Daily Market Report

Late-Cycle Stretch Meets Crypto Caution

Live Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST

01Daily Summary

Mixed Signals
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Crypto markets are treading water this weekend: BTC holds near $77,254 (+0.7%) while ETH slips 0.7%, and crypto Fear & Greed sits at 30 (Fear) despite a mildly bullish news backdrop. BTC ETF outflows hit $1.26 billion over seven days. At Friday's close, the S&P 500 finished at 7,473 (+0.4%) with VIX calm at 16.70, but the 30-year yield at 5.10% and 10-year real yields jumping 5 bp to 2.18% underscore persistent rate pressure. CAPE 10 at 42.04, more than double its long-run mean, keeps the late-cycle warning flag raised.

S&P 500+0.37%NASDAQ+0.19%US10Y0 bpWTI+2.99%Gold+0.95%BTC+0.73%ETH−0.70%DXY+0.47%VIX−0.36%

02Macro Snapshot

Mixed signals
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Benchmark Rates Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Fed Ratei 3.50 – 3.75 % unchanged 29 Apr 2026 17 Jun 2026 Fed funds at 3.50-3.75% supports moderate risk asset valuations.
ECB Ratei 2.00 % unchanged 16 Apr 2026 4 Jun 2026 ECB rate at 2.00% eases pressure on European risk assets.
BoJ Ratei 0.75 % unchanged 28 Apr 2026 16 Jun 2026 BoJ rate at 0.75% keeps JPY carry trade attractive.
SOFRi 3.51 % +1 bp daily tomorrow SOFR at 3.51% after rising 1bp tightens short-end funding slightly.
IPOR USDCi 4.02 % +51 bp real-time — USDC IPOR at 4.02% exceeds SOFR by 51bp signaling strong leverage demand.
IPOR WETHi 1.83 % +0 bp real-time — WETH IPOR at 1.83% indicates moderate onchain ETH borrowing costs.
ETH Ratei 2.36 % — real-time — ETH staking yield at 2.36% provides steady return for holders.
Inflation Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CPI YoY (headline)i 3.8 % +0.6 pp 12 May 2026 10 Jun 2026 Headline CPI at 3.8% keeps Fed cautious on further cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i 2.8 % +0.1 pp 12 May 2026 10 Jun 2026 Core CPI at 2.8% shows moderate underlying inflation persistence.
PPI YoY (headline)i 6.0 % +1.7 pp 13 May 2026 11 Jun 2026 PPI at 6.0% signals upstream price pressures ahead of CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i 5.2 % +1.3 pp 13 May 2026 11 Jun 2026 Core PPI at 5.2% reveals persistent upstream inflation above core CPI.
Labor Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) 158.74 M jobs +115 k 8 May 2026 5 Jun 2026 NFP gain of 115k indicates steady but slowing labor market growth.
Unemployment Ratei 4.3 % unchanged pp 8 May 2026 5 Jun 2026 Unemployment at 4.3% points to rising labor market slack.
Activity Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY) +1.4 % +0.6 pp 15 May 2026 15 Jun 2026 Industrial production up 1.4% YoY shows modest manufacturing strength.
Retail Salesi (m/m) +0.5 % −1.4 pp 14 May 2026 17 Jun 2026 Retail sales up 0.5% m/m reflect resilient consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi 52.7 +0.3 April 2026 — ISM manufacturing at 52.7 signals continued factory sector expansion.
ISM Services PMIi 53.6 -0.4 April 2026 — ISM services at 53.6 confirms ongoing services sector growth.
Yield Curve Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi 49 bp — daily tomorrow Positive curve. Recession odds receding.
Sentiment Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) 59 (Greed) unchanged daily tomorrow Equity sentiment at 59 reflects Greed regime for risk assets.
Crypto Fear & Greedi 30 (Fear) +5 daily tomorrow Crypto sentiment at 30 indicates Fear creating potential opportunity.
News Sentimenti +22 (Greed) −6 every 30 min — News sentiment at +22 shows Greed narrative supporting bullish views.

03News Sentiment

Greed
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −40 to +37 · current +22 (Greed) · −6 24h
7 days ago today
Direction
bull 88% bear 12% ± 14% uncertainty
Coverage
macro 77% crypto 15% mixed 8%
What's driving today's news sentiment Top 3 · sorted by impact
+26 Bullish long-term
US-Iran Deal Progress Boosts Crypto Sentiment on Geopolitical De-escalation
US official expresses confidence in advancing a deal with Iran, indicating potential geopolitical easing that could improve global risk appetite and positively influence crypto markets.
bloomberg.comconf 70% Market-Wide
+12 Neutral US Allows Scrapping of Iranian-Sanctioned Ships, Signaling Limited Sanction Relaxation bloomberg.com
0 Neutral Change in Social Security Payment Financial Agent Affecting 3.6 Million Beneficiaries nasdaq.com

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Mixed
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's mega-cap tape was split down the middle: five of nine names finished green, but the winners and losers told different stories. AMD led the cohort with a nearly 4% surge and TSLA added roughly 2%, while NVDA slipped almost 2% and GOOGL dropped over 1%. Net effect was a modest positive tilt, though the semis divergence (AMD up, NVDA down) kept conviction muted.

AAPLApple
$308.82+1.26%
Day Range $305.85 — $311.40
P/E TTMi37.1 P/E Fwdi32.1 50-DMAi+14.1% 200-DMAi+18.1% RSI(14)i78 YTDi+14.0% % from ATHi−0.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.96
MSFTMicrosoft
$418.57−0.12%
Day Range $418.52 — $424.40
P/E TTMi24.8 P/E Fwdi21.5 50-DMAi+4.5% 200-DMAi−9.1% RSI(14)i54 YTDi−11.5% % from ATHi−24.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.70
GOOGLAlphabet
$382.97−1.21%
Day Range $382.78 — $388.74
P/E TTMi28.9 P/E Fwdi27.0 50-DMAi+12.3% 200-DMAi+29.3% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+21.5% % from ATHi−6.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+3.10
AMZNAmazon
$266.32−0.80%
Day Range $266.24 — $269.79
P/E TTMi31.5 P/E Fwdi30.4 50-DMAi+10.1% 200-DMAi+15.5% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+17.6% % from ATHi−4.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.55
NVDANVIDIA
$215.33−1.90%
Day Range $215.27 — $220.90
P/E TTMi32.8 P/E Fwdi24.4 50-DMAi+9.4% 200-DMAi+15.1% RSI(14)i54 YTDi+14.0% % from ATHi−9.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.30
METAMeta Platforms
$610.26+0.47%
Day Range $606.96 — $614.81
P/E TTMi21.9 P/E Fwdi18.6 50-DMAi−1.2% 200-DMAi−8.8% RSI(14)i45 YTDi−6.2% % from ATHi−23.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.77
TSLATesla
$426.01+1.95%
Day Range $422.67 — $431.51
P/E TTMi355.4 P/E Fwdi223.8 50-DMAi+9.7% 200-DMAi+3.9% RSI(14)i58 YTDi−2.8% % from ATHi−14.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.45
INTCIntel
$119.84+1.13%
Day Range $118.09 — $122.78
P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi111.3 50-DMAi+56.8% 200-DMAi+154.1% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+204.3% % from ATHi−9.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.78
AMDAMD
$467.51+3.99%
Day Range $461.71 — $481.37
P/E TTMi152.2 P/E Fwdi62.8 50-DMAi+54.2% 200-DMAi+102.5% RSI(14)i73 YTDi+109.2% % from ATHi−2.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.80

04.2Indices

Bullishi
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

US benchmarks closed Friday with broad green across the board, led by the SOXX semiconductor index at +2.41% and the Russell 2000 at +0.91%, signaling a risk-on tilt favoring cyclicals and small caps. The S&P 500 added 0.37%, the Dow gained 0.58%, and the Nasdaq lagged slightly at +0.19%, a rare underperformance for the tech-heavy index. The SPX-vs-RSP YTD gap sits at just +1.85 pp (8.97% vs 7.11%), suggesting breadth remains reasonably healthy with no extreme Mag7 concentration at this point. VIX drifted lower to 16.7, consistent with the calm tone. Globally, the Nikkei stood out with a 3.12% jump while EM equities (EEM -0.23%) were the lone soft spot.

US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,473.47+0.37%
Day Range 7,463.29 — 7,506.32
50-DMAi+6.9% 200-DMAi+9.8% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+9.0% % from ATHi−0.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.75
IXICNasdaq Comp.
26,343.97+0.19%
Day Range 26,309.80 — 26,504.55
50-DMAi+10.1% 200-DMAi+14.1% RSI(14)i68 YTDi+13.4% % from ATHi−1.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.81
DJIDow Jones Ind.
50,579.70+0.58%
Day Range 50,434.65 — 50,830.24
50-DMAi+4.8% 200-DMAi+6.2% RSI(14)i65 YTDi+4.5% % from ATHi−0.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.11
RUTRussell 2000
2,869.22+0.91%
Day Range 2,855.12 — 2,878.61
50-DMAi+14.6% 200-DMAi+16.5% RSI(14)i61 YTDi+14.4% % from ATHi−0.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.19
SOXXSemiconductors
537.33+2.41%
Day Range 531.81 — 541.89
50-DMAi+28.2% 200-DMAi+62.9% RSI(14)i69 YTDi+71.3% % from ATHi−0.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+3.41
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
206.58+0.91%
Day Range 205.52 — 206.97
50-DMAi+3.9% 200-DMAi+6.5% RSI(14)i64 YTDi+7.1% vs SPX YTDi−1.9pp Cap-weight sharei+21%
VIXiVolatility Idx
16.70−0.36%
Day Range 16.46 — 17.39
50-DMAi−19.6% 200-DMAi−9.0% RSI(14)i41 YTDi+15.1%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
111.71+0.47%
5-day Range 110.34 — 111.71
50-DMAi+0.2% 200-DMAi+0.3% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+0.5%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,466.26+0.22%
Day Range 10,435.53 — 10,497.22
50-DMAi+1.3% 200-DMAi+5.6% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+5.2% % from ATHi−4.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.03
N225Nikkei 225
65,312.19+3.12%
Day Range 63,562.51 — 65,408.87
50-DMAi+14.2% 200-DMAi+27.9% RSI(14)i69 YTDi+26.0% % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+2.70
HSIHang Seng
25,606.03+0.86%
Day Range 25,483.24 — 25,732.36
50-DMAi−0.7% 200-DMAi−1.5% RSI(14)i44 YTDi−2.8% % from ATHi−8.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.97
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
202.54+0.23%
Day Range 202.25 — 203.22
50-DMAi+6.0% 200-DMAi+9.1% RSI(14)i65 YTDi+8.6% % from ATHi−0.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.57
EEMMSCI Emerging
65.88−0.23%
Day Range 65.74 — 66.39
50-DMAi+6.8% 200-DMAi+16.0% RSI(14)i56 YTDi+17.1% % from ATHi−3.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.26
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
42.0Overvalued
+0.40% today
Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−4.9%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
32.2Overvalued
+0.40% today
Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst
Utilities+1.82%
Energy+1.43%
Industrials+0.53%
Materials+0.26%
Real Estate+0.10%
Tech−0.06%
Discretionary−0.11%
Healthcare−0.18%
Financials−0.38%
Telecom−0.60%
Staples−0.64%

04.3US Rates · Treasuries & Credit

Mixed
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The Treasury curve steepened modestly at the front end on Friday: 2Y yields rose 4 bp to 4.08% while the 10Y held flat at 4.57% and the 30Y eased 1 bp to 5.10%, leaving the 2s10s spread at +49 bp. The real-rate picture is notable: 10Y TIPS real yield climbed 5 bp to 2.18% even as the 10Y breakeven barely budged (+1 bp to 2.40%), meaning the move was driven by higher real rates rather than shifting inflation expectations. Credit markets remain sanguine, with HY OAS tightening 2 bp to 278 and IG OAS unchanged at 75 bp, showing no stress despite the elevated long end.

US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.08%+4 bp
5D range 4.04 — 4.13
5-day Δ+8 bp YTD Δ+61 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.57%0 bp
5D range 4.57 — 4.67
10–2 spread+49 bp YTD Δ+38 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
5.10%−1 bp
5D range 5.10 — 5.18
5-day Δ+8 bp YTD Δ+24 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.07T +$21.6B (1d)
+7.9% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.30T +9.6% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.34%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.34% +0.05pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.7%
~$10.04T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.18% +5 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.40% +1 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.78% −2 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.75% 0 bp
tight · late-cycle

04.4Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Bid
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Japanese Government Bond yields across the curve. Falling yields = bond prices up (bid); rising yields = bonds offered. BoJ policy moves transmit here first and set the JPY carry-trade backdrop.

JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.44%−1 bp
5D range 1.43 — 1.46
5-day Δ+3 bp YTD Δ+25 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.75%+0 bp
5D range 2.73 — 2.78
10–2 spread+131 bp YTD Δ+64 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
3.93%−1 bp
5D range 3.93 — 4.04
5-day Δ+1 bp YTD Δ+54 bp

04.5Commodities

Bullish
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy led the commodity complex on Friday, with WTI crude up roughly 3%, Brent adding about 2.4%, and natural gas surging over 6%. Precious metals joined the bid: gold rose nearly 1% to $4566.10 while silver outperformed at +2.78%, pushing to $78.32.

CLWTI Crude
$112.25+2.99%
5D range $104.52 — $112.25
50-DMAi+12.7% 200-DMAi+56.5% RSI(14)i62 YTDi+96.2%
COBrent
$116.73+2.43%
5D range $110.28 — $116.73
50-DMAi+4.5% 200-DMAi+50.0% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+88.3%
NGNatural Gas
$3.07+6.23%
5D range $2.79 — $3.07
50-DMAi+6.7% 200-DMAi−16.7% RSI(14)i59 YTDi+8.9%
XAUGold
$4,566.10+0.95%
5D range $4,531.30 — $4,582.60
50-DMAi−2.2% 200-DMAi+0.4% RSI(14)i44 YTDi+4.1%
XAGSilver
$78.32+2.78%
5D range $76.70 — $79.25
50-DMAi+2.2% 200-DMAi+10.3% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+7.6%

04.6Crypto Assets

Mixed
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Bitcoin is holding above $77,250 (+0.73% over 24 hours) while ETH lags at $2,102 (-0.70%) and SOL edges up to $85.68 (+0.60%), keeping BTC dominance elevated at 58.3%. Total crypto market cap is up a modest 0.41%, but the mood is cautious: the Fear & Greed index reads 30 (Fear), and DeFi TVL ticked down 0.12%. Perp funding rates are positive but divergent, with ETH annualizing near 8.8% versus BTC at 2.6%, hinting at relatively more leveraged long positioning in ETH despite its spot weakness. Spot ETF flows are a headwind, with BTC seeing $105M in outflows and ETH losing $7M on the latest day.

BTCBitcoin
$77,254.37+0.73%
Day Range $76,053.00 — $77,356.33
50-DMAi+0.9% 200-DMAi−4.2% RSI(14)i48 % from ATHi−38.7% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.87
ETHEthereum
$2,101.92−0.70%
Day Range $2,067.46 — $2,125.70
50-DMAi−7.1% 200-DMAi−17.7% RSI(14)i38 % from ATHi−56.9% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.94
SOLSolana
$85.68+0.60%
Day Range $84.69 — $85.81
50-DMAi−0.8% 200-DMAi−20.3% RSI(14)i47 % from ATHi−70.8% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.93
ENAEthena
$0.0995+0.74%
Day Range $0.0978 — $0.0996
50-DMAi−9.5% 200-DMAi−41.5% RSI(14)i41 % from ATHi−93.5% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.76
HYPEHyperliquid
$62.57−0.27%
Day Range $60.78 — $62.88
50-DMAi+45.5% 200-DMAi+82.6% RSI(14)i75 % from ATHiATH Sharpe(1Y)i+1.04
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001755−0.60%
Day Range $0.001699 — $0.001777
50-DMAi−2.5% 200-DMAi−23.7% RSI(14)i46 % from ATHi−79.6% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.33
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.54T +0.73%
58.3% of total
ETH Mcap
$253.7B −0.70%
9.5% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$321.0B −0.05%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.66T +0.41%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$63.1B −22.72%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$4.5B −20.42%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$186.1B −21.86%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$4.2B −22.96%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$81.8B −0.12%
all chains
Lending TVL
$41.0B −0.16%
money markets
DEX TVL
$13.2B −0.42%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.36%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+2.62% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+8.78% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.12 large traders long
1.12× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
30 Fear
Δ +5 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
4.02% +0.51 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 4.15%
USDTi
3.08% −0.43 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.08%
DAIi
2.69% −0.82 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 2.70%
WETHi
1.83% +0.00 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.82%

04.7Pre-IPO & Onchain Equity Perpsi

Bearishi
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Pre-IPO perps on Hyperliquid are trading at an average premium of +14.14% above oracle valuations, with Anthropic at +14.66%, SpaceX at +14.51%, and OpenAI at +13.24%. All three names are clustered tightly in double-digit positive territory.

SPACEXi SpaceX
$2.33T +0.94% 24h
+14.51% vs oraclei
Oraclei$2.03T OIi1,980 Fundingi+48.6%/yr Vol 24h$193k
Cross-venuei xyz:SPCX · $207.63/share · -0.47% · vol $15.7M
ANTHROPICi Anthropic
$1.37T -2.04% 24h
+14.66% vs oraclei
Oraclei$1.20T OIi4,879 Fundingi+49.8%/yr Vol 24h$58k
OPENAIi OpenAI
$1.30T +2.61% 24h
+13.24% vs oraclei
Oraclei$1.15T OIi2,624 Fundingi+43.6%/yr Vol 24h$167k
CRCLi Circle Internet
$115.25 -0.16% 24h
OIi233,913 Fundingi+73.5%/yr Vol 24h$4.1M
COINi Coinbase
$189.82 +0.73% 24h
OIi29,527 Fundingi+110.6%/yr Vol 24h$1.2M
MSTRi MicroStrategy
$164.62 +1.22% 24h
OIi92,744 Fundingi+202.9%/yr Vol 24h$1.6M

Sector-thematic equity baskets

MAG7i Magnificent 7
70.44 +0.09% 24h
OIi7,359 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$10k
SEMISi Semiconductors
580.12 -2.58% 24h
OIi606 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$5k
DEFENSEi Defense
64.54 +0.21% 24h
OIi2,206 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$2k
ROBOTi Robotics
41.01 +0.11% 24h
OIi2,856 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$249
NUCLEARi Nuclear
134.59 +0.11% 24h
OIi1,315 Fundingi0.0%/yr Vol 24h$24k

04.8Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Distributing
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Corporate and fund-level BTC treasuries now total roughly 1.27 million BTC (~$98.3B, 6.06% of supply), while ETH holdings stand at 7.27 million ETH (~$15.3B, 6.02% of supply). Spot ETF flows have been decisively negative over the past week: BTC funds shed $1.26B and ETH funds lost $216M, with only SOL ETFs bucking the trend at a modest +$16M over seven days.

Asset Total Held USD Value % of Supply Top Public Holders
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
 1.27 M BTC $98.3 B 6.06% Strategy 844k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 40k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
 7.27 M ETH $15.3 B 6.02% BitMine Immersion 5.28M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Coinbase Global 151k · Bit Digital 140k
◎
Solana
SOL
 18.46 M SOL $1.6 B 3.19% Forward Industries 7.01M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB… Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM) 1. IBIT BlackRock $61.2 B 2. FBTC Fidelity $14.2 B 3. GBTC Grayscale $11.3 B 4. BITB Bitwise $4.7 B 5. BTC Grayscale Mini $4.0 B + 8 more Flow data as of 22 May 2026
AUM
$100.6 B
24h Flow−$105 M
7-day Flow−$1.26 B
YTD Flowi+$535 M
ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH… Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM) 1. ETHA BlackRock $6.3 B 2. ETH Grayscale Mini $1.7 B 3. ETHE Grayscale $1.7 B 4. FETH Fidelity $1.2 B 5. ETHB BlackRock $599.5 M + 5 more Flow data as of 22 May 2026
AUM
$11.9 B
24h Flow−$7 M
7-day Flow−$216 M
YTD Flowi−$702 M
SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL… Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM) 1. BSOL Bitwise $560.0 M 2. GSOL Grayscale $110.6 M 3. VSOL VanEck $14.9 M 4. SOEZ Franklin $9.6 M 5. TSOL VanEck $3.2 M + 1 more Flow data as of 22 May 2026
AUM
$698.3 M
24h Flow+$6 M
7-day Flow+$16 M
YTD Flowi+$75 M

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Asset Last Trendi Supporti Resistancei RSIi RSI Status Signal
SPX S&P 500 7,473.47 Bullish 6,987.96 7,506.32 68 Neutral Buyconf 65%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp. 26,343.97 Bullish 23,926.85 26,504.55 68 Neutral Buyconf 65%
DXY Dollar Index 111.71 USD ↑ 111.49 111.71 60 Neutral Sellconf 65%
VIX Volatility 16.70 Suppressed 16.46 18.36 41 Neutral Hedgeconf 55%
US10Y US 10Y Yield 4.57% Yields ↑ 4.37% 4.67% 62 Neutral Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude $112.25 Bullish $99.60 $112.25 62 Neutral Buyconf 75%
XAU Gold $4,566 Sideways $4,548 $4,671 44 Neutral Holdconf 50%
BTC Bitcoin $77,254 Sideways $76,580 $80,660 48 Neutral Holdconf 50%
ETH Ethereum $2,102 Bearish $2,067 $2,263 38 Neutral Sellconf 75%

06Key Events

Next 7 days
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Wednesday's data dump is the week's main event: Core PCE for April, personal income and spending, and durable goods orders all land at 12:30 UTC on May 28, giving markets a comprehensive read on the consumer and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. ISM Manufacturing PMI follows on June 1. On the earnings side, CRM reports Tuesday and COST reports Wednesday, bookending the macro releases.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

  • Tomorrow
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     CB Consumer Confidence (May)Est: 91.90 · prev 92.80 High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Price Index MoM (Apr)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.30 % High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders MoM (Apr)Est: 0.40 % · prev 0.80 % High
  • Mon, Jun 1 ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)prev 52.70 High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Apr)Est: 0.50 % · prev 0.90 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Initial Jobless Claims (May/23)Est: 212 K · prev 209 K Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Price Index YoY (Apr)Est: 3.80 % · prev 3.50 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Price Index MoM (Apr)Est: 0.50 % · prev 0.70 % Medium
  • Thu
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     New Home Sales (Apr)Est: 0.67 M · prev 0.68 M Medium
  • Fri
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Goods Trade Balance Adv (Apr)Est: -89 B · prev -87.45 B Medium
  • Fri
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Goods Trade Balance (Apr)Est: -88.60 B · prev -87.45 B Medium
  • Mon, Jun 1 ISM Manufacturing Employment (May)prev 46.40 Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (Apr)Est: -0.20 % · prev -0.30 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr)Est: 3.30 % · prev 3.20 % Low
  • Mon, Jun 1 ISM Manufacturing New Orders (May)prev 54.10 Low
  • Mon, Jun 1 ISM Manufacturing Prices (May)prev 84.60 Low
1 / 3

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

  • Wed · After close CRM — SalesforceEPS est $3.12 (+21% YoY) · Rev est $11.1B (+12% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close COST — CostcoEPS est $4.98 (+16% YoY) · Rev est $69.6B (+10% YoY) High
1 / 1

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Late-cyclei
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Daily reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018).

Today's read

Capital Markets, Yield Spreads, and Investors all register warm alongside a still-expanding Economy and eager Lenders, painting a classic late-cycle picture. Interest Rates stand as the lone cold holdout, with real yields at 2.13% still meaningfully above neutral.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 16 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Wait
Refreshed 25 May 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Wait. Late-cycle overvaluation, speculative froth, and sticky inflation leave no margin of safety

Crypto trades in Fear territory (F&G 30) over the weekend, but that alone does not justify adding risk when the broader picture screams caution. The cycle position reads Late-cycle: capital markets, yield spreads, and investor behavior all register warm while real yields at 2.18% remain restrictive. CAPE 10 at 42.04 (vs. a 17.38 long-run mean) and trailing P/E at 32.19 (vs. 16.22) sit deep in Overvalued territory. Friday's sector spread was wide: Utilities led at +1.82% while Consumer Defensive lagged at -0.64%, a 2.46pp gap consistent with defensive rotation. WTI at $112.25 (+3.0%) feeds PPI running at 5.99% year-over-year, complicating the Fed's path from 3.50-3.75%. Pre-IPO perp premiums averaging +14.1% above oracle signal speculative excess in private-market proxies. BTC ETF outflows totaled $1.26B over seven days. The 30-year at 5.1% offers real compensation, but equities need a reset. CB Consumer Confidence tomorrow could shift tone; until then, patience pays.

24h Bias
Defensive, wait for clarity
Equities
Wait for 5-8% pullback to add
Bonds
Hold duration; 30Y at 5.1% fair
Commodities
Trim energy on geopolitical fade
Crypto
Wait; ETF outflows offset Fear signal
Vol hedge
Add small; VIX 16.70 is cheap