Daily Market Report

Oil Surge and Stretched Valuations Cloud Equity Gains

Live Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST

01Daily Summary

Mixed Signals
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

The S&P 500 edged up 0.37% to 7,473, but the rally sits on shaky ground. WTI crude surged nearly 3% to $112.25, headline CPI remains elevated at 3.81%, and PPI at 5.99% signals upstream price pressure. Real yields jumped 5 bp to 2.18%, tightening financial conditions further. Crypto sentiment reads Fear at 34, with BTC ETF outflows of $105 million on the day and $1.26 billion over seven days. CAPE 10 at 42.04 (well above its 17.38 long-run mean) reinforces a late-cycle, overvalued posture that limits conviction in the equity bid.

S&P 500+0.37%NASDAQ+0.19%US10Y0 bpWTI+2.99%Gold+0.18%BTC−0.20%ETH+0.21%DXY+0.47%VIX−0.66%

02Macro Snapshot

Mixed signals
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ
Benchmark Rates Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Fed Ratei 3.50 – 3.75 % unchanged 29 Apr 2026 17 Jun 2026 Fed funds at 3.50-3.75% signals steady policy for risk assets.
ECB Ratei 2.00 % unchanged 16 Apr 2026 4 Jun 2026 ECB rate at 2.00% supports European risk assets and EUR stability.
BoJ Ratei 0.75 % unchanged 28 Apr 2026 16 Jun 2026 BoJ rate at 0.75% keeps JPY carry trade attractive for global risk.
SOFRi 3.51 % +1 bp daily tomorrow SOFR at 3.51% with +1 bp rise tightens short-end USD funding slightly.
IPOR USDCi 4.31 % +80 bp real-time — USDC IPOR at 4.31% exceeds SOFR by 0.80 pp indicating strong onchain demand.
IPOR WETHi 1.82 % +0 bp real-time — WETH IPOR at 1.82% shows moderate cost of borrowing wrapped ETH onchain.
ETH Ratei 2.36 % — real-time — ETH staking yield at 2.36% provides native return for holding staked ETH.
Inflation Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CPI YoY (headline)i 3.8 % +0.6 pp 12 May 2026 10 Jun 2026 Headline CPI at 3.8% keeps Fed cautious on further rate cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i 2.8 % +0.1 pp 12 May 2026 10 Jun 2026 Core CPI at 2.8% indicates persistent but moderating underlying inflation.
PPI YoY (headline)i 6.0 % +1.7 pp 13 May 2026 11 Jun 2026 PPI at 6.0% shows upstream inflation running hotter than CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i 5.2 % +1.3 pp 13 May 2026 11 Jun 2026 Core PPI at 5.2% signals strong persistent upstream price pressures.
Labor Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) 158.74 M jobs +115 k 8 May 2026 5 Jun 2026 NFP at +115k points to cooling labor market momentum.
Unemployment Ratei 4.3 % unchanged pp 8 May 2026 5 Jun 2026 Unemployment at 4.3% adds labor market slack for Fed consideration.
Activity Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY) +1.4 % +0.6 pp 15 May 2026 15 Jun 2026 Industrial production at +1.4% YoY indicates modest manufacturing growth.
Retail Salesi (m/m) +0.5 % −1.4 pp 14 May 2026 17 Jun 2026 Retail sales at +0.5% m/m reflect steady consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi 52.7 +0.3 April 2026 — ISM manufacturing at 52.7 confirms expansion in the factory sector.
ISM Services PMIi 53.6 -0.4 April 2026 — ISM services at 53.6 shows continued expansion in services.
Yield Curve Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi 49 bp — daily tomorrow Positive curve. Recession odds receding.
Sentiment Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) 59 (Greed) unchanged daily tomorrow CNN Fear & Greed at 59 signals Greed in equity markets.
Crypto Fear & Greedi 34 (Fear) +4 daily tomorrow Crypto Fear & Greed at 34 indicates Fear in crypto markets.
News Sentimenti −9 (Fear) −31 every 30 min — News sentiment at -9 reflects Fear in current news narrative.

03News Sentiment

Fear
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −38 to +37 · current −9 (Fear) · −31 24h
7 days ago today
Direction
bull 28% bear 72% ± 16% uncertainty
Coverage
macro 45% crypto 45% mixed 10%
What's driving today's news sentiment Top 3 · sorted by impact
−35 Bearish medium-term
ECB Executive Board Signals June Rate Hike Despite Middle East Conflict
ECB board member Schnabel emphasizes June interest rate increase even if Middle East conflict resolves swiftly, indicating continued hawkish monetary stance likely to tighten financial conditions.
bloomberg.comconf 85% Market-WideBTCETHStablecoins
−33 Bearish ECB Executive Board hawkishly supports June rate hike despite Middle East conflict bloomberg.com
−30 Bearish Solana Faces Short-Term Bearish Pressure After Recent Gains Erode newsbtc.com

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Mixed
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

The mega-cap cohort split 5-of-9 green but the gains were uneven. AMD led with a nearly 4% surge and TSLA added close to 2%, while NVDA dropped 1.9% and GOOGL fell 1.2%. The session favored the value and cyclical end of the stack over the AI-capex darlings.

AAPLApple
$308.82+1.26%
Day Range $305.85 — $311.40
P/E TTMi37.1 P/E Fwdi32.1 50-DMAi+14.1% 200-DMAi+18.1% RSI(14)i78 YTDi+14.0% % from ATHi−0.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.96
MSFTMicrosoft
$418.57−0.12%
Day Range $416.34 — $424.40
P/E TTMi24.8 P/E Fwdi21.5 50-DMAi+4.5% 200-DMAi−9.1% RSI(14)i54 YTDi−11.5% % from ATHi−24.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.70
GOOGLAlphabet
$382.97−1.21%
Day Range $382.78 — $388.74
P/E TTMi28.9 P/E Fwdi27.0 50-DMAi+12.3% 200-DMAi+29.3% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+21.5% % from ATHi−6.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+3.10
AMZNAmazon
$266.32−0.80%
Day Range $266.24 — $269.79
P/E TTMi31.5 P/E Fwdi30.4 50-DMAi+10.1% 200-DMAi+15.5% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+17.6% % from ATHi−4.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.55
NVDANVIDIA
$215.33−1.90%
Day Range $214.86 — $221.01
P/E TTMi32.8 P/E Fwdi24.4 50-DMAi+9.4% 200-DMAi+15.1% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+14.0% % from ATHi−9.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.30
METAMeta Platforms
$610.26+0.47%
Day Range $606.96 — $614.81
P/E TTMi21.9 P/E Fwdi18.6 50-DMAi−1.2% 200-DMAi−8.8% RSI(14)i45 YTDi−6.2% % from ATHi−23.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.77
TSLATesla
$426.01+1.95%
Day Range $422.67 — $431.51
P/E TTMi355.4 P/E Fwdi223.8 50-DMAi+9.7% 200-DMAi+3.9% RSI(14)i58 YTDi−2.8% % from ATHi−14.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.45
INTCIntel
$119.84+1.13%
Day Range $118.09 — $122.78
P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi111.3 50-DMAi+56.8% 200-DMAi+154.1% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+204.3% % from ATHi−9.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.78
AMDAMD
$467.51+3.99%
Day Range $461.71 — $481.37
P/E TTMi152.2 P/E Fwdi62.8 50-DMAi+54.2% 200-DMAi+102.5% RSI(14)i73 YTDi+109.2% % from ATHi−2.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.80

04.2Indices

Bullishi
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

U.S. equities posted broad gains with a small-cap tilt: the Russell 2000 rose 0.91% and SOXX surged 2.41%, outpacing the S&P 500's 0.37% advance and the Nasdaq's more modest 0.19%. The Dow led large-cap benchmarks at +0.58%. The SPX-vs-RSP YTD gap sits at just 1.85 pp (8.97% vs 7.11%), a relatively narrow spread that suggests the rally is not overly concentrated in Mag7 names for now. VIX drifted lower to 16.59, consistent with the risk-on tone. Overseas, action was muted: the Nikkei slipped 0.42% while the FTSE and Hang Seng were roughly flat.

US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,473.47+0.37%
Day Range 7,463.29 — 7,506.32
50-DMAi+6.9% 200-DMAi+9.8% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+9.0% % from ATHi−0.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.75
IXICNasdaq Comp.
26,343.97+0.19%
Day Range 26,309.80 — 26,504.55
50-DMAi+10.1% 200-DMAi+14.1% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+13.4% % from ATHi−1.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.81
DJIDow Jones Ind.
50,579.70+0.58%
Day Range 50,434.65 — 50,830.24
50-DMAi+4.8% 200-DMAi+6.2% RSI(14)i65 YTDi+4.5% % from ATHi−0.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.11
RUTRussell 2000
2,869.22+0.91%
Day Range 2,855.12 — 2,878.61
50-DMAi+14.6% 200-DMAi+16.5% RSI(14)i61 YTDi+14.4% % from ATHi−0.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.19
SOXXSemiconductors
537.33+2.41%
Day Range 531.81 — 541.89
50-DMAi+28.2% 200-DMAi+62.9% RSI(14)i69 YTDi+71.3% % from ATHi−0.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+3.41
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
206.58+0.91%
Day Range 205.52 — 206.97
50-DMAi+3.9% 200-DMAi+6.5% RSI(14)i64 YTDi+7.1% vs SPX YTDi−1.9pp Cap-weight sharei+21%
VIXiVolatility Idx
16.59−0.66%
Day Range 16.53 — 16.87
50-DMAi−20.2% 200-DMAi−9.6% RSI(14)i41 YTDi+15.1%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
111.71+0.47%
5-day Range 110.34 — 111.71
50-DMAi+0.2% 200-DMAi+0.3% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+0.5%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,466.26+0.22%
Day Range 10,435.53 — 10,497.22
50-DMAi+1.3% 200-DMAi+5.6% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+5.2% % from ATHi−4.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.03
N225Nikkei 225
64,884.84−0.42%
Day Range 64,605.69 — 65,317.69
50-DMAi+13.0% 200-DMAi+26.8% RSI(14)i67 YTDi+25.1% % from ATHi−0.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.67
HSIHang Seng
25,640.05+0.13%
Day Range 25,422.00 — 25,771.50
50-DMAi−0.5% 200-DMAi−1.4% RSI(14)i45 YTDi−2.7% % from ATHi−8.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.97
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
202.54+0.23%
Day Range 202.25 — 203.22
50-DMAi+6.0% 200-DMAi+9.1% RSI(14)i65 YTDi+8.6% % from ATHi−0.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.57
EEMMSCI Emerging
65.88−0.23%
Day Range 65.74 — 66.39
50-DMAi+6.8% 200-DMAi+16.0% RSI(14)i56 YTDi+17.1% % from ATHi−3.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.26
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
42.0Overvalued
+0.40% today
Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−4.9%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
32.2Overvalued
+0.40% today
Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst
Utilities+1.82%
Energy+1.43%
Industrials+0.53%
Materials+0.26%
Real Estate+0.10%
Tech−0.06%
Discretionary−0.11%
Healthcare−0.18%
Financials−0.38%
Telecom−0.60%
Staples−0.64%

04.3US Rates · Treasuries & Credit

Mixed
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

The curve flattened modestly from the front end: the 2Y rose 4 bp to 4.08% while the 10Y held at 4.57% and the 30Y eased 1 bp to 5.10%, leaving the 2s10s spread at +49 bp. Real rates did the heavy lifting, with the 10Y TIPS yield climbing 5 bp to 2.18% against a nearly unchanged 10Y breakeven at 2.40%, pointing to tighter real financial conditions rather than a shift in inflation expectations. Credit markets shrugged it off: HY OAS compressed 2 bp to 278 while IG OAS was flat at 75, signaling steady risk appetite despite the real-rate repricing.

US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.08%+4 bp
5D range 4.04 — 4.13
5-day Δ+8 bp YTD Δ+61 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.57%0 bp
5D range 4.57 — 4.67
10–2 spread+49 bp YTD Δ+38 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
5.10%−1 bp
5D range 5.10 — 5.18
5-day Δ+8 bp YTD Δ+24 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.07T +$21.6B (1d)
+7.9% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.30T +9.6% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.34%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.34% +0.05pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.7%
~$10.04T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.18% +5 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.40% +1 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.78% −2 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.75% 0 bp
tight · late-cycle

04.4Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Bid
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

Japanese Government Bond yields across the curve. Falling yields = bond prices up (bid); rising yields = bonds offered. BoJ policy moves transmit here first and set the JPY carry-trade backdrop.

JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.42%−2 bp
5D range 1.42 — 1.46
5-day Δ−1 bp YTD Δ+23 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.69%−6 bp
5D range 2.69 — 2.78
10–2 spread+127 bp YTD Δ+58 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
3.88%−6 bp
5D range 3.88 — 4.04
5-day Δ−12 bp YTD Δ+48 bp

04.5Commodities

Bullish
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy led the commodity complex with WTI crude up nearly 3%, Brent adding 2.4%, and natural gas surging over 6%. Precious metals were quieter: gold edged up 0.18% to $4531.40 and silver gained 0.83% to $76.83, holding recent highs without extending them.

CLWTI Crude
$112.25+2.99%
5D range $104.52 — $112.25
50-DMAi+12.7% 200-DMAi+56.5% RSI(14)i62 YTDi+96.2%
COBrent
$116.73+2.43%
5D range $110.28 — $116.73
50-DMAi+4.5% 200-DMAi+50.0% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+88.3%
NGNatural Gas
$3.07+6.23%
5D range $2.79 — $3.07
50-DMAi+6.7% 200-DMAi−16.7% RSI(14)i59 YTDi+8.9%
XAUGold
$4,531.40+0.18%
5D range $4,523.70 — $4,583.30
50-DMAi−3.0% 200-DMAi−0.5% RSI(14)i41 YTDi+3.2%
XAGSilver
$76.83+0.83%
5D range $76.03 — $79.25
50-DMAi0.0% 200-DMAi+8.0% RSI(14)i48 YTDi+5.5%

04.6Crypto Assets

Bearish
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

Bitcoin traded essentially flat at $76,790.99 while ETH ticked up 0.21% to $2,098.09 and SOL slipped 0.58% to $84.48. Total crypto market cap contracted 0.57% on the day, and the Fear & Greed index reads 34 (Fear), reflecting cautious positioning. BTC dominance remains elevated at 58.2%, consistent with capital hugging the large-cap anchor. Perp funding is positive but not stretched (BTC +6.84% APR, ETH +3.41% APR), and DeFi TVL was roughly unchanged at +0.18%. Spot ETF flows were negative for both BTC ($-105M) and ETH ($-7M), adding to the subdued tone.

BTCBitcoin
$76,790.99−0.20%
Day Range $76,452.00 — $77,703.00
50-DMAi0.0% 200-DMAi−4.6% RSI(14)i46 % from ATHi−39.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.93
ETHEthereum
$2,098.09+0.21%
Day Range $2,084.19 — $2,135.69
50-DMAi−7.3% 200-DMAi−17.6% RSI(14)i38 % from ATHi−57.0% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.08
SOLSolana
$84.48−0.58%
Day Range $83.76 — $85.02
50-DMAi−2.3% 200-DMAi−20.9% RSI(14)i44 % from ATHi−71.2% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.08
ENAEthena
$0.0997−0.39%
Day Range $0.0971 — $0.1000
50-DMAi−9.4% 200-DMAi−37.7% RSI(14)i41 % from ATHi−93.5% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.80
HYPEHyperliquid
$60.20−1.45%
Day Range $58.59 — $61.22
50-DMAi+38.3% 200-DMAi+75.1% RSI(14)i69 % from ATHi−3.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.93
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001783+1.07%
Day Range $0.001738 — $0.001859
50-DMAi−1.0% 200-DMAi−19.0% RSI(14)i48 % from ATHi−79.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.32
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.53T −0.20%
58.2% of total
ETH Mcap
$253.2B +0.21%
9.6% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$321.3B −0.06%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.64T −0.57%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$66.7B +5.70%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$5.2B +17.23%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$178.3B −4.21%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$3.5B −15.42%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$81.8B +0.18%
all chains
Lending TVL
$41.1B +0.09%
money markets
DEX TVL
$13.1B −0.46%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.36%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+6.84% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+3.41% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.13 large traders long
1.13× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
34 Fear
Δ +4 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
4.31% +0.80 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 4.28%
USDTi
3.04% −0.47 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.04%
DAIi
2.70% −0.81 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 2.70%
WETHi
1.82% −0.00 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.82%

04.7Pre-IPO & Onchain Equity Perpsi

Bearishi
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

Pre-IPO perps on Hyperliquid are trading at an average premium of +14.50% above oracle valuations, with Anthropic the widest at +16.05%, followed by SpaceX at +14.15% and OpenAI at +13.31%.

SPACEXi SpaceX
$2.31T -0.42% 24h
+14.15% vs oraclei
Oraclei$2.02T Last roundi$137B · Jan 2023 Financialsi$18.7B · FY25 P/S (oracle)i108.3× OIi1,980 Fundingi+47.0%/yr Vol 24h$63k
Cross-venuei xyz:SPCX · $206.51/share · -0.62% · vol $6.6M
ANTHROPICi Anthropic
$1.42T +3.79% 24h
+16.05% vs oraclei
Oraclei$1.22T Last roundi$380B · Feb 2026 Financialsi$19.2B · Q1 26 P/S (oracle)i28.0× fwd · 63.6× TTM OIi4,887 Fundingi+59.6%/yr Vol 24h$72k
OPENAIi OpenAI
$1.30T -0.73% 24h
+13.31% vs oraclei
Oraclei$1.15T Last roundi$852B · Mar 2026 Financialsi$24B · Mar 26 P/S (oracle)i47.8× OIi2,624 Fundingi+43.7%/yr Vol 24h$12k
CRCLi Circle Internet
$113.75 -1.24% 24h
OIi225,895 Fundingi+5.5%/yr Vol 24h$5.2M
COINi Coinbase
$187.72 -1.28% 24h
OIi26,056 Fundingi+5.5%/yr Vol 24h$1.7M
MSTRi MicroStrategy
$162.58 -1.27% 24h
OIi90,553 Fundingi+5.5%/yr Vol 24h$2.5M

Sector-thematic equity baskets

MAG7i Magnificent 7
69.84 -0.74% 24h
OIi7,411 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$15k
SEMISi Semiconductors
587.78 +0.17% 24h
OIi572 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$10k
DEFENSEi Defense
65.63 +3.63% 24h
OIi1,849 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$15k
ROBOTi Robotics
40.96 -1.88% 24h
OIi2,758 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$2k
NUCLEARi Nuclear
132.29 -1.86% 24h
OIi1,219 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$52k

04.8Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Distributing
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

Corporate and fund-level BTC treasuries now total 1,272,129 BTC (6.06% of supply, roughly $97.7B), with ETH holdings at 7,271,157 ETH (6.02% of supply) and SOL at 18.5M tokens (3.19%). Spot ETF flows are firmly negative over the past week: BTC saw $1.26B in cumulative outflows and ETH lost $216M, while SOL bucked the trend with a modest $16M of net inflows over seven days.

Asset Total Held USD Value % of Supply Top Public Holders
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
 1.27 M BTC $97.7 B 6.06% Strategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 40k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
 7.27 M ETH $15.3 B 6.02% BitMine Immersion 5.28M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Coinbase Global 151k · Bit Digital 140k
◎
Solana
SOL
 18.46 M SOL $1.6 B 3.19% Forward Industries 7.01M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB… Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM) 1. IBIT BlackRock $61.2 B 2. FBTC Fidelity $14.2 B 3. GBTC Grayscale $11.3 B 4. BITB Bitwise $4.7 B 5. BTC Grayscale Mini $4.0 B + 8 more Flow data as of 22 May 2026
AUM
$100.6 B
24h Flow−$105 M
7-day Flow−$1.26 B
YTD Flowi+$535 M
ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH… Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM) 1. ETHA BlackRock $6.3 B 2. ETH Grayscale Mini $1.7 B 3. ETHE Grayscale $1.7 B 4. FETH Fidelity $1.2 B 5. ETHB BlackRock $599.5 M + 5 more Flow data as of 22 May 2026
AUM
$11.9 B
24h Flow−$7 M
7-day Flow−$216 M
YTD Flowi−$702 M
SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL… Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM) 1. BSOL Bitwise $560.0 M 2. GSOL Grayscale $110.6 M 3. VSOL VanEck $14.9 M 4. SOEZ Franklin $9.6 M 5. TSOL VanEck $3.2 M + 1 more Flow data as of 22 May 2026
AUM
$698.3 M
24h Flow+$6 M
7-day Flow+$16 M
YTD Flowi+$54 M

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ
Asset Last Trendi Supporti Resistancei RSIi RSI Status Signal
SPX S&P 500 7,473.47 Bullish 6,987.96 7,506.32 68 Neutral Buyconf 65%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp. 26,343.97 Bullish 23,926.85 26,504.55 68 Neutral Buyconf 65%
DXY Dollar Index 111.71 USD ↑ 111.49 111.71 60 Neutral Sellconf 65%
VIX Volatility 16.59 Suppressed 16.53 18.36 41 Neutral Hedgeconf 55%
US10Y US 10Y Yield 4.57% Yields ↑ 4.37% 4.67% 62 Neutral Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude $112.25 Bullish $99.60 $112.25 62 Neutral Buyconf 75%
XAU Gold $4,531 Bearish $4,524 $4,552 41 Neutral Sellconf 60%
BTC Bitcoin $76,791 Sideways $76,774 $80,526 46 Neutral Holdconf 50%
ETH Ethereum $2,098 Bearish $2,084 $2,264 38 Neutral Sellconf 75%

06Key Events

Next 7 days
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

Six high-impact U.S. macro releases land in the next seven days, headlined by Wednesday's triple print of Core PCE (Apr), Durable Goods Orders, and Personal Income, all at 12:30 ET on May 28. The following week opens with ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun 1) and JOLTs Job Openings (Jun 2). On the earnings side, CRM reports tomorrow (May 27) and COST follows the day after (May 28), giving a read on enterprise software demand and consumer spending resilience.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

  • Today
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     CB Consumer Confidence (May)Est: 91.90 · prev 92.80 High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Price Index MoM (Apr)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.30 % High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders MoM (Apr)Est: 3.50 % · prev 0.80 % High
  • Mon
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)Est: 53 · prev 52.70 High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Apr)Est: 0.50 % · prev 0.90 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Initial Jobless Claims (May/23)Est: 211 K · prev 209 K Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Price Index MoM (Apr)Est: 0.50 % · prev 0.70 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Price Index YoY (Apr)Est: 3.80 % · prev 3.50 % Medium
  • Thu
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     New Home Sales (Apr)Est: 0.67 M · prev 0.68 M Medium
  • Fri
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Goods Trade Balance (Apr)Est: -88.60 B · prev -87.45 B Medium
  • Fri
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Goods Trade Balance Adv (Apr)Est: -87 B · prev -87.45 B Medium
  • Mon
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     ISM Manufacturing Employment (May)Est: 46.60 · prev 46.40 Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr)Est: 3.30 % · prev 3.20 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (Apr)Est: 2.20 % · prev -0.30 % Low
  • Mon
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     ISM Manufacturing New Orders (May)Est: 54.30 · prev 54.10 Low
  • Mon
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     ISM Manufacturing Prices (May)Est: 86 · prev 84.60 Low
1 / 3

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

  • Tomorrow · After close CRM — SalesforceEPS est $3.12 (+21% YoY) · Rev est $11.1B (+12% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close COST — CostcoEPS est $4.98 (+16% YoY) · Rev est $69.6B (+10% YoY) High
1 / 1

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Late-cyclei
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

Daily reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018).

Today's read

Capital Markets, Yield Spreads, and Investors all register warm alongside a still-expanding Economy and eager Lenders, painting a classic late-cycle picture. Interest Rates stand as the lone cold holdout, with real yields at 2.13% still meaningfully above neutral.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 16 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Wait
Refreshed 26 May 2026 06:14 UTC · 08:14 CEST Sources ⓘ

Wait. Late-cycle stretch with overvalued equities and geopolitical headwinds warrants patience

The cycle framework reads late-cycle: capital markets, yield spreads, and investor behavior all register warm while real yields at 2.18% remain restrictive. Equity valuations confirm the caution. CAPE 10 at 42.04 sits deep in Overvalued territory (long-run mean: 17.38), and trailing P/E at 32.19 is nearly double its 16.22 mean. Today's sector dispersion was wide: Utilities led at +1.82% while Consumer Defensive lagged at -0.64%, a 2.5pp spread typical of late-cycle rotation into defensives. WTI surging to $112.25 (+3.0%) on Iran war pressures (per Bloomberg) adds stagflationary risk with CPI already at 3.81% and PPI near 6%. Crypto sits in Fear at 34, but BTC ETF outflows of $1.26B over seven days and rising Binance inflows (per NewsBTC) signal distribution, not accumulation. Pre-IPO perp premiums averaging +14.5% above oracle valuations reveal pockets of speculative excess that clash with the broader risk-off news tone at -9. The 30-year at 5.1% offers real compensation; equities do not. CB Consumer Confidence today and the ECB press conference tomorrow could reset sentiment quickly.

24h Bias
Defensive lean, avoid chasing
Equities
Wait for pullback below 7200
Bonds
Add small at 30Y 5.1% yield
Commodities
Hold gold, trim energy on spike
Crypto
Wait for ETF flow reversal
Vol hedge
Add puts, VIX 16.59 is cheap