01Daily Summary

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

A geopolitical catalyst drove the S&P 500 up 1.65% to 7,554, with the VIX dropping 8.4% to 16.20 and high-yield credit spreads (HY OAS) tightening 7 basis points to 271 bp. Yet the crypto Fear and Greed index sits at 23 (Extreme Fear), Bitcoin ETFs bled $64.8 million in 24 hours, and the 10-year real yield holds at 2.17%. Equities are celebrating; crypto and rates are not. The divergence keeps the regime call firmly in Mixed Signals territory.

S&P 500+1.65%NASDAQ+3.07%US10Y+3 bpWTI+0.72%Gold−0.21%BTC+0.26%ETH+2.33%DXY−0.43%VIX−8.37%

Driver:A US-Iran peace agreement triggered broad equity gains, compressing volatility and tightening credit spreads across risk assets.
Cross-asset:Equities surged; VIX fell to 16.20; HY OAS tightened to 271 bp; DXY slipped 0.43%; WTI crude held near $95.00; Bitcoin barely moved at $65,834.
Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 4.97%; 2s10s spread at 39 bp; 10-year real yield 2.17%; 10-year breakeven 2.32%; IPOR USDC rate 3.49% - financing costs remain restrictive.
Sentiment:Equity Fear and Greed at 40.8 (Fear); crypto Fear and Greed at 23 (Extreme Fear); VIX easing; Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.22; funding rates slightly negative.
Forward bias:Fed interest rate decision and FOMC projections due June 17 at 18:00 UTC, plus US Retail Sales (May). A hawkish Fed dot plot would flip equities lower.

02Macro Snapshot

Stagflation risk rising

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Benchmark Rates	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Fed Ratei	3.50 – 3.75 %	unchanged	29 Apr 2026	17 Jun 2026	Fed funds at 3.50-3.75% signals steady policy for risk assets.
ECB Ratei	2.25 %	—	—	23 Jul 2026	ECB rate at 2.25% supports European risk assets and lower EUR rates.
BoJ Ratei	0.75 %	unchanged	16 Jun 2026	31 Jul 2026	BoJ rate at 0.75% keeps JPY carry trade attractive for global risk.
SOFRi	3.65 %	+5 bp	daily	tomorrow	SOFR at 3.65% with +5 bp rise tightens short-end USD funding conditions.
IPOR USDCi	3.49 %	−16 bp	real-time	—	USDC IPOR at 3.49% below SOFR indicates deleveraging in onchain USD leverage.
IPOR WETHi	1.85 %	+1 bp	real-time	—	WETH IPOR at 1.85% shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei	2.34 %	—	real-time	—	ETH staking yield at 2.34% reflects current validator demand and fee revenue.

Inflation	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
CPI YoY (headline)i	4.2 %	+0.4 pp	10 Jun 2026	14 Jul 2026	Headline CPI at 4.2% keeps Fed cautious about further cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i	2.9 %	+0.1 pp	10 Jun 2026	14 Jul 2026	Core CPI at 2.9% shows moderate stickiness in underlying inflation.
PPI YoY (headline)i	6.4 %	+0.8 pp	11 Jun 2026	15 Jul 2026	PPI at 6.4% indicates upstream inflation running hotter than CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i	4.9 %	+0.0 pp	11 Jun 2026	15 Jul 2026	Core PPI at 4.9% reveals persistent upstream inflation above core CPI.

Labor	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m)	159.00 M jobs	+172 k	5 Jun 2026	2 Jul 2026	NFP at +172k signals moderate labor market strength.
Unemployment Ratei	4.3 %	unchanged pp	5 Jun 2026	2 Jul 2026	Unemployment at 4.3% points to rising slack in the labor market.

Activity	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY)	+1.7 %	+0.3 pp	15 Jun 2026	17 Jul 2026	Industrial production at +1.7% YoY reflects modest manufacturing activity.
Retail Salesi (m/m)	+0.5 %	−1.4 pp	14 May 2026	17 Jun 2026	Retail sales at +0.5% m/m indicate steady consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi	54.0	+1.3	May 2026	—	ISM manufacturing at 54.0 confirms expansion in the factory sector.
ISM Services PMIi	54.5	+0.9	May 2026	—	ISM services at 54.5 signals ongoing expansion in the services sector.

Yield Curve	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi	39 bp	—	daily	tomorrow	Positive curve. Recession odds receding.

Sentiment	Latest	Δ vs Prior	Released	Next Release	Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity)	41 (Fear)	unchanged	daily	tomorrow	CNN Fear & Greed at 41 indicates Fear regime in equity markets.
Crypto Fear & Greedi	23 (Extreme Fear)	+3	daily	tomorrow	Crypto Fear & Greed at 23 signals Extreme Fear, a potential opportunity.
News Sentimenti	+27 (Greed)	−11	every 30 min	—	News sentiment at +27 shows Greed narrative diverging from market Fear readings.

03News Sentiment

Greed

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −42 to +46 · current +27 (Greed) · −11 24h

7 days ago today

Direction

bull 76% bear 24% ± 12% uncertainty

Coverage

macro 88% crypto 0% mixed 12%

What's driving today's news sentiment Top 4 · sorted by impact

+47 Bullish short-term

US-Iran Peace Deal Spurs Broad Equity Gains and Risk-On Sentiment

Markets rallied as US-Iran peace deal catalyzed gains: S&P 500 +1.65%, Dow +0.92%, Nasdaq +3.06%, signaling heightened risk appetite and positive equity momentum supportive of crypto.

nasdaq.comconf 85% Market-WideAlt-L1s

+10 Neutral Kingboard Laminates surges 550% on AI-driven rally highlighting tech sector strength bloomberg.com

+10 Neutral US-Iran Peace Deal Spurs USD Weakness and Crude Oil Decline, Supporting Mild Bullish Crypto Sentiment nasdaq.com

0 Neutral Celsius Stock Expansion Unrelated to Crypto Markets nasdaq.com

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bullish

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

The entire nine-name tech cohort is green today, with Advanced Micro Devices leading at +6.98% and NVIDIA close behind at +3.54%, pointing to a broad semiconductor bid. Meta Platforms is the standout among the internet names at +4.67%, while Apple and Tesla lag the group with gains under 2%. Strength is wide but not uniform, with semis clearly outpacing the rest.

AAPLApple

$296.42+1.82%

1D Range $291.70 — $297.78

1M Range $290.55 — $315.20

P/E TTMi35.6 P/E Fwdi30.8 50-DMAi+3.5% 200-DMAi+10.9% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+9.4% % from ATHi−6.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.50

MSFTMicrosoft

$399.76+2.31%

1D Range $392.85 — $401.75

1M Range $390.34 — $460.52

P/E TTMi23.7 P/E Fwdi20.6 50-DMAi−3.0% 200-DMAi−11.8% RSI(14)i43 YTDi−15.5% % from ATHi−28.0% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.31

GOOGLAlphabet

$369.35+2.69%

1D Range $367.59 — $372.99

1M Range $356.38 — $396.94

P/E TTMi27.9 P/E Fwdi25.9 50-DMAi+1.5% 200-DMAi+19.6% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+17.2% % from ATHi−9.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.82

AMZNAmazon

$246.02+3.13%

1D Range $244.73 — $247.81

1M Range $238.00 — $274.00

P/E TTMi29.1 P/E Fwdi28.0 50-DMAi−3.7% 200-DMAi+5.8% RSI(14)i43 YTDi+8.6% % from ATHi−11.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.66

NVDANVIDIA

$212.45+3.54%

1D Range $208.34 — $212.71

1M Range $200.42 — $225.32

P/E TTMi32.3 P/E Fwdi23.8 50-DMAi+2.3% 200-DMAi+12.2% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+12.5% % from ATHi−10.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.61

METAMeta Platforms

$593.48+4.67%

1D Range $579.30 — $601.27

1M Range $566.98 — $635.29

P/E TTMi21.3 P/E Fwdi18.0 50-DMAi−4.6% 200-DMAi−9.7% RSI(14)i46 YTDi−8.8% % from ATHi−25.5% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.02

TSLATesla

$411.15+1.16%

1D Range $407.10 — $416.00

1M Range $381.59 — $442.10

P/E TTMi343.0 P/E Fwdi218.0 50-DMAi+3.0% 200-DMAi−1.2% RSI(14)i51 YTDi−6.1% % from ATHi−17.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.74

INTCIntel

$127.86+2.64%

1D Range $126.68 — $132.61

1M Range $99.17 — $127.86

P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi118.0 50-DMAi+31.5% 200-DMAi+136.7% RSI(14)i64 YTDi+224.7% % from ATHi−3.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.59

AMDAMD

$547.26+6.98%

1D Range $530.50 — $558.37

1M Range $414.05 — $547.26

P/E TTMi178.2 P/E Fwdi73.3 50-DMAi+39.1% 200-DMAi+113.9% RSI(14)i65 YTDi+144.9% % from ATHi−2.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.61

04.2Indices

Bullishi

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

US equities are broadly higher, with the Nasdaq up 3.07% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) surging 5.40%, reflecting the day's dominant semiconductor theme. The S&P 500 is up 1.65% while the Dow and Russell 2000 trail at +0.92% and +0.72% respectively, a gap that signals large-cap tech is doing the heavy lifting. Notably, the cap-weighted S&P 500 YTD return of +10.15% and the equal-weight RSP YTD of +10.38% are nearly identical, a gap of just -0.24 percentage points, meaning breadth is genuinely broad and today's rally is not a narrow Mag7 story. VIX is down 8.37% to 16.2, consistent with a risk-on session. Overseas, Emerging Markets (EEM) gained 2.75% while the Hang Seng fell 1.36%, leaving the international picture mixed.

US Equity Benchmarks

SPXS&P 500

7,554.29+1.65%

1D Range 7,516.75 — 7,577.92

1M Range 7,267.00 — 7,609.77

50-DMAi+4.0% 200-DMAi+9.7% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+10.1% % from ATHi−0.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.97

IXICNasdaq Comp.

26,683.94+3.07%

1D Range 26,438.77 — 26,687.56

1M Range 25,169.50 — 27,093.90

50-DMAi+5.4% 200-DMAi+13.8% RSI(14)i59 YTDi+14.8% % from ATHi−1.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.00

DJIDow Jones Ind.

51,671.03+0.92%

1D Range 51,364.55 — 51,945.89

1M Range 49,363.89 — 51,671.03

50-DMAi+4.0% 200-DMAi+7.5% RSI(14)i62 YTDi+6.8% % from ATHi−0.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.52

RUTRussell 2000

2,965.09+0.72%

1D Range 2,960.68 — 2,996.42

1M Range 2,747.07 — 2,965.09

50-DMAi+5.6% 200-DMAi+14.5% RSI(14)i61 YTDi+18.2% % from ATHi−0.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.74

SOXXSemiconductors

628.45+5.40%

1D Range 618.45 — 629.72

1M Range 495.87 — 628.45

50-DMAi+27.5% 200-DMAi+77.2% RSI(14)i66 YTDi+100.3% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+2.96

Risk & Breadth Gauges

RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt

212.88+0.58%

1D Range 212.62 — 214.29

1M Range 201.56 — 212.88

50-DMAi+4.4% 200-DMAi+8.7% RSI(14)i66 YTDi+10.4% vs SPX YTDi+0.2pp Cap-weight sharei-2%

VIXiVolatility Idx

16.20−8.37%

1D Range 16.20 — 16.78

1M Range 15.32 — 22.22

50-DMAi−11.2% 200-DMAi−12.6% RSI(14)i45 YTDi+11.6%

MOVEiMOVE Index

69.36−0.13%

5D Range 69.36 — 77.03

1M Range 69.36 — 86.07

50-DMAi−5.7% 200-DMAi−5.3% RSI(14)i43 YTDi+11.2%

DXYTrade-Wt. USD

112.56−0.43%

5D Range 112.56 — 113.04

1M Range 111.19 — 113.04

50-DMAi+1.0% 200-DMAi+1.0% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+1.2%

World Markets

FTSEFTSE 100

10,430.62−0.39%

1D Range 10,419.22 — 10,570.09

1M Range 10,195.37 — 10,505.01

50-DMAi+0.3% 200-DMAi+4.4% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+4.8% % from ATHi−4.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.69

N225Nikkei 225

69,737.64+0.61%

1D Range 69,095.67 — 70,020.68

1M Range 59,804.41 — 69,747.88

50-DMAi+13.9% 200-DMAi+31.5% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+34.6% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+2.46

HSIHang Seng

24,504.00−1.36%

1D Range 24,472.00 — 24,829.50

1M Range 24,249.30 — 26,038.33

50-DMAi−4.6% 200-DMAi−5.8% RSI(14)i40 YTDi−6.8% % from ATHi−12.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.30

Global Equity Baskets

URTHMSCI World

203.63+0.65%

1D Range 203.47 — 204.45

1M Range 197.44 — 206.18

50-DMAi+2.9% 200-DMAi+8.4% RSI(14)i57 YTDi+9.2% % from ATHi−1.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.82

EEMMSCI Emerging

69.75+2.75%

1D Range 69.38 — 69.88

1M Range 64.26 — 70.80

50-DMAi+7.3% 200-DMAi+20.0% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+24.0% % from ATHi−1.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.93

Valuations

CAPE 10iShiller P/E

42.2Overvalued

+1.81% today

Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−4.5%

Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)

32.6Overvalued

+1.81% today

Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)

Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP

218.5Overvalued

Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.5%

Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst

Industrials+6.85%

Energy+1.19%

Telecom+1.09%

Utilities+1.03%

Tech+0.94%

Staples+0.68%

Real Estate+0.51%

Discretionary+0.15%

Healthcare+0.11%

Materials−0.06%

Financials−1.36%

04.3US Treasuries & Credit

Offered

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Nominal Treasury yields are drifting modestly higher across the curve, with the 2-year up 4 basis points to 4.09% and the 10-year up 3 basis points to 4.48%, leaving the 2s10s spread at +39 basis points - a curve that continues to steepen gradually. Real rates are essentially unchanged, with the 10-year TIPS yield at 2.17% and the 10-year breakeven at 2.32%, both up just 1 basis point, so the nominal move is split evenly between real and inflation components rather than driven by either alone. Credit is the cleaner risk-on signal: high-yield OAS tightened 7 basis points to 271 basis points while investment-grade OAS edged 1 basis point tighter to 74 basis points, reflecting genuine appetite for spread product even as duration cheapens.

US2YiTreasury 2Y

4.09%+4 bp

5D Range 4.05 — 4.15

1M Range 3.98 — 4.17

5-day Δ−8 bp YTD Δ+62 bp

US10YiTreasury 10Y

4.48%+3 bp

5D Range 4.45 — 4.56

1M Range 4.45 — 4.67

10–2 spread+39 bp YTD Δ+29 bp

US30YiTreasury 30Y

4.97%+2 bp

5D Range 4.95 — 5.03

1M Range 4.95 — 5.18

5-day Δ−4 bp YTD Δ+11 bp

Fiscal

US Debt & Servicing

Total Public Debti

$39.21T -$10.8B (1d)

+8.3% YoY

Annual Interest (gross)i

$1.31T +10.2% YoY

gross · avg rate 3.35%

Rate & Rollover Risk

Wtd Avg Rate on Debti

3.35% +0.06pp YoY

on total interest-bearing debt

Maturing < 1 Yeari

26.0%

~$10.21T · refinancing-risk gauge

Macro Bond

Real Rates & Credit

Real Rates & Inflation Expectations

10Y TIPS Reali

2.17% +1 bp

10Y nominal − inflation expectations

10Y Breakeveni

2.32% +1 bp

market-implied 10Y CPI

Credit Spreads

HY OASi

2.71% −7 bp

ICE BofA US HY

IG OASi

0.74% −1 bp

tight · late-cycle

04.4Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Bid

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

No JGB curve data is available for today's session. The Japan Rates section will update when feed data is restored.

JP2YiJGB 2Y

1.41%−1 bp

5D Range 1.41 — 1.43

1M Range 1.37 — 1.46

5-day Δ−1 bp YTD Δ+22 bp

JP10YiJGB 10Y

2.59%−5 bp

5D Range 2.59 — 2.68

1M Range 2.58 — 2.78

10–2 spread+118 bp YTD Δ+48 bp

JP30YiJGB 30Y

3.73%−4 bp

5D Range 3.73 — 3.82

1M Range 3.73 — 4.04

5-day Δ−15 bp YTD Δ+33 bp

04.5Commodities

Mixed

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy prices are modestly firmer, with WTI crude and Brent both posting fractional gains and natural gas up 1.64%, though absolute price levels were not available in today's feed. Precious metals are slightly softer, with Gold down 0.21% to $4,342.60 and Silver off 0.58% to $69.775, a mild pullback that sits within the context of a broader risk-on session.

CLWTI Crude

$95.00+0.72%

5D Range $94.32 — $99.76

1M Range $91.16 — $112.25

50-DMAi−5.7% 200-DMAi+28.5% RSI(14)i45 YTDi+66.1%

COBrent

$97.46+0.17%

5D Range $97.29 — $101.69

1M Range $92.88 — $116.73

50-DMAi−12.5% 200-DMAi+21.5% RSI(14)i42 YTDi+57.2%

NGNatural Gas

$3.10+1.64%

5D Range $2.97 — $3.10

1M Range $2.75 — $3.34

50-DMAi+7.7% 200-DMAi−16.1% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+9.9%

XAUGold

$4,342.60−0.21%

5D Range $4,326.70 — $4,353.90

1M Range $4,114.00 — $4,593.00

50-DMAi−4.9% 200-DMAi−5.3% RSI(14)i45 YTDi−1.0%

XAGSilver

$69.78−0.58%

5D Range $69.10 — $70.19

1M Range $64.00 — $77.96

50-DMAi−7.9% 200-DMAi−4.5% RSI(14)i44 YTDi−4.1%

04.6Crypto Assets

Mixed

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Crypto is posting a subdued session relative to the equity rally, with Bitcoin up just 0.26% to $65,833.83 and the total crypto market cap up 0.57% over 24 hours. Ethereum is the relative outperformer at +2.33% to $1,760.70, while Solana is the lone decliner at -0.78% to $73.35. BTC dominance holds at 56.5%, reflecting continued rotation preference toward the largest asset. Perp funding rates are negative for both BTC (-2.94% APR) and ETH (-2.13% APR), indicating that short positioning in derivatives is elevated. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 23 (Extreme Fear), a sentiment backdrop that stands in sharp contrast to the day's equity exuberance.

BTCBitcoin

$65,833.83+0.26%

1D Range $65,495.00 — $67,217.00

1M Range $60,850.48 — $77,547.62

50-DMAi−10.9% 200-DMAi−15.2% 200-WMAi($62,254.26) +5.7% RSI(14)i42 % from ATHi−47.8% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.32

ETHEthereum

$1,760.70+2.33%

1D Range $1,713.53 — $1,846.10

1M Range $1,568.87 — $2,131.96

50-DMAi−14.9% 200-DMAi−26.9% 200-WMAi($2,471.00) −28.7% RSI(14)i43 % from ATHi−63.9% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.44

SOLSolana

$73.35−0.78%

1D Range $72.74 — $74.35

1M Range $62.15 — $87.27

50-DMAi−10.0% 200-DMAi−26.4% 200-WMAi($106.68) −31.2% RSI(14)i49 % from ATHi−75.0% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.69

ENAEthena

$0.0850−0.74%

1D Range $0.0840 — $0.0864

1M Range $0.0721 — $0.1119

50-DMAi−15.0% 200-DMAi−39.3% RSI(14)i45 % from ATHi−94.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−2.25

HYPEHyperliquid

$70.43+5.30%

1D Range $66.36 — $70.48

1M Range $47.73 — $74.47

50-DMAi+33.9% 200-DMAi+90.1% RSI(14)i62 % from ATHi−4.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.80

PUMPPump.fun

$0.001537−3.06%

1D Range $0.001525 — $0.001640

1M Range $0.001372 — $0.001832

50-DMAi−9.6% 200-DMAi−26.8% RSI(14)i45 % from ATHi−82.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.39

Crypto Market

Macro Indicators

Market Caps & Dominance

BTC Mcapi

$1.31T +0.26%

56.5% of total

ETH Mcap

$212.5B +2.33%

9.1% of total

Stablecoin Mcap

$314.8B +0.13%

circulating supply

Total Crypto Mcap

$2.34T +0.57%

global market cap

Trading Volumes (24h)

CEX Volume (spot)

$139.1B +14.83%

24h · CoinGecko aggregate

DEX Volume (spot)

$9.3B +37.61%

24h · DefiLlama all chains

CEX Volume (perp)

$263.2B −4.27%

24h · derivatives exchanges

Hyperliquid (perp)

$5.3B −12.53%

24h · 230+ markets

DeFi Activity

Global DeFi TVL

$73.9B +0.76%

all chains

Lending TVL

$37.4B +1.18%

money markets

DEX TVL

$11.6B +0.60%

liquidity pools

ETH Staking APR

2.34%

Lido stETH base rate

Leverage & Sentiment

BTC Fundingi

−2.94% APR shorts pay

8h · Binance perp

ETH Fundingi

−2.13% APR shorts pay

8h · Binance perp

BTC L/S Ratioi

1.22 large traders long

1.22× longs vs shorts

Crypto F&Gi

23 Extreme Fear

Δ +3 vs yesterday · 0-100

IPOR Rates

USDCi

3.49% −0.16 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.62%

USDTi

2.89% −0.76 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 2.90%

DAIi

3.75% +0.10 pp vs SOFR

24h avg 3.77%

WETHi

1.85% +0.01 pp vs avg

24h avg 1.84%

04.7Pre-IPO & Onchain Equity Perpsi

Neutrali

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

All three pre-IPO perps (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) are printing at zero premium to their oracle anchors, leaving the average premium at 0.00% and the section signal neutral.

SPACEXi SpaceX

$2.52T +19.25% 24h

0.00% vs oraclei

Oraclei$2.52T Last roundi$137B · Jan 2023 Financialsi$18.7B · FY25 P/S (oracle)i134.5× OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$0

Cross-venuei xyz:SPCX · $212.51/share · +25.32% · vol $1.1B

ANTHROPICi Anthropic

$1.62T +0.52% 24h

0.00% vs oraclei

Oraclei$1.62T Last roundi$965B · May 2026 Financialsi$19.2B · Q1 26 P/S (oracle)i37.1× fwd · 84.3× TTM OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$107k

OPENAIi OpenAI

$1.34T -1.97% 24h

0.00% vs oraclei

Oraclei$1.34T Last roundi$852B · Mar 2026 Financialsi$24B · Mar 26 P/S (oracle)i55.9× OIi0 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$113k

CRCLi Circle Internet

$83.45 +1.98% 24h

OIi493,224 Fundingi+5.5%/yr Vol 24h$33.8M

COINi Coinbase

$168.25 +0.60% 24h

OIi34,130 Fundingi-19.1%/yr Vol 24h$6.2M

MSTRi MicroStrategy

$129.74 -0.95% 24h

OIi174,136 Fundingi+5.5%/yr Vol 24h$12.7M

Sector-thematic equity baskets

MAG7i Magnificent 7

66.62 +0.94% 24h

OIi9,973 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$330k

SEMISi Semiconductors

647.54 +0.98% 24h

OIi671 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$301k

DEFENSEi Defense

63.27 -2.14% 24h

OIi594 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$2k

ROBOTi Robotics

38.23 +1.12% 24h

OIi1,721 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$8k

NUCLEARi Nuclear

126.12 +1.16% 24h

OIi183 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$16k

04.8Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Accumulating

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Corporate and institutional treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,279,127 BTC (6.09% of supply), 7,632,207 ETH (6.32% of supply), and 18,457,162 SOL (3.18% of supply) held across tracked entities. Spot ETF flows tell a cautious story: BTC saw $65M in outflows on the day and $293M over the past seven days, while ETH attracted $22M today but is still $75M in the red over the week. SOL ETF flows are negligible in both windows.

Asset	Total Held	USD Value	% of Supply	Top Public Holders
₿ Bitcoin BTC	1.28 M BTC	$84.2 B	6.09%	Strategy 847k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 40k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ Ethereum ETH	7.63 M ETH	$13.4 B	6.32%	BitMine Immersion 5.62M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 151k
◎ Solana SOL	18.46 M SOL	$1.4 B	3.18%	Forward Industries 7.01M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M

Spot ETF Flows

Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP

BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB…

AUM

$85.4 B

24h Flow−$65 M

7-day Flow−$293 M

YTD Flowi−$2.99 B

ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH…

AUM

$10.0 B

24h Flow+$22 M

7-day Flow−$75 M

YTD Flowi−$1.11 B

SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL…

AUM

$709.2 M

24h Flow+$3 M

7-day Flow−$1 M

YTD Flowi−$39 M

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Asset	Last	Trendi	Supporti	Resistancei	RSIi	RSI Status	Signal
SPX S&P 500	7,554.29	Bullish	7,267.22	7,577.92	60	Neutral	Buyconf 75%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp.	26,683.94	Bullish	25,306.98	26,687.56	59	Neutral	Buyconf 75%
DXY Dollar Index	112.56	USD ↑	111.47	113.04	60	Neutral	Sellconf 60%
VIX Volatility	16.20	Suppressed	16.20	18.25	45	Neutral	Hedgeconf 70%
US10Y US 10Y Yield	4.48%	Yields ↑	4.42%	4.56%	50	Neutral	Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude	$95.00	Sideways	$73.92	$100.75	45	Neutral	Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold	$4,343	Bearish	$4,327	$4,567	45	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin	$65,834	Bearish	$65,495	$73,923	42	Neutral	Sellconf 75%
ETH Ethereum	$1,761	Bearish	$1,714	$2,069	43	Neutral	Sellconf 75%

06Key Events

Next 7 days

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

The week's calendar is dominated by Wednesday's FOMC decision, with the Fed Interest Rate Decision and Economic Projections due at 18:00 ET followed by Chair Powell's press conference at 18:30 ET. Retail Sales for May prints at 12:30 ET on the same day, meaning Wednesday carries both the key growth read and the policy response in a single session. No mega-cap earnings are scheduled in the next seven days, so macro catalysts own the tape.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Today
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Housing Starts (May)Est: 1.43 M · prev 1.47 M High
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales MoM (May)Est: 0.50 % · prev 0.50 % High
Tomorrow
18:00 UTC · 20:00 CEST FOMC Economic Projections High
Today
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Housing Starts MoM (May)Est: -2 % · prev -2.80 % Medium
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (May)Est: 0.50 % · prev 0.70 % Medium
Thu
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/13)Est: 225 K · prev 229 K Medium
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (May)Est: 0.50 % · prev 0.50 % Low
Tomorrow
12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST Retail Sales YoY (May)Est: 4 % · prev 4.90 % Low

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

No mega-cap earnings on the watchlist this week.

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Mid-cyclei

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Daily reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018).

Today's read

The economy stays vibrant with PMIs above 54 and positive payrolls, and Capital Markets plus Yield Spreads remain warm on stretched valuations (CAPE 41.54, HY OAS 278bp). Interest Rates, Terms, and Investors are clearly cold, anchored by a 2.21% real yield and equity Fear-and-Greed at 27.8.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 19 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Refreshed 16 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC · 07:01 CEST Sources ⓘ

Add selectively: crypto fear extreme, but equities need a cooler entry

The US-Iran peace deal drove the S&P 500 to 7,554 with a 1.65% session gain, but the day's real story is dispersion: Industrials surged +6.85% while Financial Services shed -1.36%, an 8.2-point spread that reads as event-driven rotation rather than broad conviction. Advanced Micro Devices +6.98% and Meta +4.67% led mega-cap tech, yet the equal-weight index gained only 0.58%, confirming narrow breadth. The cycle sits mid-range, but equity valuations remain stretched well above long-run means. The contrarian case lives in crypto: Bitcoin at 65,834 sits 5.7% above its 200-week moving average, funding rates are fractionally negative, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index registers 23 (Extreme Fear) - a setup that historically precedes asymmetric recoveries. Bitcoin ETF outflows of $64.8M in 24 hours and $292.7M over seven days add near-term caution. Tomorrow's FOMC decision and dot-plot are the immediate binary; hold equities, add crypto small on continued weakness.

24h Bias

Cautiously constructive; FOMC binary tomorrow

Equities

Hold; wait for post-FOMC clarity

Bonds

Add small at 30Y 4.97%; real yield attractive

Commodities

Hold WTI; trim gold on peace-deal fade risk

Crypto

Add small BTC; Extreme Fear at 23 is contrarian

Vol hedge

Hold VIX puts; FOMC warrants tail cover

Geopolitical Relief Rally Meets Crypto Fear

01Daily Summary

02Macro Snapshot

03News Sentiment

04.1Tech Equitiesi

04.2Indices

04.3US Treasuries & Credit

04.4Japan Rates · JGB Curve

04.5Commodities

04.6Crypto Assets

04.7Pre-IPO & Onchain Equity Perpsi

Sector-thematic equity baskets

04.8Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

05Technical Dashboard

06Key Events

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

08Daily Alpha

Add selectively: crypto fear extreme, but equities need a cooler entry