Daily Market Report

Equities Rally, Commodities Crack, Crypto Fears Deepen

Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST

01Daily Summary

Mixed Signals
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

A sharp VIX drop to 16.40 (down 11%) and the S&P 500 climbing to 7,501 (+1.08%) tell one story; collapsing commodities and extreme crypto fear tell another. WTI crude fell 4.48% to $84.65, gold shed 2.21% to $4,151.90, and silver dropped 3.84% - a broad precious-metals and energy unwind consistent with a geopolitical de-escalation read. Meanwhile, the crypto Fear and Greed index sits at 14 (Extreme Fear) with Bitcoin ETF outflows of $90.7 million in 24 hours, a stark divergence from equity calm.

S&P 500+1.08%NASDAQ+1.91%US10Y+6 bpWTI−4.48%Gold−2.21%BTC−0.66%ETH−1.13%DXY−0.43%VIX−11.06%

02Macro Snapshot

Stagflation risk rising
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Benchmark Rates Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Fed Ratei 3.50 – 3.75 % unchanged 17 Jun 2026 29 Jul 2026 Fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% supports moderate risk asset pricing.
ECB Ratei 2.25 % +25 bp 11 Jun 2026 23 Jul 2026 ECB rate hike to 2.25% pressures European risk assets and lifts rates.
BoJ Ratei 0.75 % unchanged 16 Jun 2026 31 Jul 2026 BoJ rate at 0.75% increases unwind pressure on JPY carry trade.
SOFRi 3.63 % unchanged daily tomorrow SOFR at 3.63% indicates stable short-end USD funding conditions.
IPOR USDCi 3.54 % −9 bp real-time — USDC IPOR at 3.54% below SOFR signals deleveraging or yield seeking.
IPOR WETHi 1.82 % −1 bp real-time — WETH IPOR at 1.82% shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei 2.39 % — real-time — ETH staking yield at 2.39% reflects steady validator demand.
Inflation Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
TruCPI-US (headline)i 1.79 % -0.02 pp daily daily Truflation CPI at 1.79% shows live inflation running cooler.
CPI YoY (headline)i 4.2 % +0.4 pp 10 Jun 2026 14 Jul 2026 Headline CPI at 4.2% keeps Fed cautious about further cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i 2.9 % +0.1 pp 10 Jun 2026 14 Jul 2026 Core CPI at 2.9% indicates moderate underlying inflation stickiness.
PPI YoY (headline)i 6.4 % +0.8 pp 11 Jun 2026 15 Jul 2026 PPI at 6.4% signals accelerating upstream inflation ahead of CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i 4.9 % +0.0 pp 11 Jun 2026 15 Jul 2026 Core PPI at 4.9% reveals persistent upstream inflation above core CPI.
Labor Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) 159.00 M jobs +172 k 5 Jun 2026 2 Jul 2026 Nonfarm payrolls rise of 172k signals resilient labor market strength.
Unemployment Ratei 4.3 % unchanged pp 5 Jun 2026 2 Jul 2026 Unemployment at 4.3% points to increasing labor market slack.
Activity Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY) +1.7 % +0.3 pp 15 Jun 2026 17 Jul 2026 Industrial production up 1.7% YoY shows solid manufacturing activity.
Retail Salesi (m/m) +1.0 % +0.7 pp 17 Jun 2026 16 Jul 2026 Retail sales up 1.0% m/m reflect strong consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi 54.0 +1.3 May 2026 — ISM manufacturing at 54.0 indicates factory sector expansion.
ISM Services PMIi 54.5 +0.9 May 2026 — ISM services at 54.5 signals services sector expansion.
Yield Curve Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi 29 bp — daily tomorrow Positive curve. Recession odds receding.
Sentiment Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) 37 (Fear) unchanged daily tomorrow CNN Fear & Greed at 37 reflects equity market Fear regime.
Crypto Fear & Greedi 14 (Extreme Fear) −1 daily tomorrow Crypto Fear & Greed at 14 signals Extreme Fear opportunity.
News Sentimenti −5 (Fear) +21 every 30 min — News sentiment at -5 indicates Fear narrative diverging from markets.

03News Sentiment

Fear
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −32 to +46 · current −5 (Fear) · +21 24h
7 days ago today
Direction
bull 45% bear 55% ± 13% uncertainty
Coverage
macro 55% crypto 31% mixed 14%
What's driving today's news sentiment Top 4 · sorted by impact
−40 Bearish short-term
Bitcoin dips below $63K amid broad crypto sell-off and fading weekly gains
Bitcoin falls below $63,000 as crypto market sells off broadly following risk-off sentiment and fading weekly bounce, with uncertainty about an upcoming altseason after recent macro shocks.
coindesk.comconf 85% BTCAlt-L1sMarket-Wide
+33 Bullish HIVE Digital signs $220M AI GPU deal with Bell Canada for sovereign enterprise compute newsbtc.com
−24 Bearish Indian IT Stocks Fall Sharply After Accenture Cuts Revenue Forecast nasdaq.com
−18 Neutral Supertankers with 80M barrels poised to navigate Strait of Hormuz, easing oil supply concerns bloomberg.com

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bullish
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The entire nine-name tech cohort is green today, with Intel leading at +10.64% and Advanced Micro Devices adding +4.86%, pulling the semiconductor names sharply higher. Nvidia gains +2.95% and Amazon +2.90%, while Microsoft is the relative laggard at +0.13%. Breadth is clean across the group; this is a broad-based session, not a single-name story.

AAPLApple
$298.01+0.70%
1D Range $295.62 — $300.57
1M Range $290.55 — $315.20
P/E TTMi35.8 P/E Fwdi30.9 50-DMAi+3.2% 200-DMAi+11.1% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+10.0% % from ATHi−6.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.51
MSFTMicrosoft
$379.40+0.13%
1D Range $373.28 — $381.37
1M Range $378.91 — $460.52
P/E TTMi22.5 P/E Fwdi19.5 50-DMAi−8.1% 200-DMAi−15.9% RSI(14)i35 YTDi−19.8% % from ATHi−31.7% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.53
GOOGLAlphabet
$368.03+1.17%
1D Range $358.67 — $369.48
1M Range $356.38 — $390.13
P/E TTMi27.8 P/E Fwdi25.9 50-DMAi+0.2% 200-DMAi+18.3% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+16.8% % from ATHi−9.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.71
AMZNAmazon
$244.39+2.90%
1D Range $236.02 — $245.73
1M Range $237.50 — $274.00
P/E TTMi28.9 P/E Fwdi27.8 50-DMAi−4.9% 200-DMAi+5.0% RSI(14)i44 YTDi+7.9% % from ATHi−12.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.69
NVDANVIDIA
$210.69+2.95%
1D Range $206.50 — $211.38
1M Range $200.42 — $224.36
P/E TTMi32.1 P/E Fwdi23.6 50-DMAi+0.7% 200-DMAi+10.9% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+11.6% % from ATHi−10.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.36
METAMeta Platforms
$577.22+1.70%
1D Range $563.10 — $580.20
1M Range $566.98 — $635.29
P/E TTMi20.7 P/E Fwdi17.5 50-DMAi−7.2% 200-DMAi−11.9% RSI(14)i43 YTDi−11.3% % from ATHi−27.5% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.11
TSLATesla
$400.49+1.04%
1D Range $384.70 — $402.52
1M Range $381.59 — $442.10
P/E TTMi334.2 P/E Fwdi212.2 50-DMAi−0.5% 200-DMAi−4.0% RSI(14)i47 YTDi−8.6% % from ATHi−19.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.54
INTCIntel
$133.99+10.64%
1D Range $127.90 — $135.48
1M Range $99.17 — $133.99
P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi123.6 50-DMAi+32.1% 200-DMAi+141.4% RSI(14)i64 YTDi+240.2% % from ATHi−1.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.66
AMDAMD
$537.37+4.86%
1D Range $526.32 — $539.69
1M Range $447.58 — $547.26
P/E TTMi175.0 P/E Fwdi72.0 50-DMAi+30.7% 200-DMAi+105.8% RSI(14)i61 YTDi+140.5% % from ATHi−3.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.49

04.2Recent IPOs

Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
SPCXSpaceX
IPO'd 12 Jun 2026
$185.00−3.56%
1D Range $172.11 — $190.00
1M Range $160.95 — $201.80
Mkt Capi$2.42T IPO-day Vali$2.10T IPO-to-Datei+14.9% Floati638.9M · 4.9% P/E TTMi−149.6 P/E FwdiFY28E · 402x % from ATHi−18.0%

04.3Indices

Bullishi
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

US equities are broadly higher, led by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) surging +6.62% and the Russell 2000 adding +2.12%, with the Nasdaq up +1.91% and the S&P 500 +1.08% while the Dow lags at +0.14%. The SPX cap-weighted YTD gap over equal-weight RSP has narrowed to just +0.50 percentage points, signaling that today's rally is genuinely broad rather than Mag7-driven. VIX drops over 11% to 16.4, reflecting a meaningful compression in near-term fear. World markets are telling a different story: the FTSE fell -1.04%, the Hang Seng -1.59%, and the Nikkei -0.68%, though emerging markets (EEM) bucked the trend with a +3.25% gain.

US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,500.58+1.08%
1D Range 7,468.32 — 7,511.07
1M Range 7,267.00 — 7,609.77
50-DMAi+2.5% 200-DMAi+8.7% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+9.4% % from ATHi−1.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.81
IXICNasdaq Comp.
26,517.93+1.91%
1D Range 26,188.69 — 26,559.74
1M Range 25,169.50 — 27,093.90
50-DMAi+3.8% 200-DMAi+12.7% RSI(14)i56 YTDi+14.1% % from ATHi−2.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.84
DJIDow Jones Ind.
51,564.70+0.14%
1D Range 51,554.53 — 51,949.26
1M Range 49,918.79 — 51,999.68
50-DMAi+3.3% 200-DMAi+7.1% RSI(14)i59 YTDi+6.6% % from ATHi−1.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.52
RUTRussell 2000
2,979.77+2.12%
1D Range 2,939.82 — 2,980.60
1M Range 2,817.36 — 2,979.77
50-DMAi+5.2% 200-DMAi+14.7% RSI(14)i61 YTDi+18.8% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+1.75
SOXXSemiconductors
639.45+6.62%
1D Range 626.16 — 644.43
1M Range 520.31 — 639.45
50-DMAi+25.8% 200-DMAi+77.6% RSI(14)i64 YTDi+103.8% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+2.87
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
209.96+0.46%
1D Range 209.77 — 211.29
1M Range 203.83 — 212.88
50-DMAi+2.5% 200-DMAi+7.1% RSI(14)i56 YTDi+8.9% vs SPX YTDi−0.5pp Cap-weight sharei+5%
VIXiVolatility Idx
16.40−11.06%
1D Range 16.35 — 17.60
1M Range 15.32 — 22.22
50-DMAi−8.1% 200-DMAi−11.6% RSI(14)i46 YTDi+13.0%
MOVEiMOVE Index
69.36−0.13%
5D Range 69.36 — 77.03
1M Range 69.36 — 86.07
50-DMAi−5.7% 200-DMAi−5.3% RSI(14)i43 YTDi+11.2%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
112.56−0.43%
5D Range 112.56 — 113.04
1M Range 111.19 — 113.04
50-DMAi+1.0% 200-DMAi+1.0% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+1.2%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,399.70−1.04%
1D Range 10,376.59 — 10,510.16
1M Range 10,227.33 — 10,508.61
50-DMAi−0.1% 200-DMAi+3.9% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+4.5% % from ATHi−4.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.63
N225Nikkei 225
70,573.09−0.68%
1D Range 70,573.09 — 71,952.99
1M Range 63,339.07 — 71,053.49
50-DMAi+13.4% 200-DMAi+32.1% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+36.3% % from ATHi−0.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.50
HSIHang Seng
23,924.81−1.59%
1D Range 23,749.99 — 24,163.25
1M Range 23,924.82 — 26,038.33
50-DMAi−6.6% 200-DMAi−8.0% RSI(14)i33 YTDi−9.2% % from ATHi−14.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.19
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
202.73+0.87%
1D Range 202.20 — 203.17
1M Range 197.44 — 206.18
50-DMAi+1.9% 200-DMAi+7.7% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+8.7% % from ATHi−1.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.70
EEMMSCI Emerging
70.79+3.25%
1D Range 69.97 — 70.92
1M Range 64.59 — 70.80
50-DMAi+7.8% 200-DMAi+21.2% RSI(14)i62 YTDi+25.9% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+1.94
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
41.7Overvalued
+0.80% today
Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−5.6%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
32.2Overvalued
+0.80% today
Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP
218.5Overvalued
 
Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.5%
Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst
Utilities+1.27%
Tech+0.94%
Discretionary+0.88%
Telecom+0.61%
Energy−0.79%
Healthcare−0.94%
Staples−0.96%
Real Estate−1.00%
Materials−1.09%
Financials−1.14%
Industrials−1.44%

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

Offered
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The front end of the Treasury curve is selling off hard, with the 2-year yield jumping 15 basis points to 4.20%, while the 10-year adds 6 basis points to 4.49% and the 30-year holds flat at 4.93%, steepening the 2s10s spread to +29 basis points. The move is predominantly real: the 10-year TIPS real yield rises 9 basis points to 2.23% while the 10-year breakeven slips 1 basis point to 2.25%, meaning tighter financial conditions rather than a re-pricing of inflation expectations are driving the selloff. Credit markets are moving in the opposite direction, with high-yield OAS tightening 8 basis points to 263 and investment-grade OAS in by 1 basis point to 74, a divergence that points to risk appetite holding firm even as duration is being repriced.

US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.20%+15 bp
5D Range 4.05 — 4.20
1M Range 3.98 — 4.20
5-day Δ+7 bp YTD Δ+73 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.49%+6 bp
5D Range 4.43 — 4.49
1M Range 4.43 — 4.67
10–2 spread+29 bp YTD Δ+30 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
4.93%0 bp
5D Range 4.93 — 4.97
1M Range 4.93 — 5.18
5-day Δ−10 bp YTD Δ+7 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.28T -$6.8B (1d)
+8.5% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.32T +10.4% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.35%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.35% +0.06pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
26.0%
~$10.21T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.23% +9 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.25% −1 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.63% −8 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.74% −1 bp
tight · late-cycle

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Cooling
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Truflation's daily real-time read sits at 1.79% year-over-year, down 0.23 percentage points over the past month and 0.33 points over the past year, sustaining a cooling trend. That reading sits 2.46 percentage points below the official BLS CPI print of 4.2%, with transport contributing the largest upward pressure at +0.76 percentage points to the headline.

1.79%
Daily −0.02 pp
1-mo −0.23 pp
1-yr −0.33 pp
Daily Data By
About the number
Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.
Truflation data as of 2026-06-18
vs BLS CPI official 4.2% (May 2026, monthly · lagged) −2.46 ppbelow official print next BLS CPI: 14 Jul 2026

Index Components

12 basket categories · sorted by weight
Category Inflation (YoY)i Contributioni Trend (1-mo)i
Housing
23.1% of basket
 +0.03%
+0.01 pp
Heating +0.51 pp
Transport
19.8% of basket
 +3.84%
+0.76 pp
Cooling −1.73 pp
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
 -0.09%
−0.01 pp
Cooling −0.29 pp
Health
8.8% of basket
 +0.99%
+0.09 pp
Cooling −0.09 pp
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
 +3.35%
+0.24 pp
Cooling −1.03 pp
Utilities
6.0% of basket
 +2.84%
+0.17 pp
Heating +0.12 pp
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
 +2.59%
+0.14 pp
Heating +0.13 pp
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
 +5.65%
+0.21 pp
Heating +0.19 pp
Other
3.4% of basket
 +3.16%
+0.11 pp
Heating +0.68 pp
Communications
3.3% of basket
 -0.06%
0.00 pp
Heating +2.35 pp
Education
2.3% of basket
 +3.46%
+0.08 pp
Heating +0.38 pp
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
 +4.05%
+0.07 pp
Heating +0.28 pp

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Offered
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The JGB curve is steepening at the long end, with the 10-year yield at 2.63% (up 2 basis points on the day), the 30-year at 3.74%, and the 2-year at 1.40%, producing a 2s10s spread of +123 basis points. With the BoJ policy rate anchored at 0.75%, the gap between the policy rate and the 10-year JGB is wide, keeping the yen carry-trade funding cost elevated relative to recent history. The curve's steepness reflects ongoing duration pressure at the long end rather than any shift in the short-end anchor.

JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.40%+0 bp
5D Range 1.40 — 1.42
1M Range 1.37 — 1.45
5-day Δ−3 bp YTD Δ+21 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.63%+2 bp
5D Range 2.59 — 2.65
1M Range 2.58 — 2.75
10–2 spread+123 bp YTD Δ+52 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
3.74%+3 bp
5D Range 3.71 — 3.77
1M Range 3.71 — 3.94
5-day Δ−9 bp YTD Δ+34 bp

04.7Commodities

Bearish
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy is under significant pressure today, with WTI crude falling -4.48% and Brent off -4.83%, a sharp move that dominates the commodity complex. Precious metals are also retreating, with Gold (XAU) down -2.21% to $4,151.90 and Silver declining -3.84% to $63.77, suggesting broad risk-off selling in hard assets rather than an energy-specific story.

CLWTI Crude
$84.65−4.48%
5D Range $84.65 — $93.68
1M Range $84.65 — $112.25
50-DMAi−14.7% 200-DMAi+13.5% RSI(14)i34 YTDi+48.0%
COBrent
$84.36−4.83%
5D Range $84.36 — $95.73
1M Range $84.36 — $116.73
50-DMAi−22.3% 200-DMAi+4.5% RSI(14)i31 YTDi+36.1%
NGNatural Gas
$3.060%
5D Range $3.06 — $3.27
1M Range $2.89 — $3.34
50-DMAi+5.5% 200-DMAi−17.3% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+8.5%
XAUGold
$4,151.90−2.21%
5D Range $4,150.70 — $4,231.40
1M Range $4,114.00 — $4,593.00
50-DMAi−8.5% 200-DMAi−9.6% RSI(14)i35 YTDi−5.3%
XAGSilver
$63.77−3.84%
5D Range $63.76 — $65.94
1M Range $63.86 — $75.91
50-DMAi−15.5% 200-DMAi−6.4% RSI(14)i34 YTDi−12.3%

04.8Crypto Assets

Bearish
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Crypto is broadly lower, with Bitcoin off -0.66% to $62,467.56, Ethereum down -1.13% to $1,689.90, and Solana falling -1.79% to $68.38, as total crypto market cap sheds -1.97% over 24 hours. Spot ETF flows are negative on both BTC (-$91M) and ETH (-$13M), adding to the selling pressure, while global DeFi TVL drops -1.73%. BTC dominance holds at 56.0%, and the crypto fear and greed index sits at 14 (Extreme Fear), reflecting a market in defensive positioning. Perp funding on BTC is modestly positive at +2.91% APR while ETH funding is essentially flat at -0.07% APR, suggesting no aggressive directional conviction in derivatives.

BTCBitcoin
$62,467.56−0.66%
1D Range $62,346.18 — $63,021.74
1M Range $60,850.48 — $77,547.62
50-DMAi−14.7% 200-DMAi−19.1% 200-WMAi($62,237.25) +0.4% RSI(14)i34 % from ATHi−50.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.52
ETHEthereum
$1,689.90−1.13%
1D Range $1,684.69 — $1,716.01
1M Range $1,568.87 — $2,131.96
50-DMAi−17.0% 200-DMAi−29.3% 200-WMAi($2,470.63) −31.6% RSI(14)i37 % from ATHi−65.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.68
SOLSolana
$68.38−1.79%
1D Range $68.14 — $69.95
1M Range $62.15 — $87.27
50-DMAi−15.3% 200-DMAi−30.7% 200-WMAi($106.65) −35.9% RSI(14)i40 % from ATHi−76.7% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.97
ENAEthena
$0.0879−8.00%
1D Range $0.0877 — $0.0959
1M Range $0.0721 — $0.1119
50-DMAi−12.1% 200-DMAi−37.2% RSI(14)i47 % from ATHi−94.2% Sharpe(1Y)i−2.15
HYPEHyperliquid
$65.83−3.55%
1D Range $65.59 — $68.25
1M Range $53.28 — $74.47
50-DMAi+21.1% 200-DMAi+75.2% RSI(14)i54 % from ATHi−12.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.74
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001387−4.64%
1D Range $0.001386 — $0.001509
1M Range $0.001372 — $0.001832
50-DMAi−18.4% 200-DMAi−30.7% RSI(14)i38 % from ATHi−83.9% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.47
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.25T −0.66%
56.0% of total
ETH Mcap
$204.0B −1.13%
9.1% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$313.8B +0.05%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.24T −1.97%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$80.7B −11.24%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$7.5B +3.61%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$245.1B −14.85%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$6.1B −16.27%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$72.2B −1.73%
all chains
Lending TVL
$36.8B −1.84%
money markets
DEX TVL
$11.6B −0.75%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.39%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+2.91% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
−0.07% APR balanced
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.17 large traders long
1.17× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
14 Extreme Fear
Δ −1 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.54% −0.09 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.67%
USDTi
2.62% −1.01 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 2.62%
DAIi
3.83% +0.20 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.83%
WETHi
1.82% −0.01 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.83%

04.9Pre-IPO & Onchain Equity Perpsi

Neutrali
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Both Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO perpetuals are trading at 0.00% premium to their oracle values, placing the average premium at +0.00% and the section in a neutral stance.

ANTHROPICi Anthropic
$1.62T -0.02% 24h
0.00% vs oraclei
Oraclei$1.62T Last roundi$965B · May 2026 Financialsi$19.2B · Q1 26 P/S (oracle)i37.1× fwd · 84.3× TTM OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$0
OPENAIi OpenAI
$1.34T -0.20% 24h
0.00% vs oraclei
Oraclei$1.34T Last roundi$852B · Mar 2026 Financialsi$24B · Mar 26 P/S (oracle)i55.9× OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$0
CRCLi Circle Internet
$78.41 -2.99% 24h
OIi410,588 Fundingi-519.9%/yr Vol 24h$22.1M
COINi Coinbase
$162.49 -2.17% 24h
OIi39,727 Fundingi-178.3%/yr Vol 24h$5.8M
MSTRi MicroStrategy
$112.27 -4.37% 24h
OIi243,285 Fundingi+63.8%/yr Vol 24h$42.0M

Sector-thematic equity baskets

MAG7i Magnificent 7
65.52 +4.47% 24h
OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$56k
SEMISi Semiconductors
659.88 +3.99% 24h
OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$38k
DEFENSEi Defense
62.32 -1.81% 24h
OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$2k
ROBOTi Robotics
38.37 -1.86% 24h
OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$3k
NUCLEARi Nuclear
126.76 -1.01% 24h
OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$20

04.10Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Distributing
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Institutional and ETF-level flows are net negative on the day: BTC spot ETFs see $91M in outflows and ETH ETFs lose $13M, while SOL ETFs attract a modest $3M inflow. On a 7-day basis the picture is consistent, with BTC at -$142M and ETH at -$15M, though SOL holds a small positive at +$7M. Corporate treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,279,127 BTC (6.09% of supply), 7,632,605 ETH (6.32% of supply), and 18,483,376 SOL (3.19% of supply) held across tracked entities.

Asset Total Held USD Value % of Supply Top Public Holders
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
 1.28 M BTC $79.8 B 6.09% Strategy 847k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 40k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
 7.63 M ETH $12.9 B 6.32% BitMine Immersion 5.62M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 151k
◎
Solana
SOL
 18.48 M SOL $1.3 B 3.19% Forward Industries 7.01M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB… Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM) 1. IBIT BlackRock $48.0 B 2. FBTC Fidelity $13.4 B 3. GBTC Grayscale $8.8 B 4. BTC Grayscale Mini $3.4 B 5. ARKB ARK 21Shares $2.8 B + 8 more Flow data as of 18 Jun 2026
AUM
$81.6 B
24h Flow−$91 M
7-day Flow−$142 M
YTD Flowi−$3.15 B
ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH… Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM) 1. ETHA BlackRock $4.8 B 2. ETH Grayscale Mini $1.5 B 3. ETHE Grayscale $1.4 B 4. FETH Fidelity $994.2 M 5. ETHB BlackRock $531.2 M + 5 more Flow data as of 18 Jun 2026
AUM
$9.5 B
24h Flow−$13 M
7-day Flow−$15 M
YTD Flowi−$1.14 B
SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL… Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM) 1. BSOL Bitwise $582.5 M 2. GSOL Grayscale $95.1 M 3. VSOL VanEck $13.1 M 4. SOEZ Franklin $8.2 M 5. TSOL VanEck $2.6 M + 1 more Flow data as of 18 Jun 2026
AUM
$701.4 M
24h Flow+$3 M
7-day Flow+$7 M
YTD Flowi−$36 M

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Asset Last Trendi Supporti Resistancei RSIi RSI Status Signal
SPX S&P 500 7,500.58 Bullish 7,315.63 7,511.07 55 Neutral Buyconf 75%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp. 26,517.93 Bullish 25,552.31 26,559.74 56 Neutral Buyconf 75%
DXY Dollar Index 112.56 USD ↑ 111.47 113.04 60 Neutral Sellconf 60%
VIX Volatility 16.40 Suppressed 16.35 17.85 46 Neutral Hedgeconf 70%
US10Y US 10Y Yield 4.49% Yields ↑ 4.43% 4.49% 51 Neutral Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude $84.65 Sideways $74.56 $99.28 34 Neutral Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold $4,152 Bearish $4,151 $4,538 35 Neutral Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin $62,468 Bearish $62,346 $73,199 34 Neutral Sellconf 65%
ETH Ethereum $1,690 Bearish $1,685 $2,036 37 Neutral Sellconf 75%

06Key Events

Next 7 days
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The week's macro calendar is back-loaded, with three high-impact US data releases all landing simultaneously on June 25: Personal Income MoM, Core PCE Price Index MoM, and Durable Goods Orders MoM for May. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and will draw the most attention given the current divergence between real-time and official inflation reads. No mega-cap earnings are scheduled in the next seven days.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Price Index MoM (May)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.20 % High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders MoM (May)Est: -3.20 % · prev 7.90 % High
  • Wed
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     New Home Sales (May)Est: 0.64 M · prev 0.62 M Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Price Index MoM (May)Est: 0.40 % · prev 0.40 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Price Index YoY (May)Est: 4 % · prev 3.80 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/20)Est: 225 K · prev 226 K Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (May)Est: 0.20 % · prev 1.10 % Medium
  • Fri, Jun 26 Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)Est: -81 B · prev -83 B Medium
  • Fri, Jun 26 Goods Trade Balance (May)prev -83.01 B Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)Est: 3.30 % · prev 3.30 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (May)Est: -3.90 % · prev 8.10 % Low
1 / 2

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

No mega-cap earnings on the watchlist this week.

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Mid-cyclei
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Daily reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018).

Today's read

The economy stays vibrant with PMIs above 54 and positive payrolls, and Capital Markets plus Yield Spreads remain warm on stretched valuations (CAPE 41.54, HY OAS 278bp). Interest Rates, Terms, and Investors are clearly cold, anchored by a 2.21% real yield and equity Fear-and-Greed at 27.8.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 19 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Add Selectively
Refreshed 19 Jun 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Add selectively: crypto Extreme Fear and semis dislocation offer asymmetric entry points

Today's tape is split in a way that rewards precision. The S&P 500 closed at 7,501, up 1.08%, but the cap-weighted index outpaced the equal-weight version by a meaningful margin, with Industrials down 1.44% and Financial Services down 1.14% while Technology gained 0.94% - a 2.38-point sector spread that signals rotation, not broad conviction. Intel surged 10.64% and Advanced Micro Devices 4.86% on what per Nasdaq.com is a US-Iran peace deal narrative easing inflation fears; that macro tailwind also crushed WTI crude 4.48% and gold 2.21%. The cycle reads Mid-cycle, but the Interest Rates and Investor sub-indicators are cold: a 2.23% real yield and equity Fear and Greed at 37.3 are not conditions for chasing equities at a trailing price-to-earnings of 32.23 (long-run mean: 16.23). The genuine opportunity is in crypto: Bitcoin's Fear and Greed index sits at 14 (Extreme Fear), Bitcoin is trading at 62,468 - just 0.37% above its 200-week moving average - ETF flows are negative, and funding rates are near zero. That is a historically asymmetric setup. Add crypto small; hold equities; avoid commodities until the peace-deal repricing settles.

24h Bias
Add crypto small; hold everything else
Equities
Hold; wait for equal-weight breadth to confirm
Bonds
Add small at 4.93% on the 30-year
Commodities
Avoid; peace-deal repricing not complete
Crypto
Add Bitcoin near 200-week average support
Vol hedge
Trim; VIX at 16.40 after 11% collapse