Geopolitical Shock Hits Equities, Fear Spikes

• Driver:US military strikes on Iran triggered an oil spike to $95 WTI and broad equity selling across global markets.
• Cross-asset:Equities fell sharply; crude surged; gold softened; crypto prices rose modestly but ETF flows turned deeply negative; DXY firmed.
• Bonds & rates:US 30-year yield at 5.01%; 2s10s spread 40bp; 10-year real yield 2.20%; breakeven 2.34%; HY OAS (high-yield credit spreads) 278bp, up 3bp; IG OAS flat at 75bp; IPOR DAI rate 6.82%.
• Sentiment:Crypto Fear and Greed at 12 (Extreme Fear); equity Fear and Greed 27.6 (Fear); VIX 22.22; news sentiment score -38 (Bearish Bias); Bitcoin long/short ratio 1.13.
• Forward bias:ECB rate decision and press conference today; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment and UK GDP tomorrow. Regime flips if Middle East tensions de-escalate or oil reverses.

The mega-cap tech cohort is under broad pressure today, with only Apple in positive territory at +0.35% against eight names in the red. Advanced Micro Devices leads the selloff at -4.86%, followed by Tesla at -3.80% and Nvidia at -3.73%, signaling concentrated pain in the semiconductor and AI-hardware names. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are all off between 1.5% and 2.5%, making this a broad-based tech retreat rather than an isolated story.

US equities are selling off sharply across the board, with the S&P 500 down 1.62%, the Nasdaq off 1.98%, and the Dow shedding 1.87%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) is the standout laggard at -3.67%, consistent with the chip-heavy damage visible in tech. The VIX has surged 11.83% to 22.22, confirming that today's move is accompanied by a genuine pickup in hedging demand rather than a quiet drift lower. On breadth, the cap-weighted S&P 500 YTD return of +5.96% now trails the equal-weight RSP at +7.09%, a gap of -1.13 percentage points in favor of the average stock; this is a modest reverse-concentration signal where the broader market has actually outperformed the Mag7-heavy index year-to-date. World markets are mixed: FTSE and Nikkei each added +0.27% while Hang Seng slipped -0.85%, and global benchmarks URTH and EEM are both lower by 1.47% and 1.76% respectively, suggesting the US risk-off tone is the dominant driver today.

Treasuries are catching a modest bid as equities sell off, with the 10-year yield easing 3 basis points to 4.53% and the 2-year down 2 basis points to 4.13%, leaving the 2s10s spread at +40 basis points. The 30-year holds above the psychologically significant 5% level at 5.01%, down just 2 basis points, keeping long-end duration costs elevated. Real rates are barely moved, with the 10-year TIPS yield off 1 basis point to 2.20% while the 10-year breakeven ticked up 1 basis point to 2.34%, suggesting the marginal flight-to-quality bid is real-rate driven rather than an inflation repricing. Credit spreads are leaking wider on the high-yield side, with HY OAS adding 3 basis points to 278 basis points while IG OAS holds flat at 75 basis points, a mild risk-off signal that has not yet broadened into investment-grade.

No JGB curve data is available for today's session. The lead cannot be constructed from the provided inputs for this section.

Energy prices are holding up modestly, with WTI crude and Brent both marginally higher (+0.72% and +0.17% respectively) and natural gas adding +1.64%, providing a mild counterpoint to the broader risk-off session. Precious metals are giving back ground, with Gold (XAU) slipping 0.73% to $4,103.10 and Silver retreating 1.09% to $64.04, suggesting some liquidation pressure even in traditional safe-haven assets.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are posting gains that stand in contrast to the equity selloff, with BTC up 2.22% to $62,582.07, Ethereum up 1.73% to $1,652.71, and Solana leading at +3.01% to $65.03, lifting total crypto market cap by approximately +1.80% on the day. BTC dominance sits at 56.3%, indicating the rally is BTC-led rather than a broad altcoin rotation. The macro sentiment backdrop, however, is deeply cautious: the Crypto Fear and Greed Index registers 12 (Extreme Fear), and spot ETF flows are negative on both BTC (-$214M) and ETH (-$36M) for the latest day, with BTC's 7-day ETF flow running at -$705M. Perpetual funding rates are split, with BTC funding positive at +4.25% APR (longs paying) while ETH funding is negative at -2.16% APR (shorts paying), a divergence that reflects uncertain directional conviction. DeFi TVL is essentially flat at -0.20% over 24 hours, offering no incremental on-chain demand signal.

Pre-IPO perp marks on Hyperliquid are running an average of +12.03% above their oracle anchors, with Anthropic at +13.30% and OpenAI at +12.81% as the largest contributors by absolute premium, and SpaceX at +9.98%.

Sector-thematic equity baskets

Institutional crypto treasury holdings remain substantial, with tracked entities holding 1,277,540 BTC (approximately $80.1B, 6.08% of supply), 7,555,330 ETH (approximately $12.5B, 6.26% of supply), and 18,457,162 SOL (approximately $1.2B, 3.18% of supply). Spot ETF flows are under pressure on the BTC side, with the latest day showing -$214M and the 7-day cumulative at -$705M, while ETH has managed a small 7-day net positive of +$19M despite a -$36M day. SOL ETF flows are negligible in both directions.

The dominant event on deck this week is the FOMC decision on June 17, which brings the rate decision, updated economic projections, and Fed Chair press conference in a single session. Retail Sales for May (June 17) and Housing Starts for May (June 16) will provide the last major data inputs before the Fed speaks. On the earnings front, Adobe (ADBE) reports today, June 11, as the lone mega-cap name on the calendar this week.

U.S. Macro Releases — FMP economic calendar (filtered)

Earnings — mega-cap reports drive index direction