• Driver:Commodity reflation dominated Friday. WTI +4.2% and silver +6.9% repriced inflation expectations ahead of Monday's US CPI release.
• Cross-asset:Equities modestly higher, VIX ticked up, credit spreads flat, USD softened slightly. Crypto drifted lower with neutral sentiment.
• Sector rotation:Energy (+1.6%) and Real Estate (+1.5%) led. Utilities (-3.9%) and Consumer Defensive (-1.0%) lagged, a 5.5-point best-to-worst gap.
• Forward bias:US April CPI on Monday is the pivotal catalyst. A hot print could unwind the equity bid and pressure rate-sensitive sectors further.

Friday's mega-cap session was a semiconductor story. NVDA led the cohort at +3.15%, with AMD (+2.14%) and INTC (+1.43%) riding the same bid, while the software and advertising names dragged: GOOGL fell 1.58%, MSFT lost 1.16%, and META slipped nearly a percent. Only four of nine names closed green, leaving the group's net tone split between chip strength and broad mega-cap softness.

US equity benchmarks closed Friday with a mild risk-on lean. The S&P 500 added 0.35% and the Nasdaq 0.40%, while the Dow was essentially flat. Small caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 up 0.75%, and SOXX surged 2.09%, reinforcing the semiconductor bid visible in mega-cap tech. VIX ticked higher by 4.3% to 17.93, a notable divergence from the equity gains that suggests hedging demand is building even as spot grinds up. Globally the picture was mixed: FTSE gained 0.36% and EM edged higher, but the Nikkei slipped nearly half a percent.

The Treasury curve bear-steepened modestly on Friday, with 2Y and 10Y yields both rising 5 bp to 3.92% and 4.41% respectively while the 30Y added only 3 bp to 4.97%, leaving the 2s10s spread at +49 bp. The move was almost entirely real: 10Y TIPS real yield climbed 2 bp to 1.96% while 10Y breakevens held flat at 2.45%, signaling tighter real financial conditions rather than any shift in inflation pricing. Credit markets were calm. HY OAS widened a trivial 2 bp to 281 and IG OAS was unchanged at 79, showing no stress spillover from the rates move.

WTI crude rallied over 4% on Friday while Brent moved sharply in the opposite direction, dropping nearly 5%, a rare and wide divergence that may reflect contract-specific positioning or regional supply dynamics. Silver was the standout commodity, surging almost 7% to $86.42, while gold held steady near $4,736 with a fractional gain.

Crypto is drifting sideways into the new week. BTC sits just above $81,400, off roughly 1% over the past 24 hours, while ETH underperforms at $2,332 (down 1.6%) and SOL is essentially flat near $97. BTC dominance holds at 58.2% and total market cap is barely changed, consistent with the neutral 48 reading on the Fear and Greed index. Perp funding remains positive but modest (BTC ~5% APR, ETH ~3.7% APR), indicating longs are paying but without the crowding that typically precedes sharp liquidation cascades. Friday's spot ETF print was a headwind: BTC saw $146M in net outflows while ETH drew a negligible $4M inflow.

Public-company BTC treasuries now aggregate over 1.23 million BTC (5.86% of supply, roughly $100B at current prices), with ETH holdings at 7.2 million tokens (5.97% of supply) and SOL at 18.5 million (3.19%). Spot ETF flows diverged sharply on the latest day: BTC funds shed $146M while ETH and SOL drew small inflows of $4M and $6M respectively. The seven-day picture is more constructive, with BTC netting +$632M, ETH +$70M, and SOL +$39M, suggesting Friday's BTC outflow was a single-session reversal rather than a trend shift.

This week's macro calendar is front-loaded with inflation data. Monday brings April CPI (core and headline MoM plus YoY) at 12:30 UTC, followed by PPI on Tuesday and Retail Sales on Thursday, totaling eight high-impact US releases across the week. No mega-cap earnings are scheduled, so price action will hinge almost entirely on the inflation and consumer spending prints.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

No mega-cap earnings on the watchlist this week.