01Daily Summary

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

The S&P 500 rose 1.08% to 7,501 on news of a US-Iran peace deal easing inflation risks, while WTI crude plunged 4.48% to $84.65 and gold fell 1.72% to $4,172.90. The 10-year real yield climbed 9 basis points to 2.23%, and high-yield credit spreads tightened 8 basis points to 263, signaling improved risk appetite in fixed income. Yet crypto remains frozen in Extreme Fear (score 23), Bitcoin edged up just 0.25% to $63,640, and equity Fear & Greed sits at 37.3. The cycle framework reads Mid-cycle with warm Capital Markets (CAPE 41.71) offset by cold Interest Rates and Investor sentiment.

S&P 500+1.08%NASDAQ+1.91%US10Y+6 bpWTI−4.48%Gold−1.72%BTC+0.25%ETH+0.79%DXY−0.43%VIX+2.32%

Driver:US-Iran peace deal headlines drove the session, lifting equities on reduced geopolitical and inflation tail risks while pressuring energy and safe-haven commodities.
Cross-asset:Equities and credit rallied together; commodities sold off hard; crypto stayed flat despite the macro tailwind, and the dollar weakened 0.43%.
Bonds & rates:The 30-year yield stands at 4.93%, 2s10s curve at +29 basis points; real yield rose to 2.23%, breakeven inflation dipped 1 basis point to 2.25%.
Sentiment:Crypto Fear & Greed at 23 (Extreme Fear), equity F&G at 37.3 (Fear), VIX up 2.32% to 16.78; Bitcoin funding near zero, long/short ratio 1.20.
Forward bias:No high-impact US releases in the next 48 hours; watch for follow-through on the Iran deal and whether crypto sentiment thaws or equities consolidate gains.

02Macro Snapshot

Stagflation risk rising

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Benchmark Rates	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Fed Ratei	3.50 – 3.75 %	unchanged	17 Jun 2026	29 Jul 2026	Fed funds at 3.50 - 3.75 % supports steady policy for risk assets.
ECB Ratei	2.25 %	+25 bp	11 Jun 2026	23 Jul 2026	ECB rate at 2.25 % after +25 bp hike pressures European risk assets.
BoJ Ratei	0.75 %	unchanged	16 Jun 2026	31 Jul 2026	BoJ rate at 0.75 % keeps JPY carry trade attractive for global risk.
SOFRi	3.63 %	unchanged	daily	tomorrow	SOFR at 3.63 % signals stable short end funding for risk assets.
IPOR USDCi	3.51 %	−12 bp	real-time	—	USDC IPOR at 3.51 % is 0.12 pp below SOFR indicating deleveraging.
IPOR WETHi	1.81 %	+0 bp	real-time	—	WETH IPOR at 1.81 % points to cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei	2.39 %	—	real-time	—	ETH staking yield at 2.39 % attracts higher validator demand.

Inflation	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
TruCPI-US (headline)i	1.80 %	+0.01 pp	daily	tomorrow	Truflation CPI at 1.80 % runs cooler than official CPI reading.
CPI YoY (headline)i	4.2 %	+0.4 pp	10 Jun 2026	14 Jul 2026	Headline CPI at 4.2 % keeps Fed cautious about further cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i	2.9 %	+0.1 pp	10 Jun 2026	14 Jul 2026	Core CPI at 2.9 % shows moderate inflation stickiness remaining.
PPI YoY (headline)i	6.4 %	+0.8 pp	11 Jun 2026	15 Jul 2026	PPI at 6.4 % accelerates upstream inflation ahead of CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i	4.9 %	+0.0 pp	11 Jun 2026	15 Jul 2026	Core PPI at 4.9 % exceeds core CPI indicating persistent pressures.

Labor	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m)	159.00 M jobs	+172 k	5 Jun 2026	2 Jul 2026	NFP at +172 k shows cooling in labor market strength.
Unemployment Ratei	4.3 %	unchanged pp	5 Jun 2026	2 Jul 2026	Unemployment at 4.3 % adds slack prompting potential Fed response.

Activity	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY)	+1.7 %	+0.3 pp	15 Jun 2026	17 Jul 2026	Industrial production at +1.7 % YoY signals manufacturing strength.
Retail Salesi (m/m)	+1.0 %	+0.7 pp	17 Jun 2026	16 Jul 2026	Retail sales of +1.0 % m/m indicate healthy consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi	54.0	+1.3	May 2026	—	ISM manufacturing at 54.0 indicates factory sector expansion.
ISM Services PMIi	54.5	+0.9	May 2026	—	ISM services at 54.5 indicates services sector expansion.

Yield Curve	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi	29 bp	—	daily	tomorrow	Positive curve. Recession odds receding.

Sentiment	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity)	37 (Fear)	unchanged	daily	tomorrow	CNN FNG at 37 reflects Fear in equity market sentiment.
Crypto Fear & Greedi	23 (Extreme Fear)	+9	daily	tomorrow	Crypto FNG at 23 reflects Extreme Fear suggesting contrarian opportunity.
News Sentimenti	−3 (Neutral)	+16	every 30 min	—	News sentiment at -3 reflects Neutral diverging from market Fear.

03News Sentiment

Neutral

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −32 to +46 · current −3 (Neutral) · +16 24h

7 days ago today

Direction

bull 42% bear 58% ± 14% uncertainty

Coverage

macro 49% crypto 51% mixed 0%

What's driving today's news sentiment Top 1 · sorted by impact

−32 Bearish immediate

Bolivia declares state of emergency amid economic disruptions from road blockades

Bolivia's president declared a state of emergency after prolonged road blockades causing severe economic disruption and unrest, raising local political risk and short-term market uncertainty.

bloomberg.comconf 85% Market-Wide

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bullish

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Tech equities rallied across the board with all nine Mag7 + Intel + AMD names closing higher. Intel led the cohort with a +10.64% surge, followed by AMD +4.86% and Nvidia +2.95%, while Amazon added 2.90% and Meta 1.70%. Microsoft and Apple posted more modest gains of +0.13% and +0.70% respectively.

AAPLApple

$298.01+0.70%

1D Range $295.62 — $300.57

1M Range $290.55 — $315.20

P/E TTMi35.8 P/E Fwdi30.9 50-DMAi+3.2% 200-DMAi+11.1% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+10.0% % from ATHi−6.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.52

MSFTMicrosoft

$379.40+0.13%

1D Range $373.28 — $381.37

1M Range $378.91 — $460.52

P/E TTMi22.5 P/E Fwdi19.5 50-DMAi−8.1% 200-DMAi−15.9% RSI(14)i35 YTDi−19.8% % from ATHi−31.7% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.54

GOOGLAlphabet

$368.03+1.17%

1D Range $358.67 — $369.48

1M Range $356.38 — $390.13

P/E TTMi27.8 P/E Fwdi25.9 50-DMAi+0.2% 200-DMAi+18.3% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+16.8% % from ATHi−9.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.67

AMZNAmazon

$244.39+2.90%

1D Range $236.02 — $245.73

1M Range $237.50 — $274.00

P/E TTMi28.9 P/E Fwdi27.8 50-DMAi−4.9% 200-DMAi+5.0% RSI(14)i44 YTDi+7.9% % from ATHi−12.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.68

NVDANVIDIA

$210.69+2.95%

1D Range $206.50 — $211.38

1M Range $200.42 — $224.36

P/E TTMi32.1 P/E Fwdi23.6 50-DMAi+0.7% 200-DMAi+10.9% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+11.6% % from ATHi−10.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.35

METAMeta Platforms

$577.22+1.70%

1D Range $563.10 — $580.20

1M Range $566.98 — $635.29

P/E TTMi20.7 P/E Fwdi17.5 50-DMAi−7.2% 200-DMAi−11.9% RSI(14)i43 YTDi−11.3% % from ATHi−27.5% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.09

TSLATesla

$400.49+1.04%

1D Range $384.70 — $402.52

1M Range $381.59 — $442.10

P/E TTMi334.2 P/E Fwdi212.2 50-DMAi−0.5% 200-DMAi−4.0% RSI(14)i47 YTDi−8.6% % from ATHi−19.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.50

INTCIntel

$133.99+10.64%

1D Range $127.90 — $135.48

1M Range $99.17 — $133.99

P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi123.5 50-DMAi+32.1% 200-DMAi+141.4% RSI(14)i64 YTDi+240.2% % from ATHi−1.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.66

AMDAMD

$537.37+4.86%

1D Range $526.32 — $539.69

1M Range $447.58 — $547.26

P/E TTMi175.0 P/E Fwdi71.9 50-DMAi+30.7% 200-DMAi+105.8% RSI(14)i61 YTDi+140.5% % from ATHi−3.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.47

04.2Recent IPOs

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

SPCXSpaceX

IPO'd 12 Jun 2026

$185.00−3.56%

1D Range $172.11 — $190.00

1M Range $160.95 — $201.80

Mkt Capi$2.42T IPO-day Vali$2.10T IPO-to-Datei+14.9% Floati638.9M · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a P/E FwdiFY28E · 378x % from ATHi−18.0%

04.3Indices

Bullishi

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

US equities advanced broadly, led by semiconductors (SOXX +6.62%) and small-caps (Russell 2000 +2.12%), while the Nasdaq climbed 1.91% and the S&P 500 gained 1.08%. The Dow lagged at +0.14%, reflecting sector rotation out of defensives. Market breadth remains concentrated: the S&P 500 cap-weighted index holds a +9.36% YTD gain versus the equal-weight RSP at +8.87%, a 0.50 percentage-point gap that signals Mag7 names are still carrying the rally while the median stock trails. The VIX rose 2.32% to 16.78 despite the equity advance, a modest bid for volatility protection. Emerging markets outperformed developed (EEM +3.25% vs URTH +0.87%), while the Hang Seng fell 1.59%.

US Equity Benchmarks

SPXS&P 500

7,500.58+1.08%

1D Range 7,468.32 — 7,511.07

1M Range 7,267.00 — 7,609.77

50-DMAi+2.5% 200-DMAi+8.7% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+9.4% % from ATHi−1.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.77

IXICNasdaq Comp.

26,517.93+1.91%

1D Range 26,188.69 — 26,559.74

1M Range 25,169.50 — 27,093.90

50-DMAi+3.8% 200-DMAi+12.7% RSI(14)i56 YTDi+14.1% % from ATHi−2.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.82

DJIDow Jones Ind.

51,564.70+0.14%

1D Range 51,554.53 — 51,949.26

1M Range 49,918.79 — 51,999.68

50-DMAi+3.3% 200-DMAi+7.1% RSI(14)i59 YTDi+6.6% % from ATHi−1.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.46

RUTRussell 2000

2,979.77+2.12%

1D Range 2,939.82 — 2,980.60

1M Range 2,817.36 — 2,979.77

50-DMAi+5.2% 200-DMAi+14.7% RSI(14)i61 YTDi+18.8% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+1.72

SOXXSemiconductors

639.45+6.62%

1D Range 626.16 — 644.43

1M Range 520.31 — 639.45

50-DMAi+25.8% 200-DMAi+77.6% RSI(14)i64 YTDi+103.8% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+2.88

Risk & Breadth Gauges

RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt

209.96+0.46%

1D Range 209.77 — 211.29

1M Range 203.83 — 212.88

50-DMAi+2.5% 200-DMAi+7.1% RSI(14)i56 YTDi+8.9% vs SPX YTDi−0.5pp Cap-weight sharei+5%

VIXiVolatility Idx

16.78+2.32%

1D Range 16.72 — 17.27

1M Range 15.32 — 22.22

50-DMAi−5.7% 200-DMAi−9.6% RSI(14)i46 YTDi+13.0%

MOVEiMOVE Index

69.36−0.13%

5D Range 69.36 — 77.03

1M Range 69.36 — 86.07

50-DMAi−5.7% 200-DMAi−5.3% RSI(14)i43 YTDi+11.2%

DXYTrade-Wt. USD

112.56−0.43%

5D Range 112.56 — 113.04

1M Range 111.19 — 113.04

50-DMAi+1.0% 200-DMAi+1.0% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+1.2%

World Markets

FTSEFTSE 100

10,363.27−0.35%

1D Range 10,352.90 — 10,418.58

1M Range 10,227.33 — 10,508.61

50-DMAi−0.4% 200-DMAi+3.4% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+4.1% % from ATHi−5.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.55

N225Nikkei 225

71,250.06+0.28%

1D Range 70,517.98 — 71,952.99

1M Range 63,339.07 — 71,250.06

50-DMAi+13.8% 200-DMAi+33.0% RSI(14)i71 YTDi+37.5% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+2.53

HSIHang Seng

23,924.81−1.59%

1D Range 23,749.99 — 24,163.25

1M Range 23,924.82 — 26,038.33

50-DMAi−6.6% 200-DMAi−8.0% RSI(14)i33 YTDi−9.2% % from ATHi−14.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.22

Global Equity Baskets

URTHMSCI World

202.73+0.87%

1D Range 202.20 — 203.17

1M Range 197.44 — 206.18

50-DMAi+1.9% 200-DMAi+7.7% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+8.7% % from ATHi−1.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.66

EEMMSCI Emerging

70.79+3.25%

1D Range 69.97 — 70.92

1M Range 64.59 — 70.80

50-DMAi+7.8% 200-DMAi+21.2% RSI(14)i62 YTDi+25.9% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+1.94

Valuations

CAPE 10iShiller P/E

41.7Overvalued

+0.80% today

Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−5.6%

Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)

32.2Overvalued

+0.80% today

Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)

Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP

218.5Overvalued

Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.5%

Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst

Utilities+1.26%

Tech+0.94%

Discretionary+0.88%

Telecom+0.61%

Energy−0.79%

Healthcare−0.94%

Staples−0.96%

Real Estate−1.00%

Materials−1.09%

Financials−1.14%

Industrials−1.44%

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

Offered

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Treasury yields steepened sharply, with the 2-year rising 15 basis points to 4.20% while the 10-year added 6 bp to 4.49% and the 30-year held flat at 4.93%, widening the 2s10s curve to +29 bp. Real rates drove the move: the 10-year TIPS real yield climbed 9 bp to 2.23% while inflation breakevens slipped 1 bp to 2.25%, indicating the nominal yield rise reflects tighter real financial conditions rather than inflation repricing. Credit spreads tightened in tandem, with high-yield OAS compressing 8 bp to 263 bp and investment-grade OAS down 1 bp to 74 bp, signaling risk appetite even as duration sold off.

US2YiTreasury 2Y

4.20%+15 bp

5D Range 4.05 — 4.20

1M Range 3.98 — 4.20

5-day Δ+7 bp YTD Δ+73 bp

US10YiTreasury 10Y

4.49%+6 bp

5D Range 4.43 — 4.49

1M Range 4.43 — 4.67

10–2 spread+29 bp YTD Δ+30 bp

US30YiTreasury 30Y

4.93%0 bp

5D Range 4.93 — 4.97

1M Range 4.93 — 5.18

5-day Δ−10 bp YTD Δ+7 bp

Fiscal

US Debt & Servicing

Total Public Debti

$39.28T -$6.8B (1d)

+8.5% YoY

Annual Interest (gross)i

$1.32T +10.4% YoY

gross · avg rate 3.35%

Rate & Rollover Risk

Wtd Avg Rate on Debti

3.35% +0.06pp YoY

on total interest-bearing debt

Maturing < 1 Yeari

26.0%

~$10.21T · refinancing-risk gauge

Macro Bond

Real Rates & Credit

Real Rates & Inflation Expectations

10Y TIPS Reali

2.23% +9 bp

10Y nominal − inflation expectations

10Y Breakeveni

2.25% −1 bp

market-implied 10Y CPI

Credit Spreads

HY OASi

2.63% −8 bp

ICE BofA US HY

IG OASi

0.74% −1 bp

tight · late-cycle

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Cooling

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Truflation's daily US inflation tracker sits at 1.80% year-over-year, down 0.27 percentage points over the past month and 0.32 pp over the past year, continuing a cooling trend. The read remains 2.45 pp below the lagged official BLS CPI print of 4.2%, with transport costs contributing +0.74 pp to the headline figure as the largest single driver.

1.80%

Daily +0.01 pp

1-mo −0.27 pp

1-yr −0.32 pp

Daily Data By

About the number

Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.

Truflation data as of 2026-06-19

vs BLS CPI official 4.2% (May 2026, monthly · lagged) −2.45 ppbelow official print next BLS CPI: 14 Jul 2026

Index Components

12 basket categories · sorted by weight

Category	Inflation (YoY)i	Contributioni	Trend (1-mo)i
Housing 23.1% of basket	+0.11%	+0.03 pp	Heating +0.54 pp
Transport 19.8% of basket	+3.75%	+0.74 pp	Cooling −1.87 pp
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages 15.2% of basket	-0.04%	−0.01 pp	Cooling −0.38 pp
Health 8.8% of basket	+0.99%	+0.09 pp	Cooling −0.09 pp
Household Durables & Daily Use Items 7.1% of basket	+3.35%	+0.24 pp	Cooling −1.03 pp
Utilities 6.0% of basket	+2.84%	+0.17 pp	Heating +0.12 pp
Recreation & Culture 5.5% of basket	+2.59%	+0.14 pp	Heating +0.13 pp
Clothing & Footwear 3.8% of basket	+5.65%	+0.21 pp	Heating +0.19 pp
Other 3.4% of basket	+3.16%	+0.11 pp	Heating +0.68 pp
Communications 3.3% of basket	-0.06%	0.00 pp	Heating +2.35 pp
Education 2.3% of basket	+3.46%	+0.08 pp	Heating +0.38 pp
Alcohol & Tobacco 1.8% of basket	+4.05%	+0.07 pp	Heating +0.28 pp

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Offered

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

The JGB curve sits with the 2-year at 1.40%, the 10-year at 2.63% (up 2 bp today), and the 30-year at 3.74%, maintaining a steep 2s10s spread of +123 bp. The 10-year yield's modest rise keeps Japanese funding costs elevated relative to the BoJ's 0.75% policy rate, a dynamic that continues to shape the yen carry-trade backdrop as global flows weigh duration and funding-leg exposure.

JP2YiJGB 2Y

1.40%+0 bp

5D Range 1.40 — 1.42

1M Range 1.37 — 1.45

5-day Δ−3 bp YTD Δ+21 bp

JP10YiJGB 10Y

2.63%+2 bp

5D Range 2.59 — 2.65

1M Range 2.58 — 2.75

10–2 spread+123 bp YTD Δ+52 bp

JP30YiJGB 30Y

3.74%+3 bp

5D Range 3.71 — 3.77

1M Range 3.71 — 3.94

5-day Δ−9 bp YTD Δ+34 bp

04.7Commodities

Bearish

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy commodities sold off sharply, with WTI crude down 4.48% and Brent off 4.83%, while precious metals also declined with gold falling 1.72% to $4,172.90 and silver down 2.12% to $64.91. The broad retreat in both energy and safe-haven metals suggests a shift in macro positioning.

CLWTI Crude

$84.65−4.48%

5D Range $84.65 — $93.68

1M Range $84.65 — $112.25

50-DMAi−14.7% 200-DMAi+13.5% RSI(14)i34 YTDi+48.0%

COBrent

$84.36−4.83%

5D Range $84.36 — $95.73

1M Range $84.36 — $116.73

50-DMAi−22.3% 200-DMAi+4.5% RSI(14)i31 YTDi+36.1%

NGNatural Gas

$3.060%

5D Range $3.06 — $3.27

1M Range $2.89 — $3.34

50-DMAi+5.5% 200-DMAi−17.3% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+8.5%

XAUGold

$4,172.90−1.72%

5D Range $4,138.70 — $4,231.40

1M Range $4,114.00 — $4,593.00

50-DMAi−7.6% 200-DMAi−9.1% RSI(14)i36 YTDi−4.9%

XAGSilver

$64.91−2.12%

5D Range $63.35 — $65.94

1M Range $64.00 — $75.91

50-DMAi−13.8% 200-DMAi−4.9% RSI(14)i36 YTDi−10.8%

04.8Crypto Assets

Bullish

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Bitcoin edged up 0.25% to $63,639.99 while Ethereum gained 0.79% to $1,723.17 and Solana rallied 3.49% to $72.15, lifting total crypto market cap by 1.14%. Bitcoin dominance held at 56.1%, reflecting steady relative strength. Perpetual funding rates remain elevated at +2.68% APR for Bitcoin and +4.13% APR for Ethereum, indicating long positioning despite the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sitting at 23 (Extreme Fear). Spot ETF flows turned negative with Bitcoin shedding $91M and Ethereum $13M in the latest session, while DeFi total value locked rose a modest 0.34%.

BTCBitcoin

$63,639.99+0.25%

1D Range $63,281.52 — $63,759.15

1M Range $60,850.48 — $77,249.07

50-DMAi−12.8% 200-DMAi−17.5% 200-WMAi($62,243.60) +2.2% RSI(14)i38 % from ATHi−49.5% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.45

ETHEthereum

$1,723.17+0.79%

1D Range $1,702.95 — $1,728.19

1M Range $1,568.87 — $2,115.04

50-DMAi−14.9% 200-DMAi−27.7% 200-WMAi($2,470.81) −30.3% RSI(14)i40 % from ATHi−64.7% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.61

SOLSolana

$72.15+3.49%

1D Range $69.48 — $72.30

1M Range $62.15 — $85.65

50-DMAi−10.3% 200-DMAi−26.7% 200-WMAi($106.67) −32.4% RSI(14)i48 % from ATHi−75.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.84

ENAEthena

$0.0895+1.46%

1D Range $0.0864 — $0.0907

1M Range $0.0721 — $0.1119

50-DMAi−10.5% 200-DMAi−36.1% RSI(14)i49 % from ATHi−94.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−2.10

HYPEHyperliquid

$70.77+0.60%

1D Range $68.44 — $70.88

1M Range $53.28 — $74.47

50-DMAi+28.9% 200-DMAi+87.5% RSI(14)i60 % from ATHi−5.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.85

PUMPPump.fun

$0.001380−1.33%

1D Range $0.001355 — $0.001398

1M Range $0.001372 — $0.001832

50-DMAi−18.8% 200-DMAi−31.0% RSI(14)i38 % from ATHi−84.0% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.47

Crypto Market

Macro Indicators

Market Caps & Dominance

BTC Mcapi

$1.27T +0.25%

56.1% of total

ETH Mcap

$208.0B +0.79%

9.1% of total

Stablecoin Mcap

$313.9B +0.04%

circulating supply

Total Crypto Mcap

$2.27T +1.14%

global market cap

Trading Volumes (24h)

CEX Volume (spot)

$57.2B −14.10%

24h · CoinGecko aggregate

DEX Volume (spot)

$5.2B −30.01%

24h · DefiLlama all chains

CEX Volume (perp)

$146.2B −22.68%

24h · derivatives exchanges

Hyperliquid (perp)

$2.8B −34.72%

24h · 230+ markets

DeFi Activity

Global DeFi TVL

$72.6B +0.34%

all chains

Lending TVL

$37.0B +0.44%

money markets

DEX TVL

$11.6B −0.03%

liquidity pools

ETH Staking APR

2.39%

Lido stETH base rate

Leverage & Sentiment

BTC Fundingi

+2.68% APR longs pay

8h · Binance perp

ETH Fundingi

+4.13% APR longs pay

8h · Binance perp

BTC L/S Ratioi

1.20 large traders long

1.20× longs vs shorts

Crypto F&Gi

23 Extreme Fear

Δ +9 vs yesterday · 0-100

IPOR Rates

USDCi

3.51% −0.12 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.64%

USDTi

2.66% −0.97 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 2.65%

DAIi

3.77% +0.14 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.78%

WETHi

1.81% −0.00 pp vs avg

24h avg 1.81%

04.9Pre-IPO & Onchain Equity Perpsi

Neutrali

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Pre-IPO equity perpetuals on Hyperliquid show minimal premium divergence, with Anthropic marks +0.02% above oracle and OpenAI -0.42% below, averaging -0.20% across the cohort.

ANTHROPICi Anthropic

$1.62T 0.00% 24h

+0.02% vs oraclei

Oraclei$1.62T Last roundi$965B · May 2026 Financialsi$19.2B · Q1 26 P/S (oracle)i37.1× fwd · 84.3× TTM OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$0

OPENAIi OpenAI

$1.34T -0.62% 24h

-0.42% vs oraclei

Oraclei$1.34T Last roundi$852B · Mar 2026 Financialsi$24B · Mar 26 P/S (oracle)i55.9× OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$0

CRCLi Circle Internet

$80.42 +2.15% 24h

OIi411,577 Fundingi+32.0%/yr Vol 24h$3.0M

COINi Coinbase

$166.00 +1.41% 24h

OIi40,190 Fundingi+5.5%/yr Vol 24h$1.2M

MSTRi MicroStrategy

$114.59 +1.79% 24h

OIi248,611 Fundingi+66.9%/yr Vol 24h$6.2M

Sector-thematic equity baskets

MAG7i Magnificent 7

63.66 -1.05% 24h

OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$0

SEMISi Semiconductors

661.10 0.00% 24h

OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$0

DEFENSEi Defense

62.01 0.00% 24h

OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$0

ROBOTi Robotics

38.32 0.00% 24h

OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$0

NUCLEARi Nuclear

128.05 0.00% 24h

OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$0

04.10Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Distributing

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Crypto treasury holdings stand at 1,279,127 BTC (6.09% of supply, ~$81.4B), 7,632,605 ETH (6.32% of supply, ~$13.2B), and 18,483,376 SOL (3.19% of supply, ~$1.3B). Spot ETF flows turned negative over the past day and week, with Bitcoin shedding $91M and $142M respectively, Ethereum down $13M and $15M, while Solana bucked the trend with inflows of $3M and $7M.

Asset	Total Held	USD Value	% of Supply	Top Public Holders
₿ Bitcoin BTC	1.28 M BTC	$81.4 B	6.09%	Strategy 847k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 40k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ Ethereum ETH	7.63 M ETH	$13.2 B	6.32%	BitMine Immersion 5.62M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 151k
◎ Solana SOL	18.48 M SOL	$1.3 B	3.19%	Forward Industries 7.01M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M

Spot ETF Flows

Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP

BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…

AUM

$81.6 B

24h Flow−$91 M

7-day Flow−$142 M

YTD Flowi−$3.15 B

ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…

AUM

$9.5 B

24h Flow−$13 M

7-day Flow−$15 M

YTD Flowi−$1.14 B

SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…

AUM

$701.0 M

24h Flow+$3 M

7-day Flow+$7 M

YTD Flowi−$36 M

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Asset	Last	Trendi	Supporti	Resistancei	RSIi	RSI Status	Signal
SPX S&P 500	7,500.58	Bullish	7,315.63	7,511.07	55	Neutral	Buyconf 75%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp.	26,517.93	Bullish	25,552.31	26,559.74	56	Neutral	Buyconf 75%
DXY Dollar Index	112.56	USD ↑	111.47	113.04	60	Neutral	Sellconf 60%
VIX Volatility	16.78	Suppressed	16.72	17.79	46	Neutral	Hedgeconf 70%
US10Y US 10Y Yield	4.49%	Yields ↑	4.43%	4.49%	51	Neutral	Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude	$84.65	Sideways	$74.56	$99.28	34	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold	$4,173	Bearish	$4,139	$4,517	36	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin	$63,640	Bearish	$63,282	$72,941	38	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
ETH Ethereum	$1,723	Bearish	$1,703	$2,025	40	Neutral	Sellconf 75%

06Key Events

Next 7 days

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Four high-impact US macro releases land Thursday, June 25 at 12:30 ET: Personal Spending and Personal Income for May, Durable Goods Orders, and the Core PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge). No mega-cap earnings are scheduled in the coming week, leaving the macro calendar as the primary driver.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Durable Goods Orders MoM (May)Est: -4.70 % · prev 7.90 % High
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PCE Price Index MoM (May)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.20 % High
Wed
14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST New Home Sales (May)Est: 2.90 % · prev -6.20 % Medium
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/20)Est: 225 K · prev 226 K Medium
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PCE Price Index YoY (May)Est: 4 % · prev 3.80 % Medium
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (May)Est: 0.50 % · prev 1.10 % Medium
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST PCE Price Index MoM (May)Est: 0.40 % · prev 0.40 % Medium
Fri
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Goods Trade Balance (May)prev -83.01 B Medium
Fri
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)Est: -85 B · prev -83 B Medium
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (May)Est: -3.90 % · prev 8.10 % Low
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)Est: 3.30 % · prev 3.30 % Low

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

No mega-cap earnings on the watchlist this week.

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Mid-cyclei

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Daily reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018).

Today's read

The economy stays vibrant with PMIs above 54 and positive payrolls, and Capital Markets plus Yield Spreads remain warm on stretched valuations (CAPE 41.54, HY OAS 278bp). Interest Rates, Terms, and Investors are clearly cold, anchored by a 2.21% real yield and equity Fear-and-Greed at 27.8.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 19 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Refreshed 20 Jun 2026 06:42 UTC · 08:42 CEST Sources ⓘ

Add selectively. Crypto fear extreme, bonds attractive; equities stretched

The cycle sits mid-phase with warm capital markets (CAPE 41.71, HY OAS 263bp) and cold investor sentiment (equity Fear & Greed 37.3, crypto 23). That divergence opens pockets. Crypto shows Extreme Fear at 23 while Bitcoin holds 2.2% above its 200-week moving average and funding sits near zero (0.002%), a classic asymmetric setup; add small on dips. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.23% and the 30-year nominal at 4.93% make duration attractive for the first time in months. Equities are a different story: the S&P 500 at 7,501 trades 32.2x trailing earnings against a 16.2x long-run mean, and today's 2.7pp sector spread (Utilities +1.26%, Industrials -1.44%) signals rotation fatigue, not broad strength. Intel's 10.6% rip and AMD's 4.9% gain per Nasdaq's US-Iran peace-deal framing amplify the chase narrative, but stretched valuations argue against broad adds here. Hold equities, add selectively in bonds and crypto on fear.

24h Bias

Add selectively

Equities

Hold, valuations stretched

Bonds

Add duration, real yield 2.23%

Commodities

Wait, WTI down 4.5% on peace deal

Crypto

Add small, Extreme Fear at 23

Vol hedge

Hold, VIX 16.78 not stretched

Equities Rally On Iran Deal, Commodities Tumble

01Daily Summary

02Macro Snapshot

03News Sentiment

04.1Tech Equitiesi

04.2Recent IPOs

04.3Indices

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Index Components

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

04.7Commodities

04.8Crypto Assets

04.9Pre-IPO & Onchain Equity Perpsi

Sector-thematic equity baskets

04.10Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

05Technical Dashboard

06Key Events

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

08Daily Alpha

Add selectively. Crypto fear extreme, bonds attractive; equities stretched