Daily Market Report

Mega-Cap Divergence Masks Defensive Rotation

Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST

01Daily Summary

Mixed Signals
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Apple surged 4.84% while Tesla shed 7.49% and Intel fell 5.25%, fracturing the large-cap technology narrative and pushing capital toward Healthcare and Consumer Defensive. Gold at $4,188.20 and silver up 2.96% signal a parallel flight to hard assets, while Bitcoin holds near $61,366 with the crypto Fear and Greed index at 21 (Extreme Fear) - a stark contrast to the $223.5 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows today. The S&P 500 is effectively flat at 61,366, with the equal-weight index outperforming, suggesting breadth rather than mega-cap momentum is carrying equities.

S&P 5000.00%NASDAQ−0.80%US10Y+4 bpWTI+2.23%Gold+1.51%BTC−0.21%ETH+0.18%DXY−0.09%VIX−2.65%

02Macro Snapshot

Stagflation risk rising
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Benchmark Rates Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Fed Ratei 3.50 – 3.75 % unchanged 17 Jun 2026 29 Jul 2026 Fed funds at 3.50-3.75% signals steady policy for risk assets.
ECB Ratei 2.25 % +25 bp 11 Jun 2026 23 Jul 2026 ECB hike to 2.25% pressures European risk assets.
BoJ Ratei 1.00 % +25 bp 16 Jun 2026 31 Jul 2026 BoJ rate at 1.00% keeps JPY carry trade attractive.
SOFRi 3.66 % −2 bp daily tomorrow SOFR at 3.66% falling two basis points loosens USD funding.
IPOR USDCi 3.43 % −23 bp real-time — USDC IPOR at 3.43% below SOFR signals deleveraging.
IPOR WETHi 1.77 % +0 bp real-time — WETH IPOR at 1.77% shows cooling onchain ETH leverage.
ETH Ratei 2.32 % — real-time — ETH staking yield at 2.32% reflects validator demand.
US Inflation Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
TruCPI-US (headline)i 1.80 % +0.04 pp daily tomorrow Truflation CPI at 1.80% runs cooler than official print.
CPI YoY (headline)i 4.2 % +0.4 pp 10 Jun 2026 14 Jul 2026 Headline CPI at 4.2% keeps Fed cautious on cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i 2.9 % +0.1 pp 10 Jun 2026 14 Jul 2026 Core CPI at 2.9% shows persistent inflation stickiness.
PCE YoY (headline)i 4.1 % +0.3 pp 25 Jun 2026 30 Jul 2026 PCE at 4.1% runs above Fed's 2% target.
PCE YoY (core)i 3.4 % +0.1 pp 25 Jun 2026 30 Jul 2026 Core PCE at 3.4% remains sticky above 2% target.
PPI YoY (headline)i 6.4 % +0.8 pp 11 Jun 2026 15 Jul 2026 PPI at 6.4% signals upstream inflation cooling toward CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i 4.9 % +0.0 pp 11 Jun 2026 15 Jul 2026 Core PPI at 4.9% indicates persistent upstream price pressures.
Euro Area Inflationi Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Euro Area 3.1 % +0.1 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Euro area HICP at 3.1% exceeds ECB 2% target.
Romania 9.7 % +0.2 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Romania's HICP at 9.7% reflects fiscal tightening effects.
Bulgaria 6.3 % +0.3 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Bulgaria's HICP at 6.3% aligns with euro convergence path.
Poland 3.3 % −0.0 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Poland's HICP at 3.3% prompts central bank caution.
Germany 2.7 % −0.2 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Germany's HICP at 2.7% anchors euro area inflation.
France 2.8 % +0.3 pp 17 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 France's HICP at 2.8% sits above ECB target.
Labor Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) 158.98 M jobs +57 k 2 Jul 2026 7 Aug 2026 NFP at +57k indicates labor market cooling.
Unemployment Ratei 4.2 % −0.1 pp 2 Jul 2026 7 Aug 2026 Unemployment at 4.2% signals rising labor market slack.
Activity Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY) +1.7 % +0.3 pp 15 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Industrial production up 1.7% YoY reflects moderate activity.
Retail Salesi (m/m) +1.0 % +0.7 pp 17 Jun 2026 16 Jul 2026 Retail sales up 1.0% m/m shows resilient consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi 53.3 +0.6 June 2026 — ISM manufacturing at 53.3 signals factory sector expansion.
ISM Services PMIi 54.5 +0.9 May 2026 — ISM services at 54.5 indicates services expansion.
Yield Curve Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi 31 bp — daily tomorrow Positive curve. Recession odds receding.
Sentiment Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) 32 (Fear) +0 daily tomorrow
Crypto Fear & Greedi 21 (Extreme Fear) +2 daily tomorrow
News Sentimenti +20 (Greed) +6 every 30 min —

03News Sentiment

Greed
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −30 to +35 · current +20 (Greed) · +6 24h
7 days ago today
Direction
bull 74% bear 26% ± 15% uncertainty
Coverage
macro 48% crypto 28% mixed 24%
What's driving today's news sentiment Top 1 · sorted by impact
+38 Bullish short-term
Indian Shares Rise as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Ease on Weak U.S. Jobs Data
Indian equities gained as weak U.S. jobs data boosted expectations of the Fed holding rates steady this month and possibly September, easing monetary tightening concerns.
nasdaq.comconf 85% Market-WideBTCETH

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bearish
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Tech is sharply bifurcated today: Apple leads with a nearly 5% gain and Microsoft adds 1.6%, but the rest of the cohort is under pressure, with only 3 of 9 names in the green. Tesla is the deepest laggard at -7.49%, followed by Meta Platforms at -4.90% and Intel at -5.25%, making this a story of single-stock dispersion rather than a sector-wide move.

AAPLApple
$308.63+4.84%
1D Range $293.68 — $309.42
1M Range $275.15 — $311.23
P/E TTMi37.0 P/E Fwdi32.0 50-DMAi+5.1% 200-DMAi+14.0% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+13.9% % from ATHi−2.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.80
MSFTMicrosoft
$390.49+1.62%
1D Range $383.70 — $392.19
1M Range $352.83 — $428.05
P/E TTMi23.2 P/E Fwdi20.1 50-DMAi−4.2% 200-DMAi−12.3% RSI(14)i50 YTDi−17.4% % from ATHi−29.7% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.43
GOOGLAlphabet
$359.91−0.36%
1D Range $353.42 — $364.20
1M Range $337.39 — $373.25
P/E TTMi27.2 P/E Fwdi25.3 50-DMAi−3.0% 200-DMAi+13.8% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+14.2% % from ATHi−11.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.45
AMZNAmazon
$242.67+0.40%
1D Range $241.08 — $246.72
1M Range $227.01 — $253.79
P/E TTMi28.7 P/E Fwdi27.5 50-DMAi−5.0% 200-DMAi+4.2% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+7.1% % from ATHi−12.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.65
NVDANVIDIA
$194.83−1.39%
1D Range $192.35 — $200.06
1M Range $192.53 — $218.66
P/E TTMi29.6 P/E Fwdi21.7 50-DMAi−7.1% 200-DMAi+2.0% RSI(14)i41 YTDi+3.2% % from ATHi−17.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.06
METAMeta Platforms
$582.90−4.90%
1D Range $580.42 — $610.00
1M Range $542.87 — $627.57
P/E TTMi20.9 P/E Fwdi17.7 50-DMAi−3.7% 200-DMAi−9.8% RSI(14)i50 YTDi−10.4% % from ATHi−26.8% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.07
TSLATesla
$393.45−7.49%
1D Range $389.31 — $432.35
1M Range $375.12 — $425.30
P/E TTMi328.3 P/E Fwdi207.8 50-DMAi−3.2% 200-DMAi−6.0% RSI(14)i47 YTDi−10.2% % from ATHi−21.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.42
INTCIntel
$120.35−5.25%
1D Range $117.63 — $130.74
1M Range $99.17 — $140.94
P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi76.8 50-DMAi+6.1% 200-DMAi+99.5% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+205.6% % from ATHi−15.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.57
AMDAMD
$517.82−4.26%
1D Range $506.00 — $547.65
1M Range $452.40 — $580.91
P/E TTMi168.6 P/E Fwdi38.9 50-DMAi+12.5% 200-DMAi+86.1% RSI(14)i52 YTDi+131.7% % from ATHi−11.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.43

04.2Recent IPOs

Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
SPCXSpaceX
IPO'd 12 Jun 2026
$162.00+2.83%
1D Range $155.88 — $162.16
1M Range $153.00 — $201.80
Mkt Capi$2.12T IPO-day Vali$2.10T IPO-to-Datei+0.7% Floati6.1B · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a P/E FwdiFY28E · 331x % from ATHi−28.2%

04.3Indices

Mixedi
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

US equity performance is fragmented: the Dow Jones Industrial Average leads with a 1.14% gain while the S&P 500 is flat and the Nasdaq slips 0.80%, but the real standout is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) down 5.57%, dragging on growth benchmarks. Breadth is actually running in the equal-weight's favor today: the RSP equal-weight S&P 500 is outpacing the cap-weighted index YTD by 2.32 percentage points (+11.43% vs +9.11%), meaning the average S&P 500 name is ahead of the index, not behind it - a broadening signal rather than Mag7 concentration. VIX eases to 16.15 (-2.65%), and bond volatility (MOVE at 66.79) is also softening. World markets are constructive, with the FTSE, Nikkei, and Hang Seng all up more than 1%, though emerging markets (EEM) lag at -1.17%.

US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,483.24+0.00%
1D Range 7,427.55 — 7,540.75
1M Range 7,267.00 — 7,584.32
50-DMAi+1.2% 200-DMAi+7.8% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+9.1% % from ATHi−1.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.82
IXICNasdaq Comp.
25,832.67−0.80%
1D Range 25,630.51 — 26,261.09
1M Range 25,169.50 — 26,853.98
50-DMAi−0.3% 200-DMAi+9.0% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+11.2% % from ATHi−4.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.67
DJIDow Jones Ind.
52,900.07+1.14%
1D Range 52,395.22 — 52,903.85
1M Range 49,918.79 — 52,900.07
50-DMAi+4.6% 200-DMAi+9.2% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+9.3% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+1.75
RUTRussell 2000
2,996.11−0.55%
1D Range 2,971.17 — 3,039.84
1M Range 2,833.50 — 3,024.37
50-DMAi+3.9% 200-DMAi+14.1% RSI(14)i59 YTDi+19.5% % from ATHi−1.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.85
SOXXSemiconductors
566.32−5.57%
1D Range 554.91 — 608.11
1M Range 539.77 — 655.01
50-DMAi+3.8% 200-DMAi+50.5% RSI(14)i47 YTDi+80.5% % from ATHi−13.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.49
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
214.91+0.70%
1D Range 213.29 — 215.61
1M Range 206.53 — 214.91
50-DMAi+3.9% 200-DMAi+9.0% RSI(14)i65 YTDi+11.4% vs SPX YTDi+2.3pp Cap-weight sharei-26%
VIXiVolatility Idx
16.15−2.65%
1D Range 15.79 — 17.21
1M Range 15.40 — 22.22
50-DMAi−8.7% 200-DMAi−13.5% RSI(14)i44 YTDi+11.3%
MOVEiMOVE Index
66.79−0.46%
5D Range 66.79 — 70.02
1M Range 65.39 — 77.03
50-DMAi−7.2% 200-DMAi−8.0% RSI(14)i42 YTDi+7.1%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
114.21−0.09%
5D Range 113.96 — 114.67
1M Range 111.38 — 114.67
50-DMAi+2.2% 200-DMAi+2.3% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+2.7%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,652.87+1.67%
1D Range 10,436.76 — 10,694.94
1M Range 10,227.33 — 10,652.87
50-DMAi+2.6% 200-DMAi+5.8% RSI(14)i64 YTDi+7.1% % from ATHi−2.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.74
N225Nikkei 225
69,631.31+1.31%
1D Range 67,609.49 — 69,687.50
1M Range 64,024.60 — 72,366.34
50-DMAi+7.2% 200-DMAi+27.0% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+34.3% % from ATHi−3.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.28
HSIHang Seng
23,416.52+1.57%
1D Range 23,187.00 — 23,512.00
1M Range 22,671.87 — 25,633.22
50-DMAi−7.2% 200-DMAi−9.6% RSI(14)i40 YTDi−11.1% % from ATHi−16.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.06
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
202.65+0.28%
1D Range 201.32 — 204.25
1M Range 197.36 — 205.67
50-DMAi+1.1% 200-DMAi+7.1% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+8.7% % from ATHi−1.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.65
EEMMSCI Emerging
65.70−1.17%
1D Range 64.80 — 67.19
1M Range 64.59 — 71.21
50-DMAi−1.5% 200-DMAi+11.0% RSI(14)i44 YTDi+16.8% % from ATHi−7.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.57
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
41.6Overvalued
−0.13% today
Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−5.9%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
32.1Overvalued
−0.13% today
Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP
218.1Overvalued
 
Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.6%
Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst
Healthcare+2.62%
Staples+2.34%
Materials+1.75%
Utilities+0.97%
Industrials+0.16%
Financials−0.62%
Telecom−1.33%
Energy−1.49%
Real Estate−2.07%
Discretionary−2.90%
Tech−2.94%

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

Offered
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Treasuries are selling off across the curve, with the 30-year leading the move higher at +6 basis points to 4.97% and the 10-year adding 4 bp to 4.48%. The steepening impulse is driven by real rates: the 10-year TIPS real yield rises 5 bp to 2.25% while the 10-year breakeven holds flat at 2.23%, meaning duration, not inflation expectations, is doing the work today. Credit spreads are essentially unmoved, with high-yield OAS tightening just 1 bp to 274 bp and investment-grade OAS flat at 76 bp, suggesting the rate backup is not yet registering as a stress signal in credit markets.

US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.17%+3 bp
5D Range 4.07 — 4.17
1M Range 4.05 — 4.24
5-day Δ+6 bp YTD Δ+70 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.48%+4 bp
5D Range 4.38 — 4.48
1M Range 4.38 — 4.56
10–2 spread+31 bp YTD Δ+29 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
4.97%+6 bp
5D Range 4.86 — 4.97
1M Range 4.86 — 5.03
5-day Δ+11 bp YTD Δ+11 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.39T -$73.1B (1d)
+8.8% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.32T +10.7% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.35%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.35% +0.06pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.9%
~$10.21T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.25% +5 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.23% 0 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.74% −1 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.76% 0 bp
tight · late-cycle

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Cooling
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Truflation's daily real-time read puts year-over-year consumer inflation at 1.80%, down 0.20 percentage points over the past month and 0.24 pp over the past year, with the trend firmly in cooling territory. Transport is the top upward contributor at +0.61 pp to the headline, but it is not enough to reverse the broader disinflationary drift. The 2.45 pp gap below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2% continues to reflect the lead-lag between real-time data and the lagged monthly survey.

1.80%
Daily +0.04 pp
1-mo −0.20 pp
1-yr −0.24 pp
Daily Data By
About the number
Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.
Truflation data as of 2026-07-02
vs BLS CPI official 4.2% (May 2026, monthly · lagged) −2.45 ppbelow official print next BLS CPI: 14 Jul 2026

Index Components

12 basket categories · sorted by weight
Category Inflation (YoY)i Contributioni Trend (1-mo)i
Housing
23.1% of basket
 +0.10%
+0.02 pp
Heating +0.32 pp
Transport
19.8% of basket
 +3.08%
+0.61 pp
Cooling −1.92 pp
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
 +1.45%
+0.22 pp
Heating +0.81 pp
Health
8.8% of basket
 +0.77%
+0.07 pp
Cooling −0.11 pp
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
 +2.09%
+0.15 pp
Cooling −2.02 pp
Utilities
6.0% of basket
 +2.83%
+0.17 pp
Heating +0.31 pp
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
 +2.36%
+0.13 pp
Flat +0.03 pp
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
 +6.37%
+0.24 pp
Heating +0.68 pp
Other
3.4% of basket
 +3.08%
+0.10 pp
Heating +0.54 pp
Communications
3.3% of basket
 +0.10%
0.00 pp
Heating +1.83 pp
Education
2.3% of basket
 +3.24%
+0.08 pp
Heating +0.70 pp
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
 +4.26%
+0.08 pp
Heating +0.84 pp

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Offered
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The JGB curve is steepening sharply, with the 10-year yield jumping 7 basis points to 2.78% and the 30-year sitting at 3.94%, while the 2-year holds at 1.40%. The 2s10s spread of 138 bp reflects significant term premium building at the long end, a dynamic that raises the cost of duration for yen-funded carry trades that park proceeds in longer-dated assets. The BoJ policy rate remains at 1.00%, leaving the 2-year JGB 40 bp above it - a meaningful shift in the short-end funding backdrop for yen borrowers.

JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.40%−0 bp
5D Range 1.38 — 1.41
1M Range 1.38 — 1.43
5-day Δ−3 bp YTD Δ+20 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.78%+7 bp
5D Range 2.61 — 2.78
1M Range 2.59 — 2.78
10–2 spread+138 bp YTD Δ+67 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
3.94%+5 bp
5D Range 3.76 — 3.94
1M Range 3.71 — 3.94
5-day Δ+16 bp YTD Δ+54 bp

04.7Commodities

Bullish
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy is broadly bid, with WTI crude, Brent, and natural gas each gaining roughly 2% to 2.2% on the day. Precious metals are also firmer, with Gold (XAU) up 1.51% to $4,188.20 and Silver up nearly 3% to $62.87, extending the metals complex's recent strength.

CLWTI Crude
$71.87+2.23%
5D Range $70.30 — $74.62
1M Range $70.30 — $99.76
50-DMAi−24.2% 200-DMAi−4.3% RSI(14)i29 YTDi+25.6%
COBrent
$71.59+2.04%
5D Range $70.16 — $75.69
1M Range $70.16 — $101.69
50-DMAi−28.0% 200-DMAi−11.8% RSI(14)i27 YTDi+15.5%
NGNatural Gas
$3.33+2.15%
5D Range $3.15 — $3.33
1M Range $2.97 — $3.34
50-DMAi+12.2% 200-DMAi−10.4% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+18.1%
XAUGold
$4,188.20+1.51%
5D Range $4,133.80 — $4,208.30
1M Range $4,008.80 — $4,381.40
50-DMAi−4.9% 200-DMAi−8.9% RSI(14)i47 YTDi−4.5%
XAGSilver
$62.87+2.96%
5D Range $61.38 — $63.13
1M Range $58.09 — $70.77
50-DMAi−13.1% 200-DMAi−8.9% RSI(14)i44 YTDi−13.6%

04.8Crypto Assets

Mixed
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Crypto price action is subdued at the asset level: Bitcoin sits at $61,366.04 (-0.21%) and Solana at $80.45 (-0.23%), while Ethereum edges up to $1,701.44 (+0.18%), leaving BTC dominance at 55.6%. The divergence between flat prices and a +1.33% total market cap gain and +3.43% global DeFi TVL rise in 24 hours suggests smaller-cap and on-chain activity is outpacing the large-cap names. Spot ETF flows are positive on the day - BTC pulling $224M and ETH $29M - but the 7-day BTC flow is -$971M, indicating today's inflow is a reversal within a broader week of outflows. Perpetual funding rates remain elevated (BTC at +10.95% APR, ETH at +8.59% APR), and the Fear and Greed Index at 21 (Extreme Fear) underscores the disconnect between on-chain activity and sentiment.

BTCBitcoin
$61,366.04−0.21%
1D Range $61,192.21 — $61,629.71
1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,276.80
50-DMAi−9.9% 200-DMAi−18.4% 200-WMAi($62,647.79) −2.0% RSI(14)i43 % from ATHi−51.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.40
ETHEthereum
$1,701.44+0.18%
1D Range $1,693.59 — $1,714.91
1M Range $1,565.19 — $1,795.01
50-DMAi−7.9% 200-DMAi−25.6% 200-WMAi($2,472.04) −31.2% RSI(14)i50 % from ATHi−65.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.37
SOLSolana
$80.45−0.23%
1D Range $80.37 — $81.55
1M Range $62.15 — $80.63
50-DMAi+5.9% 200-DMAi−14.7% 200-WMAi($107.12) −24.9% RSI(14)i63 % from ATHi−72.6% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.36
ENAEthena
$0.0766+0.23%
1D Range $0.0748 — $0.0791
1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0955
50-DMAi−14.9% 200-DMAi−41.1% RSI(14)i42 % from ATHi−95.0% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.97
HYPEHyperliquid
$66.52−0.51%
1D Range $65.94 — $66.93
1M Range $53.28 — $73.57
50-DMAi+9.2% 200-DMAi+66.4% RSI(14)i54 % from ATHi−11.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.98
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001563+4.41%
1D Range $0.001478 — $0.001581
1M Range $0.001197 — $0.001649
50-DMAi−2.3% 200-DMAi−17.8% RSI(14)i55 % from ATHi−81.8% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.34
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.23T −0.21%
55.6% of total
ETH Mcap
$205.4B +0.18%
9.3% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$310.0B −0.08%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.21T +1.33%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$86.2B −9.26%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$6.8B −8.78%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$263.6B −14.81%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$5.0B −18.95%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$72.7B +3.43%
all chains
Lending TVL
$37.8B +3.28%
money markets
DEX TVL
$11.5B +1.68%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.32%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+10.95% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+8.59% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.18 large traders long
1.18× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
21 Extreme Fear
Δ +2 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.43% −0.23 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 4.04%
USDTi
3.09% −0.57 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.10%
DAIi
3.69% +0.03 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.71%
WETHi
1.77% −0.00 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.77%

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Accumulating
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Corporate and institutional treasury holdings are substantial: BTC reserves stand at 1,283,327 BTC (6.11% of supply, roughly $78.7B), ETH at 7,709,571 ETH (6.39% of supply), and SOL at 19,021,279 SOL (3.27% of supply). Today's spot ETF flows are positive across all three assets (BTC +$224M, ETH +$29M, SOL +$2M), but the 7-day BTC flow of -$971M and ETH at -$26M show that today's buying is occurring against a week of net redemptions.

Asset Total Held USD Value % of Supply Top Public Holders
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
 1.28 M BTC $78.7 B 6.11% Strategy 847k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
 7.71 M ETH $13.1 B 6.39% BitMine Immersion 5.70M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎
Solana
SOL
 19.02 M SOL $1.5 B 3.27% Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Public-company treasuries3 assets
₿BitcoinBTC
$78.7 B
1.28 M BTC
% of supply6.11%
Top public holdersStrategy 847k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
ΞEthereumETH
$13.1 B
7.71 M ETH
% of supply6.39%
Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.70M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎SolanaSOL
$1.5 B
19.02 M SOL
% of supply3.27%
Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB… Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM) 1. IBIT BlackRock $44.9 B 2. FBTC Fidelity $13.4 B 3. GBTC Grayscale $8.4 B 4. BTC Grayscale Mini $3.4 B 5. ARKB ARK 21Shares $2.4 B + 8 more Flow data as of 02 Jul 2026
AUM
$77.4 B
24h Flow+$224 M
7-day Flow−$971 M
YTD Flowi−$5.46 B
ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH… Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM) 1. ETHA BlackRock $4.6 B 2. ETH Grayscale Mini $1.4 B 3. ETHE Grayscale $1.3 B 4. FETH Fidelity $994.2 M 5. ETHB BlackRock $488.2 M + 5 more Flow data as of 02 Jul 2026
AUM
$9.2 B
24h Flow+$29 M
7-day Flow−$26 M
YTD Flowi−$1.43 B
SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL… Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM) 1. BSOL Bitwise $625.8 M 2. GSOL Grayscale $107.3 M 3. VSOL VanEck $15.4 M 4. SOEZ Franklin $8.3 M 5. TSOL VanEck $2.6 M + 1 more Flow data as of 02 Jul 2026
AUM
$759.5 M
24h Flow+$2 M
7-day Flow+$8 M
YTD Flowi−$22 M

04.10Smart Money Positioning

Trimming
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The biggest trim in the last 24 hours is Uniswap (UNI), with 26 tracked wallets reducing exposure by $1.09M to a current holding of $129.8M. No significant add is recorded for the period. Overall smart-money positioning contracted by a net $3.47M in 24 hours, with the top book anchored by wrapped Ether (AETHWETH) at $168.8M and UNI holding the second spot despite the trim.

Total tracked$797.5M
Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist
Net change 24h-$3.47M
Data by
Paid per call x402by
Largest holdings10 tokens · $795.1M held
# Token · what it is Held · wallets Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. Mkt cap
1
AETHWETHEthereum
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
$168.8M
3 wallets
 -$109K -$1.40M building $3.89B
2
UNIEthereum
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
$129.8M
26 wallets
 -$1.09M -$187K building $1.98B
3
LITEthereum
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
$128.4M
4 wallets
 -$988K +$1.20M building $522.4M
4
ONDOEthereum
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
$97.6M
13 wallets
 -$286K -$51K building $1.61B
5
BGBEthereum
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
$95.8M
4 wallets
 -$340K +$33K building $1.18B
6
WLDEthereum
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
$80.4M
21 wallets
 -$322K -$1.13M building $1.46B
7
WLFIEthereum
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
$43.3M
1 wallet
 -$79K -$49K building $1.84B
8
USTBEthereum
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
$19.4M
6 wallets
 -$144K -$1.95M building $848.0M
9
MORPHOEthereum
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
$18.0M
5 wallets
 -$60K +$915K building $1.32B
10
STETHEthereum
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
$13.5M
9 wallets
 -$52K -$76K building $15.58B
1AETHWETHEthereum
$168.8M
3 wallets
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
24h-$109K 7d-$1.40M
2UNIEthereum
$129.8M
26 wallets
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
24h-$1.09M 7d-$187K
3LITEthereum
$128.4M
4 wallets
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
24h-$988K 7d+$1.20M
4ONDOEthereum
$97.6M
13 wallets
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
24h-$286K 7d-$51K
5BGBEthereum
$95.8M
4 wallets
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
24h-$340K 7d+$33K
6WLDEthereum
$80.4M
21 wallets
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
24h-$322K 7d-$1.13M
7WLFIEthereum
$43.3M
1 wallet
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
24h-$79K 7d-$49K
8USTBEthereum
$19.4M
6 wallets
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
24h-$144K 7d-$1.95M
9MORPHOEthereum
$18.0M
5 wallets
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
24h-$60K 7d+$915K
10STETHEthereum
$13.5M
9 wallets
Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt
24h-$52K 7d-$76K
Small-cap watch5 tokens · $2.4M held
# Token · what it is Held · wallets Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. Mkt cap
1
PENGUSolana
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
$1.3M
10 wallets
 -$2K +$6K building $402.3M
2
USELESSSolana
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
$608.9K
8 wallets
 -$797 -$3K building $88.9M
3
PEARArbitrum
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
$158.9K
2 wallets
 -$8 +$577 building $5.2M
4
DRVEthereum
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
$157.3K
10 wallets
 -$415 -$725 building $111.2M
5
PUMPSolana
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
$146.3K
9 wallets
 -$172K -$796K building $638.2M
1PENGUSolana
$1.3M
10 wallets
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
24h-$2K 7d+$6K
2USELESSSolana
$608.9K
8 wallets
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
24h-$797 7d-$3K
3PEARArbitrum
$158.9K
2 wallets
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
24h-$8 7d+$577
4DRVEthereum
$157.3K
10 wallets
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
24h-$415 7d-$725
5PUMPSolana
$146.3K
9 wallets
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
24h-$172K 7d-$796K

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Asset Last Trendi Supporti Resistancei RSIi RSI Status Signal
SPX S&P 500 7,483.24 Bullish 7,394.74 7,540.75 55 Neutral Buyconf 75%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp. 25,832.67 Sideways 23,702.59 25,912.18 49 Neutral Holdconf 50%
DXY Dollar Index 114.21 USD ↑ 111.78 114.67 68 Neutral Sellconf 65%
VIX Volatility 16.15 Suppressed 15.79 17.68 44 Neutral Hedgeconf 70%
US10Y US 10Y Yield 4.48% Yields ↑ 4.46% 4.48% 52 Neutral Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude $71.87 Bearish $70.30 $75.08 29 Oversold Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold $4,188 Bearish $4,134 $4,406 47 Neutral Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin $61,366 Bearish $61,192 $68,091 43 Neutral Sellconf 75%
ETH Ethereum $1,701 Bearish $1,694 $1,847 50 Neutral Sellconf 75%

06Key Events

Next 7 days
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The week's calendar is front-loaded with services-side data: ISM Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices all land Monday July 6, offering the first major read on June activity. FOMC Minutes on July 8 and Existing Home Sales on July 9 round out the macro slate, with PepsiCo (PEP) earnings on July 9 the lone mega-cap print to watch.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

  • Mon
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     ISM Services PMI (Jun)Est: 54 · prev 54.50 High
  • Wed
    18:00 UTC · 20:00 CEST     FOMC Minutes High
  • Thu
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     Existing Home Sales (Jun)Est: 4.20 M · prev 4.17 M High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/04)Est: 220 K · prev 215 K Medium
  • Thu
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     Existing Home Sales MoM (Jun)Est: -2.50 % · prev 3.20 % Medium
  • Mon
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     ISM Services Employment (Jun)Est: 48.60 · prev 47.90 Low
  • Mon
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     ISM Services Business Activity (Jun)Est: 57.20 · prev 57.70 Low
  • Mon
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     ISM Services Prices (Jun)Est: 69 · prev 71.30 Low
  • Mon
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     ISM Services New Orders (Jun)Est: 57 · prev 57.30 Low
1 / 2

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

  • Thu · After close PEP — PepsiCoEPS est $2.19 (+3% YoY) · Rev est $24.0B (+5% YoY) High
1 / 1

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Late-cyclei
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

A reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018), reassessed about every two weeks.

Today's read

Economy, Outlook, Lenders, Capital Markets, Capital, Terms, Interest Rates, and Investors all lean warm, reflecting elevated valuations (CAPE 10 at 41.39, Trailing P/E at 31.98), strong manufacturing and services PMIs (54.0 and 54.5), and persistent above-target inflation (4.25% headline CPI). Only Yield Spreads turn cold, with HY OAS at 280 bp and IG OAS at 76 bp signaling credit caution amid otherwise buoyant conditions.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 25 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Add Selectively
Refreshed 3 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Add selectively. Crypto fear extreme; equities rotation warns against broad chase

Today's tape is a study in divergence. Tesla fell 7.49% and Technology shed 2.94% while Healthcare gained 2.62% - a 5.56-percentage-point sector spread that is a textbook late-cycle rotation signal, not a broad-based rally. Apple's 4.84% gain flatters the cap-weighted index; the equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming by 0.70 points today confirms breadth is shifting away from mega-cap tech. The cycle sits firmly Late-cycle: CAPE 10 at 41.6 and trailing P/E at 32.15 are roughly double their long-run means, and PPI running at 6.42% year-over-year keeps the Fed on hold. Equities broadly deserve a 'wait.' The contrarian case sits in crypto: Bitcoin at $61,366 trades below its 200-week moving average, the Fear and Greed index registers Extreme Fear at 21, funding rates are near zero, and Bitcoin ETF inflows turned positive at $223.5 million today after a seven-day outflow streak. Solana's real-world asset expansion per NewsBTC and Securitize's tokenized-stock debut per CoinTelegraph add structural tailwinds. Add crypto selectively on this fear; hold or trim broad equities.

24h Bias
Selective add; avoid broad equity chase
Equities
Hold; trim Technology on rotation signal
Bonds
Add small at 30Y 4.97%; real yield 2.25%
Commodities
Hold gold; add small silver on momentum
Crypto
Add Bitcoin and Solana on Extreme Fear
Vol hedge
Hold VIX puts; VIX 16.15 is cheap insurance