US Inflation · Daily
SteadyTruflation's daily year-over-year read sits at 1.78%, essentially flat over the past month (-0.03 pp) and down 0.11 pp over the past year, pointing to a steady and contained inflation trend at the real-time level. That stands 2.47 percentage points below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2%, a gap the daily read attributes largely to transport, which is adding 0.61 pp to the headline.
1.78%
Daily Data By
Daily
−0.01 pp
1-mo
−0.03 pp
1-yr
−0.11 pp
About the number
Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.
Truflation data as of 2026-07-06
vs BLS CPI official 4.2% (May 2026, monthly · lagged)
−2.47 ppbelow official print
next BLS CPI: 14 Jul 2026
Index Components
12 basket categories · sorted by weight| Category | Inflation (YoY)i | Contributioni | Trend (1-mo)i |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Housing
23.1% of basket
|
+0.13% |
+0.03 pp
|
Heating +0.33 pp |
|
Transport
19.8% of basket
|
+3.10% |
+0.61 pp
|
Cooling −1.59 pp |
|
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
|
+1.34% |
+0.20 pp
|
Heating +1.58 pp |
|
Health
8.8% of basket
|
+0.76% |
+0.07 pp
|
Cooling −0.11 pp |
|
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
|
+2.52% |
+0.18 pp
|
Cooling −1.61 pp |
|
Utilities
6.0% of basket
|
+2.83% |
+0.17 pp
|
Heating +0.31 pp |
|
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
|
+2.21% |
+0.12 pp
|
Cooling −0.13 pp |
|
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
|
+6.37% |
+0.24 pp
|
Heating +0.68 pp |
|
Other
3.4% of basket
|
+3.15% |
+0.11 pp
|
Heating +0.72 pp |
|
Communications
3.3% of basket
|
+0.10% |
0.00 pp
|
Heating +1.83 pp |
|
Education
2.3% of basket
|
+3.24% |
+0.08 pp
|
Heating +0.70 pp |
|
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
|
+2.64% |
+0.05 pp
|
Cooling −1.19 pp |
04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve
OfferedThe JGB curve is steepening sharply, with the 10-year yield jumping 6 basis points to 2.82% while the 2-year holds at 1.40%, pushing the 2s10s spread to +143 bp. The 30-year sits at 3.98%, well above the BoJ policy rate of 1.00%, reflecting significant duration premium at the long end. This steepening adds upward pressure to yen funding costs across the curve, a relevant backdrop for carry positions that borrow in JPY.
JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.40%+1 bp
5D Range 1.38 — 1.40
1M Range 1.38 — 1.43
5-day Δ−2 bp
YTD Δ+20 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.82%+6 bp
5D Range 2.69 — 2.82
1M Range 2.59 — 2.82
10–2 spread+143 bp
YTD Δ+71 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
3.98%+4 bp
5D Range 3.87 — 3.98
1M Range 3.71 — 3.98
5-day Δ+19 bp
YTD Δ+58 bp
04.7Commodities
MixedEnergy is the standout today, with WTI crude, Brent, and natural gas each gaining roughly 2% to 2.2% across the board. Precious metals are moving in the opposite direction, with Gold (XAU) slipping 0.64% to $4,140.90 and Silver off 1.50% to $61.395.
CLWTI Crude
$71.87+2.23%
5D Range $70.30 — $74.62
1M Range $70.30 — $99.76
50-DMAi−24.2%
200-DMAi−4.3%
RSI(14)i29
YTDi+25.6%
COBrent
$71.59+2.04%
5D Range $70.16 — $75.69
1M Range $70.16 — $101.69
50-DMAi−28.0%
200-DMAi−11.8%
RSI(14)i27
YTDi+15.5%
NGNatural Gas
$3.33+2.15%
5D Range $3.15 — $3.33
1M Range $2.97 — $3.34
50-DMAi+12.2%
200-DMAi−10.4%
RSI(14)i60
YTDi+18.1%
XAUGold
$4,140.90−0.64%
5D Range $4,135.20 — $4,179.50
1M Range $4,008.80 — $4,381.40
50-DMAi−5.1%
200-DMAi−9.9%
RSI(14)i44
YTDi−5.6%
XAGSilver
$61.40−1.50%
5D Range $61.34 — $62.59
1M Range $58.09 — $70.77
50-DMAi−14.4%
200-DMAi−11.3%
RSI(14)i40
YTDi−15.7%
04.8Crypto Assets
BearishCrypto is under modest pressure today despite positive equity sentiment elsewhere: Bitcoin is down 1.51% to $63,028.46, Ethereum off 1.86% to $1,764.35, and Solana down 1.41% to $80.75, with total market cap down only 0.41% - suggesting the selloff is relatively contained. BTC dominance holds at 55.8%, and the Fear and Greed index sits at 27 (Fear), reflecting cautious sentiment. Spot ETF flows are a constructive counterpoint: BTC ETFs pulled in $266 million and ETH ETFs added $21 million in the latest session. Perp funding is bifurcated, with BTC funding at a notably elevated +10.95% APR while ETH is near flat at +0.65% APR, indicating leveraged long interest is concentrated in Bitcoin rather than spread across the complex.
BTCBitcoin
$63,028.46−1.51%
1D Range $63,010.40 — $64,221.41
1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,276.80
50-DMAi−5.6%
200-DMAi−15.6%
200-WMAi($62,865.01) +0.3%
RSI(14)i49
% from ATHi−50.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.56
ETHEthereum
$1,764.35−1.86%
1D Range $1,761.36 — $1,806.39
1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,795.01
50-DMAi−2.4%
200-DMAi−22.0%
200-WMAi($2,472.45) −28.6%
RSI(14)i55
% from ATHi−63.8%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.46
SOLSolana
$80.75−1.41%
1D Range $80.59 — $82.35
1M Range $63.13 — $82.28
50-DMAi+7.2%
200-DMAi−13.5%
200-WMAi($107.35) −24.8%
RSI(14)i62
% from ATHi−72.5%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.53
ENAEthena
$0.0766−2.25%
1D Range $0.0749 — $0.0796
1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0955
50-DMAi−14.9%
200-DMAi−41.1%
RSI(14)i43
% from ATHi−95.0%
Sharpe(1Y)i−1.98
HYPEHyperliquid
$70.11−0.65%
1D Range $69.72 — $71.93
1M Range $53.28 — $73.57
50-DMAi+11.1%
200-DMAi+71.8%
RSI(14)i57
% from ATHi−6.6%
Sharpe(1Y)i+1.01
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001611−2.96%
1D Range $0.001556 — $0.001676
1M Range $0.001197 — $0.001632
50-DMAi+0.7%
200-DMAi−15.2%
RSI(14)i56
% from ATHi−81.3%
Sharpe(1Y)i−0.31
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.26T
−1.51%
55.8% of total
ETH Mcap
$212.9B
−1.86%
9.4% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$310.8B
−0.09%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.26T
−0.41%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$86.9B
+4.62%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$6.5B
+38.76%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$269.9B
+2.86%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$5.2B
+4.61%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$74.2B
−0.71%
all chains
Lending TVL
$38.9B
+0.10%
money markets
DEX TVL
$11.7B
+0.20%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.21%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+10.95% APR
longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+0.65% APR
longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.39
large traders long
1.39× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
27
Fear
Δ +3 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.38%
−0.26 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.48%
USDTi
3.20%
−0.44 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.18%
DAIi
3.74%
+0.10 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.75%
WETHi
1.75%
−0.01 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.76%
04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows
AccumulatingCorporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial, with tracked wallets holding 1,279,883 BTC (6.09% of supply, ~$80.7 billion), 7,751,768 ETH (6.42% of supply), and 19,021,279 SOL (3.27% of supply). Daily spot ETF flows are positive across all three assets - BTC at +$266 million, ETH at +$21 million, and SOL at +$8 million - though the 7-day BTC flow is slightly negative at -$29 million, while ETH and SOL remain in positive 7-day territory.
| Asset | Total Held | USD Value | % of Supply | Top Public Holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
|
1.28 M BTC | $80.7 B | 6.09% | Strategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k |
|
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
|
7.75 M ETH | $13.7 B | 6.42% | BitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k |
|
◎
Solana
SOL
|
19.02 M SOL | $1.5 B | 3.27% | Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M |
Public-company treasuries
₿BitcoinBTC
$80.7 B
1.28 M BTC
% of supply6.09%
Top public holdersStrategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
ΞEthereumETH
$13.7 B
7.75 M ETH
% of supply6.42%
Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.74M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎SolanaSOL
$1.5 B
19.02 M SOL
% of supply3.27%
Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC
13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…
Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM)
1.
IBIT
BlackRock
$44.9 B
2.
FBTC
Fidelity
$13.4 B
3.
GBTC
Grayscale
$8.4 B
4.
BTC
Grayscale Mini
$3.4 B
5.
ARKB
ARK 21Shares
$2.4 B
+ 8 more
Flow data as of 06 Jul 2026
AUM
$77.5 B
24h Flow+$266 M
7-day Flow−$29 M
YTD Flowi−$5.20 B
ETH
10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…
Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM)
1.
ETHA
BlackRock
$4.6 B
2.
ETH
Grayscale Mini
$1.4 B
3.
ETHE
Grayscale
$1.3 B
4.
FETH
Fidelity
$994.2 M
5.
ETHB
BlackRock
$488.2 M
+ 5 more
Flow data as of 06 Jul 2026
AUM
$9.2 B
24h Flow+$21 M
7-day Flow+$37 M
YTD Flowi−$1.41 B
SOL
6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…
Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM)
1.
BSOL
Bitwise
$657.8 M
2.
GSOL
Grayscale
$107.3 M
3.
VSOL
VanEck
$15.4 M
4.
SOEZ
Franklin
$9.2 M
5.
TSOL
VanEck
$2.6 M
+ 1 more
Flow data as of 06 Jul 2026
AUM
$792.3 M
24h Flow+$8 M
7-day Flow+$9 M
YTD Flowi−$18 M
04.10Smart Money Positioning
TrimmingThe biggest add over the past 24 hours is Litentry/Heima (LIT) at +$1.52 million, bringing the position to $155.6 million across 4 wallets. The biggest trim is Superstate USTB (USTB), a tokenized short-term US Treasury fund, cut by $2.08 million to $17.9 million. Overall smart-money positioning is modestly net negative on the day at -$461K.
Total tracked$822.9M
Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist
Net change 24h-$461K
Data by
Paid per call
x402by
Largest holdings
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure) |
$175.4M
3 wallets
|
+$177K | -$41K | building | $4.04B |
| 2 |
LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation |
$155.6M
4 wallets
|
+$1.52M | +$439K | building | $635.8M |
| 3 |
UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX) |
$127.2M
26 wallets
|
-$75K | -$236K | building | $1.94B |
| 4 |
ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets) |
$97.2M
13 wallets
|
+$311K | +$151K | building | $1.60B |
| 5 |
BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange |
$94.0M
4 wallets
|
-$237K | -$213K | building | $1.16B |
| 6 |
WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era |
$77.0M
21 wallets
|
-$194K | -$80K | building | $1.40B |
| 7 |
WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol |
$44.6M
1 wallet
|
+$103K | +$138K | building | $1.88B |
| 8 |
USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund |
$17.9M
6 wallets
|
-$2.08M | -$2.02M | building | $890.0M |
| 9 |
MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer |
$17.5M
5 wallets
|
+$14K | +$15K | building | $1.28B |
| 10 |
STETHEthereum Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt |
$14.0M
9 wallets
|
+$4K | -$22K | building | $16.15B |
1AETHWETHEthereum
$175.4M
3 wallets
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
24h+$177K
7d-$41K
2LITEthereum
$155.6M
4 wallets
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
24h+$1.52M
7d+$439K
3UNIEthereum
$127.2M
26 wallets
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
24h-$75K
7d-$236K
4ONDOEthereum
$97.2M
13 wallets
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
24h+$311K
7d+$151K
5BGBEthereum
$94.0M
4 wallets
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
24h-$237K
7d-$213K
6WLDEthereum
$77.0M
21 wallets
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
24h-$194K
7d-$80K
7WLFIEthereum
$44.6M
1 wallet
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
24h+$103K
7d+$138K
8USTBEthereum
$17.9M
6 wallets
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
24h-$2.08M
7d-$2.02M
9MORPHOEthereum
$17.5M
5 wallets
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
24h+$14K
7d+$15K
10STETHEthereum
$14.0M
9 wallets
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
24h+$4K
7d-$22K
Small-cap watch
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin |
$1.4M
10 wallets
|
+$2K | +$6K | building | $414.0M |
| 2 |
USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin |
$651.7K
8 wallets
|
+$1K | +$2K | building | $94.7M |
| 3 |
PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token |
$169.8K
12 wallets
|
+$817 | -$812K | building | $648.8M |
| 4 |
DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products |
$163.4K
10 wallets
|
+$395 | -$1K | building | $115.2M |
| 5 |
PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps |
$130.6K
2 wallets
|
+$2K | +$239 | building | $4.3M |
1PENGUSolana
$1.4M
10 wallets
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
24h+$2K
7d+$6K
2USELESSSolana
$651.7K
8 wallets
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
24h+$1K
7d+$2K
3PUMPSolana
$169.8K
12 wallets
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
24h+$817
7d-$812K
4DRVEthereum
$163.4K
10 wallets
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
24h+$395
7d-$1K
5PEARArbitrum
$130.6K
2 wallets
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
24h+$2K
7d+$239
05Technical Dashboard
Mixed| Asset | Last | Trendi | Supporti | Resistancei | RSIi | RSI Status | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX S&P 500 | 7,537.43 | Bullish | 7,394.74 | 7,551.31 | 58 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| IXIC Nasdaq Comp. | 26,121.16 | Bullish | 25,912.18 | 26,209.76 | 52 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| DXY Dollar Index | 113.76 | USD ↑ | 112.06 | 114.35 | 59 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| VIX Volatility | 15.57 | Suppressed | 15.56 | 17.63 | 43 | Neutral | Hedgeconf 70% |
| US10Y US 10Y Yield | 4.49% | Yields ↑ | 4.46% | 4.49% | 53 | Neutral | Sell bondsconf 75% |
| CL WTI Crude | $71.87 | Bearish | $70.30 | $75.08 | 29 | Oversold | Holdconf 50% |
| XAU Gold | $4,141 | Bearish | $4,135 | $4,365 | 44 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| BTC Bitcoin | $63,028 | Bearish | $63,010 | $66,753 | 49 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
| ETH Ethereum | $1,764 | Bearish | $1,761 | $1,808 | 55 | Neutral | Sellconf 75% |
06Key Events
Next 7 daysThe week's focal point is July 14, when the June CPI suite - core inflation, headline year-over-year, and month-over-month - all print simultaneously at 12:30 UTC, representing the single highest-density macro risk event on the calendar. That same day brings a sweep of major bank earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo all report. PepsiCo kicks off earnings season earlier on July 9.
U.S. Macro Releases
-
Tomorrow
18:00 UTC · 20:00 CEST FOMC Minutes High -
Thu
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST Existing Home Sales (Jun)Est: 4.20 M · prev 4.17 M High - Tue, Jul 14 CPI YoY (Jun)prev 4.20 % High
- Tue, Jul 14 CPI MoM (Jun)prev 0.50 % High
- Tue, Jul 14 Core CPI MoM (Jun)prev 0.20 % High
-
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/04)Est: 220 K · prev 215 K Medium -
Thu
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST Existing Home Sales MoM (Jun)Est: 0.70 % · prev 3.20 % Medium - Tue, Jul 14 CPI (Jun)Est: 335.1 % · prev 335.1 % Medium
- Tue, Jul 14 Core CPI YoY (Jun)prev 2.90 % Medium
- Tue, Jul 14 CPI s.a (Jun)Est: 335.3 · prev 334.0 Medium
- Tue, Jul 14 Core CPI (Jun)prev 336.1 % Low
1 / 2
Earnings
- Thu · After close PEP — PepsiCoEPS est $2.19 (+3% YoY) · Rev est $24.0B (+5% YoY) High
- Tue, Jul 14 · After close JPM — JPMorgan ChaseEPS est $5.61 (+13% YoY) · Rev est $49.8B (+11% YoY) High
- Tue, Jul 14 · After close BAC — Bank of AmericaEPS est $1.11 (+25% YoY) · Rev est $30.4B (+15% YoY) High
- Tue, Jul 14 · After close GS — Goldman SachsEPS est $14 (+28% YoY) · Rev est $16.0B (+10% YoY) High
- Tue, Jul 14 · After close WFC — Wells FargoEPS est $1.73 (+12% YoY) · Rev est $21.8B (+5% YoY) High
1 / 1
08Daily Alpha
Wait. S&P at 7,537 with late-cycle signals; no broad entry edge today
Today's tape is a study in surface strength masking structural caution. Tesla and AMD each surged over 6.6%, lifting the cap-weighted S&P 500 to 7,537, but the equal-weight index barely moved (+0.04%), confirming narrow leadership rather than broad participation. The sector spread tells the same story: Consumer Cyclical led at +2.39% while Industrials shed -1.33%, a 3.7 percentage-point gap that is a classic late-cycle rotation tell. The cycle framework is firmly Late-cycle, with eight of nine indicators warm. Real yields at 2.26% on 10-year TIPS remain genuinely restrictive, and the 30-year Treasury at 4.98% is approaching a level worth watching for bond entry. Crypto sits in Fear (score 27), Bitcoin is just above its 200-week moving average at 63,028, and the $265.7M single-day ETF inflow is encouraging but the 7-day net remains negative. FOMC Minutes tomorrow add event risk. Hold cash; no broad add justified here.
24h Bias
Hold; narrow rally, event risk tomorrow
Equities
Wait for broader participation before adding
Bonds
Add small at 30Y near 5%
Commodities
Hold WTI; trim gold on strength
Crypto
Add small Bitcoin near 200-week average
Vol hedge
Hold light hedge; VIX at 15.57 is cheap