• Driver:No high-impact US data today. Sticky CPI at 3.32% and Fed funds at 3.50-3.75% keep rate-cut expectations firmly on hold.
• Cross-asset:Equities steady, VIX calm at 16.9, BTC firm near $81.9K with strong ETF inflows. Curve spread at +50bp signals no recession panic.
• Sector rotation:Tech and Basic Materials lead (+1.1% each). Utilities (-1.0%) and Consumer Cyclical (-0.8%) lag, a growth-over-defense tilt.
• Forward bias:Lean cautiously constructive near-term. No US catalysts in 48 hours, but narrow leadership and soft fundamentals cap upside conviction.

The mega-cap cohort split 5-of-9 green, but the headline movers sat outside the usual MAG7 core. INTC surged nearly 13% and AMD added 4%, powering the semiconductor pocket, while AAPL led the mega-caps proper with a 2.7% gain. NVDA, META, and TSLA all finished in the red, keeping the cohort's center of gravity only modestly positive.

US equities posted a broad risk-on session, with the Russell 2000 leading at +1.75% and the Nasdaq close behind at +1.03%. The standout was SOXX, ripping 4.5% higher and underscoring the semiconductor bid visible in the single-stock data. VIX eased about 2.7% to 16.92, consistent with the rally but still not signaling complacency. Globally, the tone was constructive: FTSE gained 1.8%, Hang Seng added 1.2%, and EEM outperformed developed markets with a 2% advance. The dollar softened modestly, down roughly 23 bps on DXY, providing a mild tailwind for risk assets and EM.

Yields rose across the curve, with the 2-year up 7 bp to 3.95% and the 10-year adding 6 bp to 4.45%, nudging the 30-year above the 5% handle at 5.02%. The 2s10s spread held at +50 bp, so the selloff was roughly parallel rather than a steepening or flattening impulse.

Energy caught a bid across the board: WTI and Brent rose roughly 1.5% and 1.8% respectively, while natural gas surged over 7%. Precious metals rallied hard alongside, with gold up 2.6% to $4,688 and silver outpacing at +4%, suggesting a simultaneous inflation-hedge and weaker-dollar bid.

Crypto tracked the broader risk-on tone, with total market cap up 1.4% and BTC, ETH, and SOL all posting gains between 1.2% and 2.9%. BTC dominance sits at 58.6%, holding its structural lead even as SOL outperformed on the day. Perpetual funding rates remain negative for both BTC and ETH (roughly -4.5% and -7.2% annualized), indicating the derivatives market is still positioned short or hedged despite spot strength. Spot ETF inflows were robust: $467M into BTC products and $98M into ETH, providing a clear demand anchor. The Fear and Greed index at 46 reflects lingering caution, consistent with a market grinding higher against skeptical positioning.

Public-company BTC treasuries now total roughly 1.23 million coins (5.9% of supply, valued near $100.6B), while ETH holdings span 7.2 million tokens at about $17.1B. Spot ETF flows reinforced the accumulation theme: BTC products pulled in $467M on the day and $1.52B over the trailing seven days, with ETH adding $148M over the same window. SOL ETF flows remain nascent at $2M daily and $4M weekly, but the product category continues to broaden.

The marquee risk cluster lands next Tuesday, May 12, when April CPI prints (core MoM, core YoY, headline MoM, and headline YoY) all drop at 12:30 ET, followed the next morning by PPI MoM. With 10 high-impact US macro releases on the calendar, the inflation data will dominate positioning and could reprice the rate path quickly. On the earnings side, MCD reports tomorrow (May 7) as the lone mega-cap name on deck this week.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction