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Daily Market Report

Semis Crushed, Oil Surges, Defensives Lead

Live Refreshed 12 May 2026 17:04 UTC · 19:04 CEST

01Daily Summary

Mixed Signals

A sharp semiconductor selloff (INTC -10.6%, AMD -6.7%) dragged the S&P 500 down 0.9% to 7,346 while WTI crude surged 4.2% to $109.76, reigniting stagflation concerns with US CPI still at 3.81%. Credit markets stayed calm: HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) tightened 2 bp to 279 bp, and 10-year real yields eased 3 bp to 1.93%. Crypto followed equities lower, with BTC off 2% to $80,052 and total market cap shedding 2.2%. Equity Fear and Greed at 64.5 (Greed) contrasts with crypto's neutral 49, underscoring the cross-asset divergence.

S&P 500−0.90%NASDAQ−1.95%US10Y−3 bpWTI+4.16%Gold−1.06%BTC−2.04%ETH−3.10%DXY+0.05%VIX+1.03%

02Macro Snapshot

Mixed signals
Benchmark Rates Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Fed Ratei 3.50 – 3.75 % unchanged 29 Apr 2026 17 Jun 2026 Fed funds at 3.50 - 3.75 % anchors steady policy, supportive for risk assets.
ECB Ratei 2.00 % unchanged 16 Apr 2026 4 Jun 2026 ECB rate at 2.00 % aids European risk assets while limiting EUR rate upside.
SOFRi 3.60 % unchanged daily tomorrow SOFR at 3.60 % reflects stable short-end USD funding, neutral tailwind for risk assets.
IPOR USDCi 3.94 % +34 bp real-time USDC IPOR at 3.94 % (+0.34 pp vs SOFR) signals strong onchain USD leverage demand.
IPOR WETHi 1.65 % −1 bp real-time WETH IPOR at 1.65 % points to cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei 2.51 % real-time ETH staking yield at 2.51 % indicates moderate validator demand and fee revenue.
Inflation Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CPI YoY (headline)i 3.8 % +0.6 pp 12 May 2026 10 Jun 2026 CPI at 3.8 % YoY sustains Fed caution on rate cuts.
Core CPI YoYi 2.8 % +0.1 pp 12 May 2026 10 Jun 2026 Core CPI at 2.8 % YoY shows sticky inflation pressures.
Labor Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) 158.74 M jobs +115 k 8 May 2026 5 Jun 2026 NFP +115k m/m indicates cooling labor market momentum.
Unemployment Ratei 4.3 % unchanged pp 8 May 2026 5 Jun 2026 Unemployment at 4.3 % adds slack, favoring Fed rate cuts.
Activity Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY) +0.7 % −0.5 pp 16 Apr 2026 15 May 2026 Industrial production +0.7 % YoY reflects modest manufacturing strength.
Retail Salesi (m/m) +1.9 % +1.2 pp 21 Apr 2026 14 May 2026 Retail sales +1.9 % m/m signals strong consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi 52.7 +0.3 April 2026 ISM Manufacturing at 52.7 confirms factory sector expansion.
ISM Services PMIi 53.6 -0.4 April 2026 ISM Services at 53.6 signals continued services growth.
Yield Curve Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi 48 bp daily tomorrow Positive curve. Recession odds receding.
Sentiment Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) 64 (Greed) −2 daily tomorrow CNN F&G at 64 (Greed) reflects optimistic equity sentiment.
Crypto Fear & Greedi 49 (Neutral) +1 daily tomorrow Crypto F&G at 49 (Neutral) shows balanced market sentiment.
News Sentimenti +4 (Neutral) every 30 min

03News Sentiment

Neutral
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −30 to +50 · current +4 (Neutral) · 24h
7 days ago today
Direction
bull 42% bear 58% ± 13% uncertainty
Coverage
macro 55% crypto 33% mixed 12%
What's driving today's news sentiment Top 8 · sorted by impact
−48 Bearish Stocks Retreat as Oil Prices Surge and Inflation Accelerates Nasdaq News
−45 Bearish Stocks Pressured by Rising Oil Prices and Accelerating Inflation Nasdaq News
+32 Bullish Stocks Settle Higher on Strong Earnings Nasdaq News
+29 Bullish Stablecoin yield infrastructure project raises $13.5M in round led by Sky Ecosystem coindesk.com
−28 Bearish eBay Rejects GameStop’s $56 Billion Bid as ‘Neither Credible Nor Attractive’ beincrypto.com
−10 Neutral LNG Pioneer Souki Talks Energy Markets Amid Tensions Bloomberg Markets
0 Neutral Rockpoint Gets Selective on Real Estate Bets Bloomberg Markets

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bearish

Broad weakness across the mega-cap cohort today, with only 2 of 9 names in the green. INTC cratered over 10% and AMD shed nearly 7%, dragging the semiconductor complex lower, while TSLA dropped close to 5%. AAPL was the lone meaningful bright spot with a modest half-percent gain; MSFT and GOOGL both slipped more than 80 bp.

AAPLApple
$294.23+0.53%
Day Range $292.56 — $294.90
P/E TTMi35.3 P/E Fwdi30.8 50-DMAi$263 RSI(14)i73 % from ATHi−0.2% YTDi+8.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.67
MSFTMicrosoft
$409.06−0.87%
Day Range $406.74 — $415.50
P/E TTMi24.3 P/E Fwdi21.1 50-DMAi$399 RSI(14)i50 % from ATHi−26.4% YTDi−13.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.59
GOOGLAlphabet
$383.60−1.30%
Day Range $383.23 — $388.52
P/E TTMi29.0 P/E Fwdi27.5 50-DMAi$325 RSI(14)i67 % from ATHi−4.6% YTDi+21.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.97
AMZNAmazon
$263.25−2.13%
Day Range $262.63 — $267.65
P/E TTMi31.1 P/E Fwdi30.2 50-DMAi$232 RSI(14)i60 % from ATHi−5.5% YTDi+16.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.29
NVDANVIDIA
$215.73−1.69%
Day Range $214.92 — $223.75
P/E TTMi43.7 P/E Fwdi26.1 50-DMAi$190 RSI(14)i64 % from ATHi−3.6% YTDi+14.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.03
METAMeta Platforms
$599.47+0.10%
Day Range $592.65 — $603.75
P/E TTMi21.5 P/E Fwdi18.4 50-DMAi$626 RSI(14)i40 % from ATHi−24.7% YTDi−7.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.55
TSLATesla
$423.64−4.80%
Day Range $422.36 — $447.80
P/E TTMi353.5 P/E Fwdi220.0 50-DMAi$384 RSI(14)i62 % from ATHi−15.1% YTDi−3.3% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.29
INTCIntel
$115.73−10.59%
Day Range $115.00 — $127.79
P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi107.8 50-DMAi$64 RSI(14)i70 % from ATHi−12.8% YTDi+193.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.60
AMDAMD
$428.03−6.70%
Day Range $426.10 — $458.80
P/E TTMi139.8 P/E Fwdi58.5 50-DMAi$260 RSI(14)i71 % from ATHi−8.8% YTDi+91.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.55

04.2Indices

Bearishi

US equities sold off with a clear growth-over-value tilt: the Nasdaq fell nearly 2% while the Dow was essentially flat, losing just 3 bp. Small caps fared worse, with the Russell 2000 down 2.3%, and SOXX collapsed 6.7%, reflecting the semiconductor carnage visible in individual names. VIX edged up modestly to 18.57, a surprisingly contained move given the magnitude of losses in tech and semis. Overseas, the picture was mixed to slightly negative. The Nikkei managed a small gain, but the Hang Seng dipped and EM broadly underperformed with EEM off over 4%.

US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,345.93−0.90%
Day Range 7,338.54 — 7,394.37
50-DMAi6,874 200-DMAi6,759 RSI(14)i68 YTDi+7.1% % from ATHi−1.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.17
IXICNasdaq Comp.
25,760.85−1.95%
Day Range 25,739.22 — 26,190.48
50-DMAi23,275 200-DMAi22,853 RSI(14)i68 YTDi+10.9% % from ATHi−2.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.24
DJIDow Jones Ind.
49,688.19−0.03%
Day Range 49,307.66 — 49,739.62
50-DMAi47,890 200-DMAi47,357 RSI(14)i60 YTDi+2.6% % from ATHi−1.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.69
RUTRussell 2000
2,805.35−2.27%
Day Range 2,799.69 — 2,861.83
50-DMAi2,639 200-DMAi2,516 RSI(14)i56 YTDi+11.7% % from ATHi−2.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.95
SOXXSemiconductors
497.04−6.70%
Day Range 495.80 — 525.15
50-DMAi386.72 200-DMAi317.38 RSI(14)i65 YTDi+58.5% % from ATHi−6.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.83
Volatility & Dollar
VIXVolatility Idx
18.57+1.03%
Day Range 18.57 — 19.10
50-DMAi22.04 200-DMAi18.32 RSI(14)i48 YTDi+28.5%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
110.40+0.05%
5-day Range 110.35 — 110.77
50-DMAi111.52 200-DMAi111.41 RSI(14)i41 YTDi−0.7%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,253.59−0.15%
Day Range 10,152.05 — 10,271.17
50-DMAi10,371 200-DMAi9,854 RSI(14)i46 YTDi+3.2% % from ATHi−6.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.32
N225Nikkei 225
62,742.57+0.52%
Day Range 62,158.43 — 63,218.51
50-DMAi56,328 200-DMAi50,084 RSI(14)i69 YTDi+21.0% % from ATHi−0.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.69
HSIHang Seng
26,347.91−0.22%
Day Range 26,328.84 — 26,592.37
50-DMAi25,781 200-DMAi25,976 RSI(14)i55 YTDi+0.0% % from ATHi−6.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.52
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
198.93−0.97%
Day Range 198.76 — 200.10
50-DMAi188.46 200-DMAi184.38 RSI(14)i62 YTDi+6.6% % from ATHi−1.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.22
EEMMSCI Emerging
65.11−4.09%
Day Range 64.98 — 66.51
50-DMAi60.36 200-DMAi56.03 RSI(14)i56 YTDi+15.7% % from ATHi−4.4% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.40
Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst
Staples+1.28%
Healthcare+0.93%
Telecom+0.27%
Materials−0.57%
Real Estate−0.68%
Financials−0.87%
Energy−0.92%
Industrials−1.34%
Discretionary−1.52%
Tech−2.06%
Utilities−2.15%

04.3Fixed Income · US Treasuries

Bid

Treasuries caught a mild bid across the curve, with the 10Y falling 3 bp to 4.38% and the 2Y and 30Y each easing 2 bp. The 2s10s spread held at +48 bp. Decomposing the 10Y move: real yields dropped 3 bp to 1.93% while breakevens ticked up 2 bp to 2.47%, suggesting the rally was driven by growth concerns rather than any shift in inflation expectations. Credit spreads tightened marginally on both sides, with HY OAS in 2 bp to 279 and IG OAS in 1 bp to 78, signaling no contagion from the equity selloff into credit markets.

US2YiTreasury 2Y
3.90%−2 bp
5D range 3.87 — 3.95
5-day Δ+2 bp YTD Δ+43 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.38%−3 bp
5D range 4.36 — 4.45
10–2 spread+48 bp YTD Δ+19 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
4.95%−2 bp
5D range 4.94 — 5.02
5-day Δ−2 bp YTD Δ+9 bp
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
1.93% −3 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.47% +2 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.79% −2 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.78% −1 bp
tight · late-cycle

04.4Commodities

Mixed

Energy markets sent conflicting signals, with WTI rallying over 4% while Brent fell nearly 5%, a divergence worth monitoring for potential data-quality or contract-roll effects. Precious metals pulled back modestly, with gold off about 1% near $4,679 and silver tracking lower by a similar margin.

CLWTI Crude
$109.76+4.16%
5D range $103.45 — $110.47
50-DMAi$93.23 200-DMAi$69.90 RSI(14)i61 YTDi+91.9%
COBrent
$118.26−4.81%
5D range $113.89 — $124.24
50-DMAi$104.71 200-DMAi$75.95 RSI(14)i54 YTDi+90.8%
NGNatural Gas
$2.67+1.52%
5D range $2.60 — $2.70
50-DMAi$2.91 200-DMAi$3.71 RSI(14)i44 YTDi−5.3%
XAUGold
$4,678.50−1.06%
5D range $4,645.20 — $4,783.40
50-DMAi$4,700.70 200-DMAi$4,504.61 RSI(14)i48 YTDi+6.6%
XAGSilver
$84.97−1.14%
5D range $83.70 — $88.00
50-DMAi$77.06 200-DMAi$63.33 RSI(14)i65 YTDi+16.6%

04.5Crypto Assets

Bearish

Crypto sold off in sympathy with risk assets, shedding 2.2% in total market cap. BTC dropped 2% to roughly $80,050, ETH fell 3.1%, and SOL lost 3.5%, keeping BTC dominance elevated at 58.3%. Perp funding rates remain positive (BTC +7.2% APR, ETH +6.9% APR), indicating longs are still paying but without extreme crowding. The Fear and Greed index sits at 49, dead neutral, while DeFi TVL contracted 2.2% in line with spot prices. Spot ETF flows were a split decision: BTC drew a modest $27M inflow, but ETH saw $17M in outflows.

BTCBitcoin
$80,051.60−2.04%
Day Range $79,807.46 — $81,721.41
50-DMAi$74,191.19 200-DMAi$82,583.77 RSI(14)i57 % from ATHi−36.5% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.82
ETHEthereum
$2,266.88−3.10%
Day Range $2,256.64 — $2,339.40
50-DMAi$2,240.53 200-DMAi$2,655.26 RSI(14)i46 % from ATHi−53.5% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.57
SOLSolana
$93.98−3.46%
Day Range $93.58 — $97.57
50-DMAi$85.58 200-DMAi$113.46 RSI(14)i63 % from ATHi−68.0% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.65
ENAEthena
$0.1202−6.68%
Day Range $0.1196 — $0.1288
50-DMAi$0.1000 200-DMAi$0.1800 RSI(14)i57 % from ATHi−92.1% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.42
HYPEHyperliquid
$39.91−5.03%
Day Range $39.80 — $42.02
50-DMAi$40.51 200-DMAi$34.06 RSI(14)i42 % from ATHi−32.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.53
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001943−7.48%
Day Range $0.001936 — $0.002124
50-DMAi$0.001800 200-DMAi$0.002400 RSI(14)i51 % from ATHi−77.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.26
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.60T −2.04%
58.3% of total
ETH Mcap
$273.6B −3.10%
10.0% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$320.9B +0.06%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.75T −2.20%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$90.2B −18.58%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$6.7B +17.92%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$253.9B −14.61%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$4.2B −22.34%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$84.7B −2.24%
all chains
Lending TVL
$42.4B −1.45%
money markets
DEX TVL
$13.3B −1.07%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.51%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+7.21% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+6.85% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
0.87 large traders short
1.15× shorts vs longs
Crypto F&Gi
49 Neutral
Δ +1 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.94% +0.34 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.99%
USDTi
3.46% −0.14 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.50%
DAIi
3.64% +0.04 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.62%
WETHi
1.65% −0.01 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.66%

04.6Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Accumulating

Public-company BTC treasuries now aggregate over 1.23 million BTC (5.86% of supply, roughly $98.4B), while ETH holdings represent nearly 6% of supply. Spot ETF flows over the past week favored BTC (+$127M) and SOL (+$62M), while ETH continued to bleed with a cumulative $8M in net outflows. Today's single-day picture echoed that pattern: BTC and SOL each attracted $27M, ETH lost $17M.

Asset Total Held USD Value % of Supply Top Public Holders
Bitcoin
BTC
1.23 M BTC $98.4 B 5.86% Strategy 819k · XXI 44k · Metaplanet 40k · MARA Holdings 39k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
7.20 M ETH $16.3 B 5.97% BitMine Immersion 5.21M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Coinbase Global 151k · Bit Digital 140k
Solana
SOL
18.46 M SOL $1.7 B 3.19% Forward Industries 7.01M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · Sharps Technology 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB… Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM) 1. IBIT BlackRock $65.8 B 2. FBTC Fidelity $14.2 B 3. GBTC Grayscale $10.2 B 4. BITB Bitwise $4.7 B 5. BTC Grayscale Mini $3.4 B + 8 more Flow data as of 11 May 2026
AUM
$103.7 B
24h Flow+$27 M
7-day Flow+$127 M
YTD Flowi+$2.81 B
ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH… Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM) 1. ETHA BlackRock $7.4 B 2. ETH Grayscale Mini $1.7 B 3. ETHE Grayscale $1.7 B 4. FETH Fidelity $1.2 B 5. ETHB BlackRock $653.0 M + 5 more Flow data as of 11 May 2026
AUM
$13.1 B
24h Flow−$17 M
7-day Flow−$8 M
YTD Flowi−$248 M
SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL… Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM) 1. BSOL Bitwise $560.0 M 2. GSOL Grayscale $104.9 M 3. VSOL VanEck $16.9 M 4. SOEZ Franklin $10.4 M 5. TSOL VanEck $3.2 M + 1 more Flow data as of 11 May 2026
AUM
$695.4 M
24h Flow+$27 M
7-day Flow+$62 M
YTD Flowi+$1.15 B

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed
Asset Last Trendi Supporti Resistancei RSIi RSI Status Signal
SPX S&P 500 7,345.93 Bullish 6,873.97 7,394.37 68 Neutral Buyconf 65%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp. 25,760.85 Bullish 23,275.07 26,190.48 68 Neutral Buyconf 65%
DXY Dollar Index 110.40 USD ↓ 110.35 111.41 41 Neutral Buyconf 60%
VIX Volatility 18.57 Sideways 18.32 22.04 48 Neutral Holdconf 50%
US10Y US 10Y Yield 4.38% Yields ↑ 4.30% 4.45% 54 Neutral Sell bondsconf 75%
CL WTI Crude $109.76 Bullish $93.23 $110.47 61 Neutral Buyconf 75%
XAU Gold $4,678 Sideways $4,505 $4,701 48 Neutral Holdconf 50%
BTC Bitcoin $80,052 Sideways $74,191 $82,584 57 Neutral Holdconf 50%
ETH Ethereum $2,267 Sideways $2,241 $2,655 46 Neutral Holdconf 50%

06Key Events

Next 7 days

The week's macro calendar is front-loaded and inflation-heavy: April CPI prints (headline and core, both MoM and YoY) land today, followed by PPI MoM tomorrow and Retail Sales on Wednesday. Seven high-impact US releases in total and zero mega-cap earnings on deck, so price action this week will be driven almost entirely by the data tape.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST
    Retail Sales MoM (Apr)Est: 0.50 % · prev 1.70 % High
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST
    Core PPI MoM (Apr)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.10 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST
    Initial Jobless Claims (May/09)Est: 205 K · prev 200 K Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST
    Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Apr)Est: 0.60 % · prev 1.90 % Medium
  • Fri
    13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST
    Industrial Production MoM (Apr)Est: 0.30 % · prev -0.50 % Medium
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST
    PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY (Apr)Est: 3.70 % · prev 3.60 % Low
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST
    Core PPI YoY (Apr)Est: 4.30 % · prev 3.80 % Low
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST
    PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Apr)Est: 0.30 % · prev 0.20 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST
    Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Apr)Est: 0.10 % · prev 0.60 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST
    Retail Sales YoY (Apr)Est: 3.30 % · prev 4 % Low
  • Fri
    13:15 UTC · 15:15 CEST
    Industrial Production YoY (Apr)Est: 0.40 % · prev 0.70 % Low
1 / 2

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

No mega-cap earnings on the watchlist this week.

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Mid-cyclei

Daily reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018). Counterintuitive by design — green = fear/cheap = attractive entry; red = euphoria/expensive = poor entry.

Today's read

The economy is expanding modestly with ISM readings above 50 and the Fed easing, but sticky inflation at 3.81% CPI, softening labor markets, and cautious lending standards create a mixed picture that prevents a clean late-cycle or early-cycle call.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 23 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Hold

Hold. Rotation under the surface, but oil spike and sticky CPI cloud the path

Mid-cycle conditions call for selectivity, and today's tape reinforces that discipline. The S&P 500 slipped 0.9% as tech bore the brunt: INTC down 10.6% and AMD down 6.7%, while Consumer Defensive and Healthcare led. That is classic late-rotation behavior inside a mid-cycle expansion. WTI's 4.2% surge to $109.76 is the real risk. With headline CPI already at 3.81% and 10-year breakevens ticking up to 2.47%, an energy-driven inflation impulse could stall the Fed's easing path from 3.50-3.75%. HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) at 279 bp remain tight, signaling no stress yet, but equity F&G at 64.5 (Greed) offers no contrarian cushion. Crypto sits at neutral sentiment (F&G 49) with BTC funding near zero and a short-biased long/short ratio of 0.87. That is not fearful enough to warrant adding. On-chain DeFi yields (IPOR USDC at 3.94%) barely beat SOFR at 3.6%. Wait for April retail sales Wednesday before repositioning. A miss there would create a better entry.

24h Bias
Defensive lean; wait for data
Equities
Hold; trim tech into strength
Bonds
Hold duration; 30Y at 4.95% fair
Commodities
Avoid chasing oil at $110
Crypto
Hold BTC; wait for fear below 30
Vol hedge
Add small VIX calls near 18.5