01Daily Summary

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

This Monday opens with crypto under pressure: Bitcoin sits at $63,189, just 0.5% above its 200-week moving average, while the crypto Fear and Greed index registers 24 (Extreme Fear). Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive at $223.5M over 24 hours, but the 7-day total remains deeply negative at -$970.6M, signaling the inflow is not yet a trend reversal. Friday's equity session told a split story: Apple surged 4.8% while Tesla fell 7.5%, and defensive sectors outpaced technology, consistent with a late-cycle rotation.

S&P 5000.00%NASDAQ−0.80%US10Y+4 bpWTI+2.23%Gold+1.11%BTC−0.63%ETH−0.43%DXY−0.09%VIX−2.11%

Driver:Mega-cap divergence dominated Friday: Apple +4.8%, Tesla -7.5%, Intel -5.3%; defensive sectors absorbed rotation out of technology.
Cross-asset:Equities flat at the index level (S&P 500 at 7,483), gold at $4,171.60, WTI crude +2.2%; DXY marginally softer; crypto broadly flat to slightly lower.
Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 4.97%; 2s10s spread at 31 basis points; TIPS real yield rose 5 bp to 2.25%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) at 275 bp; IPOR stablecoin rates near 3.2-3.8%.
Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 24 (Extreme Fear); equity Fear and Greed at 31.9 (Fear); VIX at 15.81, easing; Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.32; funding rates near zero.
Forward bias:US ISM Services PMI (June) due today at 14:00 UTC; a strong print with elevated prices paid would reinforce sticky-inflation concerns and pressure rate-cut expectations.

02Macro Snapshot

Stagflation risk rising

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Benchmark Rates	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Fed Ratei	3.50 – 3.75 %	unchanged	17 Jun 2026	29 Jul 2026	Current fed funds rate band of 3.50-3.75% signals cautious Fed stance.
ECB Ratei	2.25 %	+25 bp	11 Jun 2026	23 Jul 2026	ECB rate at 2.25% after June hike pressures European risk assets.
BoJ Ratei	1.00 %	+25 bp	16 Jun 2026	31 Jul 2026	BoJ rate at 1.00% keeps JPY carry trade attractive for now.
SOFRi	3.66 %	−2 bp	daily	tomorrow	SOFR at 3.66% after 2bp drop eases short-term USD funding conditions.
IPOR USDCi	3.40 %	−26 bp	real-time	—	USDC IPOR at 3.40% below SOFR indicates deleveraging in onchain USD.
IPOR WETHi	1.77 %	−1 bp	real-time	—	WETH IPOR rate at 1.77% shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei	2.22 %	—	real-time	—	ETH staking yield at 2.22% reflects steady validator demand for returns.

US Inflation	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
TruCPI-US (headline)i	1.79 %	-0.02 pp	daily	tomorrow	Truflation CPI at 1.79% runs cooler than official monthly prints.
CPI YoY (headline)i	4.2 %	+0.4 pp	10 Jun 2026	14 Jul 2026	Headline CPI at 4.2% keeps Fed cautious on inflation progress.
CPI YoY (core)i	2.9 %	+0.1 pp	10 Jun 2026	14 Jul 2026	Core CPI at 2.9% shows persistent underlying inflation pressures.
PCE YoY (headline)i	4.1 %	+0.3 pp	25 Jun 2026	30 Jul 2026	Headline PCE at 4.1% remains well above Fed's 2% target.
PCE YoY (core)i	3.4 %	+0.1 pp	25 Jun 2026	30 Jul 2026	Core PCE at 3.4% stays sticky far above the 2% target.
PPI YoY (headline)i	6.4 %	+0.8 pp	11 Jun 2026	15 Jul 2026	PPI at 6.4% signals upstream inflation still elevated versus CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i	4.9 %	+0.0 pp	11 Jun 2026	15 Jul 2026	Core PPI at 4.9% indicates persistent producer price pressures.

Euro Area Inflationi	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Euro Area	3.1 %	+0.1 pp	17 Jun 2026	17 Jul 2026	Euro area HICP at 3.1% keeps ECB on restrictive policy path.
Romania	9.7 %	+0.2 pp	17 Jun 2026	17 Jul 2026	Romania's HICP at 9.7% remains the EU's hottest due to fiscal factors.
Bulgaria	6.3 %	+0.3 pp	17 Jun 2026	17 Jul 2026	Bulgaria's HICP at 6.3% reflects ongoing euro convergence challenges.
Poland	3.3 %	−0.0 pp	17 Jun 2026	17 Jul 2026	Poland's HICP at 3.3% sits above target, supporting hawkish central bank stance.
Germany	2.7 %	−0.2 pp	17 Jun 2026	17 Jul 2026	Germany's HICP at 2.7% anchors euro-area inflation near ECB target.
France	2.8 %	+0.3 pp	17 Jun 2026	17 Jul 2026	France's HICP at 2.8% stays close to ECB 2% target.

Labor	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m)	158.98 M jobs	+57 k	2 Jul 2026	7 Aug 2026	NFP rise of 57k points to softening labor market conditions.
Unemployment Ratei	4.2 %	−0.1 pp	2 Jul 2026	7 Aug 2026	Unemployment at 4.2% indicates rising slack in the labor market.

Activity	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY)	+1.7 %	+0.3 pp	15 Jun 2026	17 Jul 2026	Industrial production up 1.7% YoY
Retail Salesi (m/m)	+1.0 %	+0.7 pp	17 Jun 2026	16 Jul 2026	Retail sales up 1.0% m/m show resilient consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi	53.3	+0.6	June 2026	—
ISM Services PMIi	54.5	+0.9	May 2026	—

Yield Curve	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi	31 bp	—	daily	tomorrow	Positive curve. Recession odds receding.

Sentiment	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity)	32 (Fear)	+0	daily	tomorrow
Crypto Fear & Greedi	24 (Extreme Fear)	+1	daily	tomorrow
News Sentimenti	−6 (Fear)	−3	every 30 min	—

03News Sentiment

Fear

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −24 to +58 · current −6 (Fear) · −3 24h

7 days ago today

Direction

bull 51% bear 49% ± 20% uncertainty

Coverage

macro 47% crypto 44% mixed 9%

What's driving today's news sentiment Top 1 · sorted by impact

+27 Bullish short-term

Indian equities rise early on improving earnings outlook and supportive liquidity expectations

Indian shares edged higher on expectations of better earnings and a more supportive global liquidity backdrop, indicating improved risk appetite in capital markets.

nasdaq.comconf 75% Market-Wide

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bearish

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's tech cohort closed deeply split, with only 3 of 9 names finishing higher. Apple led decisively at +4.84%, while Microsoft added a modest +1.62% and Amazon eked out +0.40%. The rest of the cohort sold off hard: Tesla dropped 7.49%, Intel fell 5.25%, Meta Platforms shed 4.90%, and Advanced Micro Devices lost 4.26%, with Nvidia off 1.39% and Alphabet fractionally lower.

AAPLApple

$308.63+4.84%

1D Range $293.68 — $309.42

1M Range $275.15 — $311.23

P/E TTMi37.0 P/E Fwdi32.0 50-DMAi+5.1% 200-DMAi+14.0% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+13.9% % from ATHi−2.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.78

MSFTMicrosoft

$390.49+1.62%

1D Range $383.70 — $392.19

1M Range $352.83 — $428.05

P/E TTMi23.2 P/E Fwdi20.1 50-DMAi−4.2% 200-DMAi−12.3% RSI(14)i50 YTDi−17.4% % from ATHi−29.7% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.46

GOOGLAlphabet

$359.91−0.36%

1D Range $353.42 — $364.20

1M Range $337.39 — $373.25

P/E TTMi27.2 P/E Fwdi24.5 50-DMAi−3.0% 200-DMAi+13.8% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+14.2% % from ATHi−11.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.51

AMZNAmazon

$242.67+0.40%

1D Range $241.08 — $246.72

1M Range $227.01 — $253.79

P/E TTMi28.7 P/E Fwdi24.0 50-DMAi−5.0% 200-DMAi+4.2% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+7.1% % from ATHi−12.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.64

NVDANVIDIA

$194.83−1.39%

1D Range $192.35 — $200.06

1M Range $192.53 — $218.66

P/E TTMi29.6 P/E Fwdi21.7 50-DMAi−7.1% 200-DMAi+2.0% RSI(14)i41 YTDi+3.2% % from ATHi−17.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.11

METAMeta Platforms

$582.90−4.90%

1D Range $580.42 — $610.00

1M Range $542.87 — $627.57

P/E TTMi20.9 P/E Fwdi16.6 50-DMAi−3.7% 200-DMAi−9.8% RSI(14)i50 YTDi−10.4% % from ATHi−26.8% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.17

TSLATesla

$393.45−7.49%

1D Range $389.31 — $432.35

1M Range $375.12 — $425.30

P/E TTMi328.3 P/E Fwdi161.8 50-DMAi−3.2% 200-DMAi−6.0% RSI(14)i47 YTDi−10.2% % from ATHi−21.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.51

INTCIntel

$120.35−5.25%

1D Range $117.63 — $130.74

1M Range $99.17 — $140.94

P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi76.5 50-DMAi+6.1% 200-DMAi+99.5% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+205.6% % from ATHi−15.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.62

AMDAMD

$517.82−4.26%

1D Range $506.00 — $547.65

1M Range $452.40 — $580.91

P/E TTMi168.6 P/E Fwdi39.0 50-DMAi+12.5% 200-DMAi+86.1% RSI(14)i52 YTDi+131.7% % from ATHi−11.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.42

04.2Recent IPOs

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

SPCXSpaceX

IPO'd 12 Jun 2026

$162.00+2.83%

1D Range $155.88 — $162.16

1M Range $153.00 — $201.80

Mkt Capi$2.12T IPO-day Vali$2.10T IPO-to-Datei+0.7% Floati6.1B · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a P/E FwdiFY28E · 331x % from ATHi−28.2%

04.3Indices

Mixedi

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's session was a tale of divergence across US benchmarks: the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.14% while the Nasdaq slid 0.80%, the Russell 2000 dipped 0.55%, and the S&P 500 closed flat. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was the standout laggard, off 5.57%, consistent with the broad chip-sector weakness visible in the tech cohort. Volatility eased, with the VIX settling at 15.81 (-2.11%) and the MOVE index falling 4.61%, suggesting bond markets also calmed into the long weekend. Notably, the breadth picture is inverted from what a narrow-leadership story would imply: the equal-weight RSP is outpacing the cap-weighted S&P 500 by 2.32 percentage points YTD (+11.43% vs +9.11%), meaning the average S&P 500 constituent is actually carrying more of the year's gain than the Mag7 concentration would suggest. World markets were mixed, with the Hang Seng up 0.78% and FTSE marginally higher, while emerging markets (EEM) slipped 1.17%.

US Equity Benchmarks

SPXS&P 500

7,483.24+0.00%

1D Range 7,427.55 — 7,540.75

1M Range 7,267.00 — 7,584.32

50-DMAi+1.2% 200-DMAi+7.8% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+9.1% % from ATHi−1.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.80

IXICNasdaq Comp.

25,832.67−0.80%

1D Range 25,630.51 — 26,261.09

1M Range 25,169.50 — 26,853.98

50-DMAi−0.3% 200-DMAi+9.0% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+11.2% % from ATHi−4.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.66

DJIDow Jones Ind.

52,900.07+1.14%

1D Range 52,395.22 — 52,903.85

1M Range 49,918.79 — 52,900.07

50-DMAi+4.6% 200-DMAi+9.2% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+9.3% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+1.74

RUTRussell 2000

2,996.11−0.55%

1D Range 2,971.17 — 3,039.84

1M Range 2,833.50 — 3,024.37

50-DMAi+3.9% 200-DMAi+14.1% RSI(14)i59 YTDi+19.5% % from ATHi−1.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.87

SOXXSemiconductors

566.32−5.57%

1D Range 554.91 — 608.11

1M Range 539.77 — 655.01

50-DMAi+3.8% 200-DMAi+50.5% RSI(14)i47 YTDi+80.5% % from ATHi−13.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.51

Risk & Breadth Gauges

RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt

214.91+0.70%

1D Range 213.29 — 215.61

1M Range 206.53 — 214.91

50-DMAi+3.9% 200-DMAi+9.0% RSI(14)i65 YTDi+11.4% vs SPX YTDi+2.3pp Cap-weight sharei-26%

VIXiVolatility Idx

15.81−2.11%

1D Range 15.75 — 16.01

1M Range 15.40 — 22.22

50-DMAi−10.3% 200-DMAi−15.3% RSI(14)i44 YTDi+11.3%

MOVEiMOVE Index

65.40−4.61%

5D Range 65.40 — 71.96

1M Range 65.39 — 77.03

50-DMAi−9.3% 200-DMAi−9.6% RSI(14)i42 YTDi+4.9%

DXYTrade-Wt. USD

114.21−0.09%

5D Range 113.96 — 114.67

1M Range 111.38 — 114.67

50-DMAi+2.2% 200-DMAi+2.3% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+2.7%

World Markets

FTSEFTSE 100

10,679.03+0.25%

1D Range 10,604.25 — 10,701.32

1M Range 10,227.33 — 10,679.03

50-DMAi+2.8% 200-DMAi+5.9% RSI(14)i66 YTDi+7.3% % from ATHi−2.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.71

N225Nikkei 225

69,491.94−0.36%

1D Range 68,904.41 — 70,384.59

1M Range 64,024.60 — 72,366.34

50-DMAi+6.6% 200-DMAi+26.4% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+34.1% % from ATHi−4.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.38

HSIHang Seng

23,531.83+0.78%

1D Range 23,229.38 — 23,686.56

1M Range 22,671.87 — 25,253.41

50-DMAi−6.3% 200-DMAi−9.1% RSI(14)i42 YTDi−10.6% % from ATHi−16.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.18

Global Equity Baskets

URTHMSCI World

202.65+0.28%

1D Range 201.32 — 204.25

1M Range 197.36 — 205.67

50-DMAi+1.1% 200-DMAi+7.1% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+8.7% % from ATHi−1.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.61

EEMMSCI Emerging

65.70−1.17%

1D Range 64.80 — 67.19

1M Range 64.59 — 71.21

50-DMAi−1.5% 200-DMAi+11.0% RSI(14)i44 YTDi+16.8% % from ATHi−7.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.60

Valuations

CAPE 10iShiller P/E

41.6Overvalued

−0.13% today

Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−5.9%

Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)

32.1Overvalued

−0.13% today

Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)

Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP

218.1Overvalued

Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.6%

Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst

Healthcare+2.62%

Staples+2.34%

Materials+1.75%

Utilities+0.97%

Industrials+0.15%

Financials−0.62%

Telecom−1.33%

Energy−1.49%

Real Estate−2.25%

Discretionary−2.90%

Tech−2.95%

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

Offered

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Treasuries sold off across the curve at Friday's close, with the 10-year yield rising 4 basis points to 4.48% and the 30-year pushing up 6 bp to 4.97%, steepening the 2s10s spread to +31 bp. The move was driven almost entirely by real rates: the 10-year TIPS real yield climbed 5 bp to 2.25% while the 10-year breakeven held flat at 2.23%, meaning the selloff reflects tighter real financing conditions rather than a fresh inflation scare. Credit spreads were essentially unchanged, with high-yield OAS at 275 bp (+1 bp) and investment-grade OAS at 75 bp (-1 bp), leaving no meaningful stress signal in corporate credit.

US2YiTreasury 2Y

4.17%+3 bp

5D Range 4.07 — 4.17

1M Range 4.05 — 4.24

5-day Δ+6 bp YTD Δ+70 bp

US10YiTreasury 10Y

4.48%+4 bp

5D Range 4.38 — 4.48

1M Range 4.38 — 4.56

10–2 spread+31 bp YTD Δ+29 bp

US30YiTreasury 30Y

4.97%+6 bp

5D Range 4.86 — 4.97

1M Range 4.86 — 5.03

5-day Δ+11 bp YTD Δ+11 bp

Fiscal

US Debt & Servicing

Total Public Debti

$39.38T -$14.1B (1d)

+8.7% YoY

Annual Interest (gross)i

$1.32T +10.7% YoY

gross · avg rate 3.35%

Rate & Rollover Risk

Wtd Avg Rate on Debti

3.35% +0.06pp YoY

on total interest-bearing debt

Maturing < 1 Yeari

25.9%

~$10.21T · refinancing-risk gauge

Macro Bond

Real Rates & Credit

Real Rates & Inflation Expectations

10Y TIPS Reali

2.25% +5 bp

10Y nominal − inflation expectations

10Y Breakeveni

2.23% 0 bp

market-implied 10Y CPI

Credit Spreads

HY OASi

2.75% +1 bp

ICE BofA US HY

IG OASi

0.75% −1 bp

tight · late-cycle

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Steady

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Truflation's daily year-over-year read sits at 1.79%, essentially steady over the past month (-0.05 pp) and down 0.16 pp over the past year, pointing to continued disinflation in real-time data. That stands 2.46 percentage points below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2%, a gap that reflects the lagged nature of the monthly survey. Transport is the top upside contributor, adding 0.62 pp to the headline.

1.79%

Daily −0.02 pp

1-mo −0.05 pp

1-yr −0.16 pp

Daily Data By

About the number

Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.

Truflation data as of 2026-07-05

vs BLS CPI official 4.2% (May 2026, monthly · lagged) −2.46 ppbelow official print next BLS CPI: 14 Jul 2026

Index Components

12 basket categories · sorted by weight

Category	Inflation (YoY)i	Contributioni	Trend (1-mo)i
Housing 23.1% of basket	+0.13%	+0.03 pp	Heating +0.33 pp
Transport 19.8% of basket	+3.14%	+0.62 pp	Cooling −1.50 pp
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages 15.2% of basket	+1.34%	+0.20 pp	Heating +1.28 pp
Health 8.8% of basket	+0.76%	+0.07 pp	Cooling −0.11 pp
Household Durables & Daily Use Items 7.1% of basket	+2.52%	+0.18 pp	Cooling −1.61 pp
Utilities 6.0% of basket	+2.83%	+0.17 pp	Heating +0.31 pp
Recreation & Culture 5.5% of basket	+2.21%	+0.12 pp	Cooling −0.13 pp
Clothing & Footwear 3.8% of basket	+6.37%	+0.24 pp	Heating +0.68 pp
Other 3.4% of basket	+3.15%	+0.11 pp	Heating +0.72 pp
Communications 3.3% of basket	+0.10%	0.00 pp	Heating +1.83 pp
Education 2.3% of basket	+3.24%	+0.08 pp	Heating +0.70 pp
Alcohol & Tobacco 1.8% of basket	+2.64%	+0.05 pp	Cooling −1.19 pp

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Bid

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

The JGB curve steepened further at Friday's close, with the 10-year yield easing 1 bp to 2.77% while the 30-year held at 3.94%, leaving the 2s10s spread at a wide +138 bp. The 2-year JGB at 1.39% sits well above the Bank of Japan's 1.00% policy rate, reflecting market pricing of further normalization and keeping the cost of yen-funded carry trades elevated relative to recent history.

JP2YiJGB 2Y

1.39%−0 bp

5D Range 1.38 — 1.41

1M Range 1.38 — 1.43

5-day Δ−2 bp YTD Δ+20 bp

JP10YiJGB 10Y

2.77%−1 bp

5D Range 2.64 — 2.78

1M Range 2.59 — 2.78

10–2 spread+138 bp YTD Δ+66 bp

JP30YiJGB 30Y

3.94%+0 bp

5D Range 3.79 — 3.94

1M Range 3.71 — 3.94

5-day Δ+18 bp YTD Δ+55 bp

04.7Commodities

Bullish

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy staged a broad recovery at Friday's close, with WTI crude, Brent, and natural gas each gaining roughly 2% across the board. Precious metals also advanced, with Gold (XAU) adding 1.11% to $4,171.60 and Silver rising 1.97% to $62.265, extending their recent bid.

CLWTI Crude

$71.87+2.23%

5D Range $70.30 — $74.62

1M Range $70.30 — $99.76

50-DMAi−24.2% 200-DMAi−4.3% RSI(14)i29 YTDi+25.6%

COBrent

$71.59+2.04%

5D Range $70.16 — $75.69

1M Range $70.16 — $101.69

50-DMAi−28.0% 200-DMAi−11.8% RSI(14)i27 YTDi+15.5%

NGNatural Gas

$3.33+2.15%

5D Range $3.15 — $3.33

1M Range $2.97 — $3.34

50-DMAi+12.2% 200-DMAi−10.4% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+18.1%

XAUGold

$4,171.60+1.11%

5D Range $4,133.80 — $4,215.50

1M Range $4,008.80 — $4,381.40

50-DMAi−4.9% 200-DMAi−9.2% RSI(14)i46 YTDi−4.9%

XAGSilver

$62.27+1.97%

5D Range $61.38 — $63.73

1M Range $58.09 — $70.77

50-DMAi−13.2% 200-DMAi−10.0% RSI(14)i43 YTDi−14.5%

04.8Crypto Assets

Mixed

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Bitcoin is currently trading at $63,189.27 (-0.63% over 24 hours), Ethereum at $1,776.51 (-0.43%), and Solana at $80.70 (-0.91%), with individual asset prices drifting lower even as total crypto market cap is up 0.71% over the same window - a divergence likely reflecting altcoin breadth. The crypto Fear and Greed index sits deep in Extreme Fear at 24, a notable contrast to the positive ETF flow backdrop: spot BTC ETFs took in $224M and ETH ETFs $29M in the latest daily read. BTC dominance holds at 55.8%, and perpetual funding rates remain positive (BTC at +7.94% APR, ETH at +3.84% APR), indicating longs are still paying to hold leveraged exposure despite the fearful sentiment. DeFi TVL edged up 0.36% over 24 hours, suggesting on-chain activity is not deteriorating materially.

BTCBitcoin

$63,189.27−0.63%

1D Range $63,122.16 — $63,841.71

1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,276.80

50-DMAi−5.8% 200-DMAi−15.6% 200-WMAi($62,865.74) +0.5% RSI(14)i50 % from ATHi−49.8% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.43

ETHEthereum

$1,776.51−0.43%

1D Range $1,773.58 — $1,795.13

1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,795.01

50-DMAi−2.2% 200-DMAi−21.7% 200-WMAi($2,472.50) −28.1% RSI(14)i56 % from ATHi−63.6% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.35

SOLSolana

$80.70−0.91%

1D Range $80.47 — $82.11

1M Range $63.13 — $82.28

50-DMAi+7.0% 200-DMAi−13.7% 200-WMAi($107.35) −24.8% RSI(14)i62 % from ATHi−72.5% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.40

ENAEthena

$0.0788+1.71%

1D Range $0.0770 — $0.0812

1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0955

50-DMAi−12.4% 200-DMAi−39.4% RSI(14)i45 % from ATHi−94.8% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.89

HYPEHyperliquid

$71.57+0.56%

1D Range $71.18 — $72.45

1M Range $53.28 — $73.57

50-DMAi+14.5% 200-DMAi+76.4% RSI(14)i60 % from ATHi−4.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.09

PUMPPump.fun

$0.001663+8.57%

1D Range $0.001511 — $0.001678

1M Range $0.001197 — $0.001663

50-DMAi+3.9% 200-DMAi−12.5% RSI(14)i58 % from ATHi−80.7% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.29

Crypto Market

Macro Indicators

Market Caps & Dominance

BTC Mcapi

$1.26T −0.63%

55.8% of total

ETH Mcap

$214.4B −0.43%

9.4% of total

Stablecoin Mcap

$310.1B +0.07%

circulating supply

Total Crypto Mcap

$2.27T +0.71%

global market cap

Trading Volumes (24h)

CEX Volume (spot)

$54.8B +6.65%

24h · CoinGecko aggregate

DEX Volume (spot)

$4.7B −7.68%

24h · DefiLlama all chains

CEX Volume (perp)

$151.7B +8.52%

24h · derivatives exchanges

Hyperliquid (perp)

$2.5B −2.21%

24h · 230+ markets

DeFi Activity

Global DeFi TVL

$74.6B +0.36%

all chains

Lending TVL

$38.9B +1.24%

money markets

DEX TVL

$11.7B +0.07%

liquidity pools

ETH Staking APR

2.22%

Lido stETH base rate

Leverage & Sentiment

BTC Fundingi

+7.94% APR longs pay

8h · Binance perp

ETH Fundingi

+3.84% APR longs pay

8h · Binance perp

BTC L/S Ratioi

1.32 large traders long

1.32× longs vs shorts

Crypto F&Gi

24 Extreme Fear

Δ +1 vs yesterday · 0-100

IPOR Rates

USDCi

3.40% −0.26 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.49%

USDTi

3.15% −0.51 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.14%

DAIi

3.75% +0.09 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.75%

WETHi

1.77% −0.01 pp vs avg

24h avg 1.78%

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Accumulating

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Corporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,283,471 BTC (~$81.1B, 6.11% of supply), 7,709,571 ETH (~$13.7B, 6.39% of supply), and 19,021,279 SOL (~$1.54B, 3.27% of supply) held across tracked entities. The latest daily ETF flows are constructive - BTC +$224M, ETH +$29M, SOL +$2M - but the 7-day picture tells a different story: BTC spot ETFs have seen net outflows of $971M over the past week and ETH $26M, with only SOL posting a modest 7-day inflow of $8M.

Asset	Total Held	USD Value	% of Supply	Top Public Holders
₿ Bitcoin BTC	1.28 M BTC	$81.1 B	6.11%	Strategy 847k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ Ethereum ETH	7.71 M ETH	$13.7 B	6.39%	BitMine Immersion 5.70M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎ Solana SOL	19.02 M SOL	$1.5 B	3.27%	Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M

Public-company treasuries3 assets

₿BitcoinBTC

$81.1 B

1.28 M BTC

% of supply6.11%

Top public holdersStrategy 847k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k

ΞEthereumETH

$13.7 B

7.71 M ETH

% of supply6.39%

Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.70M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k

◎SolanaSOL

$1.5 B

19.02 M SOL

% of supply3.27%

Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M

Spot ETF Flows

Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP

BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…

AUM

$77.4 B

24h Flow+$224 M

7-day Flow−$971 M

YTD Flowi−$5.46 B

ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…

AUM

$9.2 B

24h Flow+$29 M

7-day Flow−$26 M

YTD Flowi−$1.43 B

SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…

AUM

$760.3 M

24h Flow+$2 M

7-day Flow+$8 M

YTD Flowi−$25 M

04.10Smart Money Positioning

Trimming

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

The biggest 24-hour add was Worldcoin (WLD) at +$587K across 21 wallets, bringing the position to $83.0M. The biggest trim was Litentry/Heima (LIT) at -$1.30M, though it remains the second-largest holding at $164.1M. Overall smart-money positioning contracted by a net $961K over the past 24 hours.

Total tracked$848.4M

Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist

Net change 24h-$961K

Data by

Paid per call x402by

Largest holdings10 tokens · $845.9M held

#	Token · what it is	Held · wallets	Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot.	Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago.	Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago.	Mkt cap
1	AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)	$176.6M 3 wallets	-$89K	-$230K	building	$4.06B
2	LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation	$164.1M 4 wallets	-$1.30M	+$717K	building	$671.3M
3	UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)	$128.7M 26 wallets	-$157K	-$452K	building	$1.96B
4	ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)	$97.1M 13 wallets	+$52K	-$134K	building	$1.60B
5	BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange	$96.6M 4 wallets	+$11K	-$21K	building	$1.19B
6	WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era	$83.0M 21 wallets	+$587K	-$113K	building	$1.49B
7	WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol	$43.6M 1 wallet	-$41K	-$209K	building	$1.85B
8	AXS_OLDEthereum	$19.9M 18 wallets	+$0	building	building	$410.1M
9	USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund	$19.4M 6 wallets	+$233	-$12K	building	$867.3M
10	MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer	$17.0M 5 wallets	-$26K	+$848K	building	$1.25B

1AETHWETHEthereum

$176.6M

3 wallets

Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)

24h-$89K 7d-$230K

2LITEthereum

$164.1M

4 wallets

Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation

24h-$1.30M 7d+$717K

3UNIEthereum

$128.7M

26 wallets

Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)

24h-$157K 7d-$452K

4ONDOEthereum

$97.1M

13 wallets

Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)

24h+$52K 7d-$134K

5BGBEthereum

$96.6M

4 wallets

Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange

24h+$11K 7d-$21K

6WLDEthereum

$83.0M

21 wallets

Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era

24h+$587K 7d-$113K

7WLFIEthereum

$43.6M

1 wallet

World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol

24h-$41K 7d-$209K

8AXS_OLDEthereum

$19.9M

18 wallets

24h+$0 7dbuilding

9USTBEthereum

$19.4M

6 wallets

Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund

24h+$233 7d-$12K

10MORPHOEthereum

$17.0M

5 wallets

Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer

24h-$26K 7d+$848K

Small-cap watch5 tokens · $2.5M held

#	Token · what it is	Held · wallets	Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot.	Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago.	Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago.	Mkt cap
1	PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin	$1.4M 11 wallets	-$4K	-$3K	building	$424.0M
2	USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin	$614.0K 8 wallets	-$687	-$10K	building	$89.9M
3	PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token	$175.0K 11 wallets	-$3K	-$856K	building	$675.8M
4	DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products	$155.8K 10 wallets	-$226	-$135	building	$110.1M
5	PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps	$136.8K 2 wallets	-$202	-$150	building	$4.5M

1PENGUSolana

$1.4M

11 wallets

Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin

24h-$4K 7d-$3K

2USELESSSolana

$614.0K

8 wallets

Useless Coin: Solana memecoin

24h-$687 7d-$10K

3PUMPSolana

$175.0K

11 wallets

Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token

24h-$3K 7d-$856K

4DRVEthereum

$155.8K

10 wallets

Derive: on-chain options and structured products

24h-$226 7d-$135

5PEARArbitrum

$136.8K

2 wallets

Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps

24h-$202 7d-$150

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Asset	Last	Trendi	Supporti	Resistancei	RSIi	RSI Status	Signal
SPX S&P 500	7,483.24	Bullish	7,394.74	7,540.75	55	Neutral	Buyconf 75%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp.	25,832.67	Sideways	23,702.59	25,912.18	49	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
DXY Dollar Index	114.21	USD ↑	111.78	114.67	68	Neutral	Sellconf 65%
VIX Volatility	15.81	Suppressed	15.75	17.63	44	Neutral	Hedgeconf 70%
US10Y US 10Y Yield	4.48%	Yields ↑	4.46%	4.48%	52	Neutral	Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude	$71.87	Bearish	$70.30	$75.08	29	Oversold	Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold	$4,172	Bearish	$4,134	$4,387	46	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin	$63,189	Bearish	$63,122	$67,045	50	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
ETH Ethereum	$1,777	Bearish	$1,774	$1,816	56	Neutral	Sellconf 75%

06Key Events

Next 7 days

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Today's calendar is front-loaded with three simultaneous ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing PMI and Prices readings at 14:00 UTC, providing the first major macro data point of the week for markets reopening after the US holiday. FOMC Minutes drop Wednesday at 18:00, and Existing Home Sales follow Thursday, with PepsiCo (PEP) earnings on Thursday rounding out the week's scheduled catalysts.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Today
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Services PMI (Jun)Est: 54.20 · prev 54.50 High
Wed
18:00 UTC · 20:00 CEST FOMC Minutes High
Thu
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST Existing Home Sales (Jun)Est: 4.20 M · prev 4.17 M High
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/04)Est: 219 K · prev 215 K Medium
Thu
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST Existing Home Sales MoM (Jun)Est: -2.50 % · prev 3.20 % Medium
Today
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Services Employment (Jun)Est: 48.60 · prev 47.90 Low
Today
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Services Business Activity (Jun)Est: 57.20 · prev 57.70 Low
Today
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Services New Orders (Jun)Est: 57 · prev 57.30 Low
Today
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Services Prices (Jun)Est: 69 · prev 71.30 Low

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

Thu · After close PEP — PepsiCoEPS est $2.19 (+3% YoY) · Rev est $24.0B (+5% YoY) High

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Late-cyclei

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

A reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018), reassessed about every two weeks.

Today's read

Economy, Outlook, Lenders, Capital Markets, Capital, Terms, Interest Rates, and Investors all lean warm, reflecting elevated valuations (CAPE 10 at 41.39, Trailing P/E at 31.98), strong manufacturing and services PMIs (54.0 and 54.5), and persistent above-target inflation (4.25% headline CPI). Only Yield Spreads turn cold, with HY OAS at 280 bp and IG OAS at 76 bp signaling credit caution amid otherwise buoyant conditions.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 25 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Refreshed 6 Jul 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Add selectively. Crypto fear extreme; equities need rotation clarity first

This is a Monday open with crypto trading in real time and Friday's equity session as the backdrop. The most actionable signal right now is the Crypto Fear and Greed index at 24 (Extreme Fear), with Bitcoin sitting just above its 200-week moving average at 63,189 and daily ETF inflows of 223.5 million dollars reversing a seven-day outflow streak of 970.6 million dollars. That divergence - fear in sentiment, fresh institutional buying - is a classic asymmetric setup. Per beincrypto.com, short liquidations near 64,000 dollars are adding fuel. Funding rates are near zero, removing crowded-long risk. On equities, Friday's tape told a more cautious story: Healthcare gained 2.62% while Technology shed 2.95%, a 5.57-point spread signaling late-cycle defensive rotation. Tesla fell 7.49% and Intel dropped 5.25%. The cycle is Late-cycle, valuations remain stretched, and the 10-year real yield at 2.25% keeps equities expensive. Add crypto selectively; hold equities and wait for rotation to stabilize.

24h Bias

Lean long crypto; hold equities flat

Equities

Hold; avoid chasing tech on weakness

Bonds

Add small on long end at 4.97%

Commodities

Hold gold; add small on WTI dip

Crypto

Add Bitcoin near 200-week average

Vol hedge

Hold light hedge; VIX at 15.81 is cheap

Fear Grips Crypto While Equities Rotate Defensively

01Daily Summary

02Macro Snapshot

03News Sentiment

04.1Tech Equitiesi

04.2Recent IPOs

04.3Indices

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Index Components

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

04.7Commodities

04.8Crypto Assets

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

04.10Smart Money Positioning

05Technical Dashboard

06Key Events

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

08Daily Alpha

Add selectively. Crypto fear extreme; equities need rotation clarity first