Daily Market Report

Fear Dominates As Chips Slide, Crypto Bleeds

Updated 05:00 & 17:00 UTC · Next refresh in …

01Daily Summary

Mixed Signals
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Intel fell nearly 8% at Friday's close, dragging the Technology sector down 1.46% and exposing a chip-led fault line beneath a flat S&P 500 finish at 7,412. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund products shed $240 million in a single session, and the crypto Fear and Greed index sits at 26 (Fear) this weekend, even as Bitcoin holds just above its 200-week moving average at $64,451. Gold at $4,070.80 and WTI crude at $84.38 signal commodity resilience, while a bearish news-sentiment score of -27 and both equity and crypto fear gauges in negative territory keep the overall read firmly mixed.

S&P 500+0.05%NASDAQ−0.64%US10Y+4 bpWTI+1.14%Gold+0.51%BTC+0.22%ETH+0.58%DXY+0.02%VIX−0.64%

02Macro Snapshot

Mixed signals
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Benchmark Rates Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Fed Ratei 3.50 – 3.75 % unchanged 17 Jun 2026 29 Jul 2026 The 3.50 to 3.75 percent fed funds band keeps policy restrictive for risk assets.
ECB Ratei 2.25 % unchanged 23 Jul 2026 10 Sep 2026 The 2.25 percent ECB rate eases European risk assets.
BoJ Ratei 1.00 % +25 bp 16 Jun 2026 31 Jul 2026 The 1.00 percent BoJ rate keeps the JPY carry trade attractive.
SOFRi 3.64 % +2 bp daily tomorrow SOFR at 3.64 percent with a 2 bp rise signals tighter short end funding.
IPOR USDCi 3.51 % −13 bp real-time — USDC IPOR at 3.51 percent below SOFR points to deleveraging pressure.
IPOR WETHi 1.81 % +0 bp real-time — WETH IPOR at 1.81 percent shows cooling onchain ETH leverage demand.
ETH Ratei 2.04 % — real-time — ETH staking yield at 2.04 percent offers native return on holding ETH.
US Inflation Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
TruCPI-US (headline)i 2.09 % -0.02 pp daily tomorrow Truflation at 2.09 percent runs cooler than the official CPI print.
CPI YoY (headline)i 3.5 % −0.7 pp 14 Jul 2026 12 Aug 2026 Headline CPI at 3.5 percent keeps the Fed cautious on cuts.
CPI YoY (core)i 2.6 % −0.3 pp 14 Jul 2026 12 Aug 2026 Core CPI at 2.6 percent shows persistent inflation above target.
PCE YoY (headline)i 4.1 % +0.3 pp 25 Jun 2026 30 Jul 2026 PCE at 4.1 percent runs above the Fed 2 percent target.
PCE YoY (core)i 3.4 % +0.1 pp 25 Jun 2026 30 Jul 2026 Core PCE at 3.4 percent remains sticky well above the 2 percent target.
PPI YoY (headline)i 5.5 % −0.5 pp 15 Jul 2026 13 Aug 2026 PPI at 5.5 percent signals upstream inflation that may feed into CPI.
PPI YoY (core)i 4.7 % +0.1 pp 15 Jul 2026 13 Aug 2026 Core PPI at 4.7 percent indicates persistent upstream price pressures.
Euro Area Inflationi Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Euro Area 2.7 % −0.4 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 Euro area HICP at 2.7 percent sits above the ECB 2 percent target.
Romania 9.2 % −0.5 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 Romania HICP at 9.2 percent reflects fiscal tightening and tax hikes.
Bulgaria 5.2 % −1.0 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 Bulgaria HICP at 5.2 percent aligns with euro convergence criteria post 2026 entry.
Poland 3.0 % −0.4 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 Poland HICP at 3.0 percent keeps the central bank on hold.
Germany 2.4 % −0.3 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 Germany HICP at 2.4 percent anchors the euro area average near target.
France 2.0 % −0.8 pp 17 Jul 2026 19 Aug 2026 France HICP at 2.0 percent sits exactly at the ECB target.
Labor Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Nonfarm Payrollsi (m/m) 158.98 M jobs +57 k 2 Jul 2026 7 Aug 2026 NFP at plus 57 thousand signals labor market cooling.
Unemployment Ratei 4.2 % −0.1 pp 2 Jul 2026 7 Aug 2026 Unemployment at 4.2 percent indicates rising slack in the labor market.
Activity Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
Industrial Productioni (YoY) +1.1 % −0.4 pp 17 Jul 2026 18 Aug 2026 Industrial production up 1.1 percent YoY shows modest manufacturing strength.
Retail Salesi (m/m) +0.2 % −0.8 pp 16 Jul 2026 14 Aug 2026 Retail sales up 0.2 percent m/m point to steady consumer demand.
ISM Manufacturing PMIi 53.3 +0.6 June 2026 — ISM
ISM Services PMIi 54.0 +0.4 June 2026 —
Yield Curve Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
US 10Y2Y Spreadi 34 bp — daily tomorrow Positive curve. Recession odds receding.
Sentiment Latest Δ vs Prior Released Next Release Implication
CNN Fear & Greedi (Equity) 39 (Fear) unchanged daily tomorrow
Crypto Fear & Greedi 26 (Fear) −1 daily tomorrow
News Sentimenti −27 (Fear) −11 every 30 min —

03News Sentiment

Fear
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Last 7 days · overall score (EWMA-smoothed) range −46 to +36 · current −27 (Fear) · −11 24h
7 days ago today
Direction
bull 0% bear 100% ± 15% uncertainty
Coverage
macro 68% crypto 0% mixed 32%
What's driving today's news sentiment Top 1 · sorted by impact
−20 Bearish short-term
Chip sector sell-off pressures Nasdaq and broader equity market, impacting crypto tech-sensitive segments
Nasdaq 100 index fell 1.27% on chip stock sell-off dragging broader market; S&P 500 down slightly and Dow Jones up modestly amid mixed equity signals.
nasdaq.comconf 85% Market-WideAlt-L1s

04.1Tech Equitiesi

Bearish
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's tech cohort split sharply, with only 3 of 9 names closing higher. Apple led the gainers at +3.53%, while Intel was the session's standout loser at -7.89%, followed by Advanced Micro Devices at -3.29% and the SOXX semiconductor index off 4.40%. Meta Platforms and Tesla also shed ground, leaving the group's aggregate tone decidedly negative beneath Apple's headline pop.

AAPLApple
$333.02+3.53%
1D Range $321.62 — $334.37
1M Range $275.15 — $333.74
P/E TTMi40.0 P/E Fwdi34.4 50-DMAi+8.7% 200-DMAi+20.7% RSI(14)i65 YTDi+22.9% % from ATHi−0.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.04
MSFTMicrosoft
$381.70+0.03%
1D Range $380.65 — $389.03
1M Range $352.83 — $402.29
P/E TTMi22.6 P/E Fwdi19.6 50-DMAi−4.4% 200-DMAi−12.5% RSI(14)i45 YTDi−19.3% % from ATHi−31.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.70
GOOGLAlphabet
$319.74+0.65%
1D Range $317.33 — $324.18
1M Range $317.69 — $370.92
P/E TTMi15.9 P/E Fwdi21.4 50-DMAi−12.3% 200-DMAi−1.3% RSI(14)i32 YTDi+1.5% % from ATHi−21.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.14
AMZNAmazon
$232.11−0.66%
1D Range $231.34 — $234.95
1M Range $227.01 — $254.96
P/E TTMi27.5 P/E Fwdi23.1 50-DMAi−6.9% 200-DMAi−1.1% RSI(14)i38 YTDi+2.5% % from ATHi−16.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.48
NVDANVIDIA
$206.84−0.92%
1D Range $204.81 — $211.91
1M Range $192.53 — $212.50
P/E TTMi31.5 P/E Fwdi23.0 50-DMAi−1.1% 200-DMAi+7.2% RSI(14)i51 YTDi+9.5% % from ATHi−12.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.12
METAMeta Platforms
$595.19−1.80%
1D Range $594.60 — $609.98
1M Range $542.87 — $681.31
P/E TTMi21.4 P/E Fwdi16.9 50-DMAi−1.8% 200-DMAi−6.7% RSI(14)i44 YTDi−8.5% % from ATHi−25.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−0.20
TSLATesla
$313.03−2.08%
1D Range $306.51 — $322.96
1M Range $313.03 — $425.30
P/E TTMi265.4 P/E Fwdi133.4 50-DMAi−22.2% 200-DMAi−24.5% RSI(14)i28 YTDi−28.5% % from ATHi−37.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.02
INTCIntel
$92.32−7.89%
1D Range $91.58 — $101.74
1M Range $92.32 — $139.63
P/E TTMin/a P/E Fwdi51.2 50-DMAi−19.9% 200-DMAi+40.4% RSI(14)i37 YTDi+134.4% % from ATHi−35.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.16
AMDAMD
$521.95−3.29%
1D Range $518.01 — $549.00
1M Range $495.76 — $580.91
P/E TTMi170.0 P/E Fwdi38.6 50-DMAi+2.6% 200-DMAi+70.8% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+133.6% % from ATHi−10.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.23

04.2Recent IPOs

Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
SPCXSpaceX
IPO'd 12 Jun 2026
$115.07−2.68%
1D Range $111.40 — $116.74
1M Range $115.07 — $170.86
Mkt Capi$1.50T IPO-day Vali$2.10T IPO-to-Datei−28.5% Floati365.9M · 4.9% P/E TTMin/a P/E FwdiFY27E · 213x RSI(14)i35% from ATHi−49.0%

04.3Indices

Mixedi
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's US session was a study in divergence: the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46% and the S&P 500 barely held positive at +0.05%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.64% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.35%, with semiconductor weakness dragging the SOXX down 4.40%. Internationally, the Nikkei dropped 2.73% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM) fell 1.97%, while the FTSE added 0.91%. Breadth tells a nuanced story: the equal-weight RSP is outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 by 2.67 percentage points year-to-date (+10.74% vs +8.07%), meaning the average S&P 500 stock is actually ahead of the index, and Mag7 concentration is not the dominant driver this year. VIX closed at 18.58, modestly lower on the day, while the MOVE index rose nearly 4%, signaling renewed bond-market volatility.

US Equity Benchmarks
SPXS&P 500
7,411.98+0.05%
1D Range 7,396.53 — 7,460.98
1M Range 7,354.03 — 7,575.39
50-DMAi−0.8% 200-DMAi+5.8% RSI(14)i45 YTDi+8.1% % from ATHi−2.7% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.61
IXICNasdaq Comp.
24,975.82−0.64%
1D Range 24,918.09 — 25,222.14
1M Range 24,975.82 — 26,281.61
50-DMAi−4.2% 200-DMAi+4.3% RSI(14)i39 YTDi+7.5% % from ATHi−8.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.35
DJIDow Jones Ind.
51,947.25+0.46%
1D Range 51,682.36 — 52,118.19
1M Range 51,711.65 — 53,055.91
50-DMAi+1.0% 200-DMAi+6.2% RSI(14)i49 YTDi+7.4% % from ATHi−2.1% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.57
RUTRussell 2000
2,930.00−0.35%
1D Range 2,927.49 — 2,956.88
1M Range 2,930.00 — 3,024.37
50-DMAi0.0% 200-DMAi+10.0% RSI(14)i45 YTDi+16.8% % from ATHi−3.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.62
SOXXSemiconductors
527.01−4.40%
1D Range 522.22 — 548.00
1M Range 521.81 — 640.76
50-DMAi−7.4% 200-DMAi+32.6% RSI(14)i43 YTDi+68.0% % from ATHi−19.5% Sharpe(1Y)i+2.08
Risk & Breadth Gauges
RSPiS&P 500 Eq-Wt
213.57+0.78%
1D Range 212.23 — 214.47
1M Range 210.31 — 215.06
50-DMAi+1.7% 200-DMAi+7.3% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+10.7% vs SPX YTDi+2.7pp Cap-weight sharei-33%
VIXiVolatility Idx
18.58−0.64%
1D Range 17.41 — 19.05
1M Range 15.03 — 18.89
50-DMAi+7.2% 200-DMAi−0.7% RSI(14)i55 YTDi+28.0%
MOVEiMOVE Index
70.88+3.99%
5D Range 68.16 — 77.77
1M Range 65.39 — 77.77
50-DMAi−1.5% 200-DMAi−1.7% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+13.7%
DXYTrade-Wt. USD
113.49+0.02%
5D Range 113.47 — 114.04
1M Range 112.57 — 114.67
50-DMAi+0.7% 200-DMAi+1.5% RSI(14)i50 YTDi+2.1%
World Markets
FTSEFTSE 100
10,736.23+0.91%
1D Range 10,599.10 — 10,738.83
1M Range 10,472.45 — 10,736.23
50-DMAi+2.5% 200-DMAi+5.5% RSI(14)i62 YTDi+7.9% % from ATHi−1.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.73
N225Nikkei 225
64,611.15−2.73%
1D Range 64,201.03 — 65,720.81
1M Range 64,141.12 — 72,366.34
50-DMAi−3.4% 200-DMAi+14.3% RSI(14)i42 YTDi+24.7% % from ATHi−10.8% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.97
HSIHang Seng
24,963.23−0.98%
1D Range 24,812.50 — 25,031.34
1M Range 22,671.87 — 25,210.82
50-DMAi+1.3% 200-DMAi−3.1% RSI(14)i57 YTDi−5.2% % from ATHi−11.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.36
Global Equity Baskets
URTHMSCI World
200.88+0.13%
1D Range 200.58 — 202.16
1M Range 197.36 — 204.75
50-DMAi−0.7% 200-DMAi+5.2% RSI(14)i46 YTDi+7.7% % from ATHi−2.6% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.53
EEMMSCI Emerging
63.33−1.97%
1D Range 63.24 — 64.15
1M Range 63.29 — 68.41
50-DMAi−5.2% 200-DMAi+5.4% RSI(14)i41 YTDi+12.6% % from ATHi−11.2% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.32
Valuations
CAPE 10iShiller P/E
40.5Overvalued
+0.10% today
Long-run mean17.4 Median16.1 All-time high44.2 (Dec 1999) % from ATHi−8.4%
Trailing P/EiS&P 500 (TTM)
28.5Overvalued
+0.10% today
Long-run mean16.2 Median15.1 All-time high123.7 (May 2009)
Buffett IndicatoriCorp Equities / GDP
218.1Overvalued
 
Long-run mean86.1 Median72.1 All-time high228.7 (Q4 2025) % from ATHi−4.6%
Sector Rotationi 11 GICS sectors · today's % change · sorted best to worst
Real Estate+2.25%
Materials+1.28%
Staples+1.02%
Healthcare−0.17%
Telecom−0.34%
Energy−0.37%
Financials−0.58%
Industrials−0.78%
Utilities−0.89%
Discretionary−1.04%
Tech−1.46%

04.4US Treasuries & Credit

Offered
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The Treasury curve bear-flattened at the front end on Friday: the 2-year yield rose 6 basis points to 4.37% and the 10-year added 4 bp to 4.71%, compressing the 2s10s spread to +34 bp. The move was driven by real rates, with the 10-year TIPS yield up 4 bp to 2.43% while the 10-year breakeven edged 2 bp lower to 2.26%, pointing to tighter financial conditions rather than inflation re-pricing. Credit spreads widened on the day, with high-yield OAS up 9 bp to 277 bp and investment-grade OAS adding 1 bp to 79 bp, a modest but directionally consistent risk-off signal.

US2YiTreasury 2Y
4.37%+6 bp
5D Range 4.18 — 4.37
1M Range 4.07 — 4.37
5-day Δ+21 bp YTD Δ+90 bp
US10YiTreasury 10Y
4.71%+4 bp
5D Range 4.55 — 4.71
1M Range 4.38 — 4.71
10–2 spread+34 bp YTD Δ+52 bp
US30YiTreasury 30Y
5.17%+2 bp
5D Range 5.06 — 5.17
1M Range 4.86 — 5.17
5-day Δ+8 bp YTD Δ+31 bp
Fiscal
US Debt & Servicing
US Debt & Servicing
Total Public Debti
$39.68T +$41.1B (1d)
+8.0% YoY
Annual Interest (gross)i
$1.35T +11.4% YoY
gross · avg rate 3.41%
Rate & Rollover Risk
Wtd Avg Rate on Debti
3.41% +0.10pp YoY
on total interest-bearing debt
Maturing < 1 Yeari
25.6%
~$10.15T · refinancing-risk gauge
Macro Bond
Real Rates & Credit
Real Rates & Inflation Expectations
10Y TIPS Reali
2.43% +4 bp
10Y nominal − inflation expectations
10Y Breakeveni
2.26% −2 bp
market-implied 10Y CPI
Credit Spreads
HY OASi
2.77% +9 bp
ICE BofA US HY
IG OASi
0.79% +1 bp
tight · late-cycle

04.5US Inflation · Daily

Heating
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Truflation's daily read sits at 2.09% year-over-year, up 19 basis points over the past month and trending warmer, with transport adding 81 basis points to the headline. The 1.44 percentage point gap below the official BLS CPI print of 3.5% reflects the leading nature of the daily series versus the lagged monthly survey.

2.09%
Daily −0.02 pp
1-mo +0.19 pp
1-yr +0.07 pp
Daily Data By
About the number
Truflation rebuilds US CPI every day from 13M+ live prices across 30+ sources (rents, groceries, fuel, and more), weighted to the official basket. Non-revised, so a print is never re-stated later.
Truflation data as of 2026-07-25
vs BLS CPI official 3.5% (Jun 2026, monthly · lagged) −1.44 ppbelow official print next BLS CPI: 12 Aug 2026

Index Components

12 basket categories · sorted by weight
Category Inflation (YoY)i Contributioni Trend (1-mo)i
Housing
23.1% of basket
 +0.15%
+0.03 pp
Flat +0.04 pp
Transport
19.8% of basket
 +4.10%
+0.81 pp
Heating +0.85 pp
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages
15.2% of basket
 +2.10%
+0.32 pp
Heating +0.80 pp
Health
8.8% of basket
 +0.71%
+0.06 pp
Cooling −0.29 pp
Household Durables & Daily Use Items
7.1% of basket
 +3.20%
+0.23 pp
Cooling −0.19 pp
Utilities
6.0% of basket
 +2.56%
+0.15 pp
Cooling −0.28 pp
Recreation & Culture
5.5% of basket
 +2.79%
+0.15 pp
Heating +0.20 pp
Clothing & Footwear
3.8% of basket
 +5.01%
+0.19 pp
Cooling −0.60 pp
Other
3.4% of basket
 +3.17%
+0.11 pp
Heating +0.09 pp
Communications
3.3% of basket
 -2.47%
−0.08 pp
Cooling −2.42 pp
Education
2.3% of basket
 +2.69%
+0.06 pp
Cooling −0.77 pp
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.8% of basket
 +4.25%
+0.08 pp
Heating +0.40 pp

04.6Japan Rates · JGB Curve

Offered
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The JGB curve steepened further at Friday's close, with the 10-year yield rising 3 bp to 2.78% and the 30-year sitting at 3.93%, while the 2-year holds at 1.50% against the Bank of Japan's policy rate of 1.00%. The 2s10s spread of +128 bp reflects a wide term premium that keeps yen-carry funding costs anchored at the short end while duration risk accumulates further out the curve.

JP2YiJGB 2Y
1.50%+5 bp
5D Range 1.44 — 1.50
1M Range 1.38 — 1.50
5-day Δ+6 bp YTD Δ+30 bp
JP10YiJGB 10Y
2.78%+3 bp
5D Range 2.71 — 2.78
1M Range 2.61 — 2.87
10–2 spread+128 bp YTD Δ+66 bp
JP30YiJGB 30Y
3.93%+3 bp
5D Range 3.86 — 3.93
1M Range 3.76 — 4.01
5-day Δ+13 bp YTD Δ+54 bp

04.7Commodities

Bullish
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Energy prices firmed on Friday, with Brent crude rising 2.33% and WTI up 1.14%, while natural gas added 1.82%. Precious metals also advanced, with Gold (XAU) closing at $4,070.80 (+0.51%) and Silver at $58.906 (+1.47%), extending the metals complex's bid.

CLWTI Crude
$84.38+1.14%
5D Range $80.03 — $84.38
1M Range $69.60 — $84.38
50-DMAi−4.0% 200-DMAi+11.2% RSI(14)i58 YTDi+47.5%
COBrent
$86.99+2.33%
5D Range $81.23 — $86.99
1M Range $68.53 — $86.99
50-DMAi−2.2% 200-DMAi+6.3% RSI(14)i60 YTDi+40.4%
NGNatural Gas
$2.80+1.82%
5D Range $2.75 — $2.83
1M Range $2.73 — $3.34
50-DMAi−8.4% 200-DMAi−24.7% RSI(14)i40 YTDi−0.7%
XAUGold
$4,070.80+0.51%
5D Range $4,024.00 — $4,085.20
1M Range $3,992.10 — $4,209.00
50-DMAi−3.3% 200-DMAi−11.3% RSI(14)i46 YTDi−7.2%
XAGSilver
$58.91+1.47%
5D Range $57.36 — $59.29
1M Range $56.19 — $63.52
50-DMAi−10.6% 200-DMAi−16.0% RSI(14)i45 YTDi−19.1%

04.8Crypto Assets

Bullish
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Bitcoin is trading at $64,450.99, up 0.22% over 24 hours, with Ethereum at $1,884.07 (+0.58%) and Solana at $74.98 (+0.74%), as total crypto market cap gains 0.85% on the day. BTC dominance holds at 56.5%, reflecting continued relative strength in the largest asset. Spot ETF flows are a headwind: BTC ETFs saw $240 million in outflows and ETH ETFs $71 million on the latest day, though the 7-day window is net positive for both. Perpetual funding rates are positive but undemanding (BTC at +5.31% APR, ETH at +1.85% APR), and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 26 (Fear), suggesting positioning remains cautious rather than crowded.

BTCBitcoin
$64,450.99+0.22%
1D Range $64,310.72 — $64,538.00
1M Range $58,523.93 — $66,516.18
50-DMAi+2.1% 200-DMAi−11.0% 200-WMAi($63,323.05) +1.8% RSI(14)i51 % from ATHi−48.8% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.33
ETHEthereum
$1,884.07+0.58%
1D Range $1,873.23 — $1,887.45
1M Range $1,569.41 — $1,933.54
50-DMAi+8.5% 200-DMAi−12.5% 200-WMAi($2,478.28) −24.0% RSI(14)i57 % from ATHi−61.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.24
SOLSolana
$74.98+0.74%
1D Range $74.43 — $75.17
1M Range $70.39 — $82.28
50-DMAi+2.1% 200-DMAi−15.4% 200-WMAi($107.77) −30.4% RSI(14)i47 % from ATHi−74.4% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.52
ENAEthena
$0.0861−2.10%
1D Range $0.0853 — $0.0882
1M Range $0.0711 — $0.0901
50-DMAi+7.6% 200-DMAi−21.7% RSI(14)i55 % from ATHi−94.3% Sharpe(1Y)i−1.74
HYPEHyperliquid
$58.52+0.69%
1D Range $58.11 — $58.66
1M Range $57.42 — $71.29
50-DMAi−8.8% 200-DMAi+31.5% RSI(14)i41 % from ATHi−22.0% Sharpe(1Y)i+1.06
PUMPPump.fun
$0.001814+0.62%
1D Range $0.001765 — $0.001822
1M Range $0.001351 — $0.002024
50-DMAi+13.4% 200-DMAi−4.5% RSI(14)i57 % from ATHi−78.9% Sharpe(1Y)i+0.28
Crypto Market
Macro Indicators
Market Caps & Dominance
BTC Mcapi
$1.29T +0.22%
56.5% of total
ETH Mcap
$227.4B +0.58%
9.9% of total
Stablecoin Mcap
$309.7B −0.04%
circulating supply
Total Crypto Mcap
$2.29T +0.85%
global market cap
Trading Volumes (24h)
CEX Volume (spot)
$38.2B −9.72%
24h · CoinGecko aggregate
DEX Volume (spot)
$4.7B −28.33%
24h · DefiLlama all chains
CEX Volume (perp)
$84.3B −11.85%
24h · derivatives exchanges
Hyperliquid (perp)
$1.3B −16.83%
24h · 230+ markets
DeFi Activity
Global DeFi TVL
$75.8B +0.56%
all chains
Lending TVL
$40.2B +0.63%
money markets
DEX TVL
$11.4B +0.72%
liquidity pools
ETH Staking APR
2.04%
Lido stETH base rate
Leverage & Sentiment
BTC Fundingi
+5.31% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
ETH Fundingi
+1.85% APR longs pay
8h · Binance perp
BTC L/S Ratioi
1.61 large traders long
1.61× longs vs shorts
Crypto F&Gi
26 Fear
Δ −1 vs yesterday · 0-100
IPOR Rates
USDCi
3.51% −0.13 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.74%
USDTi
3.21% −0.43 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.21%
DAIi
3.95% +0.31 pp vs SOFR
24h avg 3.95%
WETHi
1.81% −0.00 pp vs avg
24h avg 1.81%

04.9Crypto Treasuries & Spot ETF Flows

Distributing
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Friday's spot ETF flows were negative across the board: BTC saw $240 million in outflows, ETH $71 million, and SOL $1 million. Zooming out to the 7-day window, the picture reverses, with BTC at +$34 million, ETH at +$104 million, and SOL at +$9 million, indicating Friday's redemptions are a single-day event within a broadly constructive weekly trend. Corporate treasury holdings remain substantial, with 1,285,045 BTC (6.12% of supply) and 7,788,049 ETH (6.45% of supply) held across tracked entities.

Asset Total Held USD Value % of Supply Top Public Holders
₿
Bitcoin
BTC
 1.29 M BTC $82.9 B 6.12% Strategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
Ξ
Ethereum
ETH
 7.79 M ETH $14.7 B 6.45% BitMine Immersion 5.78M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎
Solana
SOL
 19.34 M SOL $1.5 B 3.32% Forward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Public-company treasuries3 assets
₿BitcoinBTC
$82.9 B
1.29 M BTC
% of supply6.12%
Top public holdersStrategy 844k · Twenty One Capital 44k · Metaplanet 43k · MARA Holdings 35k · Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company 30k
ΞEthereumETH
$14.7 B
7.79 M ETH
% of supply6.45%
Top public holdersBitMine Immersion 5.78M · SharpLink 869k · The Ether Machine 497k · Bit Digital 158k · Coinbase Global 150k
◎SolanaSOL
$1.5 B
19.34 M SOL
% of supply3.32%
Top public holdersForward Industries 7.55M · DeFi Development Corp. 2.22M · Upexi 2.17M · SkyAI Inc (formerly Sharps Technology) 2.08M · Solana Company 2.06M
Spot ETF Flows
Source: Farside Investors · AUM via FMP
BTC 13 funds · IBIT, FBTC, BITB… Top 5 of 13 funds (by AUM) 1. IBIT BlackRock $47.4 B 2. FBTC Fidelity $10.2 B 3. GBTC Grayscale $8.6 B 4. BTC Grayscale Mini $3.8 B 5. BITB Bitwise $2.4 B + 8 more Flow data as of 24 Jul 2026
AUM
$76.9 B
24h Flow−$240 M
7-day Flow+$34 M
YTD Flowi−$5.16 B
ETH 10 funds · ETHA, ETHB, FETH… Top 5 of 10 funds (by AUM) 1. ETHA BlackRock $5.4 B 2. ETH Grayscale Mini $1.6 B 3. ETHE Grayscale $1.5 B 4. FETH Fidelity $750.9 M 5. ETHB BlackRock $538.0 M + 5 more Flow data as of 24 Jul 2026
AUM
$10.1 B
24h Flow−$71 M
7-day Flow+$104 M
YTD Flowi−$1.14 B
SOL 6 funds · BSOL, VSOL, FSOL… Top 5 of 6 funds (by AUM) 1. BSOL Bitwise $611.6 M 2. GSOL Grayscale $96.5 M 3. VSOL VanEck $14.3 M 4. SOEZ Franklin $8.3 M 5. TSOL VanEck $3.1 M + 1 more Flow data as of 22 Jul 2026
AUM
$733.8 M
24h Flow−$1 M
7-day Flow+$9 M
YTD Flowi−$31 M

04.10Smart Money Positioning

Trimming
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The biggest 24-hour add was Bitget Token (BGB), with tracked wallets adding +$87K on the day to a $94.4M position across 4 wallets. The biggest trim was Worldcoin (WLD), where 22 wallets reduced exposure by $108K over 24 hours despite a positive 7-day and 30-day trend. Overall net change across the cohort was -$49K, a near-flat session.

Total tracked$849.0M
Tokens tracked1510 majors + 5 watchlist
Net change 24h-$49K
Data by
Paid per call x402by
Largest holdings10 tokens · $846.8M held
# Token · what it is Held · wallets Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. Mkt cap
1
AETHWETHEthereum
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
$186.5M
3 wallets
 +$34K -$1.26M -$6.48M $4.41B
2
UNIEthereum
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
$150.0M
26 wallets
 -$59K +$105K -$926K $2.30B
3
LITEthereum
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
$128.0M
4 wallets
 +$69K +$494K +$275K $524.4M
4
ONDOEthereum
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
$115.3M
13 wallets
 +$58K +$35K +$123K $1.89B
5
BGBEthereum
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
$94.4M
4 wallets
 +$87K -$12K +$4K $1.17B
6
WLDEthereum
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
$73.0M
22 wallets
 -$108K +$4.29M +$2.53M $1.26B
7
WLFIEthereum
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
$41.8M
1 wallet
 -$56K -$30K +$27K $1.77B
8
AXS_OLDEthereum
$23.6M
18 wallets
 +$0 building building $486.3M
9
MORPHOEthereum
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
$17.1M
5 wallets
 -$75K -$54K +$686K $1.27B
10
USTBEthereum
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
$16.9M
6 wallets
 +$1 -$1.20M -$3.73M $820.9M
1AETHWETHEthereum
$186.5M
3 wallets
Aave v3 receipt token for supplied WETH (ETH exposure)
24h+$34K 7d-$1.26M
2UNIEthereum
$150.0M
26 wallets
Uniswap: largest decentralized exchange (DEX)
24h-$59K 7d+$105K
3LITEthereum
$128.0M
4 wallets
Litentry (Heima): decentralized identity aggregation
24h+$69K 7d+$494K
4ONDOEthereum
$115.3M
13 wallets
Ondo Finance: tokenized US Treasuries (real-world assets)
24h+$58K 7d+$35K
5BGBEthereum
$94.4M
4 wallets
Bitget Token: utility token of the Bitget exchange
24h+$87K 7d-$12K
6WLDEthereum
$73.0M
22 wallets
Worldcoin: proof-of-personhood identity for the AI era
24h-$108K 7d+$4.29M
7WLFIEthereum
$41.8M
1 wallet
World Liberty Financial: Trump-affiliated DeFi protocol
24h-$56K 7d-$30K
8AXS_OLDEthereum
$23.6M
18 wallets
24h+$0 7dbuilding
9MORPHOEthereum
$17.1M
5 wallets
Morpho: DeFi lending optimizer
24h-$75K 7d-$54K
10USTBEthereum
$16.9M
6 wallets
Superstate USTB: tokenized short-term US Treasury fund
24h+$1 7d-$1.20M
Small-cap watch5 tokens · $2.2M held
# Token · what it is Held · wallets Δ 24hⓘHow this is measured. Each day we record how many tokens the cohort holds, then value the change in quantity at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed; small day-to-day moves stay grey. 24h vs yesterday's snapshot. Δ 7dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 7d vs the snapshot 7 days ago. Δ 30dⓘHow this is measured. Change in the cohort's token holdings, valued at today's price (net of price). Green = added, red = trimmed. 30d vs the snapshot 30 days ago. Mkt cap
1
PENGUSolana
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
$1.3M
11 wallets
 -$4K -$213 +$26K $396.3M
2
USELESSSolana
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
$404.3K
6 wallets
 +$1K +$1K +$2K $58.4M
3
PUMPSolana
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
$198.7K
9 wallets
 +$610 +$79K -$868K $722.4M
4
DRVEthereum
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
$162.1K
10 wallets
 -$13 -$28 -$646 $114.5M
5
PEARArbitrum
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
$129.3K
2 wallets
 -$870 -$1K -$115K $8.0M
1PENGUSolana
$1.3M
11 wallets
Pudgy Penguins: NFT-brand memecoin
24h-$4K 7d-$213
2USELESSSolana
$404.3K
6 wallets
Useless Coin: Solana memecoin
24h+$1K 7d+$1K
3PUMPSolana
$198.7K
9 wallets
Pump.fun: memecoin launchpad token
24h+$610 7d+$79K
4DRVEthereum
$162.1K
10 wallets
Derive: on-chain options and structured products
24h-$13 7d-$28
5PEARArbitrum
$129.3K
2 wallets
Pear Protocol: on-chain pair-trading perps
24h-$870 7d-$1K

05Technical Dashboard

Mixed
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ
Asset Last Trendi Supporti Resistancei RSIi RSI Status Signal
SPX S&P 500 7,411.98 Sideways 7,005.73 7,472.01 45 Neutral Holdconf 50%
IXIC Nasdaq Comp. 24,975.82 Sideways 23,943.10 26,077.95 39 Neutral Holdconf 50%
DXY Dollar Index 113.49 USD ↑ 112.65 114.04 50 Neutral Sellconf 75%
VIX Volatility 18.58 Sideways 17.34 18.72 55 Neutral Holdconf 50%
US10Y US 10Y Yield 4.71% Yields ↑ 4.52% 4.71% 68 Neutral Sell bondsconf 65%
CL WTI Crude $84.38 Sideways $75.90 $87.86 58 Neutral Holdconf 50%
XAU Gold $4,071 Bearish $4,024 $4,210 46 Neutral Sellconf 75%
BTC Bitcoin $64,451 Sideways $63,107 $72,407 51 Neutral Holdconf 50%
ETH Ethereum $1,884 Sideways $1,736 $2,153 57 Neutral Holdconf 50%

06Key Events

Next 7 days
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

The week ahead is front-loaded with market-moving risk: Thursday, July 30 brings a simultaneous release of Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and Personal Income at 12:30 UTC, and a Fed press conference the prior evening on July 29 sets the policy tone. Eleven mega-cap earnings reports are on deck, headlined by Visa (V) and Coca-Cola (KO) on Monday, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Procter and Gamble (PG) on Tuesday, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun)Est: 1.60 % · prev -4.50 % High
  • Tue
    14:00 UTC · 16:00 CEST     CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)prev 91.20 High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jun)Est: 0.10 % · prev 0.30 % High
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)Est: 2.30 % · prev 2.10 % High
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Jun)Est: 0.90 % · prev 1.30 % Medium
  • Tue
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Goods Trade Balance Adv (Jun)Est: -98 B · prev -105.9 B Medium
  • Tue
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Goods Trade Balance (Jun)prev -105.9 B Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Price Index MoM (Jun)Est: -0.10 % · prev 0.40 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25)Est: 206 K · prev 187 K Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Price Index YoY (Jun)Est: 3.70 % · prev 4.10 % Medium
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     GDP Price Index QoQ (Q2)Est: 3.70 % · prev 3.60 % Medium
  • Tomorrow
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (Jun)Est: 1.70 % · prev -4.60 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Prices QoQ (Q2)Est: 4.30 % · prev 4.40 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jun)Est: 3.20 % · prev 3.40 % Low
  • Thu
    12:30 UTC · 14:30 CEST     PCE Prices QoQ (Q2)Est: 4.30 % · prev 4.60 % Low
1 / 3

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction

  • Tue · After close V — VisaEPS est $3.22 (+8% YoY) · Rev est $11.4B (+12% YoY) High
  • Tue · After close KO — Coca-ColaEPS est $0.92 (+6% YoY) · Rev est $13.2B (+5% YoY) High
  • Wed · After close MSFT — MicrosoftEPS est $4.21 (+15% YoY) · Rev est $87.6B (+15% YoY) High
  • Wed · After close META — Meta PlatformsEPS est $7.13 (−0% YoY) · Rev est $60.2B (+27% YoY) High
  • Wed · After close PG — Procter & GambleEPS est $1.43 (−3% YoY) · Rev est $21.4B (+2% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close AAPL — AppleEPS est $1.88 (+20% YoY) · Rev est $108.8B (+16% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close AMZN — AmazonEPS est $1.81 (+8% YoY) · Rev est $196.7B (+17% YoY) High
  • Thu · After close MA — MastercardEPS est $4.77 (+15% YoY) · Rev est $9.1B (+12% YoY) High
  • Fri · After close XOM — ExxonMobilEPS est $3.60 (+120% YoY) · Rev est $110.4B (+39% YoY) High
  • Fri · After close CVX — ChevronEPS est $5.55 (+214% YoY) · Rev est $63.3B (+43% YoY) High
  • Sat · After close BRK-B — Berkshire HathawayEPS est $5 (−13% YoY) · Rev est $96.5B (−2% YoY) High
1 / 2

07Howard Marks' Market Cycle Indicators

Mid-cyclei
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

A reading of the framework from Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks, 2018), reassessed about every two weeks.

Today's read

Capital Markets, Lenders, Terms, Capital, and Yield Spreads all read warm - reflecting open financing windows, covenant-lite dominance, and tight spreads - while Outlook, Interest Rates, and Investors lean cold, with AAII bearish sentiment running above historical norms and real rates still meaningfully positive.

View full cycle assessment — 9 indicators · 15 cited sources →

08Daily Alpha

Add Selectively
Refreshed 26 Jul 2026 05:02 UTC · 07:02 CEST Sources ⓘ

Add selectively. Fear in crypto and equities opens pockets; broad risk still stretched

This weekend's dominant stories are bearish: a high-profile exchange account hack (per Binance Square) is rattling crypto security confidence, Australia is escalating tariff friction with Washington (per Bloomberg), and a chip-sector selloff drove Intel down 7.89% at Friday's close while Technology shed 1.46% - the worst sector on the day. Real Estate led at +2.25%, a spread of 3.7 percentage points that signals late-cycle rotation away from growth and toward defensives. The mid-cycle framework is internally split: financing conditions remain open and spreads tight (HY OAS - high-yield option-adjusted spreads - at 277 basis points), but investor sentiment is cold, with both the crypto Fear and Greed index at 26 (Fear) and the equity equivalent at 39.4. Bitcoin spot at 64,451 sits just 1.78% above its 200-week moving average - a historically meaningful support. Bitcoin ETF outflows of 240 million dollars in 24 hours are noise against a positive seven-day trend. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.43% makes long bonds genuinely competitive. Broad equity adds are hard to justify with trailing price-to-earnings at 28.52 versus a 16.23 long-run mean; selectivity is the only honest answer.

24h Bias
Cautious; news bearish, flows negative
Equities
Hold; trim Technology, add Real Estate dips
Bonds
Add small at 30Y 5.17%; real yield attractive
Commodities
Hold gold; add silver on pullbacks
Crypto
Add small Bitcoin near 200-week average
Vol hedge
Hold; VIX at 18.58, MOVE rising