• Driver:Geopolitical peace signals lifted risk assets Friday. WTI crude surged 3.0% to $112.25, boosting Energy stocks while gold slipped 0.7%.
• Cross-asset:DXY firmed 0.47% Friday. 30Y yield at 5.10% and 10Y real yield rose 5bp to 2.18%, keeping rate-sensitive assets under pressure.
• Valuations:CAPE 10 at 42.04 and trailing P/E at 32.19 sit well above long-run means of 17.4 and 16.2. Both register overvalued, capping upside conviction.
• Sentiment:VIX calm at 16.70. Pre-IPO perp premiums average +13.7% above oracle, a speculative pocket at odds with crypto's Extreme Fear reading.

Friday's mega-cap tape was split down the middle: five of nine names finished green, but the winners and losers told different stories. AMD led the cohort with a nearly 4% surge while TSLA added about 2%, yet NVDA slipped almost 2% and GOOGL dropped over 1%, keeping the net move modest. Semis outperformed software on the session, though MSFT's fractional decline kept the group from tilting decisively bullish.

US equity benchmarks closed Friday with broad green across the board, led by the Russell 2000's +0.91% gain and a standout +2.41% session for SOXX, signaling renewed appetite for small caps and semiconductors. The S&P 500 added 0.37% while the Dow outpaced the Nasdaq (+0.58% vs +0.19%), a rotation-flavored session rather than a growth-led one. The SPX-vs-RSP YTD gap sits at a modest +1.85 pp (cap-weighted +8.97% vs equal-weight +7.11%), suggesting breadth remains reasonably healthy with no extreme Mag7 concentration at this point. VIX drifted lower to 16.7, consistent with the calm risk tone. Globally, the Nikkei stood out at +2.68%, while EEM slipped fractionally and European markets posted a quiet gain.

The Treasury curve flattened modestly on Friday: the 2Y rose 4 bp to 4.08% while the 10Y held flat at 4.57% and the 30Y ticked down 1 bp to 5.10%, leaving the 2s10s spread at +49 bp. The real-rate picture is notable. The 10Y TIPS yield climbed 5 bp to 2.18% while breakevens barely budged (+1 bp to 2.40%), meaning the session's move was almost entirely a real-rate repricing rather than an inflation scare. Credit spreads remain well-behaved: HY OAS tightened 2 bp to 278 and IG OAS was unchanged at 75, reflecting steady risk appetite even as duration pressure built at the front end.

Energy was the standout Friday, with WTI crude rallying roughly 3%, Brent up about 2.4%, and natural gas surging over 6%. Precious metals moved the other way: gold slipped 0.7% to $4510.50 and silver fell a similar amount to $76.199, a mild pullback after their recent run that aligns with the firmer dollar and rising real yields on the session.

Bitcoin is trading around $76,671, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours, while ETH outpaces at +2.4% near $2,117 and SOL is essentially flat at $85.81. Total crypto market cap is up about 1.7% with DeFi TVL tracking a similar gain, but the mood remains sour: the Fear and Greed index reads 25 (Extreme Fear), a stark disconnect from the positive price action. BTC dominance holds at 58.1%, keeping the alt rotation muted. Perp funding rates are positive but not stretched (BTC ~10.5% APR, ETH ~8.4% APR), suggesting longs are paying but not at levels that typically precede forced liquidation cascades. Spot ETF flows remain a headwind, with BTC seeing $105M in outflows and ETH losing $7M on the latest day.

Pre-IPO perps on Hyperliquid are running hot, with an average mark-vs-oracle premium of +13.7% across the three flagship names: SpaceX at +15.5%, Anthropic at +13.0%, and OpenAI at +12.7%. Perp traders are pricing all three well above their Notice-anchored valuations, a crowded-long positioning signal that the section's own framework flags as bearish.

Sector-thematic equity baskets

Corporate and fund-level BTC treasuries now total nearly 1.27 million BTC (roughly $97.5B, 6.06% of supply), while ETH holdings sit at about 7.27 million ETH ($15.4B, 6.02% of supply). Spot ETF flows are firmly negative on the week: BTC funds shed $1.26B over seven days and ETH funds lost $216M, though SOL bucked the trend with a modest $16M of weekly inflows. The persistent BTC outflow pace is the most notable signal here, suggesting institutional allocators are trimming exposure even as spot prices tick higher.

The week ahead is back-loaded with a data dump on Thursday (May 28): Core PCE, personal income, personal spending, and durable goods all land at 12:30 UTC, making it the single most important macro print cluster of the month. Before that, CB Consumer Confidence on Monday afternoon sets the tone for demand expectations. On the earnings side, CRM reports Wednesday and COST on Thursday, two reads on enterprise software spend and consumer resilience respectively.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction