Tech Surges, Crypto Bleeds in Split Session
01Daily Summary
So far today, US Consumer Confidence came in at 91.2 against an estimate of 94.4, a miss that underscores fragile household sentiment, while JOLTs job openings beat at 7.594 million versus 7.3 million expected, keeping labor-market tightness in the picture. Equities are pushing higher regardless, with the S&P 500 up 0.82% to 7,502 intraday, led by a sharp technology rally. Crypto tells the opposite story: Bitcoin is off 2.6% to $58,587, sitting 6.5% below its 200-week moving average, with spot ETF outflows of $231 million in 24 hours reinforcing the divergence.
- Driver:Advanced Micro Devices surged 7.93% and Intel 6.28%, powering a broad technology rally that lifted the S&P 500 despite a Consumer Confidence miss.
- Cross-asset:Equities firm, VIX down 6.9% to 16.44; crypto total market cap off 2.5%; silver up 2.6%; WTI crude down 1.75%; DXY fractionally softer.
- Bonds & rates:US 30Y yield at 4.87%; 2s10s spread at 31 basis points; 10Y real yield 2.18%; 10Y breakeven 2.22%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) 280 bp, tightening 3 bp today; IPOR DAI rate elevated at 13.97%.
- Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 15 (Extreme Fear); equity Fear and Greed at 31.6 (Fear); VIX at 16.44 (calm); Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.30; funding rates near flat.
- Forward bias:US ISM Manufacturing PMI tomorrow, EU inflation rate, then US Non-Farm Payrolls Thursday. A payrolls beat could flip crypto sentiment; a miss pressures equities given stretched valuations.
02Macro Snapshot
Stagflation risk rising| Benchmark Rates | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Ratei | 3.50 – 3.75 % | unchanged | 17 Jun 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | Fed funds at 3.50-3.75% maintains balanced conditions for risk assets. |
| ECB Ratei | 2.25 % | +25 bp | 11 Jun 2026 | 23 Jul 2026 | ECB rate at 2.25% after hike pressures European risk assets. |
| BoJ Ratei | 1.00 % | +25 bp | 16 Jun 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 | BoJ rate at 1.00% sustains attractive JPY carry trade for global risk. |
| SOFRi | 3.62 % | unchanged | daily | tomorrow | SOFR at 3.62% points to stable short-end USD funding conditions. |
| IPOR USDCi | 3.56 % | −6 bp | real-time | — | IPOR USDC at 3.56% below SOFR indicates deleveraging in onchain USD. |
| IPOR WETHi | 1.76 % | −2 bp | real-time | — | IPOR WETH at 1.76% shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand. |
| ETH Ratei | 2.32 % | — | real-time | — | ETH staking yield at 2.32% reflects steady validator demand. |
| US Inflation | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TruCPI-US (headline)i | 1.91 % | 0.00 pp | daily | tomorrow | Truflation CPI at 1.91% runs cooler than official prints. |
| CPI YoY (headline)i | 4.2 % | +0.4 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Headline CPI at 4.2% keeps Fed cautious on further easing. |
| CPI YoY (core)i | 2.9 % | +0.1 pp | 10 Jun 2026 | 14 Jul 2026 | Core CPI at 2.9% shows moderate stickiness in underlying inflation. |
| PCE YoY (headline)i | 4.1 % | +0.3 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | PCE at 4.1% remains above target, tempering Fed rate cut expectations. |
| PCE YoY (core)i | 3.4 % | +0.1 pp | 25 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | Core PCE at 3.4% stays elevated versus the 2% target. |
| PPI YoY (headline)i | 6.4 % | +0.8 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | PPI at 6.4% signals upstream inflation pressures feeding into CPI. |
| PPI YoY (core)i | 4.9 % | +0.0 pp | 11 Jun 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | Core PPI at 4.9% indicates persistent upstream price pressures. |
| Euro Area Inflationi | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Area | 3.1 % | +0.1 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Euro area HICP at 3.1% exceeds ECB target, supporting higher rates. |
| Romania | 9.7 % | +0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Romania HICP at 9.7% remains elevated amid fiscal tightening. |
| Bulgaria | 6.3 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Bulgaria HICP at 6.3% reflects post-euro convergence dynamics. |
| Poland | 3.3 % | −0.0 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Poland HICP at 3.3% prompts central bank caution above target. |
| Germany | 2.7 % | −0.2 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Germany HICP at 2.7% anchors euro area inflation near target. |
| France | 2.8 % | +0.3 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | France HICP at 2.8% sits close to ECB target. |
| Labor | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) | 159.00 M jobs | +172 k | 5 Jun 2026 | 2 Jul 2026 | NFP at +172k indicates moderate labor market strength. |
| Unemployment Ratei | 4.3 % | unchanged | 5 Jun 2026 | 2 Jul 2026 | Unemployment at 4.3% points to rising slack in labor market. |
| Activity | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Productioni (YoY) | +1.7 % | +0.3 pp | 15 Jun 2026 | 17 Jul 2026 | Industrial production up 1.7% YoY shows steady manufacturing activity. |
| Retail Salesi (m/m) | +1.0 % | +0.7 pp | 17 Jun 2026 | 16 Jul 2026 | Retail sales up 1.0% m/m signal resilient consumer demand. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMIi | 54.0 | +1.3 | May 2026 | — | ISM manufacturing at 54.0 confirms expansion in factory |
| ISM Services PMIi | 54.5 | +0.9 | May 2026 | — |
| Yield Curve | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y2Y Spreadi | 31 bp | — | daily | tomorrow | Positive curve. Recession odds receding. |
| Sentiment | Latest | Δ vs Prior | Released | Next Release | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) | 32 (Fear) | +5 | daily | tomorrow | |
| Crypto Fear & Greedi | 15 (Extreme Fear) | +3 | daily | tomorrow | |
| News Sentimenti | +27 (Greed) | +17 | every 30 min | — |
03News Sentiment
Greed04.1Tech Equitiesi
BullishTech is broadly bid so far today, with 7 of 9 names in the green heading into the close. Advanced Micro Devices leads the cohort up 7.93% and Intel is close behind at +6.28%, driving the semiconductor surge that is also lifting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) sharply. Apple and Tesla are each up roughly 2%, while Amazon and Meta Platforms are the lone laggards, both off less than half a percent.
04.2Recent IPOs
04.3Indices
BullishiUS equities are broadly higher so far today, with the Nasdaq outperforming at +1.53% as semiconductor strength pulls it ahead of the S&P 500's +0.82% and the Dow's more modest +0.30%. The SOXX is the standout at +4.44%, reflecting the chip-sector surge visible in the tech cohort. Breadth is notably constructive: the equal-weight RSP is running +10.50% YTD versus the cap-weighted S&P 500's +9.38%, a gap of -1.12 percentage points in favor of the equal-weight index, meaning the average S&P 500 name is actually outperforming the Mag7-heavy cap-weighted benchmark year-to-date. VIX is pulling back sharply, down 6.86% to 16.44, consistent with the risk-on tone, and the MOVE index at 66.79 signals bond volatility is also subdued. International markets are mixed, with emerging markets (EEM +1.37%) and the Nikkei (+0.86%) participating while the Hang Seng slips 0.63%.
04.4US Treasuries & Credit
BidNominal yields are marginally lower on the front and belly of the curve so far today, with the 2-year at 4.07% and the 10-year at 4.38% (each down 2 bp), while the 30-year edges up 1 bp to 4.87%, steepening the long end slightly. The 2s10s spread holds at +31 bp, a modestly positive slope. On the real-rates thread, the 10-year TIPS real yield dips 1 bp to 2.18% while the 10-year breakeven ticks up 2 bp to 2.22%, meaning the modest yield decline is being absorbed by a slight rise in inflation expectations rather than a drop in real rates. Credit spreads are grinding tighter, with high-yield OAS at 280 bp (-3 bp) and investment-grade OAS at 76 bp (-1 bp), consistent with the broader risk-on session.
04.5US Inflation · Daily
CoolingTruflation's daily real-time read sits at 1.91% year-over-year as of this snapshot, down 0.30 percentage points over the past month and 0.35 pp over the past year, maintaining a cooling trend. That reading sits 2.34 pp below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2%, a gap that reflects the leading nature of the daily series versus the lagged monthly figure. Transport is the top contributor, adding 0.66 pp to the headline.
Index Components
12 basket categories · sorted by weight| Category | Inflation (YoY)i | Contributioni | Trend (1-mo)i |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Housing
23.1% of basket
|
+0.11% |
+0.03 pp
|
Heating +0.52 pp |
|
Transport
19.8% of basket
|
+3.36% |
+0.66 pp
|
Cooling −1.86 pp |
|
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
|
+1.25% |
+0.19 pp
|
Heating +0.52 pp |
|
Health
8.8% of basket
|
+0.99% |
+0.09 pp
|
Cooling −0.10 pp |
|
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
|
+3.29% |
+0.23 pp
|
Cooling −1.17 pp |
|
Utilities
6.0% of basket
|
+2.84% |
+0.17 pp
|
Cooling −2.36 pp |
|
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
|
+2.60% |
+0.14 pp
|
Heating +0.13 pp |
|
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
|
+5.61% |
+0.21 pp
|
Heating +0.11 pp |
|
Other
3.4% of basket
|
+3.17% |
+0.11 pp
|
Heating +0.54 pp |
|
Communications
3.3% of basket
|
-0.06% |
0.00 pp
|
Heating +2.35 pp |
|
Education
2.3% of basket
|
+3.46% |
+0.08 pp
|
Heating +0.38 pp |
|
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
|
+4.11% |
+0.08 pp
|
Heating +0.51 pp |
04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve
OfferedJGB yields are drifting higher at the long end so far today, with the 10-year JGB up 3 bp to 2.64% and the 30-year at 3.79%, while the 2-year holds at 1.41%. The 2s10s JGB spread sits at a steep +123 bp, reflecting a curve that remains sharply upward-sloping well above the Bank of Japan's 1.00% policy rate. That steepness keeps the yen carry-trade funding cost anchored at the short end while longer-duration JGB yields continue to price in a higher-rate environment.
04.7Commodities
MixedEnergy is under pressure heading into the close, with Brent crude down sharply at -4.93% and WTI off 1.75%, while natural gas bucks the trend with a 2.60% gain. Metals are diverging: Gold (XAU) is flat at $4,039.00 while Silver is outperforming, up 2.55% to $60.13, narrowing the gold-silver ratio on the session.
04.8Crypto Assets
BearishCrypto is broadly lower so far today in US hours, with Bitcoin down 2.60% to $58,587.22, Ethereum off 2.19% to $1,575.26, and Solana down 2.02% to $73.44, tracking a total crypto market cap decline of 2.54% over 24 hours. Spot ETF flows are adding to the pressure: BTC ETFs have seen $231 million in outflows and ETH ETFs $30 million, extending a seven-day BTC outflow streak that now totals $1.95 billion. The crypto fear and greed index has dropped to 15, deep in Extreme Fear territory, while BTC dominance holds at 55.3%, suggesting altcoins are not finding a safe-haven bid within the asset class. Perpetual funding rates remain positive (BTC +10.93% APR, ETH +7.44% APR), indicating leveraged longs are still paying to hold, which adds downside risk if spot selling continues into the close.
04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows
DistributingCorporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,280,592 BTC (~$74.9 billion, 6.10% of supply), 7,709,571 ETH (~$12.1 billion, 6.39% of supply), and 18,484,815 SOL (~$1.36 billion, 3.18% of supply) held across tracked entities. Spot ETF flows published so far today show BTC at -$231 million and ETH at -$30 million, while SOL ETFs attract a modest +$6 million. The seven-day picture is more telling: BTC ETFs have shed $1.95 billion and ETH $237 million over the past week, while SOL has accumulated a small +$4 million net inflow.
| Asset | Total Held | USD Value | % of Supply | Top Public Holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
|
1.28 M BTC | $74.9 B | 6.10% | Strategy 847k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 40k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k |
|
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
|
7.71 M ETH | $12.1 B | 6.39% | BitMine Immersion 5.70M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k |
|
◎
Solana
SOL
|
18.48 M SOL | $1.4 B | 3.18% | Forward Industries 7.01M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M |
04.10Smart Money Positioning
TrimmingThe biggest add so far in the 24-hour window is Morpho (MORPHO) on Ethereum, with tracked wallets adding +$848K to bring the position to $16.7M across 5 wallets. The biggest trim is Worldcoin (WLD), where 21 wallets have reduced exposure by $654K to $79.0M. Overall smart-money net change over 24 hours is -$546K, a marginal net reduction in aggregate positioning.
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AETHWETHEthereum Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure) |
$156.2M
3 wallets
|
-$295K | -$1.08M | building | $3.60B |
| 2 |
UNIEthereum Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX) |
$113.6M
26 wallets
|
-$234K | +$446K | building | $1.73B |
| 3 |
LITEthereum Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation |
$113.2M
4 wallets
|
+$303K | +$868K | building | $463.8M |
| 4 |
ONDOEthereum Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets) |
$92.1M
13 wallets
|
-$302K | +$71K | building | $1.52B |
| 5 |
BGBEthereum Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange |
$90.2M
4 wallets
|
+$14K | +$154K | building | $1.11B |
| 6 |
WLDEthereum Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era |
$79.0M
21 wallets
|
-$654K | -$927K | building | $1.43B |
| 7 |
WLFIEthereum World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol |
$43.1M
1 wallet
|
-$153K | +$71K | building | $1.83B |
| 8 |
USTBEthereum Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund |
$19.4M
6 wallets
|
+$4K | +$6.82M | building | $866.4M |
| 9 |
MORPHOEthereum Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer |
$16.7M
5 wallets
|
+$848K | +$883K | building | $1.23B |
| 10 |
STETHEthereum Lido staked ETH: liquid staking receipt |
$12.5M
9 wallets
|
-$77K | -$161K | building | $14.40B |
| # | Token · what it is | Held · wallets | Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. | Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. | Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
PENGUSolana Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin |
$1.2M
10 wallets
|
-$5K | -$399 | building | $381.0M |
| 2 |
PUMPSolana Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token |
$889.7K
14 wallets
|
-$7K | -$1.45M | building | $587.8M |
| 3 |
USELESSSolana Useless Coin: Solana memecoin |
$592.2K
8 wallets
|
-$7K | -$3K | building | $86.4M |
| 4 |
DRVEthereum Derive: on-chain options and structured products |
$155.3K
10 wallets
|
+$2K | +$2K | building | $108.5M |
| 5 |
PEARArbitrum Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps |
$142.7K
2 wallets
|
-$137 | -$63 | building | $4.7M |
05Technical Dashboard
Mixed| Asset | Last | Trendi | Supporti | Resistancei | RSIi | RSI Status | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX S&P 500 | 7,501.62 | Bullish | 7,371.41 | 7,508.29 | 56 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| IXIC Nasdaq Comp. | 26,214.64 | Bullish | 25,813.11 | 26,231.19 | 54 | Neutral | Buyconf 75% |
| DXY Dollar Index | 114.21 | USD ↑ | 111.78 | 114.67 | 68 | Neutral | Sellconf 65% |
| VIX Volatility | 16.44 | Suppressed | 16.40 | 17.79 | 45 | Neutral | Hedgeconf 70% |
| US10Y US 10Y Yield | 4.38% | Sideways | 4.23% | 4.45% | 41 | Neutral | Holdconf 50% |
| CL WTI Crude | $78.94 | Sideways | $74.88 | $97.19 | 30 | Neutral | Holdconf 50% |
| XAU Gold | $4,039 | Bearish | $3,955 | $4,427 | 33 | Neutral | Sellconf 65% |
| BTC Bitcoin | $58,587 | Bearish | $58,202 | $68,964 | 30 | Neutral | Sellconf 65% |
| ETH Ethereum | $1,575 | Bearish | $1,550 | $1,876 | 35 | Neutral | Sellconf 65% |
06Key Events
Next 7 daysThe most consequential item on deck this week is Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for June (both at 12:30 UTC on July 2), which will set the tone for Fed expectations heading into July. Monday, July 6 brings a triple-header of ISM Services data, including the headline Services PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Non-Manufacturing Prices, all at 14:00 UTC. No mega-cap earnings are scheduled in the next seven days, so macro data will dominate the tape.
U.S. Macro Releases
-
Tomorrow
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)Est: 54 · prev 54 High -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Unemployment Rate (Jun)Est: 4.30 % · prev 4.30 % High -
Mon
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Services PMI (Jun)Est: 51.50 · prev 54.50 High -
Tomorrow
12:15 UTC · 14:15 CEST ADP Employment Change (Jun)Est: 113 K · prev 122 K Medium -
Tomorrow
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jun)Est: 49 · prev 48.60 Medium -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/27)Est: 220 K · prev 215 K Medium -
Tomorrow
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun)Est: 79 · prev 82.10 Low -
Tomorrow
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Manufacturing New Orders (Jun)Est: 56 · prev 56.80 Low -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST U-6 Unemployment Rate (Jun)Est: 8.10 % · prev 8.10 % Low -
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Jun)Est: 115 K · prev 120 K Low -
Mon
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Services Employment (Jun)prev 47.90 Low -
Mon
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Services New Orders (Jun)prev 57.30 Low -
Mon
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Services Business Activity (Jun)prev 57.70 Low -
Mon
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST ISM Services Prices (Jun)prev 71.30 Low
Earnings
No mega-cap earnings on the watchlist this week.
08Daily Alpha
Add selectively: semiconductors and silver offer entry; equities broadly stretched
So far today, the data is mixed in a useful way. CB Consumer Confidence printed at 91.2, missing the 94.4 estimate but nudging above May's 90.6 - soft but not deteriorating. JOLTs Job Openings surprised to the upside at 7.594M versus the 7.3M estimate, keeping the labor picture firm ahead of Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls. The tape's standout moves are Advanced Micro Devices up 7.93% and Intel up 6.28%, driving Technology to the session's best sector at +2.65% while Utilities sink 2.27% - a nearly 5-point spread that reads as classic late-cycle rotation into growth and away from defensives. The S&P 500 at 7,502 is not cheap (trailing P/E at 31.98 versus a 16.23 long-run mean), and the cycle sits firmly Late. Crypto is a different story: Bitcoin at $58,587 trades 6.5% below its 200-week moving average, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 15 (Extreme Fear), and spot Bitcoin ETF flows are -$231M on the day with -$1.95B over seven days. That asymmetry - deep fear, negative ETF momentum, but stable stablecoin supply - argues for a small, staged Bitcoin entry rather than a chase. Silver's 2.55% gain adds a real-asset hedge angle worth holding. Broad equity adds should wait for a better entry.