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Daily Market Report

Oil Shock and Yield Spike Pressure Risk Assets

Live Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST

01Daily Summary

Risk-Off
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Crypto is flashing fear this weekend. BTC sits near $76,984 with a Crypto Fear & Greed score of 28, while BTC ETFs shed $290M in the latest session and $996M over seven days. At Friday's close, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% to 7,408 as WTI crude surged 2.7% to $101.56 and the 30-year Treasury yield breached 5.02%. US PPI at 6.0% year-over-year and core PPI at 5.2% reinforce the sticky-inflation narrative. Semiconductor names AMD and INTC fell over 5.5% each. HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) tightened 6 bp to 276 bp, a rare bright spot, but the broader picture tilts defensive in a late-cycle regime.

S&P 500−1.24%NASDAQ−1.54%US10Y+1 bpWTI+2.72%Gold−0.41%BTC−0.56%ETH−0.34%DXY+0.05%VIX+6.78%

02Macro Snapshot

Mixed signals
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ
Benchmark Rates Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Fed Ratei 3.50 – 3.75 % unchanged 29 Apr 2026 17 Jun 2026 Fed funds at 3.50 to 3.75 percent signal steady policy for risk assets.
ECB Ratei 2.00 % unchanged 16 Apr 2026 4 Jun 2026 ECB rate at 2.00 percent supports European risk assets and lower EUR yields.
SOFRi 3.56 % −3 bp daily tomorrow SOFR at 3.56 percent down three basis points eases short-end USD funding.
IPOR USDCi 3.64 % +8 bp real-time — USDC IPOR at 3.64 percent above SOFR shows strong onchain USD leverage demand.
IPOR WETHi 1.68 % −1 bp real-time — WETH IPOR rate at 1.68 percent indicates cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei 2.37 % — real-time — ETH staking yield at 2.37 percent offers steady native return for holders.
Inflation Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CPI YoY (headline)i 3.8 % +0.6 pp 12 May 2026 10 Jun 2026 Headline CPI at 3.8 percent keeps Fed cautious on further rate cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i 2.8 % +0.1 pp 12 May 2026 10 Jun 2026 Core CPI at 2.8 percent shows easing underlying inflation pressures.
PPI YoY (headline)i 6.0 % +1.7 pp 13 May 2026 11 Jun 2026 PPI at 6.0 percent signals upstream price pressures building ahead of CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i 5.2 % +1.3 pp 13 May 2026 11 Jun 2026 Core PPI at 5.2 percent reveals persistent upstream inflation above core CPI.
Labor Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) 158.74 M jobs +115 k 8 May 2026 5 Jun 2026 Nonfarm payrolls rose 115 thousand showing moderate labor market gains.
Unemployment Ratei 4.3 % unchanged pp 8 May 2026 5 Jun 2026 Unemployment at 4.3 percent indicates rising slack prompting Fed easing.
Activity Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY) +1.4 % +0.6 pp 15 May 2026 15 Jun 2026 Industrial production up 1.4 percent year over year supports steady activity.
Retail Salesi (m/m) +0.5 % −1.4 pp 14 May 2026 17 Jun 2026 Retail sales up 0.5 percent confirm resilient consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi 52.7 +0.3 April 2026 — ISM manufacturing at 52.7 signals ongoing factory sector expansion.
ISM Services PMIi 53.6 -0.4 April 2026 — ISM services at 53.6 points to continued services sector growth.
Yield Curve Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi 47 bp — daily tomorrow Positive curve. Recession odds receding.
Sentiment Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) 63 (Greed) −3 daily tomorrow CNN Fear and Greed at 63 reflects greed in equity markets.
Crypto Fear & Greedi 28 (Fear) +1 daily tomorrow Crypto Fear and Greed at 28 shows fear creating potential opportunity.
News Sentimenti −44 (Fear) −6 every 30 min — News sentiment at negative 44 signals fear in current narratives.

03News Sentiment

Fear
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −44 to +35 · current −44 (Fear) · −6 24h
7 days ago today
Direction
bull 6% bear 94% ± 10% uncertainty
Coverage
macro 79% crypto 9% mixed 12%
What's driving today's news sentiment Top 5 · sorted by impact
−55 Bearish immediate
Crypto bridge hacked for $11 million in cross-chain exploit
A recent $11 million hack targets a crypto bridge, adding to multiple cross-chain exploits and raising security concerns across decentralized finance infrastructure.
coindesk.comconf 90% BridgesDeFi
−47 Bearish Stocks fall sharply with bond yields up amid inflation concerns, signaling crypto risk-off nasdaq.com
−37 Bearish US and Iran remain far from deal, prolonging geopolitical tension and bond market stress bloomberg.com
−18 Neutral Japan 10-Year Bond Yields Rise Above Dividend Yields, Indicating Equity Rotation Risks bloomberg.com
+6 Neutral Zelostech expands autonomous driving business to Southeast Asia and Middle East bloomberg.com

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bearish
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Only two of nine mega-caps finished Friday in the green, with MSFT leading at +3.05% and AAPL adding a modest +0.68%. The rest of the cohort sold off hard, led by INTC at -6.18%, AMD at -5.69%, and TSLA at -4.75%. NVDA's -4.42% drop ahead of its earnings this week underscores the risk-off tilt concentrated in semis and high-beta names.

AAPLApple
$300.23+0.68%
Day Range $296.52 — $303.20
P/E TTMi36.0 P/E Fwdi31.3 50-DMAi$266 200-DMAi$259 RSI(14)i76 YTDi+10.8% % from ATHi−1.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.65
MSFTMicrosoft
$421.92+3.05%
Day Range $412.92 — $428.16
P/E TTMi25.0 P/E Fwdi21.7 50-DMAi$399 200-DMAi$463 RSI(14)i58 YTDi−10.8% % from ATHi−24.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.44
GOOGLAlphabet
$396.78−1.07%
Day Range $393.18 — $399.54
P/E TTMi30.0 P/E Fwdi28.1 50-DMAi$333 200-DMAi$291 RSI(14)i70 YTDi+25.9% % from ATHi−1.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.97
AMZNAmazon
$264.14−1.15%
Day Range $260.89 — $264.35
P/E TTMi31.3 P/E Fwdi30.3 50-DMAi$237 200-DMAi$229 RSI(14)i59 YTDi+16.6% % from ATHi−5.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.27
NVDANVIDIA
$225.32−4.42%
Day Range $224.25 — $231.50
P/E TTMi45.6 P/E Fwdi27.1 50-DMAi$193 200-DMAi$186 RSI(14)i65 YTDi+19.3% % from ATHi−4.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.03
METAMeta Platforms
$614.23−0.68%
Day Range $609.31 — $621.20
P/E TTMi22.1 P/E Fwdi18.7 50-DMAi$622 200-DMAi$673 RSI(14)i46 YTDi−5.6% % from ATHi−22.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.55
TSLATesla
$422.24−4.75%
Day Range $422.00 — $434.66
P/E TTMi352.3 P/E Fwdi219.9 50-DMAi$387 200-DMAi$407 RSI(14)i58 YTDi−3.6% % from ATHi−15.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.23
INTCIntel
$108.77−6.18%
Day Range $106.02 — $110.57
P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi101.3 50-DMAi$70 200-DMAi$45 RSI(14)i62 YTDi+176.2% % from ATHi−18.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.56
AMDAMD
$424.10−5.69%
Day Range $423.48 — $439.00
P/E TTMi138.6 P/E Fwdi57.3 50-DMAi$279 200-DMAi$224 RSI(14)i67 YTDi+89.8% % from ATHi−9.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.52

04.2Indices

Bearishi
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's session closed with broad-based selling across US equity benchmarks. The Russell 2000 led losses at -2.44%, while the SOXX semiconductor index dropped -4.06%, consistent with the carnage in chip names. The S&P 500 fell -1.24%, the Nasdaq -1.54%, and the Dow -1.07%. VIX jumped 6.78% to 18.43, reflecting a meaningful bid for protection even as the index remains below the 20 threshold. Internationally, weakness was widespread: EEM fell -3.43%, FTSE -1.71%, and Hang Seng -1.30%, leaving the global equity complex (URTH -1.39%) firmly in retreat.

US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,408.50−1.24%
Day Range 7,397.50 — 7,454.85
50-DMAi6,921 200-DMAi6,780 RSI(14)i67 YTDi+8.0% % from ATHi−1.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.29
IXICNasdaq Comp.
26,225.15−1.54%
Day Range 26,097.54 — 26,460.76
50-DMAi23,566 200-DMAi22,957 RSI(14)i70 YTDi+12.9% % from ATHi−1.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.42
DJIDow Jones Ind.
49,526.17−1.07%
Day Range 49,503.57 — 49,930.26
50-DMAi47,989 200-DMAi47,458 RSI(14)i56 YTDi+2.4% % from ATHi−2.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.48
RUTRussell 2000
2,793.30−2.44%
Day Range 2,791.50 — 2,839.32
50-DMAi2,656 200-DMAi2,528 RSI(14)i53 YTDi+11.4% % from ATHi−3.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.97
SOXXSemiconductors
508.52−4.06%
Day Range 506.27 — 518.79
50-DMAi401.05 200-DMAi322.89 RSI(14)i65 YTDi+62.1% % from ATHi−4.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+3.11
Volatility & Dollar
VIXVolatility Idx
18.43+6.78%
Day Range 17.80 — 19.27
50-DMAi21.67 200-DMAi18.37 RSI(14)i48 YTDi+27.0%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
110.40+0.05%
5-day Range 110.35 — 110.77
50-DMAi111.52 200-DMAi111.41 RSI(14)i41 YTDi−0.7%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,195.37−1.71%
Day Range 10,163.56 — 10,375.73
50-DMAi10,333 200-DMAi9,877 RSI(14)i43 YTDi+2.5% % from ATHi−6.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.01
N225Nikkei 225
61,051.33−0.58%
Day Range 60,376.98 — 61,478.55
50-DMAi56,660 200-DMAi50,543 RSI(14)i57 YTDi+17.8% % from ATHi−3.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.50
HSIHang Seng
25,625.50−1.30%
Day Range 25,492.00 — 25,838.96
50-DMAi25,676 200-DMAi25,596 RSI(14)i43 YTDi−2.7% % from ATHi−8.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.01
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
199.92−1.39%
Day Range 199.53 — 200.88
50-DMAi189.49 200-DMAi184.94 RSI(14)i61 YTDi+7.2% % from ATHi−1.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.24
EEMMSCI Emerging
65.07−3.43%
Day Range 64.72 — 65.47
50-DMAi60.94 200-DMAi56.37 RSI(14)i54 YTDi+15.7% % from ATHi−4.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.18
Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst
Energy+1.12%
Tech+0.12%
Telecom+0.04%
Industrials−0.28%
Staples−0.30%
Financials−1.03%
Discretionary−1.06%
Real Estate−1.45%
Utilities−1.86%
Materials−1.91%
Healthcare−2.21%

04.3Fixed Income · US Treasuries

Offered
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

The Treasury curve was largely unchanged at Friday's close, with the 2Y at 4.0% (+2 bp), 10Y at 4.47% (+1 bp), and 30Y at 5.02% (-1 bp), keeping the 2s10s spread at +47 bp. The 10Y TIPS real yield edged up 1 bp to 2.00% while the 10Y breakeven widened 2 bp to 2.49%, suggesting the modest nominal move was split between real rates and inflation expectations rather than driven by either alone. Credit markets diverged from equities: HY OAS tightened 6 bp to 276 while IG OAS held flat at 76 bp, a signal that credit investors are not yet confirming the risk-off tone visible in stocks.

US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.00%+2 bp
5D range 3.90 — 4.00
5-day Δ+8 bp YTD Δ+53 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.47%+1 bp
5D range 4.38 — 4.47
10–2 spread+47 bp YTD Δ+28 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
5.02%−1 bp
5D range 4.95 — 5.03
5-day Δ+5 bp YTD Δ+16 bp
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.00% +1 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.49% +2 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.76% −6 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.76% 0 bp
tight · late-cycle

04.4Commodities

Mixed
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy rallied into the Friday close, with WTI crude up +2.72%, Brent +2.54%, and natural gas +2.55%, providing a notable counterpoint to the equity selloff. Precious metals moved the other way: gold slipped -0.41% to $4543.0 and silver fell -2.57% to $75.555, suggesting the bid was in real assets tied to supply dynamics rather than traditional safe havens.

CLWTI Crude
$101.56+2.72%
5D range $98.38 — $105.66
50-DMAi$96.71 200-DMAi$70.71 RSI(14)i52 YTDi+77.5%
COBrent
$106.11+2.54%
5D range $101.82 — $114.51
50-DMAi$108.11 200-DMAi$76.83 RSI(14)i46 YTDi+71.2%
NGNatural Gas
$2.82+2.55%
5D range $2.70 — $2.83
50-DMAi$2.88 200-DMAi$3.69 RSI(14)i50 YTDi0%
XAUGold
$4,543.00−0.41%
5D range $4,483.50 — $4,559.00
50-DMAi$4,671.62 200-DMAi$4,524.01 RSI(14)i39 YTDi+3.6%
XAGSilver
$75.56−2.57%
5D range $74.14 — $77.25
50-DMAi$77.07 200-DMAi$64.26 RSI(14)i45 YTDi+3.9%

04.5Crypto Assets

Mixed
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

BTC sits at $76,983.84 (-0.56%) with ETH at $2,122.67 (-0.34%) and SOL roughly flat at $85.21 (+0.05%), as total crypto market cap contracts -1.34% over the past 24 hours. The Fear and Greed index reads 28 (Fear), consistent with the negative tone. Spot ETF flows are adding pressure, with BTC seeing $-290M and ETH $-66M in the latest daily print. Perp funding remains positive (BTC +6.04% APR, ETH +4.15% APR), indicating longs are still paying to hold positions despite the drawdown. BTC dominance holds at 58.2% while DeFi TVL contracts -1.22%, reflecting a broad pullback rather than a rotation story.

BTCBitcoin
$76,983.84−0.56%
Day Range $76,709.78 — $77,414.91
50-DMAi$75,193.79 200-DMAi$81,752.66 RSI(14)i45 % from ATHi−38.9% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.05
ETHEthereum
$2,122.67−0.34%
Day Range $2,106.58 — $2,129.87
50-DMAi$2,254.32 200-DMAi$2,610.60 RSI(14)i35 % from ATHi−56.5% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.14
SOLSolana
$85.21+0.05%
Day Range $84.56 — $85.33
50-DMAi$85.78 200-DMAi$110.83 RSI(14)i44 % from ATHi−70.9% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.07
ENAEthena
$0.1050+0.53%
Day Range $0.1034 — $0.1059
50-DMAi$0.1000 200-DMAi$0.1700 RSI(14)i43 % from ATHi−93.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.99
HYPEHyperliquid
$45.87+0.82%
Day Range $45.16 — $46.84
50-DMAi$40.78 200-DMAi$34.01 RSI(14)i60 % from ATHi−22.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.51
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001709−2.23%
Day Range $0.001687 — $0.001770
50-DMAi$0.001800 200-DMAi$0.002300 RSI(14)i40 % from ATHi−80.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.37
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.54T −0.56%
58.2% of total
ETH Mcap
$256.2B −0.34%
9.7% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$321.6B −0.02%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.65T −1.34%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$66.2B +16.01%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$4.0B −13.17%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$189.6B +38.71%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$3.9B +55.45%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$83.1B −1.22%
all chains
Lending TVL
$41.4B −1.33%
money markets
DEX TVL
$13.3B −0.33%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.37%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+6.04% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+4.15% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.03 balanced
1.03× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
28 Fear
Δ +1 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.64% +0.08 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 4.04%
USDTi
3.21% −0.35 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.20%
DAIi
3.46% −0.10 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.61%
WETHi
1.68% −0.01 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.69%

04.6Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Distributing
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Spot BTC ETFs recorded $-290M in the latest daily flow and $-995M over the trailing seven days, marking a sustained redemption cycle. ETH ETFs followed with $-66M daily and $-255M weekly outflows, while SOL bucked the trend with a modest $+6M daily and $+64M weekly inflow. Corporate and institutional treasuries hold 1,226,808 BTC (5.84% of supply), 7,199,470 ETH (5.97% of supply), and 18,455,469 SOL (3.19% of supply), a substantial overhang if sentiment continues to deteriorate.

Asset Total Held USD Value % of Supply Top Public Holders
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
 1.23 M BTC $94.5 B 5.84% Strategy 819k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 40k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
 7.20 M ETH $15.3 B 5.97% BitMine Immersion 5.21M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Coinbase Global 151k · Bit Digital 140k
◎
Solana
SOL
 18.46 M SOL $1.6 B 3.19% Forward Industries 7.01M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB… Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM) 1. IBIT BlackRock $64.8 B 2. FBTC Fidelity $14.2 B 3. GBTC Grayscale $10.2 B 4. BITB Bitwise $4.7 B 5. BTC Grayscale Mini $3.4 B + 8 more Flow data as of 15 May 2026
AUM
$102.7 B
24h Flow−$290 M
7-day Flow−$995 M
YTD Flowi+$1.79 B
ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH… Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM) 1. ETHA BlackRock $6.9 B 2. ETH Grayscale Mini $1.7 B 3. ETHE Grayscale $1.7 B 4. FETH Fidelity $1.2 B 5. ETHB BlackRock $636.0 M + 5 more Flow data as of 15 May 2026
AUM
$12.7 B
24h Flow−$66 M
7-day Flow−$255 M
YTD Flowi−$486 M
SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL… Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM) 1. BSOL Bitwise $560.0 M 2. GSOL Grayscale $104.9 M 3. VSOL VanEck $16.3 M 4. SOEZ Franklin $10.1 M 5. TSOL VanEck $3.2 M + 1 more Flow data as of 14 May 2026
AUM
$694.6 M
24h Flow+$6 M
7-day Flow+$64 M
YTD Flowi+$1.21 B

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ
Asset Last Trendi Supporti Resistancei RSIi RSI Status Signal
SPX S&P 500 7,408.50 Bullish 6,921.10 7,454.85 67 Neutral Buyconf 65%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp. 26,225.15 Bullish 23,565.65 26,460.76 70 Neutral Buyconf 65%
DXY Dollar Index 110.40 USD ↓ 110.35 111.41 41 Neutral Buyconf 60%
VIX Volatility 18.43 Sideways 18.37 21.67 48 Neutral Holdconf 50%
US10Y US 10Y Yield 4.47% Yields ↑ 4.33% 4.47% 62 Neutral Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude $101.56 Bullish $96.71 $105.66 52 Neutral Buyconf 75%
XAU Gold $4,543 Sideways $4,524 $4,672 39 Neutral Holdconf 50%
BTC Bitcoin $76,984 Sideways $75,194 $81,753 45 Neutral Holdconf 50%
ETH Ethereum $2,123 Bearish $2,107 $2,254 35 Neutral Sellconf 65%

06Key Events

Next 7 days
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Three high-impact US macro releases land this week, headlined by FOMC Minutes on Wednesday evening and April Housing Starts plus Building Permits on Thursday morning. On the earnings front, NVDA reports Wednesday and WMT on Thursday, making this a pivotal week for both the semiconductor narrative and consumer spending reads. With VIX already elevated and equities closing Friday on a weak note, these catalysts have the potential to set the tone for the rest of May.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

  • Wed
    18:00 UTC · 20:00 CEST     FOMC Minutes High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Housing Starts (Apr)Est: 1.42 M · prev 1.50 M High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Housing Starts MoM (Apr)Est: -3.50 % · prev 10.80 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Initial Jobless Claims (May/16)Est: 210 K · prev 211 K Medium
1 / 1

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

  • Wed · After close NVDA — NVIDIAEPS est $1.76 (+117% YoY) · Rev est $78.4B (+78% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close WMT — WalmartEPS est $0.65 (+7% YoY) · Rev est $174.8B (+6% YoY) High
1 / 1

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Late-cyclei
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Daily reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018).

Today's read

Six of eight core indicators read warm. Equity markets sit near highs, credit spreads remain compressed, and capital is plentiful despite sticky inflation and a cooling labor market that have yet to dent investor enthusiasm.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 20 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Wait
Refreshed 18 May 2026 05:03 UTC · 07:03 CEST Sources ⓘ

Wait. Late-cycle stress is surfacing: rising yields, oil shock, and broad risk-off

Crypto leads the weekend read, and the picture is defensive. BTC sits at 76,983 with ETF outflows of $290M in 24 hours and nearly $1B over seven days. Crypto Fear & Greed at 28 (Fear) contrasts sharply with equity F&G still at 63 (Greed), a divergence that historically resolves lower for equities, not higher for crypto. News sentiment scores a stark -44, dominated by inflation-driven bond selloff headlines (per Nasdaq.com) and an $11M bridge exploit (per CoinDesk). At Friday's close, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% to 7,408 while the 30-year yield breached 5.02% and WTI hit 101.56. HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) at 276 bp remain tight, masking late-cycle fragility. TIPS real yields at 2.0% offer genuine competition to equities. PPI running at 6.0% year-over-year with core at 5.2% signals margin pressure ahead. In a late-cycle regime with sticky inflation and rising energy costs, patience pays. A VIX move above 18.43 or HY OAS widening past 325 would signal the repricing that creates real opportunity.

24h Bias
Defensive, risk-off tone persists
Equities
Wait for pullback below 7,200
Bonds
Add small at 5%+ on long end
Commodities
Hold energy, trim silver
Crypto
Wait, ETF outflows accelerating
Vol hedge
Add via VIX calls near 18.43