Equities Surge, But Fear and Dollar Diverge

• Driver:Middle East peace optimism triggered a broad equity rally; Intel surged 9.3% and Advanced Micro Devices 8.0% on semiconductor relief.
• Cross-asset:Equities and gold rose together; the dollar also strengthened 0.62%, while Bitcoin gained modestly but ETF flows stayed deeply negative.
• Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 5.03%; 2s10s curve 42 basis points positive; TIPS real yield 2.21%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) 280 basis points, up 2; IPOR DAI rate 6.09%.
• Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 12 (Extreme Fear); equity Fear and Greed 29.7 (Fear); Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.23; funding rates near zero; news sentiment reads Bullish Bias.
• Forward bias:US Michigan Consumer Sentiment and UK GDP due today; a softer sentiment print or renewed geopolitical flare-up would flip the equity rally quickly.

The semiconductor complex is leading today, with Intel surging 9.27% and Advanced Micro Devices up nearly 8%, pulling the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) to an 8.39% gain. Nvidia adds 2.22% and Tesla jumps 4.60%, while Microsoft is the notable laggard at -1.77% and Meta Platforms slips modestly. Seven of nine names in the cohort are in the green, making this a broadly constructive session with semis as the clear engine.

US equities are posting a strong broad-based rally: the Russell 2000 leads at +3.02%, the Nasdaq gains 2.54%, the S&P 500 rises 1.75%, and the Dow adds 1.86%, with SOXX's 8.39% surge amplifying the tech-heavy read. Breadth is notably healthy today - the equal-weight RSP is actually outpacing the cap-weighted S&P 500 on a YTD basis by 0.94 percentage points (+8.76% vs +7.81%), meaning the average S&P 500 name has been keeping pace with or ahead of the Mag7 concentration, a constructive breadth signal. VIX drops 12.51% to 19.44 and MOVE falls 6.09% to 69.45, reflecting a broad de-risking of fear across both equity and rates vol. World markets are participating: the Nikkei gains 3.65%, Emerging Markets (EEM) rise 4.39%, and the MSCI World ETF (URTH) adds 2.08%.

The Treasury curve is marginally steeper on the day: the 2-year holds flat at 4.13% while the 10-year and 30-year each add 2 basis points to 4.55% and 5.03% respectively, pushing the 2s10s spread to +42 bp. Real rates are essentially unchanged with the 10-year TIPS yield at 2.21%, but the 10-year breakeven drops 5 bp to 2.29%, meaning the modest nominal move is being driven by a slight easing of inflation expectations rather than rising real yields. Credit spreads are little changed: HY OAS widens just 2 bp to 280 bp and IG OAS holds at 75 bp, consistent with a risk-on equity session that has not yet translated into meaningful credit tightening.

No JGB curve data is available for today's session. The Japan Rates section will update when feed data is restored.

Gold (XAU) is the standout, gaining 2.41% to $4,213.20 with Silver (XAG) up 4.78% to $67.06, a sharp move in precious metals that sits alongside the day's broader risk-on tone rather than against it. Energy prices are modestly firmer across WTI crude, Brent, and natural gas (each up less than 2%), though absolute price levels are unavailable from today's feed.

Bitcoin trades at $63,603.24, up 2.06% on the day, while Ethereum adds 1.84% to $1,674.66 and Solana lags at +0.45% to $66.96, with total crypto market cap up 1.38% and DeFi global TVL rising 2.60%. BTC dominance holds elevated at 56.4%, signaling that capital rotation into altcoins remains limited despite the positive price action. Spot ETF flows are a headwind: BTC ETFs saw $22M in outflows on the latest day and $731M over the trailing seven days, while ETH and SOL ETFs each posted modest single-day outflows. Perp funding is divergent - BTC funding is positive at +4.12% APR (longs paying) while ETH funding is negative at -5.16% APR (shorts paying), a split signal on directional conviction. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 12 (Extreme Fear), a stark contrast to the day's positive price moves and one that warrants attention.

Pre-IPO perp marks on Hyperliquid are trading above their Notice-anchored oracle valuations by an average of +13.68%, with Anthropic the top contributor at +15.35% above oracle, followed by OpenAI at +12.96% and SpaceX at +12.73%.

Sector-thematic equity baskets

Corporate and institutional treasury holdings are substantial across the three major assets: 1,277,540 BTC (6.08% of supply, ~$81.3B), 7,555,330 ETH (6.26% of supply, ~$12.7B), and 18,457,162 SOL (3.18% of supply, ~$1.2B). Spot ETF flows are negative across the board on the latest day - BTC at -$22M, ETH at -$16M, and SOL at -$4M - and the seven-day BTC ETF flow of -$731M points to sustained institutional redemption pressure even as spot prices recover.

The week's calendar is dominated by the Federal Reserve: the FOMC interest rate decision, updated economic projections, and Fed Chair press conference are all scheduled for June 17, making that the single highest-stakes macro event on deck. Housing Starts for May (June 16) is the key data print to watch ahead of the Fed. No mega-cap earnings are on the schedule this week, so macro and Fed communication will drive the tape.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

No mega-cap earnings on the watchlist this week.